CAD_Wedge_NC
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Everything posted by CAD_Wedge_NC
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"14.7 and felt every bit of it" .... fixed it for you. Is this correct? .... lol, just messing with you.
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Might as well start the thread now....lol
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Are you ready to call It now .... time of death?
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They all do, and this one will also .... Question is .... will it be too much.
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Look at it this way .... if it phases early and we amp up, we have wiggle room to still get a good winter storm out of it. We are actually in a better spot than if we were worrying about a NW trend.
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February 19-20 Major Winter Storm Threat
CAD_Wedge_NC replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
If this pans out, I will be staying right where I am. -
I have not seen an EPS mean of 6 inches in years. The Euro suite is looking sweet. Maybe I will need that shovel after all.
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It was so cold that I only needed a leaf blower. I saved the shoveling for next week.
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Guess we will see you next winter then. End of winter is only 2 weeks away despite what the weeklies show.
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Nope, not going to get sucked in. The ensembles aren't in agreement with the OP. At this range we should be looking at that .... not the OP run. However, the trends are encouraging.
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Yeah, not surprised at the CAD showing signs of being stronger as we approach verification. Far cry from the warm rain we were anticipating a few days ago.
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Not really liking where this is going. This is trending towards a Miller B storm. If that's the case, we will see the CAD trend stronger/colder at the surface while the 850's stay warm. That spells "lights out for us"
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I agree with you. However, it has been trending south .... it may not be done yet. It will all come down to where it ends up before the NW trend sets in.
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Or snow in FL again.
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No, it's Shawn with a new avatar
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I believe there was a reason for that. Webber kept telling us that it would come NW. He is a great met and has good pattern recognition skills. By the way, I pulled my shovel out of the shed ..... just in case the EURO/CMC camp is right.
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Actually, looks better to me. Caught the west coast low and drug it along for the ride.
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No, I have been on these boards for 20 years and I have learned that you never speak in absolutes. You learn that nothing is written in stone until a 100% model consensus is reached. That hasn't happened yet with this storm. Not being argumentative, I am just trying to understand your reasoning.
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NAM coming in with energy more west. Still trending folks.
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OK ..... What percentage do you think trend NW? You say a high percentage .... does that mean you think that there is a high percentage of this one trending NW. Asking for a friend.
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That 1045mb high pressure in Mississippi that was modeled by the GFS on the 18z run 1/15 has now trended to a 1040 in Iowa. That has allowed the precip shield to expand north. I look for this to continue. This a perfect spot climo wise for a SE winter storm. If the pressure drops to 1036mb or so in the coming model runs, it's game on.
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It would appear that way ..... yes
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I'll bump this post while I am shoveling the snow off my walkway next week.
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Not yet sold on that solution. I want to see today's runs before I lose interest.
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Do you really think that the cold push will be that strong come verification time???? Rarely is as modeled at this range. To say that we will not get anything during the entire week sounds like a pretty bold statement to me. I would definitely bet the over on that one.
