DeltaT13

22 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

I actually enjoy these types of events it's better then being cold and dry missing everything to the south..

The problem is getting these primary's to weaken in time lol

You enjoy cold rain events with nuisance snow and nasty flash freezes afterwards?  GTFO, no one likes this horrible weather.  Utterly useless for nearly everything. 

But hey, at least someone is happy about this nonsense I guess.  

There must be something wrong with the models as they show two low pressure centers going south of us before the next 26 consecutive rain storms. That can't be right!? 

12 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

I miss the old days when i had no idea weather models existed..

You wanted to know the weather just look out the window lol

Or waiting till 3 am to watch the "local on the 8's" update,,

Watching paul kocin hoping he would put me in the "pink", brighter the better haha

Good ole days..When weather was fun..

I agree with this so much.  Imagine how exciting it was when you woke up and literally had no clue if a blizzard was going to hit or it would be a sunny day.  Whether a warm sunny day would evolve into a terrifying severe outbreak or just some afternoon garden variety storms.  I mean it sounds dangerous, but also wildly exciting.  We know the minute snow will start and the minute it will end.  It's pretty damn boring to be honest.  I remember watching the weather channel for hours in the early 90's just praying I could catch a glimpse of the radar (and they were pretty crappy radars at that).  Now it's right in my pocket. So much has happened in 30 years, its mind boggling.  

26 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Welp, my stint here on the Tug is looking brief. Just got told by my boss I am laid off indefinitely...and not looking good. Financial stress is a huge issue here.

Maybe I will get to experience a good LES band before I leave.

Sorry to hear that man.  I've always wondered where the heck people find jobs up on the Tug, I guess this somewhat answer the question.  There aren't many available.  

47 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Over to frz rn in N ROC. 3.2”. I was TOO AGGRESSIVE with my 4” call. And to think of all the crap I took yesterday. Lol

Good luck in the north country. That pivot point isn’t super far North. My gut says it’s far enough north...unfortunately. 

You did alright up there.  I havent meaured anything over 2 inches down near U of R.  Of course the airport ASOS will report 5 inches somehow.  

We are into full on bead blast mode here.  I have big windows in my office and its just PINGERS nonstop right now.  

2 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

No I will not, hell no cause if what I'm experiencing even lasts 3-4 more hrs, then I'll be happy!  You've had a nice event this yr, we haven't, so enjoy your rain, lol!

I'm just giving you shit because of your sometimes bipolar reactions to these storms.  We should figure out how many times you have used the word joke this season.  That's never a good sign either.  

1 minute ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Super amazing out there right now, nice.  At least we can say we got to experience at least one good event this season so far and the future looks bleak, lol!

In two hours you'll be calling this the biggest joke ever and ranting and raving.  hahaha

Completely changed over to freezing rain and sleet in ROC.  Got about 1.5 inches of snow before the changeover took place.  

10 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

These models don't seem to have gotten any better over the years. 12Z Canadian showed a great amount of snow for Upstate. Now? Like a third of that. What is the point of even following them...

I think the models in general have been phenomenal as of late.  You can pretty much lock a storm or setup 10 days out now (obviously lacking some fine details).  The last 3 or 4 "events" we have had were more or less locked 10 to even 14 days out.  They are actually taking the fun out of weather for me. There are no surprises anymore....

Great flake quality here with heavy snow but the end is already in sight.  You can see it on radar as the warmth surges North.  

All eyes on these thicknesses today.  

28 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Thanks. I hope you're right. Hopefully you guys can end getting the better amounts too. I think your area and the rest of the valley area around there only had that one good storm this season?

Only 2 storms with 8 or more inches in my backyard.  11/15/18 and 1/19/19.  Definitely a slow season.  And now the endless cutters.  I was actually looking up flights out west to tahoe or Washington today.   I need to salvage this snowboarding season.  

16 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

The NAM runs came in looking awful for the Tug tomorrow. This winter blows.

But for reference, that looks like an amazing hit from someone in my position.  I think you get an easy foot out of that, probably more.  

13 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

The NAM runs came in looking awful for the Tug tomorrow. This winter blows.

And the NAM is one of the better runs for ROC.  Gives us more of the glancing blow in regards to rain, the scenario Tim mentioned.  Overall its Just such a sketchy storm track and transfer.  Lots of ways for it to go wrong and few to go right  

Pretty fascinating event in Hawaii today with the first snow in recorded history observed on Maui.  I just started looking at model runs and they are impressive to say the least.  I forget how ridiculous storms are in the pacific.  A seemingly endless supply of huge explosive lows strengthening to 950mb, just one after another! 

