DeltaT13

I agree. The models transfer the bulk of the storms to closer to the surface low as nocturnal factors take over but it’ll be a fight between the two. Wish I could stay up and watch it all unfold but I need sleep. Not feeling good in my position for heavy rain, but we are still in play at least. I think Jamestown is in a prime spot and you’re on the hairy edge.

It’s a really nice system but my instinct just says it’s going to dive southeast into the more unstable air and miss the entire Ontario Lake plain. The 0z run was just a significant jump south. Booooo

It's not looking good but these types of systems are notoriously finnicky to forecast. There also appear to be sharp gradients to the precip fields and storms in the high res models so some places might get clobbered while 10 miles away is spared. Keep an eye on the radar when you first wake up and you'll know if you are screwed or not as the system should be developed and ballistic by that time.

Will be interested to see if selfish boneheaded Americans can pull this off. And I say this because here are the countries we are comparing right now...

I figured that must have been what you were referring too. The last couple days of runs have slowly honed in on WNY as being right in the crosshairs for this MCS/low pressure system. The latest run brings three distinct bands of heavy showers/storms through WNY from about dawn through 11am. These things usually start to weaken a few hours after sunrise, so I hope we can squeeze it in before they fall apart. Lots of variability in a setup like this, but as of right now we are sitting pretty for a good soaking and a decent light show. Massive amounts of moisture to work with!

I"m just playing devils advocate here, it's certainly a complicated topic but gyms are a unique place. Using a post you made, your first day back at the gym you planned to go for a massive 3 hour session where you would be breathing heavy for hours, possibly coughing at times if you really exerted yourself. You would be spitting and grunting during heavy lifts. You would be sweating all over the place. You would be lifting up and touching tons of shared items and objects. Gyms are inherently ****ing disgusting and absolute germ factories. Add on to that the fact that people spend orders of magnitude longer in a gym than a regular store and you have a unique space that requires additional measures. What if you had COVID-19 and weren't showing symptoms yet and went to the gym for your 3 hour super session.....it would not be good, and this type of thing will certainly happen Now lets compare a home depot trip. I walk in, grab my stuff, talk to no one, virtually touch nothing, dont sweat, don't grunt, don't breath heavy and leave 10 minutes later (and I wear a mask the entire time). I see a very big difference. Gyms are on a whole different level, and should be treated that way.

What time period are you looking at? I'm not seeing much but sure do love elevated convection.

In a nutshell.

One can only hope. Nothing personal but he’s the most competent governor in the country right now and tamped down the biggest hot spot in the world in under 2 months. I hope he sticks to his guns for the duration of this thing and continues being strict. I’m blown away that people can’t just take 6-12 months off from traveling and being reckless. It’s pretty wild but exactly what I’d expect from spoiled Americans. I’ve barely left the house for 3 months and I’m thriving. Working on projects, gardening, building shit, fixing things, and doing a lot of reading. It’s a shame people can’t follow directions and not be selfish. Oh well...

