DeltaT13

The GFS cutter solution certainly shows a really nice lake response (albeit not for my backyard) behind the primary storm . The thing that really stands out right now is the ample low level moisture that hangs back for a solid 2 days right as the coldest and best aligned winds setup. Definitely intrigued by that aspect as things currently stand.

0z GFS has a decent SW band off Erie a mere 18 hours after the Bills game on Sunday. Maybe something to track.. Otherwise looks like a complete washout for the game as things currently stand.

I was just reading about the iguana problem. I guess a nice long week of fairly cold temps are what are needed to really knock them back as they can handle a couple days of cold. Apparently its been several years since a "prolonged" cold air outbreak and their numbers are blossoming.

I was noticing that on the 12z run today when the 528dm line made an appearance in deep Florida. Definitely the first time I've ever seen anything like that; even if its 300hrs out. I guess thats the way you get snow in Southern Florida which has supposedly happened a couple times over US history.

Yeah I bought these tickets early in the season. At one point this game could have been incredibly important (thankfully not though). But if the bills win today next week suddenly gets more interesting as the bills at least have a shot of winning the afc east. If the bills lose today next week will just be a snoozer. I could even see myself just eating the tix and staying home (unless there is interesting weather at the game).

Anyone else going to the Bills and Jets game on the 29th. That storm has been dithering between absolutely nothing, pounding rain, and sometimes heavy snow and wind. I would love to see it trend towards the snowy outcome. At least the long range is showing signs of life.

Ok,I live in gates. I guess you're blatantly calling me a liar? Stick to lying about the snow in Wayne County and predicting lake effect events that never verify. That's your specialty...

Apparently rochester could make that up in 1 hour if the ASOS is taking measurements

That is absolutely absurd. As I always mention, I live just a mile or so from the airport. There was a dusting this morning. Maybe a quarter inch. That ASOS is broken and altering the long term climate data for the area. I bet Rochester really only gets 70-80 inches a year when our average is supposedly 100. Pretty wild that no one wants to address it.

It seems like the NWS in buffalo almost only posts them to twitter these days (which is silly). I actually finally just got twitter to follow only two pages. The NWS in buffalo and the Monroe County fire wire.

Im glad someone said it. I won’t name names but there was a lot of hype about lake effect potential and upgrading to warnings, blah blah blah. And as usual, Monroe county came in with an anemic amount of snow. To be honest I think we got about 1.5 inches of total snow combining the arctic front and lake effect. You can’t just hype every storm. You lose your validity. Additionally, the Rochester ASOS is out to lunch.

While we are one this short jaunt down memory lane. The following December in Buffalo was an absolute blockbuster for cold and snow. Look at the temp departures. Some days had highs in the single digits and 52 inches of snow for the month!!! Sum 882 520 - - 1304 0 7.30 52.0 - 1983-12-01 31 24 27.5 -7.5 37 0 T T 5 1983-12-02 32 27 29.5 -5.1 35 0 0.06 0.4 5 1983-12-03 34 25 29.5 -4.7 35 0 T T 4 1983-12-04 34 25 29.5 -4.3 35 0 0.41 1.9 3 1983-12-05 38 33 35.5 2.0 29 0 0.06 0.0 3 1983-12-06 45 32 38.5 5.4 26 0 0.59 0.8 T 1983-12-07 32 22 27.0 -5.7 38 0 0.24 2.4 2 1983-12-08 30 17 23.5 -8.9 41 0 0.12 2.4 2 1983-12-09 35 25 30.0 -2.0 35 0 0.17 2.7 4 1983-12-10 36 24 30.0 -1.7 35 0 0.03 T 4 1983-12-11 39 23 31.0 -0.4 34 0 0.13 T 3 1983-12-12 43 35 39.0 8.0 26 0 1.03 0.0 1 1983-12-13 39 31 35.0 4.3 30 0 T 0.0 T 1983-12-14 40 31 35.5 5.1 29 0 0.19 0.0 T 1983-12-15 47 30 38.5 8.4 26 0 0.12 0.9 0 1983-12-16 31 25 28.0 -1.8 37 0 0.95 12.0 4 1983-12-17 25 20 22.5 -7.0 42 0 0.08 1.1 12 1983-12-18 20 13 16.5 -12.7 48 0 0.17 2.9 10 1983-12-19 13 0 6.5 -22.4 58 0 T T 12 1983-12-20 11 -7 2.0 -26.7 63 0 T T 10 1983-12-21 29 -8 10.5 -17.9 54 0 0.14 1.2 9 1983-12-22 40 13 26.5 -1.7 38 0 0.70 0.6 5 1983-12-23 14 6 10.0 -17.9 55 0 0.96 9.9 5 1983-12-24 7 2 4.5 -23.2 60 0 0.19 3.8 14 1983-12-25 7 0 3.5 -24.0 61 0 0.05 0.8 13 1983-12-26 13 -3 5.0 -22.3 60 0 0.32 4.7 16 1983-12-27 22 13 17.5 -9.6 47 0 0.08 0.9 16 1983-12-28 32 21 26.5 -0.4 38 0 0.40 1.0 13 1983-12-29 25 7 16.0 -10.7 49 0 T T 12 1983-12-30 12 7 9.5 -17.0 55 0 0.11 1.6 12 1983-12-31 26 7 16.5 -9.8 48 0 0.00 0.0 12

