DeltaT13

I’ll be the first to admit this rain has been more robust than I expected and the best instabilities are still yet to come! Let’s break some records Kbuf

God damn that’s a beautiful looking band!

No, I'm looking at the 6 hour increments from the ASOS. As of 7am there were at .8" No need to split hairs, they are getting pounded now. Just curious where the discrepancy could be coming from.

Not disagreeing there won't be some big numbers by Friday, but KBUF is only showing 1.17 as of 12 noon. Where are you pulling those numbers from?

It’s because the total precip output maps are notoriously off by a factor of 2 or even 3x. We all know this from the clown maps during all winter storms.

They should be excited because it’s cool but likely a non event from the standpoint of any sort of damage or concern. If we half those totals so they are realistic, 2-3 inches of rain in 24-36 hours after weeks of below normal rainfall is beneficial and likely easily absorbed.

These things have been around forever. Takes very special circumstances to be harmed by them though. A few dozen people die from them each year but it’s almost always from swimming in very warm somewhat stagnant water. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nydailynews.com/news/national/boy-contracts-rare-brain-eating-amoeba-article-1.1426134%3foutputType=amp This was a particularly sad one https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/cdc-brain-eating-amoeba-found-at-whitewater-center-after-teens-death-lauren-seitz/ Having them in the water system has happened before in the south and was Identified when people using Neti pots and didn’t boil the water first died from them. You have to ram them up your nose in large numbers to get sick from them, so it’s not an immediate threat to most but definitely concerning never the less. https://www.pharmacist.com/article/brain-eating-amoeba-death-highlights-importance-safe-neti-pot-use It’s made me think twice before jumping into a freshwater pond. Thankfully they haven’t been reported in Upstate NY

Couple of the recent runs showing a real nice high wind event next week (). Could get a little dodgey with all the trees still holding full foliage. This is also the reason for the delayed cold push. That storm blows up and retrogrades back West in the recent models!

Its definitely early but the peaks above 4000ft see snow in every month except July and August nearly every year or every other year. Wild stuff up in the high peaks region!

I've seen graupel the first week of October a couple times in the last 20 years. Accumulating snow, and feet of accumulating snow is a whole different story (and unlikely to ever happen again in our lifetimes IMO). Definitely looks cold and windy though, will be exciting if it comes to fruition.

30's are definitely on the rare side for Rochester in September, especially over the last 10 years. Here is a nice chart to illustrate it. Rochester never got below 48 for the entire month of September in 2019

i've been tracking my first frost/freeze date closely for about the last 10 years in Rochester. It usually comes sometime in the 3rd or 4th week of October. This is pretty unusual stuff here, almost 5 weeks ahead of schedule for the lake plain folks. It's certainly going to speed up the garden "tear down" time line down this year.

So the Buffalo thermometer (ASOS) went wacky sometime in mid to late June it would seem. It's a shame we will have corrupted numbers forever in the system. Oh well, guess it doesn't really mean all that much in the big picture.

We are right at the average date when Arctic sea ice begins to increase again. Things start to happen fast after this point with much colder nights and fleeting warm days.... Always exciting when we get to this turning point each year. As a side note, its super sad to see that we used to have about 7 million square km of ice on this date, and we now have less than 4 million. A huge ****ing difference....not good...not good at all.

Man you are really hung up on accumulations...(But that is how we are in this forum, lol ) You witnessed a pretty rare event, enjoy it! 3-4 inches is awesome IMO. As you said, its the turn around time that makes this one special. Even one flake 24 hours after temps in the 90's is pretty phenomenal.

No one mentioned the unusual and short duration high wind event from yesterday morning. Unfortunately I wasn’t home but some trees came down in my neighborhood and winds gusted to 60mph at KROC which is impressive. I figured it was related to that MCS somehow but it didn’t seem like a strong enough system. Now I’m seeing it was a “wake low” as the system was collapsing and dying. Quite interesting.

I was suspicious of buffalos temps way back in early July when they were breaking records and no one else was. It just didnt add up.

I’ve had a theory all summer that something changed in regards to the kbuf reporting station. Either the instrument is just off or a new building or parking lot was constructed nearby contributing to the urban heat island effect. During that record breaking week in July, buffalo was consistently warmer than anyone else when they really shouldn’t have been. It’s been odd summer.

Anyone notice how Laura kind of ended up being a non event relatively speaking? Pretty fascinating. I think the Derecho did more damage than Laura. Definitely lucked out on where it hit and its forward speed was important in limiting flooding and overall damage. I'm really not seeing much in terms of catastrophic damage.

HI RES NAM did a phenomenal job with this one. Nailed timing and placement very well.

The atmosphere is certainly ripe. It takes about 2 minutes of sun for its to self destruct into low cumulus, which is happening right now out my window. Dewpoint sitting at 71. Large area of clearing over South Ontario, hopefully this juicy airmass can advect our way.

Looks like we should break into some sun here for a few hours. That will really send the CAPE soaring above 2000-2500j/kg. Might be just what we need for the afternoon storms to work with.

The nocturnal warm frontal rounds of convection always looked a little hit or miss. The main line convection this afternoon will be the primary threat. Still looks like some areas on the lake plain might be spared depending where it sets up.

Pretty Cool story. I can't even imagine doing this! https://www.rochesterfirst.com/recreation/virginia-woman-sets-adirondack-high-peak-record/?fbclid=IwAR1CHtiiW0J_feZ0wcPt_gs0AGZcC4lx1T4zOkwXSkaiUjk1LxXeTiBsMBo

12z High Res NAM has Laura coming ashore at 888mb!......thats not a typo. Obviously not a great model to use for a tropical system but kind of fascinating to see it explode like that on any model.