Hoth

Steve, awesome pics. Which storm caused the '07 surf?

Fun for Nantucket verbatim. That low in the Great Lakes would make this potentially a little more interesting. No reason to get aroused yet though.

Cape Cod permanently relocated to the Bay of Fundy.

Yeah, I was speaking in the immediate timeframe. Up to 180 and 913mb at 11. Beast is bombing out. Incidentally, this thing has been remarkably free from ERC interruption. I know it's instant weenie tag material to suggest such a thing, but where does one find data to support annular structure? I just see the thick eye wall with little powerful outer banding, no secondary wind maxima, relatively little cirrus outflow compared to many storms of this intensity, no disruption at all while passing over water with lower heat content yesterday and axisymmetric appearance as interesting. No idea what else goes into that determination though.

Jesus, 175 sustained, gusts over 200. And every indication that its not done strengthening yet.

Yeah, that is one scary looking cane. Insane eye wall and no sign of stronger outer banding usurping it. I would be shitting a brick if I lived on the mid-coast of Florida too.

Looks like NHC finally pulled the trigger.

No indication of secondary wind maxima on the recon flights that I've seen. Just a smooth climb in windspeed right up to the eye wall. Fairly axisymmetric appearance with that perfect donut hole eye. Not going to invoke the "A word", but it certainly has some characteristics in common. That may be lending stability to the system. Irma was similar. Went a good day and half at high end cat 5 before undergoing ERC. Anyway, a freaking incredible system.

This cane is HAWT.

Yeah I'd certainly peg it at at least a mid-level 4. Maybe 135-140. Maybe higher.

Euro just south of the benchmark at 192. Plenty of time to back it NW a bit and get some good snows west of the river. Rain for James.

That was a Donna track displaced a bit east. Not buying it, but we watch all the same.

Best of luck to you.

They should just cut that model off at like 120 hours.

I have a hypothetical and I wonder if I can get some opinions. My great uncle lives in Sarasota just off the beach. His house is at best a few feet above sea level. If Dorian ends up plowing straight through central Florida and emerges into the Gulf around the Tampa area, Sarasota would have a strong onshore wind. Does anyone here believe it could be strong enough to pose a coastal flooding threat? I'm inclined to think this is a stretch, but I really don't know.

Euro pulling a Matthew, but displaced about 100 miles west. Capital T trouble.

Not if we nuke Dory first! Send in the B2s! Defend Mar-a-Lago to the last man!

Mike Ventrice noted there is a suppressive Kelvin wave passing over Africa the next few weeks. I know little about such things, but he says that one would expect it to tamp down any wave activity. Who knows.

Sandysurvivor has lashed himself to an I-beam and is patiently awaiting for the world to blow away.

What we call hell, he calls home.

Ok, but we wait for the CRAS for confirmation before we really freak out.

Wait until we get a mega CME. Goodbye grid for a long long time.

I didn't realize we had a cat 5 Cape Verde storm sitting off the Bahamas. Tell me more.

Could be, but I'm more familiar with them from looking at post mortem papers about storms like Hazel and '38.

Until I see a strong cut-off low in the Ohio Valley, I'll sell.