Hoth

It's just a fantasy. It's not the real thing. Sometimes a fantasy is all you need.

Now first case in VT.

My understanding is that it's one of the defining symptoms of COVID19. That's how it was initially discovered in China, as an abnormal pneumonia that didn't fit any known disease profile. Along with fever, dry cough and muscular weakness, pneumonia appears to be pretty common, especially as the disease progresses into the second or third week. It's probably the primary reason a high percentage of people require hospitalization. The infection gets deep in the lungs and produces abnormally dense sputum that can't be cleared by coughing. That drives hypoxia and organ failure without intensive care in more serious cases. There have been cases requiring intensive manual ventilation for upwards of a month to keep them alive. There was even a lung transplant in China because a patient developed severe fibrosis. Anyway, here's an early study of patients in Wuhan from the Lancet: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext

If a young person gets pneumonia from this and the hospital capacity has been taxed to the point of breaking, mortality will increase in that group too. Just not enough doctors/ventilators etc. to treat everyone. We may not even be in the early innings here; the players are only now taking the field.

Agreed. We're inflecting into the exponential growth phase. I feel bad for any small business owner/retailer over the next few months. Once cases become common, foot traffic is going to fall off a cliff.

This is a superb point. A lot of people will worry that they might be hit with a hefty pricetag for a test that is not necessarily accurate. I saw Mass lawmakers mandated that anyone can get tested without expense (kudos to them), but there are only four states doing this. And as you say, a lot of people presenting mild symptoms probably just assume they have a bad cold and just soldier on as usual. Here's what I'll say about this, it ain't the flu. The Chinese Communist Party values social stability above everything else, and their model for keeping stability has been economic growth at any cost, including blowing an unprecedented debt bubble over the last decade. The fact that they've virtually locked their country down and destroyed their economy suggests that what they're seeing and what they're reporting are two very different things.

Sorry Steve, don't mean to be a downer. But normalcy bias can be a major problem in a situation like this. Better to take this seriously than be complacent.

Bear in mind that the case fatality rate may actually rise going forward if draconian containment measures are not taken. This virus is very transmittable, and viral shedding is nearly as high in asymptomatic infected people as in those who are visibly sick. People can be walking around infecting others for weeks without knowing they are sick themselves. Based on the data we have, somewhere between 13-20% of infected people will require hospitalization, usually in the second or third week, which will very quickly will overwhelm hospital capacity, especially considering hospitals are already near capacity from the flu. Worse, coronavirus cases that progress to the pneumonia stage often require weeks of oxygen, assisted ventilation and other intensive care. Some patients appear to develop fibrosis, so basically permanent lung damage. There simply isn't enough capacity for the number of people who will likely need this therapy in the coming months. This will lead to deaths in people of all ages; obviously the rate will be higher in the elderly (which is somewhere around 15% for those above 80) and people with existing health complications, diabetes, smokers, cancer etc. etc. (of which there are millions), but there have been plenty of cases of young, healthy people dying from multiple organ failure from cytokine storms. Basically overly aggressive immune response causes massive inflammation and floods the lungs with fluid. Same thing happened in the young in 1918. The other thing to consider regarding the case fatality rate is that dividing deaths by confirmed cases may not be the best metric. Deaths/recoveries may be a better method, as it captures cases where the disease has completely run its course. Based on data so far, that would put SARS-COVID19 around 6-8%, not too far out of line with SARS' 10%. Don't expect this to disappear from the headlines anytime soon. We likely have not seen an infectious disease threat of this magnitude in a century.

Amazing how spring is asserting itself down here already. My yard is full of crocuses and snowdrops; my daffodils are already up and budding; I've noticed some forsythia blooming and several maples around Yale with red buds. If we get a warm month, it'll be an early leaf-out for sure. Bring it, say I.

Best of luck.

Looking forward to being back here. This winter blows. Bring on the Masters.

Just to remind y'all what snow looks like.

You weren't here for that? Bummer. It was epic.

Happy anniversary of an all-time fave snow storm.

Was this from that epic LE event in fall 2014 in the Buffalo area?

7" from squalls? Jesus! Congratulations!

As someone who gets annoyed when storm chasers pollute their footage with lots of high-pitched hollering and appeals to deities, I appreciate your letting the image do the talking. Also, wow. I believe this qualifies as "puking" snow.

Same. Actually feels like winter for a few hours.

Been crushing Hill Farmstead Society and Solitude 4 and 5, Mosaic and Double Galaxy. All pretty damn spectacular. Merry Christmas everyone!

What did you get in Jan '11? Would've thought you'd crack 20 there easy.

Yeah, I remember well thinking the same thing, then waking up one morning to posts about the Euro burying us. Then the NAM crushed, and by afternoon almost all guidance was on board. That was a fun couple days.

I'm pretty sure you were in a bad way at the end of Jan '13. I could be wrong, but 2012 into '13 was a rough stretch for both of us.