Only 14 locations received over an inch out of 190 cities on that list. Looks like .5-1" for most, with a few isolated spots over 1" and a few spots well under a half inch, myself included. I just barely scratched out a quarter inch. Kind of underwhelming. Here is hoping to more widespread rain this weekend. EW YORK ...Allegany County... 2 SW Alfred 0.84 800 AM 6/24 ALERT 4 SW West Almond 0.75 700 AM 6/24 CoCoRaHS Wellsville Airport 0.72 756 AM 6/24 ASOS Wellsville 0.70 500 AM 6/24 Co-Op Observer 2 ENE Wellsville 0.69 700 AM 6/24 CoCoRaHS Rushford 0.59 800 AM 6/24 Co-Op Observer 1 N Belmont 0.43 755 AM 6/24 NYSM Fillmore 0.42 824 AM 6/24 AWS 3 NNW Wellsville 0.41 824 AM 6/24 AWS 6 NW Grove 0.39 755 AM 6/24 NYSM Belmont 0.35 825 AM 6/24 AWS ...Cattaraugus County... 1 ENE Olean 1.20 755 AM 6/24 NYSM Olean 0.85 825 AM 6/24 AWS 4 E Franklinville 0.76 700 AM 6/24 CoCoRaHS SSE Ischua 0.71 700 AM 6/24 CoCoRaHS Cattaraugus 0.57 800 AM 6/24 Co-Op Observer 4 N Allegany 0.55 824 AM 6/24 AWS East Randolph 0.43 825 AM 6/24 AWS Salamanca 0.42 515 AM 6/24 HADS 4 ESE Randolph 0.36 755 AM 6/24 NYSM Little Valley 0.36 700 AM 6/24 Co-Op Observer 1 SW Franklinville 0.26 600 AM 6/24 HADS 6 SSE Delevan 0.22 755 AM 6/24 NYSM ...Cayuga County... Port Byron 0.06 825 AM 6/24 AWS ...Chautauqua County... Mayville 1.77 600 AM 6/24 HADS 1 SSE Silver Creek 1.13 700 AM 6/24 CoCoRaHS Silver Creek 1.06 730 AM 6/24 Co-Op Observer 2 SW Fredonia 1.05 755 AM 6/24 NYSM 1 WNW Fredonia 1.05 500 AM 6/24 CoCoRaHS Dunkirk Airport 0.93 753 AM 6/24 ASOS Dunkirk 1S 0.84 700 AM 6/24 Co-Op Observer 1 SW Sinclairville 0.82 600 AM 6/24 HADS NE Clymer 0.79 755 AM 6/24 NYSM 1 WSW Jamestown 0.73 800 AM 6/24 CoCoRaHS 9 NE Wattsburg 0.68 600 AM 6/24 HADS 2 E Jamestown 0.68 600 AM 6/24 CoCoRaHS Jamestown 4ENE 0.58 700 AM 6/24 Co-Op Observer WSW Falconer 0.56 700 AM 6/24 CoCoRaHS Brocton 0.46 824 AM 6/24 AWS 1 N Gerry 0.41 750 AM 6/24 CoCoRaHS Frewsburg 0.40 825 AM 6/24 AWS 5 NNW Jamestown 0.34 600 AM 6/24 CoCoRaHS Jamestown Airport 0.06 805 AM 6/24 AWOS ...Erie County... 1 SSE Eden 1.28 700 AM 6/24 CoCoRaHS 1 NNW Brant 1.27 755 AM 6/24 NYSM ENE East Aurora 1.11 700 AM 6/24 CoCoRaHS 1 ENE Eden 1.08 825 AM 6/24 AWS 3 NNE East Aurora 1.06 700 AM 6/24 CoCoRaHS 2 NW West Seneca 1.05 430 PM 6/23 CoCoRaHS 4 SSW East Aurora 1.01 755 AM 6/24 NYSM 1 S Hamburg 0.97 700 AM 6/24 CoCoRaHS 3 SSE East Aurora 0.95 720 AM 6/24 CoCoRaHS 4 E Williamsville 0.94 700 AM 6/24 CoCoRaHS 3 SE West Seneca 0.91 600 AM 6/24 CoCoRaHS North Collins 0.90 825 AM 6/24 AWS 1 NNE West Seneca 0.87 600 AM 6/24 CoCoRaHS Wales 0.86 700 AM 6/24 Co-Op Observer WSW Hamburg 0.82 700 AM 6/24 CoCoRaHS S Depew 0.79 600 AM 6/24 CoCoRaHS 3 NE Cheektowaga 0.79 800 AM 6/24 CoCoRaHS 3 WSW Elma 0.72 700 AM 6/24 CoCoRaHS 3 E Williamsville 0.62 700 AM 6/24 CoCoRaHS 1 N Clarence Center 0.62 700 AM 6/24 CoCoRaHS ESE Clarence Center 0.62 700 AM 6/24 CoCoRaHS 2 SSW Blasdell 0.58 700 AM 6/24 CoCoRaHS 2 NW Cheektowaga 0.57 700 AM 6/24 CoCoRaHS 10 NE Buffalo 0.52 755 AM 6/24 NYSM 2 SE Glenwood 0.49 739 AM 6/24 CoCoRaHS Buffalo Airport 0.48 754 AM 6/24 ASOS Lake View 1NE 0.42 800 AM 6/24 Co-Op Observer 1 SSE Kenmore 0.34 825 AM 6/24 AWS ESE Kenmore 0.32 735 AM 6/24 CoCoRaHS Springville 0.31 826 AM 6/24 AWS 1 NW Kenmore 0.31 700 AM 6/24 CoCoRaHS 3 NE Tonawanda 0.19 600 AM 6/24 CoCoRaHS 3 NE Lancaster 0.15 1000 AM 6/23 CoCoRaHS ...Genesee County... Alabama 0.67 725 AM 6/24 RAWS 2 W Darien Center 0.58 600 AM 6/24 CoCoRaHS 3 ENE Batavia 0.53 755 AM 6/24 NYSM 3 WSW Batavia 0.40 800 AM 6/24 CoCoRaHS 2 NE Stafford 0.37 700 AM 6/24 CoCoRaHS Le Roy 1E 0.35 800 AM 6/24 Co-Op Observer Le Roy 0.20 824 AM 6/24 AWS Batavia 0.10 756 AM 6/24 AWOS ...Jefferson County... 