DeltaT13

If we cant have snow some flooding would at least be interesting and something to track. Would love to see us get more than 3 inches.

But after their 60 pages at leas they have snow on the ground. Haha. We just wishfully look at storm 268 hours out and nothing even materializes.

We’ve done well over 120 pages (in 2 threads) since December 20th and most of us have gotten less than 5 inches. I think we are worse at this point. Lol

2020 would fit into this graph like a glove. Sadly..... It looks like an ugly 4 year return interval on very mild winters.

I don’t think Ice will be a concern anymore. That front is continually moving which will causes the sliver of atmosphere conducive to icing to be transient at best. Looks like a lot of rain and a little snow. Just gross.

CMC made a huge jump east. Surface low in Illinois to western pa. Keeping things interesting.

Every run since 0z last night on the GFS has nudged NW. This thing is going to cut....as usual.

If its going to be an ice storm then I welcome the cut scenario. Aint nobody got time for that shit.

Yup, Thats an incredible amount of precip. And just for shits, here is the GFS frozen output map. You don't see numbers like that often. Even dividing them by 2 still yields impressive totals. Lets see if it can hold for more than 1 run.

Picked up a sloppy inch here and temps were actually 31.8 in my backyard so accumulation wasn’t an issue. I’ll take what I can get. We’ll tack on some lake effect snow showers tonight, another inch or so tomorrow night then maybe another couple inches tues into Wednesday. With the pattern we are in this is a miracle little 5 day stretch of winter before the parade of rain storms move in.

Things aren't adding up with this storm. The models have this changing to snow at 10am (or earlier according to the NWS) which just seems like a stretch with max diurnal heating occurring at that time and boundary temps in the mid 30's. I'm sensing a repeat of December 14th where we just couldn't get anything to accumulate. We really needed this storm to slow down by about 8-12 hours to have a chance.

I don’t even know why I post NAM outputs (especially after that 12/14 storm bit us in the ass) but there was a very sizable improvement from 18z to 0z tonight. Im locking in 2 inches for KROC!

I agree with everything you posted. I was actually thinking of pulling some of that data to graph myself but had forgotten buffalo already had it neatly packaged for us. It is a very good metric to use when judging the strength of a winter. The 2010’s definitely look ugly on paper!

Burlington Vt NWS just posted this depressing graphic.

agreed, 1.8" sounds like heaven after these past few weeks.

Be careful, thats just a trend line that isnt taking the average snowfall! It's starting at the amount for that first year.

One last interesting thing to note while I'm wasting my lunch graphing things is the fairly cyclic pattern that ROC has had since 2010. Looks like we have about a 4 to 5 year frequency oscillating between big years and weak years. If that pattern holds true, we are currently heading into a couple of crap seasons (which as of right now, seems at least plausible)

I hear this sentiment so much. Peoples memories really want to remember things for the best (or at least different than reality). The old timers always talk about the crazy winters we had in the 40's, 50's and 60's, however there is just no data to back it up. I think a lot of it has to do with how well we can handle snow now and predict snow these days compared to back then. A typical well forecasted storm now might have been crippling 50 years ago if it hit at the wrong time and couldn't be cleaned up well. I know that there are a lot of subtleties that I'm glazing over, but there just isn't historic data to back up the idea that winters used to be MUCH colder and snowier. That said, there appears to be a small downward trend in snow amounts over the past 20 years (which I would be willing to bet has something to do with Anthropogenic Global Warming), but its barely statistically significant. Furthermore, if you graph snow totals in the ROC since 1940 you'll actually see our yearly snowfall average trending upwards (however this is somewhat skewed by very low numbers in the 40s). Anyway, there is a lot of data to digest out there, but not much points to winters being weaker now than they used to.

i've been trying to convince my group of friends to just bail on it altogether. The tickets were only 50 bucks and paid for months ago. They don't seem to realize how lame and wet this is going to be, haha. If we do go, I'll be the best prepared, that I can guarantee.

This Bills game forecast still looks like a train wreck. The onset has been pulling back a little with each run so we might escape the rain during the tailgating portion of this useless affair, haha. Not looking forward to this.

You had a rough few years of horrible transitional events but I think West Seneca is ground zero for the heaviest snow Lake Erie can produce in the absolute picture perfect event. They just seem to be exceedingly rare as of late. What was their number in the 2014 storm?

It's just weird because that looked like a point and click from the NWS and they certainly show at least a 40% chance during that period. oh well.

It's ****ing gross. And how does it show 0 precip Sat-Monday with that large storm barreling through??

Agreed, even the 4 inches we had here held on longer than expected. Shaded areas are still holding an inch. I'm guessing the super low sun angle and very dry air (dewpoint barely crept above freezing and only for a couple hours the past few days) has aided in the staying power.

You're right about the Delta T's because after I made my post I realized I hadnt checked the 850's and they are just barely cold enough for a good response.