DeltaT13

Because that's an average, and over the last decade we've had a few seasons with only half that amount. It's no longer a lock that we get crushed with snow anymore. I understand even at 50% it's still a good season for many people outside this region, but we have higher standards after living around here our whole lives.

The clear skies are giving us a chance to take stock on the snow cover. Looks pretty widespread and impressive but cool little localized areas stick out.. Looks like the Genesee valley never really got cold enough to accumulate much as they are already back to bare ground. Easily one of the worst places to live in WNY if you're a snow lover. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=ne&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24

I actually think it’s pretty spot on this time around. I measured a few places around the yard along with the snowboard and ground stake and all measurements were between 3” and 3.5”. These were taken around 9am

I do keep a pretty decent weather journal/log and live less than 2 miles from the airport so I can usually give a pretty good estimation of what's really going on. That said, for all the shit we give Rochester, their numbers are probably pretty accurate by the book; but not representative of what most of us see. As many have stated, the times that the snow actually gets measured plays a big part because of compaction. If Rochester gets lucky and has snow fall closer to the measuring time, it ends up on the high end. On the other hand, there may be some human error with people are measuring at incorrect intervals, or clearing it at the wrong times (Last year seemed to have excessively inflated totals). Throw in the possibility for localize drifting in the measurement area and suddenly we are 20 inches above surrounding towns. I'm not a huge stickler on measuring exactly to the book through most of the winter. I'll clear it around 8am each day if not much is happening. If we have a legit storm I will attempt to clear it at 6 hour intervals but I obviously cant (well I shouldnt) leave work to measure, and getting out of bed to measure once during the night isnt all that fun either (although I've done it a few times). In summary, I'll try to keep a good log this year but my numbers will always be more conservative because of my admitted longer durations between measurements.

Thats an excellent view BW! Even has sound.

Must be some little slivers of warmth still wrapping around this stacked up system. Doesn't take much to disrupt the dendritic processes. Pretty cool storm aside from the lack of interesting weather in my backyard .

We can’t buy a snowflake here in Monroe county

700mb low is directly over Kbuf as per the local mesoscale analysis

Was just coming in to say this! What a huge shift after a very long trend in the other direction.

It would appear that the surface low is in the process of redeveloping back over Western NY. This radar loop is pretty wild, A definite swirl and some lift quite apparent.

As a few of the models (and posters) have eluded too, tomorrow night at least has the potential for something measurable on the South Shore, especially if this NAM run comes to fruition. Thats quite the lobe of moisture pinwheeling back over the lake during the predawn hours with some definite enhancement. Thankfully we have nocturnal influences on our side too. Definitely something to keep an eye on.

That’s certainly an encouraging run but comparing the way it currently depicts the precip field to what I’m seeing shows a huge difference. For whatever reason that model seems extremely juiced up I do agree that it’s very unusual to have a deep low spinning directly north of Lake Ontario for 36 hours. Certainly going to be a lot of mesoscale interactions with warm Lakes, ample moisture, and so much energy nearby.

Spent some time sprucing up my backyard weather observatory this year. Snowboard is in place along with a my total snowfall on the ground stake. Official cocorahs rain guage is setup and in winter mode. And most exciting is the addition of the Tempest weather station by Weatherflow and a Davis Vantage Vue. Should be fun to cross calibrate those two stations. We have an interesting week of weather on tap. Hopeful I can make more than just rain measurements! if anyone has stations and wants to discuss data logging and web interfaces I’m all ears (send a pm). There is a whole world to these backyard weather stations that I didn’t know about, it’s fun but a little daunting.

That article is from 2019. Talks about the Halloween storm...which I know is a sore subject for you B-dubs

That 12z gfs shows a significant and continued weakening trend of the low pressure. Now only getting down to about 993. It’s barely pulling down enough cold air and is struggling to generate its own cold air. Even snow on the western side seems to struggle to develop. The week after still looking really nice though.

A lot of things to like about that 12z GFS run. I mean the first storm is a miss but thats a solid 10 days thereafter of below normal temps with transient spurts of snow and some multi band lake effect. Should be a real nice opportunity for the snowmakers to get a good base at the resorts. Snowboarding/skiing is one of the few things I will feel fairly safe doing this winter. Just one run but at least we have something more than this storm to look forward too.

Wow. The whole northern stream system is basically gone now. Cold air is less deep and wraps in much earlier. This storm is just about done. The northern stream storm is still in the gulf of Alaska (so maybe a sliver of hope yet) but this is trending in a really bad direction.

I agree with this. When you have a 1 million squares miles less of arctic ice, there will be very tangible effects. The amount of thermal mass stored in a million square miles of ice is nearly unimaginable...and its all gone. Never to return. There is no such thing as a normal or regular winter as we accelerate into this phase of global warming, each year will likely be progressively warmer. We may still catch some periods of intense snow and cold, but they will almost certainly be transient and few and far between. For most people in our area, this is great news. For us, this sucks...time for a new hobby?

Can confirm. We have moderate fluffy snow, nice dendrites. Air temp is 31.5 so it’s sticking a bit.

We all know Buffalo's Red Zone Defense isnt the best either....

18z coming in Way west now with a faster phase. I think we have had every possible scenario in the span of 4 runs. It's going to be a rollercoaster of emotions if this thing keeps teasing us....

Sounds like something only a concerned democrat would say....interesting. I figured you would be all about them making their own choices.

Man this is pretty depressing. Beating historical lows year after year.... https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ "A vast area of the Arctic Ocean remains ice free as November begins, far later in the season than is typical. The monthly average ice extent for October is the lowest in the satellite record. On October 24, a record difference was set in daily ice extent relative to the 1981 to 2010 average. Large heat transfers from the open water to the atmosphere have manifested as above-average air temperatures near the surface of the ocean." "Sea ice extent for October 2020 was 5.28 million square kilometers (2.04 million square miles), placing it lowest in the satellite record for the month. This was 3.07 million square kilometers (1.19 million square miles) below the 1981 to 2010 October average and 450,000 square kilometers (173,700 square miles) below the record low mark for October set in 2019. October 2020 is the largest departure from average conditions seen in any month thus far in the satellite record, falling 3.69 standard deviations below the 1981 to 2010 mean. Ice extent is far below average in all of sectors of the Eurasian side of the Arctic Ocean and in Baffin Bay."

I'm a Cuomo fan for the most part but I do remember being super pissed when he tried to blame the NWS in Buffalo for failing to forecast this event. They forecasted it just fine, there is just nothing you can do when it snows 6 feet in a day. It's going to be a shit show regardless..

I was at brockport in the Met lab for this one. We were all completely geeking out over that band. I was so jealous!