DeltaT13

Also, as a quick aside. The fugiwhara effect should have never been mentioned (by whoever it was on the other forum) as this is not an example of it at all. The fugiwhara effect is when two separate low pressure systems approach each other and interact by rotating about each other. What we are seeing on the east coast with this storm Is more akin to a tornado with multiples mesoscale vortices. There is one large area of lift and energy that has localized areas of enhanced convective activity. This creates a broad area of low pressure with smaller meso lows that are slowly consolidating around the strongest area of lift. I can see how it could be confused but it’s not the same. Anyway. we want the primary area of lift to consolidate just off NYC.

I still like 2-4 still, especially for the west side. Will definitely see more east. We are going to see a plume or snow materialize over the fingerlakes soon as the mid level vorticity and lift interacts with the Atlantic moisture from new low. The western edge will have a brutal cut off. I definitely don’t like my position but we shall see.

5mb pressure fall off the NJ coast is impressive. Hopefully it’s indicative of the surface low sitting and consolidating.

Light rain and 32 (probably 32.5 as there is melting) over the roc. Found my tree in some intense sleet, it was a fun mission. Show is over here for a few hours until the secondary takes over. Hoping for a few inches of snow tonight.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16# on the pull down menu under surface

It was pure pounding sleet from Gates to woody acres tree farm in Webster. Almost no snow. A little freezing rain here and there. Cars off the road in many places and some people driving 10mph. Storm looking juicier than I had expected. Can’t wait to see where the secondary sets up shop, we need it to hang up and wait for the remnant upper low.

This is extrapolated because we don’t launch balloons here. But seems fairly accurate. Surface is a bit colder.

Well shit, now we have rain mixing in and it’s 25 degrees. Hold on to your butts.

Ice storm warning is .50” or more. The big difference is whether or not that is radial thickness or full diameter. I can’t remember and can’t seem to find it.

The atmosphere is very turbulent and “unstable” right now. Every few minutes we jump to heavy snow then it flips right back. I assume the heavy snow bursts are located under areas of strong upward vertical motion. Weird wild stuff.

The only thing working for us right now is a very cold boundary layer which is changing everything to sleet. Minimal icing so far. 25 degrees in my backyard. If we change to rain, watch out. It will ice up stunningly fast.

Do you mean total of everything on the ground?! We are going to have a couple inches of sleet if nothing else, but I think we’ll get 2-4 inches of snow on top once the secondary takes over.

Woke up to pingers galore but now some giant flakes are trying to mix in when it’s coming down at its heaviest so there is almost enough cold air to flip us. Should be a wild ride today.

This certainly is a fascinating storm system. Secondary development and low transfers are alway finicky for upstate. It seems to be trending towards more of a low transfer and not a jump, which favors us in regards to moisture and dynamics but also introduces more thermal profile issues. I love seeing the low deepen and retrograde a bit as the secondary takes over. I feel like I could get 1 inch or I could 9 inches right now.

The cold biased NAM continues to give hope areawide. Haha. The 6z run was ever more weenie-ish. I think the front end thump on Sunday morning will be pretty intense with every form of precip on the table. But I’m guessing heavy sleet or very wet snow will predominate. My point and click doesn’t even mention rain which is surprising. All that said, I’m hoping for some kind of interesting weather as we will be heading out to cut our Christmas tree Sunday morning and the last 4 years have been relatively mild sunny days that didn’t feel wintry or Christmasy at all.

The actual front that should be on your doorstep now looks even more feisty!

This forum has been chasing straight fantasy storms for the past couple weeks, like much worse than usual. It was that early season snow storm that gave everyone the itch. Now we are chasing storms 384 hours out. It's a fools errand but mostly harmless if we keep our expectations in check. Storm number 2 (the 12/2) system has been holding serve and trending better as of late, so I'm starting to be intrigued.

The Upper Peninsula of Michigan has to be one of the most wintry places to live anywhere in this country. Relentless lake snows and almost always on the right side of any winter storm. These next two systems absolutely crush them. Going to be quite the hefty snowpack setting up there by next week.

I've been eyeing this one for several days now as a possible significant wind event. A few of these runs have been real doozies for WNY!

I like to give credit where credit is due. I had forgotten about this event, here is my personal entry from this one. "A secondary re-enforcing arctic front dropped through the lakes today. This brought an initial bout of very heavy lake effect as the front pushed the Ontario band onto the South shore. This was a typically short event but the morning commute snowfall rates of 2-3 inches an hour caused general rush hour havoc. The lake went quiet for about 6 hours as winds re-aligned west and then NW. Once they went NW, a large and powerful connection to Huron and GB setup an intense band through Wayne and Monroe counties that became somewhat stationary for the major portion of the night. Rochester picked up 12.1 inches of snow from this. I chased this event for about 6 hours and it was pretty awesome. Very strong winds along the lake gusting 50-60 forced buffalo to issue blizzard warnings for Wayne county. Monroe likely should have had the same warnings."

I'm posting this now because its extremely rare to see KROC at the top (even with our inflated numbers). This surely won't last long though! GSB Cities The 2019 - 2020 Snow Season Normal Average to Date This Time Last Season Normal Seasons Average All Time Season Snowfall Record Rochester 17.8 3.1 10.6 99.5 161.7 inches (1959 - 1960) Buffalo 12.6 4.3 3.8 94.7 199.4 inches (1976 - 1977) Syracuse 6.6 4.0 15.7 123.8 192.1 inches (1992 - 1993) Binghamton 4.0 3.4 16.0 83.4 135.2 inches (2016 - 2017) Albany 0.6 1.3 6.4 60.2 112.5 inches (1970 - 1971)

And yeah, I have no idea what the hell "Other Federal" means, haha. Your guess is as good as mine.

I think I measured 8 inches but made no effort to measure at intervals. It's all so ambiguous and completely different than total depth on the ground post storm. We should all at least feel lucky that we have these problems, not many cities in this great nation have seasonal snow totals anywhere near what we get (and we still bitch and moan incessantly). We have a it good! Alright, I need to get back to work, lolz.

Yup, and the 11 inches were concrete that could barely be compressed at all while the 5 inches could literally be squished down to less than a quarter inch. Hard to compare numbers like that at face value. Snow Water Equivalent is a critical metric that rarely gets mentioned in seasonal totals.

This is a great question and likely the reason behind our inflated numbers. I think the ASOS makes some weird assumptions combined with an inexperienced person taking the measurements in a location that favors drifting.