DeltaT13

For all the doom and gloom, this has to be one of the more robust NW flow Lake Ontario responses that I've seen in awhile. It's amazing what an abnormally warm lake, deep arctic air, synoptic moisture and upstream seeding can do. I have almost forgot it was even possible. I will enjoy these few hours while they last. Currently snowing pretty damn hard in ROC, we might be nearing an inch on the ground now.

I'm sure 80 percent of the mountain has 10" A few whales under the guns probably have 49" A misleading statistic to say the least.

All these special weather statements are ridiculous. It's above freezing pretty much everywhere with less than a quarter inch of snow on the ground, wet roads, and visibility of half mile or better with light snizzle. I think they are just bored at this point.

Wow, thats an ugly look. Mid and upper 30's at 2am all the way into Canada. It's now knocking on Mont Tremblants door, but hey its good to be near the taint.

I mean its just not the best setup, a surface low passing 100 miles to our North, not good. You can't blame them for that. In a good winter this would be a borderline nuisance event for much of the CWA.

Hey BW, this is a good site to track the high peaks snowpack of both Vermont and NY as Mount Mansfield is a great metric for all the high peaks snowpack as its historically holds snow from January to April every single year. As you can see, it's currently flirting with historically low snow right now but that should change dramatically over the next few weeks, or at least I hope it does. https://www.matthewparrilla.com/mansfield-stake/

Oh I'm good, the only question is how good. 5 inches of POW, or 12 inches!!

I feel horrible for upstate but there is no better time for a storm to nudge north than this weekend when I'll be in Mont Treblant Quebec! Would love to catch a solid powder day as they have been non-existent on the East Coast this year. Fingers crossed. Some of the earlier runs were good for both NY and Quebec, would have loved to see one of them come to fruition.

I think tropical tidbits was taken offline when too many models indicated that our area might actually get snow. They know that one of their algorithms must be broken.

This is the one, not a lot science behind it but a pattern is a pattern. I'd love to see that pattern get smashed with a strong February.

Nice estimate B Dubs!!

You can see a pocket of very strong winds surging through central Ohio right now. Will be interested to see what Columbus gusts to over the next hour. That should give a good estimate of what we can expect around 6-7

Check out the difference between the appearance of this storm during initialization on the models VS real life. Quite the difference. The storm certainly looks far stronger and wetter in the models. It’s actually has quite the ragged precip shield right now.

Everything you mentioned sounds perfect. Frequent bouts of 2-3”, frigid temps, and prolonged cold to hold snow pack. Sun angle is not in play in February. We only have to go back 6 years to when we had a full 30 day consecutive period where we didnt crack freezing, and it happened in February. If that doesn’t make you happy after what we’ve been through the past 6 weeks; I’m convinced you’re just trolling.

The only reason green shows up is because the models get corrupted from lake temps that are above freezing. It’s not going to rain with the 522 line that far south. We’d be better off not relying on the models to determine precip type in certain scenarios

One of the local stations just posted this which is slightly misleading (they do make some effort to address that) but does show that at least I’ll get a few hours of joy from this otherwise useless storm system.

Well climate change is 100 percent real. You can debate how much influence man has in it if you want, but the data is pretty damn obvious IMO. I had 5 inches on the ground to start the day yesterday. 10 inches is a bit inflated for the week but honestly not as bad as usual. Measured at the the right intervals I’ll say it was plausible.

What a snoozer this giant storm ends up being for us. We couldnt even get a heavy rain event out of it (it pains me to even be mentioning heavy rain on 1/10 but to me its better than nothing). Weeks upon weeks of boring weather.

We definitely didnt get one together but we briefly talked about it. I think we struggled to find a centralized location. It was a couple pages of chatter a few years back but would still be an interesting idea.

This actually isnt the worst idea. Upstate NY Weather forum ski trip?? Although, we failed to even get our Upstate NY dinner and meet greet off the ground last year (or was that the year before) so perhaps this asking a bit too much. Would be fun, especially if we had a storm to geek out about.

I'm going to Mont Tremblant next weekend. Would love to see something like this come to fruition.

I agree on a longer time frame but the past 3 months I thought the GFS did well.

I think the GFS has out performed the Euro 9 times out of 10 this fall/winter. Surprised to hear you say this.

Also, I’d love to own a seasonal home in the mountains of Cali to ride out brutal winter storms. Sounds perfect actually. The other 8 months of the year when nothing happen would be lame though.

Yes, I think extreme weather is fascinating. I thought all weather lovers kind of understood that. Strong winds, flooding rains, crippling heat, frigid cold, severe storms, droughts, blizzards, ice events....I find them all interesting in their own way. I love to see the way the world reacts to this unstoppable force. I Don’t hope my home is damaged but my love and interest of weather always wants to experience the most intense thing a weather event can bring, and if I end up with some collateral damage along the way, I understand that too. That said we live in an incredibly safe location (upstate ny that is). When I say I want to see heavy rain and floods it’s cool because the creek on my street grows to 5 times it’s size and some local roads get water covered (that’s about the extent of it) I’m not rooting for biblical flooding and the death of thousands of people. It’s a fun little winter storm, heavy rains are better than gray skies and nothing.