CAD_Wedge_NC

Or snow in FL again.

No, it's Shawn with a new avatar

I believe there was a reason for that. Webber kept telling us that it would come NW. He is a great met and has good pattern recognition skills. By the way, I pulled my shovel out of the shed ..... just in case the EURO/CMC camp is right.

Actually, looks better to me. Caught the west coast low and drug it along for the ride.

No, I have been on these boards for 20 years and I have learned that you never speak in absolutes. You learn that nothing is written in stone until a 100% model consensus is reached. That hasn't happened yet with this storm. Not being argumentative, I am just trying to understand your reasoning.

NAM coming in with energy more west. Still trending folks.

OK ..... What percentage do you think trend NW? You say a high percentage .... does that mean you think that there is a high percentage of this one trending NW. Asking for a friend.

That 1045mb high pressure in Mississippi that was modeled by the GFS on the 18z run 1/15 has now trended to a 1040 in Iowa. That has allowed the precip shield to expand north. I look for this to continue. This a perfect spot climo wise for a SE winter storm. If the pressure drops to 1036mb or so in the coming model runs, it's game on.

It would appear that way ..... yes

I'll bump this post while I am shoveling the snow off my walkway next week.

Not yet sold on that solution. I want to see today's runs before I lose interest.

Do you really think that the cold push will be that strong come verification time???? Rarely is as modeled at this range. To say that we will not get anything during the entire week sounds like a pretty bold statement to me. I would definitely bet the over on that one.

Why are you so negative on next week's potential? You are trolling every post. Stop with the " one-liners and explain why you believe this. I would be happy to hear it.

Well, we have had all three main models show a big dog at one point. I am getting the feeling that this is somewhat legit. One thing that I am still unsure of is the strength of that high pressure. Really.....1050mb+ ..... If that is not as strong as currently modeled come verification time, then all bets are off. I will be watching to see if the models back off of the strength in the coming days and how much.

Don't be too sure.... I like it on this side of the fence. Better than fighting mixing issues.