DeltaT13

What a storm for the UP!

March 8th, 2017 is one of my top 10 favorite weather events that I personally experienced. Very atypical setup too, extremely strong diurnally driven event the day after the cold front passage, with not a lot of hype leading up to it and then it over performed big time. Just a crushing windstorm. I think we had 5-6 consecutive hours with winds gusts above 60 and obviously that peak gust of 81mph which is my PR.

0zGFS is holding serve and actually a touch stronger. From 18z to 0z Monday ROC is forecast to have a 20mb rise in 6 hours, very impressive!!

Great point. There are literally 100s of millions of dead/soon to be dead ash tree across this state. They will definitely account for a lot of damage in the coming years

It will be a very significant seiche with moderate to severe flooding if todays 12GFS verified. The lake is definitively higher now than it was in the fall. The lack of significant ice all winter allowed the shores to get battered more than normal so dunes and breakwalls may be in very poor shape right now. In the fall, things tend to be as beefed up and as good of shape as any time as Summer has much lighter winds and conducive weather for repair. This storm is also long duration which spells bad news for many in vulnerable locations. I would be taking action now if I had a place with any sort of risk.

This storm has the ear marks of a real doozy. Things working in its favor include a real nice pocket of isallobaric pressure rises sliding through WNY and the fact that its still deepening significantly as it passes by to our NW. Things working against it would be timing of the frontal passage, it currently looks to occur a tad too late to fully utilize diurnal mixing when the steepest lapse rates begin to move through; this only needs to change by a few hours to make a big difference though. High wind events in late Spring have the ability to really tap the high sun angle and create very deep mixing bringing down the strongest winds. The Niagara frontier is incredibly battle hardened over the past 5 years with over a dozen events with winds above 60mph, several above 70mph, and one above 80mph, so that works in our favor of clearing out the weak and damaged trees and limbs, thus limiting damage. On the other hand, a lot of trees have budded out significantly and that adds weight and resistance, plus anything over 70mph starts to take down even the strongest trees. Antecedent conditions also aren't overly wet, but we might get a good soaking in the warm sector which will certain soften things up. A very fun and exciting storm to be tracking after winter sputtered away to nothing....

Rochester is probably going to add a couple inches to the yearly snowfall today. I can’t recall the last time it was snowing this hard and sticking in April. Probably more recent than I realize but I’ll have to dig out the weather journal confirm. A cold crappy April will make sheltering in place a lot more tolerable. Once the weather really breaks people are going to lose their minds staying inside.

I would definitely call it graupel. Sleet by definition should be fully melted and then refrozen into virtually pure ice balls/pellets. Surface temps should be below freezing for textbook sleet too. I like the suggestion of sloppel though, haha.

Every single summer festival all they way through August has been canceled in Rochester. I can’t imagine it will be long before the state fair finds the same sad fate.

That Monday storm looks like one hell of a windstorm! That’s a really deep storm with a perfect storm track.

Correct, Bernie would have been nice but the US isnt ready for socialism just yet, a bit ahead of his time so to speak. Joe Biden will have to do but certainly has a better chance of losing than winning at this time. To be honest, I would take any single republican candidate over trump. Literally any other person, anyone, but Trump. This isnt about dems or republican, I just want a coherent normal human with some form of empathy and intelligence.

It always easy to remember that one because its basically the only "lie" in his entire 8 year career. Trump is over 17,000 blatant lies in 3 years, often making more than a dozen an hour. Try to keep up.. Anyway, hows the hoax working out for you? LOLz

Thats a very interesting article. A damn shame it had to be spun into a strange trump dick sucking direction. Trump doesnt know an ion, from an electron, or how iron has any part of human blood chemistry. Someone much smarter probably told him it had hope and now he is somehow getting praise as if he came up with the medicine or idea to use it as a treatment himself. We don't need any medical advice from any president, Whether its Trump or Obama. Leave that shit to the professionals who have spent decades working and studying in a lab. Cool article, shitty spin. Hope we can get this virus figured out soon.

4805 cases. 685 deaths Italy definitely seems to have peaked scroll down for nice graphics https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

Looks like they have truly peaked and have begun the slow decline. A long brutal decline at that. What a long lasting nasty bug for those who catch it and develop moderate to severe symptoms. Seems like 3-4 weeks until recovered.

Coworkers wife is in ICU. Expected to be on a ventilator for another week.

I remember stumbling across the stat that Greenland has a population over 50,000 people. Kind of blew my mind. Lots of little harbors and fishing ports/villages.

It's not a misrepresentation, its simply another piece of the puzzle. I can infer accurate trends in either graph. Those graphs distinctly show when transmission rates drop off, typically as a result of stringent social distancing. Link me some useful graphs that show the total available infectable population, I'd be interested to see those too.

I already posted a far more accurate way to track it, and it shows a similar thing. https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?fbclid=IwAR0rJQtPzhVZjylG_TcF51RlEVCs6j8B0y11cT4t75-PjvYWEOjVeItMJuA This is just another visual to show how far outside the norm in terms of absolute numbers that we are right now. (Half the time, twice the numbers, it's not pretty) China likely under reported, but what if they didn't? Will we ever know? We we should just throw them out altogether.

That sure as heck isnt flattening for the US.

This just seems wildly hard to believe. The solution to pollution is dilution. After even a few seconds of air flow, you have to imagine concentrations are dropping dramatically as air moves and mixes. Secondly, there is an infectious dose threshold. Just because a virus can be detected, does not mean it can be contracted. Point in case is that cruise ship where they detected COVID19 17 days after. Sure, it may have been detected (DNA remnants), but could you get sick from it, seems unlikely if not impossible. Anyway, I don't know what magic room that doctor was in but air moves, and as it moves it dilutes. I see little risk to just breathing in normal air if no one else is within 6 feet.

I agree with pretty much all of this. Here is the big question.. How well do we really know the flu numbers? What if the denominator is actually far larger than we realize because similar asymptomatic carriers and mild symptoms. In that scenario, COVID19 is once again 20-30 times more deadly. I really wish we could just get some solid data but its a daunting task.

This a great 7 minute video on exponential growth and a really nice way they have found to graph it that exposes when exponential growth slows and begins to move linearly. I highly recommend giving it a watch. https://digg.com/video/coronavirus-exponential-growth-graph?fbclid=IwAR3EG6jWfBL-RDk-DWTbWBwtp62W37WLz7L9a1S6rBjz-UDseqNXR6nIOuM Using their technique, it would appear Italy is close to slowing this thing down while the US is a rocket ship. https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?fbclid=IwAR3vFckAwNVY8YFm7bFjHLPB-AgEOQDMnz0YpnCeHRE27wWOVftYB_qjxVU

Another story casting serious doubt on China’s numbers. https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/wuhan-deaths-03272020182846.html