DeltaT13

18z wasn’t good for me. Miss the nor’easter and the follow up clipper is rain, at least on the gfs.

As an off topic side note, just saw that Kobe Bryant died today. That's super sad

Pretty much any direction you turn down there has a picture of a lifetime. Its insane. The scale of those mountains is had to imagine, but that little winding road will give you some reference.

We can definitely take this DM or FB messenger. I think we talked on there once before when we were going to meet up at Holiday Valley. Anyway, a super express version of my trip Day1 - Land in Auckland, hiked Mt Edna volcanic crater. Ate meat pies, then drove to Piha Beach to swim in the Tasman Sea in giant waves! Day2 - Drove to Waitomo Glow worm caves. Rappelled into the caves blackwater rafted and spelunked a bit, saw a million glow worms. Then drove to Lake Taupo that night and checked into our airbnb Day3 - We were supposed to hike the Rongario Volcano but it was canceled because of bad weather. This was actually a good thing as we needed a rest day. We spent the day soaking in geothermal pools then did a night on the town and got pretty wrecked. Day4 - Drove to Rotorua and toured the steam vents and National gardens, hopped a flight in the afternoon to Christchurch. Once in christchurch, we checked into our hostel and went out to watch a big Rugby game that the whole country was watching Day5 - Drove to Mt Cook and hiked the 6 mile (roundtrip) trail to the Glacier base where we drank single malt scotched cooled by glacier ice. The views were INSANE, the hike was perfect. Day6 - Drove to Lake Wanaka for the afternoon then continued down to Queenstown where we checked into our Air BNB and had a wild night on the town. Queenstown has a great night life. Day7- Drove to Milford sound and took a boat out to the Ocean and back. The drive was insanely long for a one day round trip but the views were the most amazing places I've ever seen in my life. This is the place they filmed Lord of Rings. Amazing temperate rainforest with glacial topped mountains. Day8 - Bungee Jumped off the Kawarau bridge, then spent a day in town seeing the sites. Queenstown is an awesome little city. The remarkable mountains are fantastic. Day9 - Flew back to Auckland and started the long trek home..

Yes it is, a small slice of the cost difference. A round of 4 beers at the bar was usually 60-70 dollars NZ. I did two weeks there in 2018 and hit all the big stops. Was a once in a lifetime trip and blew me away. Let me know if you have questions.

Those pressures are at least realistic. We are still in the game, haha. But we have a really really long way to go.

I felt alright about this run. It’s a just a hair away from a perfect track for us. I get nervous seeing it move towards a cutter but it’s better than a complete miss which was in the cards a few runs ago.

The storm is obviously over amplified that far out and somewhat bogus. A 958 low at that latitude low is exceedingly rare even in the realm of all the giant historic nor’easters. Several standard deviations out of the norm. I don’t get too caught up on strength, just looking for the timing of the two short waves and a nice cold high somewhere over eastern Canada right now.

Surface temps don’t really go sub freezing for several days on the route you’ll be taking home. I think it’s a complete non issue for you. Should be wet roads start to finish.

I mean it’s there every time. It’s just a tricky phase, and both storms that need to phase are still in the pacific. In some sense there is startling consistency so far out, that southern stream storm is always there. It’s the northern stream that only needs to only shift a bit for a huge storm or near miss.

You forgot the part where we see a pattern change or monster nor’Easter at hour 240

Dang, we can high five as I check out and you check in. I'm going from the 2-5th, driving home on the 6th. You appear to be there during a slightly more favorable time period, but we've been chasing fantasy winter weather 10 days out for months now so we shall see what actually comes to fruition. The fact that there is a strong miller A lurking around next weekend for many runs now is at least something we can track.

Good eye Tim, sure enough its a nasty cutter just a day later. LOLz, this winter is just brutal. I've got my Whiteface trip next weekend. Only half the mountain is open and things are trending in the wrong direction already. Pure garbage.....

I still have a very robust 6 inch snowpack. There is almost no sign of melting even though temps topped out at 37 today. Those obscenely low dewpoints in the single digits certainly saved the day.

That’s where we eloped to as well!

It boggles my mind that accuweather has the balls to post this with the models currently all over the board. Amazing really...

Dave mostly covered this, but I don't really see any issue with travel this weekend especially because 90 percent of your driving will be on major highways like the I90 which are very well maintained. Surface temps will likely be 32 or above so roads should be mostly wet with little if any snow cover. Freezing rain isn't a concern at all. You should be good to go, just be prepared for some nuisance snow and lowered visibility.

Also, for any glade lovers on this board. The glades at mont tremblant blew me away. Long, well maintained, super technical. And tons of them. Might be the best I’ve seen in the east.

I questioned posting that pic but it did show how cold it was and how nice an outdoor tub is. And for the record, that wasn’t me in the pic...

Haha. I would happily never win again if we could get some long cold winters. I’m definitely pretty depressed about this winter but it happens. At least I salvaged an amazing weekend in mont tremblant, that was crazy lucky to get that storm.

Furthermore, the last time Rochester won was 2012 which was a historically warm winter. Therefore one can draw a conclusion that a mild winter favors Rochester as a relative hot spot during low snow winters. We cash in on the weak nickel and dime NW lake snows while cuse and buffalo typically need big events to boost their numbers (which are obviously lacking in these years). We are also positioned well to take advantage of weaker systems where cuse might be rain and buffalo is too far west to get significant precip. Rochester has also only won a handful of times in history. So winning twice in under ten years on very warm years is a bit disconcerting. And let’s not forget about the questionable measuring technique, location, or personnel at the roc airport influencing the numbers This is certainly an interesting discussion with no intention of saying cuse isn’t the mathematical snowfall champ, which is obviously indisputable.

Why did you just melt down? Rochester is strongly poised to win the most snowfall for a contest that has been going on for decades. It’s an interesting discussion. We all the know the overall averages and where Syracuse stands. He’s just making and observation.

I kept seeing stories about a blizzard in Newfoundland this past weekend so I did some digging. Check out this bad boy of a system!! The part of the video link pertaining to the snow starts around the 33 second mark. Quite jealous.

Well I’m in position in Mont Tremblant. Looks like a very nice spot for this storm track, it’s incredible how lucky I got with this trip considering the winter we’ve had! It’s beautiful here but quite cold, -7f....we still got in a nice soak in the outdoor hot tub though! low end forecast guess here - 5” high end amount 12” expecting 7” but I have no idea about local orographic influences so I’m hoping to be surprised.

The way I handle it these days is by enjoying whatever it brings. If it snows, great...I’ll snowboard and skate and do winter stuff. If it’s warm I’ll take advantage of weather and do outdoor projects. I love winter and I love summer. Just do whatever you can to take advantage of each day as it comes. We live in a place where winters can be mild ever so often. Make the best of it.