My mother often brings up a real warm Christmas when I was a very small child. I started trying to find the year she was referencing and I turned up this ridiculous monthly data from Buffalo for December 1982. Look at the first 6 days of the month! A high of 64, 68, 74, 68, 67, and 57. Thats freaking nuts. It then went on to hit 64 on Christmas day and 67 on the 28th. What an absolute scorcher or a month and yet we still managed to get almost 13 inches of snow and had 2 days with temps in the single digits. Thats weird wild stuff, what a rollercoaster ride. 982-12-01 64 47 55.5 20.5 9 0 0.00 0.0 0 1982-12-02 68 52 60.0 25.4 5 0 T 0.0 0 1982-12-03 74 60 67.0 32.8 0 2 0.00 0.0 0 1982-12-04 68 45 56.5 22.7 8 0 0.19 0.0 0 1982-12-05 67 45 56.0 22.5 9 0 0.23 0.0 0 1982-12-06 57 37 47.0 13.9 18 0 0.03 0.0 0 1982-12-07 44 32 38.0 5.3 27 0 0.00 0.0 0 1982-12-08 44 27 35.5 3.1 29 0 0.04 0.4 0 1982-12-09 31 7 19.0 -13.0 46 0 0.14 2.4 3 1982-12-10 35 7 21.0 -10.7 44 0 0.03 0.3 2 1982-12-11 34 19 26.5 -4.9 38 0 T T 2 1982-12-12 25 13 19.0 -12.0 46 0 0.01 0.2 1 1982-12-13 29 11 20.0 -10.7 45 0 T T 1 1982-12-14 42 27 34.5 4.1 30 0 0.00 0.0 1 1982-12-15 46 42 44.0 13.9 21 0 0.33 0.0 T 1982-12-16 49 21 35.0 5.2 30 0 0.49 0.1 0 1982-12-17 22 13 17.5 -12.0 47 0 T T T 1982-12-18 37 12 24.5 -4.7 40 0 0.00 0.0 T 1982-12-19 36 27 31.5 2.6 33 0 0.40 4.0 T 1982-12-20 32 28 30.0 1.3 35 0 0.45 4.8 5 1982-12-21 33 28 30.5 2.1 34 0 0.04 0.4 8 1982-12-22 33 28 30.5 2.3 34 0 0.01 0.1 7 1982-12-23 45 33 39.0 11.1 26 0 0.09 0.1 6 1982-12-24 56 45 50.5 22.8 14 0 0.02 0.0 T 1982-12-25 64 55 59.5 32.0 5 0 0.57 0.0 0 1982-12-26 55 29 42.0 14.7 23 0 T 0.0 0 1982-12-27 51 28 39.5 12.4 25 0 0.18 0.0 0 1982-12-28 67 36 51.5 24.6 13 0 0.06 0.0 0 1982-12-29 36 27 31.5 4.8 33 0 T T 0 1982-12-30 27 19 23.0 -3.5 42 0 T T 0 1982-12-31 33 18 25.5 -0.8 39 0 0.01 0.1 0

There is a lot to unpack from the IR satellite this morning. I wish I could save a loop. You can see the SE end of Ontario definitely had light snow almost all night with a decent cloud deck. Also interesting to see that Irondeqouit bay is the exact cutoff, with snow East and none West. Convergence is definitely maximized because of the shape of the shoreline. You can also see a nice streamer coming off of Seneca lake. High clouds are moving in so the view will be gone soon. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-LakeOntario-13-48-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=data

Game set match on this one. ‘‘Twas and interesting day for sure. Oswego county might grab a couple more over the next 18 hours. Looks like I ended up with about 2 inches in my backyard. And maybe another half inch or so as this scraggly band moves through. All in all a fun day but less than inspiring snow totals IMBY

Georgian bay band is slowly orienting more NW SE, the Ontario band should sag back over the roc metro this evening.

It was pretty snowy over the last hour or so, at least the roads are covered and it looks pretty wintry out there. I'm guessing we have an inch or so now. My only hope for tonight is that the Georgian Bay band seems to have really established on a NW flow and might give us some love overnight, it looks quite healthy in this satellite image https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-LakeOntario-13-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=data

If it’s a size issue it might because you have a high megapixel camera. I’ve found a sneaky workaround. Take a screenshot of the photo. It significantly reduces its size while minimally reducing the actual resolution.

I'm at U of R, I can assure you we havent got more than a half inch. Look at the roofs in that picture. It's just a coating of snow. Holding out hope for later when the winds align and shear dies down.

I thought the freak did really well with that meso? Dang, he's still doing pretty dang good all things considered with 4 or 5 inches.

It's snowing again but not really amounting to much. Still just a coating since it all began. That airport pic looks far more ominous than what I'm seeing out my window and I'm one mile away. I hate being a downer but so far I'm getting screwed here!

Oh you SHUT IT! you've gotten a foot of snow in the last 24 hours!!! I can still see grass and will likely still be able see grass come tomorrow morning.

Rochester was the screw zone this time around. Here’s the aftermath after the “death band”. The damn cars aren’t even covered enough to obscure the windshields, lol

you did a lot better than me. We still haven't even fully covered the parking lot down at U of R and its pretty much over. Picked up maybe an 1/8 of an inch.

Sky was very dark before that hit.