DeltaT13

Well my point and click just went from 1-3 total, to 2-4 tonight and 1-3 tomorrow. A sizeable jump!

A really callous and disgusting approach....but I can't say I'm surprised. https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/16/trump-appointee-demanded-herd-immunity-strategy-446408

Way more misses than hits over the years, but you are right...when things line up, they do get the occasional whopper.

Because I don't believe you're getting .2 or .3 of liquid equivalent, lol. I also should have bumped ROC to 3", but I guess I need to be consistent with my pessimism on this event...bah humbug. I wish I didnt have to be like this.

Yeah, its a brutal place for snow lovers but this storm track seems a little more favorable and juiced up. Hopefully they do well. I always feel bad for them.

Is it time for some final calls?! Buf - 1" Roc - 2" Syr - 5" Bing - 16" Alb - 14"

Wow. The most sane/reasonable map of the day, and that’s even before we divide by two. Nail that one to the board. I think we have a winner.

I90 corridor really walking the fine line between a plowable snow or just a coating. I hate being way up there on that steep gradient.

The numbers actually look really good almost everywhere if you divide everything by 2.

No, maybe 18 on the high end. Especially with lower ratios down that way. I see you added something and now I don't know if you were being sarcastic or not. lol

From the looks of those ridiculous numbers I'd say its got a few lines of Kuchera code tucked in there somewhere. Divide by 2 IMO

Just noticed this wording (in bold and underlined) from the KBUF discussion that came out this morning. They are holding strong to this being a virtual non event. Will be interested to see this afternoon discussion. I can't believe they would explicitly say they have high confidence for such a fluid event. Good ol KBUF .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Our forecast area will be on the northern and western fringes of a passing Nor`easter Wednesday night. As is typically the case...our region should not anticipate more than a nuisance snowfall...maybe a light shovelable snowfall for portions of the Finger Lakes and Wrn Southern Tier. 18 hour (late Wednesday through Wednesday night) forecast snow totals range from little to nothing in Jefferson county and a general inch or so along the Buf-Syr stretch of the NYS Thruway to roughly five inches in southern Allegany county. High confidence in these numbers.

Buffalo added a winter storm watch to Allegany county. Guess any other counties will be under WWA that will be posted later tonight (if at all)

This map really looks good to me. The distribution of snow actually makes sense as opposed to some of those wacky solutions out of the lesser used models.

This frame of the UKIE supports that theory showing a nice little 1.5" of bonus snow overnight Thursday into Friday morning for KROC. We shall see. Just that 1.5" of snow is more than I thought we would get from the whole storm just 24 hours ago!

Secondary low transfers were the bane of my existence through the early 2000's. I never trust them. Thats when you watch a massive plume of snow just vanish like a fart in the wind as the secondary wins out. With this system though, the secondary is somewhat pathetic which may bode well for the primary holding onto to its precip shield longer.

I'm still not seeing it, but I love to be wrong in this direction. If I'm wrong and we get snow, I'm all for it!

Not sure if we can make enhancement work. I think the UKIE is just straight juiced up synoptically. The winds during our critical time frame even have a bit of a Southerly component to them.... I'd take the UKIE solution in a heartbeat though, even with zero enhancement.

Looks like when the synoptic moisture is the deepest over us the winds are nearly due East, then as the moisture pulls away the winds begin to turn NE. Just not sure we can get everything in the right place at the right time.

Man that is some optimism! I feel like such a scrooge on this one. Just seems like so much can go wrong for those of us so far North. I would be astounded if we got over 4", expecting 1-3' in KROC, and I'll actually be quite happy with that. Just cover the grass for a few days please!

Looks like the models are struggling with strong convection along the coast. Those two runs are more or less the same except where it decides to place the actual surface low symbol. The primary over Ohio also looks a tad stronger. I'm a little skeptical or how far North it throws moisture, but perhaps a weak system (pressure wise) isn't quite as wrapped up and can spread the wealth? Hard to say but I'm wary of getting my hopes up way up here on the Northern Cusp. That said, things are at least trending in our favor...

I was like daaang. Those ratios are insane!

.9 or .09?

Spelling aside its probably the most reasonable map to date. Location of heaviest snows looks good and no goofball Kuchera numbers anywhere to be seen.

Not sure if I'm reading your sarcasm right, but the Upper Genesee valley is well South of Rochester down towards its headwaters along the southern Tier. The fingerlakes and Upper Genesee are much different than Rochester and Monroe County and shouldnt really be lumped together. There is about a 50 inch difference in seasonal snowfall between Rochester and the Upper Genny.