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Hoth

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Everything posted by Hoth

  1. Not as tucked. No surprise whatsoever. Good luck Ginx on east. Hope you guys pull a 3 footer. Don't forget the bread and milk.
  2. It's fun to think that 25 years ago tonight, some the folks on this forum were probably doing this exact same thing...just without easy inter-web access to all these nifty tools.
  3. Yes, this would be closer to Feb '13 where you're getting that maximum rate of intensification nearby and maxing out the dynamics.
  4. Well, I've certainly been fooled before, but using my proprietary in-house, hi-res, fine mesh modeling system--aka squinting at Euro charts and water vapor loops--I think the Euro is OTL with the northern stream. On wv it looks west of the Euro depiction to me, and that block also looks to put up a pretty good fight. I think this drops in on a more north/south trajectory, but of course these could well just be weenie musings.
  5. Yeah it all depends on that schizo interaction with the northern stream. Does it kick or cuddle?
  6. It has been remarkably scattershot if you look back over several days. Several out past Bermuda, only to pop up to NS in the next run.
  7. There has certainly been a bifurcation evident in the ensembles. You have one bigger camp phased, deep and tucked, and another weak, unphased and east. Not much middle ground there, so it all hinges on whether it phases properly or not. Higher than usual bust potential with this IMO.
  8. Yeah, still probably struggling with the nuances of the interaction with the n/s. The GFS isn't exactly known for handling these things with aplomb.
  9. Toss. I expect a wider precip field with the n/s interaction. I think the u-wind anomalies also argue more precip than shown.
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