Hoth

Fingers crossed it has seasonality like the flu, but we can't assume. Our government seems to be intentionally downplaying the risk, which is only going to make this more likely to explode out of control in the coming month or two.

Bear in mind that the case fatality rate may actually rise going forward if draconian containment measures are not taken. This virus is very transmittable, and viral shedding is nearly as high in asymptomatic infected people as in those who are visibly sick. People can be walking around infecting others for weeks without knowing they are sick themselves. Based on the data we have, somewhere between 13-20% of infected people will require hospitalization, usually in the second or third week, which will very quickly will overwhelm hospital capacity, especially considering hospitals are already near capacity from the flu. Worse, coronavirus cases that progress to the pneumonia stage often require weeks of oxygen, assisted ventilation and other intensive care. Some patients appear to develop fibrosis, so basically permanent lung damage. There simply isn't enough capacity for the number of people who will likely need this therapy in the coming months. This will lead to deaths in people of all ages; obviously the rate will be higher in the elderly (which is somewhere around 15% for those above 80) and people with existing health complications, diabetes, smokers, cancer etc. etc. (of which there are millions), but there have been plenty of cases of young, healthy people dying from multiple organ failure from cytokine storms. Basically overly aggressive immune response causes massive inflammation and floods the lungs with fluid. Same thing happened in the young in 1918. The other thing to consider regarding the case fatality rate is that dividing deaths by confirmed cases may not be the best metric. Deaths/recoveries may be a better method, as it captures cases where the disease has completely run its course. Based on data so far, that would put SARS-COVID19 around 6-8%, not too far out of line with SARS' 10%. Don't expect this to disappear from the headlines anytime soon. We likely have not seen an infectious disease threat of this magnitude in a century.

Bump.

Amazing how spring is asserting itself down here already. My yard is full of crocuses and snowdrops; my daffodils are already up and budding; I've noticed some forsythia blooming and several maples around Yale with red buds. If we get a warm month, it'll be an early leaf-out for sure. Bring it, say I.

My brother's in-laws live up in Tupper Lake. They had a two foot pack before this storm and got another two feet from the LE. Talk about utopia.

In a parallel universe water freezes at 100 degrees. Epic snows year round.

At this point, I say:

Yeah, this winter is worse than '11-'12 for me, but panic and dismay have passed on to numb acceptance and the eager anticipation of spring. Anyway, since we're in a panic thread, I'd like to make a suggestion regarding COVID-19 for anyone who takes critical medication manufactured in China (or via a manufacturer who sources chemicals from China). I'd recommend looking into getting an extra prescription now, as supply disruptions may well be in the offing. These Chinese lockdowns show no sign of abating and there is little likelihood of China getting control over coronavirus and returning to work in the coming month or two. You might also consider gradually stocking up on extra essentials, canned food, rice etc., as social isolation may well be coming to the U.S. in the coming months. The military has already initiated their pandemic plan and if the data concerning the bug's virality are close to correct, there is little chance of preventing this from spreading globally.

Thanks. Beast of a system.

Hey Steve, you're generally on top of these things. Any idea what that beast up near Iceland got down to?

Wiz is ready.

I'm not sure you understand the concept of a panic room.

Global Times: "Bodies of #nCoV2019 victims should be cremated close by and immediately. Burials or transfer of the bodies not allowed. Funerals not allowed to avoid spread of the virus: National Health Commission." That escalated quickly...

Best of luck.

Looking forward to being back here. This winter blows. Bring on the Masters.

So can this thread do double duty with Wuhan virus hysteria when the time comes? Because at least that is looking pretty bullish in the modeling.

Ha, always a silver lining. But then again I don't enjoy March snow as much because it always melts quickly.

Amazing echoes of last winter. Another dud December/Jan, same fake out by the modeling for an epic pattern in the back half of January. Modoki goes in the fraud five if this season winds up where '19 did.

Just to remind y'all what snow looks like.

You weren't here for that? Bummer. It was epic.

Happy anniversary of an all-time fave snow storm.

Was this from that epic LE event in fall 2014 in the Buffalo area?

7" from squalls? Jesus! Congratulations!

As someone who gets annoyed when storm chasers pollute their footage with lots of high-pitched hollering and appeals to deities, I appreciate your letting the image do the talking. Also, wow. I believe this qualifies as "puking" snow.

I really can't believe we're actually behind last winter heading into mid January.