DeltaT13

Did you change over yet Dave?

Travel advisory in Livingston county. Kind of surprising as they are mostly the genny valley and usually change later and have less snow.

Very cool! Lewiston is below the escarpment, definitely not helping their case.

Sticking on the roads here. It’s now or never! Down to 34.5

Down to 35 here. That’s a nice 3 Degree drop in an hour accumulation on grassy surfaces has commenced!

That’s not good man. A lot of models really showed that modified lake layer preventing change over along the lake shore until the bitter end

How close to the lake are you? Hopefully that doesn’t screw you.

Full on snow here now. Temp down to 36.

We really need the sun to set. That will buy us 2-3 more degrees in air temp but more importantly it will allow the pavement to cool off nicely

Backyard temp is 38.1 and big sloppy snowflakes just started mixing.

Take a close look at the 0z high res nam, it pops a surface low in deep convection off the east coast which rides up towards boston before backbuilding and jumping back over PA where the strongest upper level support is developing. I think the drop in precip on that 0z NAM run might be related to convective feedback,(however sometimes the surface low really will track with that deep convection) where the 18z run maintains the primary low over PA. Anyway something to keep an eye on.

I'm fascinated by the prospect of a rapidly deepening sub 980mb low over the adirondacks. That really doesnt happen often at all. Certainly not a classic high wind track but its got to end up producing some pretty damn gusty winds on the South shore of Lake Ontario. Combine that wind with some concrete like snow and we might even have some branches down and power outages. Also wondering if they will extend those lakeshore flood watches. The water levels are so high

WWA for Roc! The situation continues to evolve

3 or 4 inches in ROC would be a huge win in my book. This is a tough setup and ratios will be like 8:1 so that’s still a lot of precip. Tempering my expectations because riding the NAM is a dangerous game.

I mean it certainly doesnt hurt us. The models have always forecasted it to be deep, but it over the last two days the sfc low min pressure has decreased by almost 15mb which is certainly significant. That can only help wrap in the cold air faster. I'm also rusty on adiabatic/diabatic cooling processes but I seem to remember additional cooling under rapidly deepening storms as the heights begin to crash.

Regardless of precip type, that storm tomorrow is anomalously deep. Most models have it bottoming out in the low 970's or even upper 960's as it moves into Quebec, that's fairly unusual.

But I do agree, this storm isnt magically changing into a snow storm in two days. But I think there could be some surprises further west with elevation involved

Well I wouldnt quite go that far. The 540dm line is trudging through WNY on the tail end of this so marginally cold enough air isnt that far away. Add some dynamic cooling from heavy precip, diurnal cooling, and elevation, and I would be surprised to see someone get 3-5 out of it. Definitely not ideal by any stretch but we miss out on a sloppy wet snow event by a couple degrees. Of course the cold biased NAM is showing the most optimistic of scenarios. Areas in SW NY are obviously in the best spot. CNY is a washout.

Damn, as you obviously know that street ends (or starts) at doebler drive. Pretty crazy, my brother graduated in 94 so you may have known him.

Spent the first 18 years of my life on Doebler Drive. It was a very nice town to grow up in, aside from the lack of lake effect snow, lol.

This band is certainly creating strong wind gusts along its perimeter. Even as the scraggly end has edged towards my location in Rochester the winds have ramped up significantly, its very impressive. Lot of vertical motion in that thing.

Amen, I grew up in North Tonawanda. It was brutal always being just a handful of miles away from pure insanity. The Christmas week storm from 2001 was particularly rough to watch from the side lines (and we even got 2 feet or so, just nowhere near what Buffalo got). Fortunately, for most people thats a huge selling point to living in the North Towns, most people hate snow.

Did you see the radar I posted? It’s gaining fetch and strength right now. Give it an hour.

Looks like additional moisture and a wind shift on the west end of Erie, it’s really blossoming. This band will be on the move again soon.

Damnit all, that band is most certainly chase-able. I blew it again. What a beast!!