Since we're getting to the bitter end of the '10s, it seems fitting to reflect upon what has been a great decade for NE winter storm lovers. No reversion to the mean this decade. Strictly from an IMBY perspective (Hamden, CT/Boston, MA), the '10s have crowded my greatest hits list. We had the two greatest months of winter of my life to date: Feb '15 and Jan '11. If one includes the dying week of Jan in with Feb '15, it was the greatest winter period I'll ever experience: bitter cold, ferocious storms of all stripes (Manitoba Maulers, mid-level magic, SWFE on roids, super long duration), seemingly endless light ocean effect and 90" give or take that ground the Boston area to a virtual halt. Jan '11 was likewise very special, and had Boxing Day '10 not been a fiasco in southern CT, could have been up there with '15. But let's not quibble, for that month featured my first true NORLUN, a fluffy 9", followed hard upon by the 27" of the great Blizzard of '11, topped off by 15" of epic rates and thundersnow on the 27th. 2011 marked my first experience with roof rakes, ice dams, frozen pipes and a blown out furnace. Anyway, here's a tabulation of the best events I remember. The decade was so productive on the whole, there may well be events that have fallen through the cracks. Boxing Day '10. A disappointment in the accumulation department, but the miraculous turnaround in the modeling on Christmas Day (including the NWS' initial rejection of some of the data) makes this one memorable. The wind was ferocious. Jan '11 NORLUN. Worked its way through southern CT and dumped as much as 15" in a few hillier towns. If memory serves, a 9" fluff job in Hamden. Jan '11 Blizzard. 27" in roughly 13 hours. North Haven put up a 30 spot, Berkshires and southern VT destroyed with 40". Jan 27, 2011. A two part hit with a few inches of light wet snow in the morning, followed by a blitzkrieg at night. 4-5"/hr rates, thunder, 15". Capped off a great month. October '11: Dud in Cambridge, but obviously warrants inclusion for sheer exotic rarity and disastrous impact in much of SNE. March '12: Not a storm, but an epic epic torch, which was welcome after the horror show that was that winter. I recall the trees budding over Paul Revere's grave and choosing to walk home a few days in caressing 70s and low 80s. Girls in summer dresses on the Common. Feb '13: Epic in its own right, perhaps made more so for the catharsis it brought after a wretched, tortured '12 and early '13 season. Scott melted hard in the lead up (a good contra indicator) and Kevin initially tossed the Euro's blizzard depiction hard and far. Perhaps the only time I have ever received a 2 foot snow storm, but felt gipped because back home pulled a 40 spot of man snow. March '13. The Fire hose storm. Wild system, which gave me fits professionally. I was tasked with giving an investor day presentation atop 60 State as the snow was dumping all around, and it was mightily distracting. Who, I ask you, can cogently conduct business while a long Atlantic fetch of moisture dumps gorgeous parachutes outside the floor to ceiling windows at 2"/hr? It was one of those late season storms where the difference between downtown and the suburbs was striking. Maybe 8-10" of slush downtown, tack on another 5" at home across the Charles, and 30" in the Blue Hills. RI with an epic screwgy. Winter of '14. I know there were some great events in here, including several blizz warnings, but dates and amounts elude me for whatever reason. At any rate, I recall snow storms with near zero temps and a great December. Jan '15 Manitoba Mauler. Another cathartic event as many here, self included, were preparing to cheer for the futility record. Ushered in most epic winter period of my life, as already tabulated above. 30" amounts widespread across eastern CT, RI, MA, NH. '15 Superbowl SWFE. Pats win and another foot plus in the bag. What more needs to be said? '15 long duration storm. Felt like it snowed for days, tacked on another 2 feet. Scott pulled close to 3 with the ocean enhancement. '15 mid-level magic. Models struggled, Ginx and Clinch were all over it. Epic rates, magical fluff and thunder pushed me to a lifetime record depth (see pic) '16 Generally a dud winter, but we did manage to catch the northern fringe of the epic Mid-Atlantic blizzard. 8" or so. Still basking in the afterglow of '15, so wasn't much bothered by the crap season. VT struggled mightily. '17. Back in CT. Awesome quick hitter in Jan (?) to the tune of 14 or 15", Miller A in March that had a lot of promise but got too tucked and wound up flipping after a quick 9" or so. Epic hit for the Albany region. '18. Jan "super-bomb". One of the coldest weeks in NE history preceded this beast of a nor'easter. It was a beginning to occlude by the time we felt its effects, but it was still a solid foot+ locally, with some areas over 20. Bottomed out around 950mb. March '18. 4 impressive nor'easters, two horrible busts IMBY and one paste bomb with fantastic thundersnow (thanks to 4 Seasons for reminding me). If only we'd had seasonable thermals for the first event (apologies to Ray) '19. A generally abysmal season, but bookended by a few nice events. Mid Novie traffic nightmare storm and the quick hitting foot in March. Damaging ice storm in January worth throwing in the mix too. Think there was a great squall somewhere in there. Had more inches of rain than snow at the end of February. December '19. No go for the early December interior HECS, squeezed out a few inches here and there. Had a fun squall and a solid ice event with close to .5 accretion. Likely quiet through Christmas, but may get active again as we enter the '20s. All in all, I grade this decade an A. Below, a pic from Hampshire St in Cambridge the morning of ML Magic '15. The second, morning after Feb '13 at my parents' in Hamden.

I stayed up all night for that one. Still remember watching the radar in NJ explode and knowing we were gonna get smoked. We caught the edge of the dry slot for an hour and still picked up 27". Great, great storm.

Awesome footage. And I believe the week before the blizzard was one of the coldest in NE history, too.