2 S Cape Vincent 0.32 755 AM 6/24 NYSM 1 S Wellesley Island 0.25 755 AM 6/24 NYSM Fort Drum Airfield 0.14 816 AM 6/24 AWOS 1 NE Belleville 0.11 755 AM 6/24 NYSM ENE West Carthage 0.08 700 AM 6/24 CoCoRaHS Watertown Airport 0.07 756 AM 6/24 ASOS 3 N Philadelphia 0.07 755 AM 6/24 NYSM ...Lewis County... 1 NW Constableville 0.70 600 AM 6/24 CoCoRaHS Chases Lake 0.61 600 AM 6/24 Co-Op Observer 1 SSW Glenfield 0.58 600 AM 6/24 CoCoRaHS 11 ENE Croghan 0.58 755 AM 6/24 NYSM Highmarket 0.57 646 AM 6/24 Co-Op Observer 5 WSW Harrisburg 0.49 755 AM 6/24 NYSM 1 NW Glenfield 0.32 755 AM 6/24 NYSM 1 E Osceola 0.29 755 AM 6/24 NYSM 6 N Croghan 0.25 700 AM 6/24 CoCoRaHS 4 S Carthage 0.18 755 AM 6/24 NYSM ...Livingston County... 1 NW Avon 0.67 800 AM 6/24 HADS 2 ESE York 0.66 755 AM 6/24 NYSM 1 ENE Dansville 0.51 705 AM 6/24 CoCoRaHS Hemlock 0.50 945 PM 6/23 Co-Op Observer Dansville Airport 0.41 754 AM 6/24 ASOS 2 S Dansville 0.25 700 AM 6/24 HADS Livonia 0.18 824 AM 6/24 AWS 2 W Mount Morris 0.10 300 AM 6/24 HADS ...Monroe County... 3 W Webster 1.37 516 AM 6/24 CoCoRaHS Webster 2NE 0.87 800 PM 6/23 Co-Op Observer 1 WSW Brockport 0.74 755 AM 6/24 NYSM 1 SE Hilton 0.57 700 AM 6/24 CoCoRaHS 4 ENE Irondequoit 0.46 825 AM 6/24 AWS 5 WNW Rochester 0.45 700 AM 6/24 CoCoRaHS 6 ESE Rochester 0.39 600 AM 6/24 CoCoRaHS 1 NW Rush 0.37 755 AM 6/24 NYSM Hilton 0.33 825 AM 6/24 AWS Fairport 0.26 828 AM 6/24 AWS 2 NE Honeoye Falls 0.26 700 AM 6/24 CoCoRaHS NNW East Rochester 0.24 700 AM 6/24 CoCoRaHS Rochester Airport 0.23 754 AM 6/24 ASOS 1 WNW Irondequoit 0.21 825 AM 6/24 AWS Pittsford 0.16 824 AM 6/24 AWS 5 S Gates-North Gate 0.15 700 AM 6/24 HADS 2 W Scottsville 0.12 700 AM 6/24 HADS Churchville 0.07 800 AM 6/24 HADS ...Niagara County... 4 S Lockport 0.48 755 AM 6/24 CoCoRaHS 2 NE North Tonawanda 0.34 500 AM 6/24 CoCoRaHS Niagara Falls 0.32 800 AM 6/24 Co-Op Observer North Tonawanda 0.32 700 AM 6/24 Co-Op Observer 1 NE Lockport 0.26 700 AM 6/24 CoCoRaHS 2 W Burt 0.25 755 AM 6/24 NYSM 2 SSE Lockport 0.24 600 AM 6/24 CoCoRaHS Niagara Falls Airpor 0.22 753 AM 6/24 ASOS Middleport 0.20 825 AM 6/24 AWS Sanborn 4NE 0.14 700 AM 6/24 Co-Op Observer Wilson 0.12 825 AM 6/24 AWS ...Ontario County... Honeoye 0.52 645 AM 6/24 Co-Op Observer 6 WNW Vine Valley 0.32 824 AM 6/24 AWS West Bloomfield 1S 0.32 700 AM 6/24 Co-Op Observer Bristol Harbour 0.13 700 AM 6/24 Co-Op Observer 4 NNW Clifton Spring 0.11 755 AM 6/24 NYSM 3 NE South Bristol 0.10 755 AM 6/24 NYSM 3 S Canandaigua 0.10 800 AM 6/24 Co-Op Observer Geneva 0.05 700 AM 6/24 Co-Op Observer ...Orleans County... Albion 0.65 825 AM 6/24 AWS Medina 0.43 600 AM 6/24 Co-Op Observer 4 E Medina 0.35 755 AM 6/24 NYSM 6 N Holley 0.29 825 AM 6/24 AWS ...Oswego County... 7 NNW Redfield 0.59 755 AM 6/24 NYSM 3 NE Central Square 0.34 755 AM 6/24 NYSM Lacona 0.34 825 AM 6/24 AWS Mexico 2SW 0.21 700 AM 6/24 Co-Op Observer W Fulton 0.18 110 AM 6/24 CoCoRaHS 4 SSE Lacona 0.16 700 AM 6/24 CoCoRaHS Oswego Airport 0.16 754 AM 6/24 ASOS 2 WSW Oswego 0.12 755 AM 6/24 NYSM ...Wayne County... 5 WNW Ontario 0.79 755 AM 6/24 NYSM 5 NE Webster 0.68 700 AM 6/24 CoCoRaHS 3 N Macedon 0.33 825 AM 6/24 AWS 3 ESE Macedon 0.16 721 AM 6/24 CoCoRaHS Newark Lock 28B 0.09 700 AM 6/24 Co-Op Observer Palmyra 0.09 825 AM 6/24 AWS ...Wyoming County... Portageville 1W 0.53 600 AM 6/24 Co-Op Observer Yorkshire 0.34 825 AM 6/24 AWS 5 NW Warsaw 0.25 755 AM 6/24 NYSM 3 W Wyoming 0.23 700 AM 6/24 Co-Op Observer Warsaw 4W 0.22 700 AM 6/24 Co-Op Observer 4 S Castile 0.08 800 AM 6/24 HADS