The storm that hit hawaii is interesting.  Two sfc lows phase and cutoff taking a chunk of very cold air with them.  The 540 line shows us a few times which is wild.  The storm also just sits there for days.  Can only imagine the rains in the mountains.  I've been to hawaii and its no joke on a regular day....

191mph ridge line winds
60 foot waves
Snow at 6300 feet.

Great stuff!

1 hour ago, tim123 said:

Really. I don't see a rainstorm at all. Maybe flip to drizzle showers after alot of frozen

I think ROC will go above freezing sometime around mid afternoon tomorrow and stay there until 6am Wednesday.  Not even sure how much precip we will get with downsloping and dry slotting but It's a swing and a miss for my backyard.  And if we do get precip for those 15 hours above freezing, thats called a rainstorm.  

Remember 3 weeks ago when we saw all these rainstorms on the horizon and people assured me it wouldnt happen?   Well, it happened, and it keeps happening.  It's an ugly pattern and its locked in.  

6 hours ago, rochesterdave said:

For BUF-Roc there just is nothing to stop that warm punch of air. It trains up Erie and onto the Niagara escarpment. North Country still looks good. As does ENY. Battleground (in my feeble mind) is Oswego County and just NE of Syracuse. 

Hoping on that dry slot once the upper warmth rolls in. Because it ain’t gonna last! 

Yup, this is a just a big nasty rainstorm for KROC, no way to get around this one.  Then it rains again, and again, and again, and again in the coming weeks.  Just a bad pattern for upstate.  Other places are having the best winter of their lives.  That's how the weather goes.  

Roc is certainly a real close call on this one.   Pounding rain or the heaviest wettest snow ever.  I remember a track like this about 5 years ago where we were supposed to flip rain but it never happened.  Certainly don't feel all that optimistic in my location.  

As a wind lover, this wind event has over performed big time.  Wind is absolutely roaring still.  Coming up on 19 straight hours of gusts 40+   I'm loving it!

Salvaged a couple really decent days at whiteface. Today was complete mashed potato snow with crazy visibility issues at times but it all added to the experience. Warm temps and steeps runs. 

I also managed to somehow get on the whiteface Facebook page today. I had no idea this picture was taken. Haha!

3 hours ago, cny rider said:

When are you leaving?

We are headed to Stowe Thursday morning. Staying through Monday.

I'm holding out hope that the Friday event produces snow up there.

There's no snow depth issues up there so if it wants to be 40F and sunny every day we would gladly take spring skiing conditions.  I just don't want rain then a freeze without snow.

 

Leaving Sunday at 5am.  Hoping to ride 4 hours at Whiteface on Sunday afternoon.  Then we stay in Lake Placid until Thursday morning.  Thursday we drive to Stowe/smugglers notch and stay in that area until Sunday.  Plans are in flux.  Hoping the high peaks of vermont can stay all snow with the follow up system.  

3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

I hear ya. Last week, one of the guys going on the trip with us killed himself, which put everything into perspective. I wasn’t great friends with him but some of the others were. As far as I know, we are still going. Suffice to say, I’ll be worrying less about a little rain and focusing on just having a good time with the people around me. 

My trip to Snow Ridge followed some horrible weather (rain followed by extreme cold) and the conditions were surprisingly good. These new parabolic (I’m sooo old) skis do really well on hard pack. Spring skiing can also be great as long as it isn’t actively pouring on you. 

Have fun Delta! Hope it is great!  Upload some pics. 

Geez man, that's awful. Definitely puts our minor grievances in perspective. 

We'll still have fun, just won't crush the slopes like I have envisioned.  Enjoy Vermont!  I'll post some pics when I can.

1 hour ago, rochesterdave said:

Models starting to suppression storm #2. I don’t know if Delta is still watching. It looks less like rain

Yeah, some hints at redemption for the second half of the week but it's close call still.  The fact that I have to cancel hotel reservations at specific times in order to get refunds will make the next few days of weather watching a bit stressful.  At this point I think I'm just shit canning the Vermont half of the trip.  Cut my losses and save vacation and money.  

51 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Almost total Whiteout here in Hamburg, band has strengthened again. 

Southern Erie I can definitely understand.  Chautauqua and Cataragus though....??

I can't believe how long they are letting some of these winter storm warnings run.  Seems like East of Erie is pretty much in the clear now.  

Also, what does jebwalk mean?  So confused on that one.