Hoth

If you get a clean phase, absolutely possible. the +PNA and block would certainly argue for it in that event.

If you look at the GOES16 northern hemisphere water vapor, our northern stream looks like it's about to nosedive off a cliff. You can really see the squeeze of the rising PNA and the block taking shape. http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=global-northernhemi-08-48-0-100-1&checked=map

Somewhere up in Litchfield or the Berks might still be in the game.

Yeah, no bueno with the ongoing power issues. The tree damage is pretty remarkable. I have a few neighbors that had trees come through the roof like you did. Arbor vitae, cedars, white pines and old maples for the loss.

Yeah, I'm confident we get it. The Euro has been too far southeast in the midrange with almost all our storms this winter. I could see one more big move northwest with a better phase and then it'll lock in.

Man, there are a lot of EPS members that would be SNE slaughtering.

The cure for that is almost worse than the disease.

If EPS continue to be well west, we can get cautiously excited. Also, Euro has been southeast with almost all nor'easters this season and has trended NW with time.

Lol keep safe search on!

GEFS is cause for priapism among NE weenies. Geez.

I like the idea of a last minute correction like that one. That was a classic "not happening, James" system where spacing and other subtle problems looked to skunk a great opportunity, but then it came roaring back in one modeling cycle and ushered in three weeks of epicosity. I agree with you that the n/s vort could well be underdone given its source region. We've seen these things trend stronger on a few occasions this year.

"It's the new future." Said during every bubble ever. Remember when they were euphorically calling for Dow 100,000 in 1999?

Just wow.

How are you arriving at your projected price? What do you use as a valuation method? Blockchain as a technology is interesting, but Bitcoin as a currency or reliable store of value seems flawed. This screams bubble to me.

We spoiled.

Actually just found this old series of stills from after the storm a mile or so from my hood. Winter wonderland.

Great post. Thanks for the rehash.

New Haven area. Picked up a quick 15 or 16 on top of the already robust pack, but had blinding thundersnow for a few hours overnight. Probably more memorable because the models failed so badly and were projecting 4-8 sloppy inches.

This was a fun one. Big positive bust and some of the heaviest snow I've ever seen. Jan '11 was great. Never thought I'd see it exceeded, especially not just four years later.

Great storm, but most incredible and horrifying subsidence near PVD I've ever seen. Toaster bath stuff.

You wouldn't have any saved radar images of the 2011 norlun would you? Think it was around 1/7 or 1/8. That was a fun event down here.

I remember the quick hitter that dropped 14" or so, and the disappointment of the march storm flipping to sleet/freezing rain after about 10". Bulletproof stuff though.

Avant, a few items, largely piecemeal. 1) Do you know of any peer-reviewed literature out there that provide a percentage of warming that is directly attributable to Man’s activities? I’ve never seen anyone offer a quantitative breakdown or range. 2) The article you posted above states that the earth is even more sensitive to carbon dioxide than originally thought. Why then, since carbon emissions have been rising almost exponentially for decades with the rapid development of BRIC nations, has temperature maintained a more or less linear rate of increase? (Some might say there’s been a pause). Shouldn’t such sensitivity and strong correlation suggest we should have observed rapid temperature increase for some time? 3) You say emotional appeals are effective. Quite true. Propagandists throughout history, from Sam Adams to Joseph Goebbels, would vehemently agree with you. But if you have to resort to half-truths and hyperbolic claptrap, it almost argues that the science itself isn’t compelling. Hyperbole has no place in any field purporting to be scientific. Science requires a dispassionate, empirical approach wherein hypotheses are proposed, tested, refined, altered or rejected. Open debate with opposing viewpoints is healthy and essential for that refinement or rejection process. As Einstein said, “No amount of experimentation can prove me right, but a single experiment can prove me wrong.” 4) To say the “science is settled” assumes the whiff of religious dogma. How was it settled? Was an ecumenical council convened, as at Nicaea, to agree upon doctrine, orthodoxy, heresy, etc.? Are we to accept the council’s findings as a matter of faith? Suppression of opposing views is another vestige of religion. If such methods had survived the Middle Ages, we might still have a geocentric model of the Universe. Science is never settled. In some sense, there aren’t even laws, just models describing behavior, some of which work very well. Newton’s Laws worked perfectly for centuries, until they were found to break down in quantum mechanical and general relativistic scenarios. Climate science remains in its infancy, as does our understanding of Earth’s staggeringly complex self-regulatory mechanisms. The interplay of every forcing and feedback mechanism is not well understood, and there may be other factors at work that remain to be discovered. So how does one put one’s faith in temperature projections for decades in the future, when even small initiation errors or incorrect assumptions compound dramatically as you step forward in time? Moreover, how can you expect the average lay person, with no interest in climate or weather, to believe long-term predictions when their weather forecasts bust all the time? Think of the public’s mistrust last year after the Euro’s epic bust during the blizzard in New York. That was the best weather model on Earth, using massive computing power and superior data assimilation, busting with a twenty four hour lead-time. By the way, I am not seeking to vitiate climate research. I believe Earth has warmed, that Man likely plays some role, and that we should firmly support incentivizing clean energy and conservation. I merely want to decouple the science from unhealthy extremism on both sides, the existential threat spewing alarmists and the anarchist hokesters alike.

What a storm that was. I would've given anything to have been back home in Hamden for that one. It was awesome in Boston, too, but my mother called excitedly during that mega band to say it was hailing and she couldn't even see across the street. I told her it was called sleet, but apparently she was actually technically correct haha. Wish she'd measured the snowfall rate. Bet it was 4-5"/hr. And who could forget that NAM run that popped like 60"+ accumulations? Ah, memories. It's been an amazing few years in the storm department. I never thought I'd see a period like late December '10 through January '11 again. I mean, Boxing Day, 9" norlun, two feet on Jan 12th, and 15" Jan 27 is tough to beat. And who could imagine that we'd have Feb '13, the crazy March '13 firehose, the frigid zero degree storms of '14 and the endless paradisiacal glory that was late January through mid-Feb '15? I've actually lost track of how many 12"+ snows I've seen over the last five years. Last winter sort of became a blur with the mega-SWFE and the 100 hour thing and the ocean effect enhancement and mood flakes every day. Glory days, no question.