DeltaT13

Is that right?. I just looked back and KROC had a positive departure both days with a high of 39 and then 48 Christmas Day.

Yup. Saw people tending to the luminaries

The rain snow line is moving much more quickly towards the northeast in sw Pa. It seems to be wrapping in behind the surface low. So as the models showed, the changeover will actually probably move in from the SW while the north end of that line (in Niagara county) acts more or less as a pivot point and doesn’t really budge.

that rain snow line actually jogged west a mile or two in the last hour. I think this is where it stays for most of the night.

I'm living vicariously through this tonight I guess. i'll let you know if I see Santa coming through.... https://video.nest.com/live/7Lel0fR0Ox

You can see that rain snow line actually bounces back west the last few frames. I assume you must live right along that line.

I just realized I posted my stupid point and click forecast in this thread instead of the other one. ooops

I'll be playing things by ear. If there was an incredible band tomorrow I might head out in the afternoon, but not sure how far I would drive to get to it. Someday when things are more normal I might take you up on that place to crash if things ever got real dicey while I was out there. If I don't go tomorrow, I might take a drive very early Saturday morning...once again this would be contingent on band placement and intensity. We shall see.

Ok, I agree that was douchey but you are oppressive with your opinions sometimes. I apologize for that. Here is what makes a full scale megawatt fusion power plant a massive challenge. The quarter mile stayout zone I mentioned...is because of an incredible amount of neutrons produced in the fusion reaction. This constant fluence of neutrons would destroy any modern circuit board in a matter of minutes. There are currently no known technologies to deal with the radiation environments of a fusion reactor. So now we have a fully automated plant running on technology that doesnt even exist. It's so far beyond current technologies. That said, the plasma physics side of this equation is actually even more challenging and still decades away from having a solution.

My Point and click just updated to 1-2 inches tonight. Wonder what KBuf based that on? Thats a huge shift and contrary to the 18z runs. Is it the Christmas miracle that vortmax has been talking about??!!

haha, thats the spirit! And if thats a total snow on the ground snowboard; then its honestly in one of the few populated places in this country where you could legitimately hit that number (someday). If its a 24 hours or less incremental board, then yes, a little bit of overkill.

That's because you don't have the slightest concept of how difficult certain fusion power plant schemes are. Continue to think you know more about everything. Here's a pro tip, you don't.

I'll give you one mind blowing fact about a full scale fusion power plant. There would be a mandatory stay out zone around plant that would be at least a quarter mile from the plant itself because of the insane amount of neutron fluence from the fusion reaction. This means that not one single human can be onsite, or even nearby during its operation. Therefore, a functional fusion power plant will need to be 100 percent automated. That issue alone pushes the complexity of such a plant into another realm. Think how pathetic our advancements in robotics are right now relative to where they need to be.

We managed to hit 53 today. Was quite balmy.

All eyes on the critical thicknesses as they inch East. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16#

I've been working in Fusion Research for 18 years now. A viable fusion power plant is honestly still 50-100 years away (at best). Tokamaks and shit like that are gimmicks. A true fusion power plant is an order of magnitude more complex than anything we have conceived this point. There is a huge need for solar and wind during this long transition period. We would be best served continuing with fission but taking measures to ensure its safe with a reliable way to dispose of the waste. I work with a lot of physicists who don't think a viable fusion power plant will even exist in this century. It's next level shit.

I was just looking at my weather stations and saw the same thing. Dropped 8 degrees in about 45 minutes. This could be some dynamic cooling under the heavy rain combined with a little CAA from that NW wind. Won't be nearly enough...

Well if we were hoping for heavy precip to drag down cold air, the thermal profiles near ROC and East dont support it with the entire layer above us up to 700mb well above freezing. Look at the warm nose on this sounding. At the same time profiles a little further west appear to have a cold layer off the surface to tap into.

18z models are continuing to trend west. WNY could miss out on the synoptic too and Amherst certainly isn’t a lock for lake effect with some of the recent trends

It’s sad Christmas Eve in the Roc and finger lakes. Our ship has sailed. We must have been on the naughty list.

Rochesters point and click says green Christmas. Changeover doesn’t happen until 5/6 and snow is over by 7. Yuck. NWS is definitely tossing the gfs. I think we still have a shot but that’s a gut punch... Edit - I guess any snow during that changeover should really stick so perhaps not truly green, but not a true white Christmas by the definition either (1” on the ground). A coating will do

Yup. Roc is really in a tight spot on this one.

I think that’s a good point to enforce here. This type of fast paced cyclogenesis is really hard for the models to pin down with high resolution. It is a somewhat unusual storm evolution in my book. And I agree to some degree that the models are waffling a bit, but it’s also only a difference of about 75 miles. We are just hyper focused on those 75 miles.

After saying that I’m looking back at how this storm was forecasted back last Friday. She’s certainly lost some steam since then. There were some pretty juicy runs early on :/

That’s a pretty odd map. I’ll agree with that. A lot of weird shit to unpack with that one.