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DeltaT13

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Everything posted by DeltaT13

  1. DeltaT13
    Are we going to get some flurries during this game tonight? What’s going on in Hamburg BW? The radar is showing the slightest hint of some lake activity.
  2. DeltaT13
    Perhaps they are big winter weather lovers too and just disgusted with the long range. That 12z run is a pain train for just about all of us.
  3. DeltaT13
    I think I'm throwing in the towel on this one. Aside from the pretty horrible track, the strength is pretty pathetic too. 12z GFS has it "bottoming out" at 999mb, lol.....ugh. This is a tough start for sure. The Downstaters still have some hope for some scraps. She gone.
  4. DeltaT13
    Good call, that’s much more accurate. That’s not something I look at and I should definitely change that. Gives a much better idea of what to really expect.
  5. DeltaT13
    Has anyone noticed how the GFS seems to really overestimate precip fields over the last year or so? Look at the current forecast depiction compared to the radar. These are at the exact same times. It’s not good.
  6. DeltaT13
    I agree the current crew at the NWS is a little lackluster. I have no idea why they wouldn’t at least discuss the potential of a significant event, as it certainly exists (however unlikely...it’s certainly not zero 4-5 days out) When all they do all day is look at the weather, you would think they would be at least a little more interested in discussing the details and nuances of forecasts and model trends. It’s almost as if they aren’t even interested/excited about weather, It’s disappointing.
  7. DeltaT13
    It’s a very well run site. I’ve probably looked at it once a day for well over a decade. In fact I’ve actually subscribed to their Spaceweather phone service for probably 15 years now. It’s kind of stupid during solar minimum but that’s also the time when storms are the least likely and might be missed. (They will notify you 24/7 if northern lights are visible at your location) Plus they give you a lot of other updates.
  8. DeltaT13
    Looks like a classic hole lunch cloud. Was it near the airport? On an approach line?
  9. DeltaT13
    I can tell you one thing, I'm going to get a lot of shit done around the yard this "winter". Still working outside pretty much every weekend with virtually no end in sight. That's the one silver lining I can find.
  10. DeltaT13
    And for us ROC peeps, there is no better setup. Look at that little jackpot over us
  11. DeltaT13
    Looks like it ends up transferring over to the coast and misses way East.....At least it isnt rain...
  12. DeltaT13
    I think you've got it figured out for the most part. I like the lows that come out of the Ohio valley and move from Columbus to Scranton (Which is about the same as Pitt to Albany) with a ton of overrunning and then backend lake effect on a N wind for the South shore. There are some pretty huge events that have taken that track. Otherwise, we want a NorEaster that runs right up the Hudson Valley or even a touch further West.
  13. DeltaT13
    About 2 miles. I was still at work but drove over afterwards. It was insane, the house (remnants) was still fully ablaze a half hour after it blew. I guess people in my neighborhood felt their houses shake. I can't believe how far you could feel it.
  14. DeltaT13
    Yeah, its interesting. The best time to view it would have been overnight last night (this morning). The media and most people misunderstood the data from NASA and spaceweather.com. The chance has already come and gone. It's a shame that most people will be disappointed tonight without the proper info.
  15. DeltaT13
    Just an update that this potential is now gone. The CME hit and did not spark any activity.
  16. DeltaT13
    This insanity happened a couple miles from my house tonight. https://neighbors.ring.com/n/drzADv8r1V
  17. DeltaT13
    This is actually a decent point. I’m willing to bet money I’ve had hangovers that are an order of magnitude worse than the side effects from the vaccine. Not concerned about it at all.
  18. DeltaT13
    Oh the 18-20 weekend. There is some hope then.
  19. DeltaT13
    I see virtually no snow between now and this weekend with many places likely going well above normal in the temp department. Where the heck is 20-30 inches of snow coming from!?!
  20. DeltaT13
    If Mt Mansfield is any indication, we are starting to sneak into somewhat unusual territory for the lack of snow in the high peaks. It seems like December can occasionally have bare ground but it becomes increasingly unlikely heading into January. In fact, there has never been a single year since 1954 where Mt Mansfield didnt have continual snow cover from January 1st through April 15th. No doubt this year is off to a slow start... https://matthewparrilla.com/mansfield-stake/
  21. DeltaT13
    Tough week for Western and Central NY. Last weekend we have a storm phase early and pound Cleveland. The next weekend we have a storm phase late and pound Boston. That’s a tough pill to swallow.
  22. DeltaT13
    This is a bone dry airmass above 800mb, with a weak capping inversion. That means only have about 5000 feet of atmosphere to work with. But below that we have a saturated layer with pretty steep lapse rates, although surface temps on the lake plain look a little dodgey during the day. If we can just get some snow showers that would be nice for me at least, planning to cut down the tree this weekend.
  23. DeltaT13
    lol, I'm right there wiith you. I'll take flurries at this point. Just something so it doesnt feel like we live in North Carolina.
  24. DeltaT13
    This appears to be the case. I guess there is just enough moisture and adequate 850's for some action. I didn't think so at first but the 3k NAM soundings support it. As you mention, It's going to take the little orographic kick to get anything significant.
  25. DeltaT13
    Isn't nearly all of this possible snow related to Fridays sloppy event? That Sunday storm is a complete lost cause..I don't think any of this map is attributed to that.
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