Gates has gotten shafted particularly well the last 11 days. Pretty good donut hole that I’m smack in the middle of. Good grief. Picked up .25” today.

I didn’t mean to post this on the banter page. Haha

I'm hoping that first batch of prefrontal garbage doesnt sap all the energy. Was hoping it would fall apart and let the main front utilize all the CAPE. Oh well, I guess I should just be happy with any amount of precip. Hail would also be a major downer in my backyard as my gardens are looking about as good as they ever have with all the time and attention I've poured into it this year.

arg, I'm just missing out again! This is brutal. And I can't chase cause I'm back to work finally.

I’m using more water in the last few weeks than I have in some entire years. It’s pretty parched. These storms have been so hit or miss. I missed out on 3/4 of an inch by 10 miles today. Would have been nice.

Letchworth got clobbered by a stationary/back building storm today. Nearly 4 inches in an hour.

Check out Northern Maine today, under heat advisories. Already 88 degrees in Caribou at 11am with a forecast high of 96. Pretty amazing that Northern Maine will be hotter than any of us will get all summer. What a wild spring it has been.

Thats a weird take. What exactly has changed? The disease is still just as dangerous, still just as contagious, still no good treatment. People are just getting bored and reckless. The people you speak of are critical thinkers who understand risk and have patience. The phases don't mean any less risk if you catch this, just a slightly lower chance of being infected. Also, aren't you the guy who continually posted updates over and over with the new numbers, basically acting as an arm of media and spreading the fear among this group?

May 25-27, 2013 whiteface mountain summit reported 3 feet of new snow. Absolutely amazing event. And now snow nearly 3 weeks after that date is quite impressive too.

Albany broke an all time coldest 850mb temp record which stood for like 100 years, so the cold this past weekend was borderline historic. I guess it all adds up and it makes the high peaks all that more awesome that they can get winter weather 10 months a year.

I have a friend that is slowly chugging through the 46 peaks and he was up there this past Saturday working on some peaks and took some video of pretty good snow showers. I've never heard of snow in the high peaks this deep into Spring/Summer. Is this extremely unusual or does this happen more often than I realized? I was completely blown away by it.

There were many locations available in Rochester starting in early May and there was virtually no wait. I called, made the appointment and got the test a few hours later. The wife and I both got tested and both were negative, boooo. A quick google search seems to show locations in the Buffalo area. The test is covered if you have insurance under the CARES act.

Well it certainly didn’t end up being a dry frontal passage, so that’s good. Definitely needed the rain. Kind of weird to see the squall line flatten and spread out the way it did.

I have to wonder if the seasonal depression many people experience is exacerbated by the fact that we hunker down and basically don't touch the ground or earth for 4-6 months each winter. Certainly intriguing. Also, think about walking around on a carpet in socks. You build up an incredible amount of static electricity that is actually a very high voltage. That can't be good for our circuits. I was wildly skeptical of this idea but am quickly coming around to the idea that it really might be helpful

I'm currently working out a deal with the ROC airport to inflate their numbers even higher next winter to prevent this from happening. I'm thinking we might even get a 200" season if I can round up a enough cash. Taking donations....