DeltaT13

This is the best I’ve done from an Erie band in a long time. I’m trying to see my snowboard out the window (too lazy to get out of bed yet) and it looks like I have almost 6 new inches of fluff with huge flakes still coming!!

As a Northern Erie County Resident you should love the double band. It's your best shot in these close scenarios.

Looking at this I think its about to come back to life pretty quickly. That was a temporary little burp of dry air and a wind shift. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-LakeOntario-13-48-1-100

I’m on the road and enroute to Greek peak! Will be interesting to see if I can pop into some of that heavier stuff on the drive. They are reporting a 3 day total of 22 inches. I forgot to measure my snowboard this morning but it looked to be in the 6-7 inch range.

Definitely. I had 4 at 630pm (bad drifting though so some error bars).

This really is the dream scenario for Rochester. It’s a shame I really didn’t see it coming, or was too jaded to accept the setup...lol Anyway, it went from zero to 100 around 5pm today. Just great stuff. I’m hoping ol Greek Peak can add some inches overnight. Hi res models show it hanging on forever down that way.

Is there any wind direction where the tug doesn’t jackpot?! Geez Louise.

I’m out chasing. It’s glorious. Lot of back roads have deep dense snow, the best stuff to blast around in!

My snowboard is getting drifted pretty bad with this wind direction but looks like 4 inches. Because of the drifting, the snow on the ground is super dense from settling so efficiently. It’s very dry, but very dense.

You wanted yellow! You get yellow!

I'm probably going to head out and drive around a bit in a few minutes here. I'll be going on an inadvertent chase around 8pm to pick up my wife from work because she's too nervous to drive home. Her car is not great in the snow.

Thanks man. I know I'm a bit of a pessimist in here sometimes. It's hard to stay positive sometimes when you love weather so much and things aren't working out the way you had hoped. I also don't consider myself above any of you guys. I did the math, and studied the books 20 years ago, but most of you guys are just as good or better than me at pattern recognition. The internet and all the available data has allowed even arm chair weather enthusiast to do a very good job of tracking and forecasting weather these days. I love this forum. Glad to have all the differing inputs, even when some of us have our depressive moments.

Well things have certainly accelerated far faster than I ever thought they could. Damn near blizzard conditions out my window right now. Color me shocked, impressed, and very happy. Radar looks impressive upstream. I have to climb up on my roof and bust off and ice dam that's causing some issues though. That's going to be a wild time!

He's right and wrong kind of. I usually stand up for the NWS, but they haven't been a bastion of accuracy the last few storms. They nowcasted this one 6 hours before the event, which I admit appears to be working out better than I expected, but not exactly ground breaking forecasting.. It's just weird when people act like what I or others say somehow negates the NWS. People are free to choose any forecast they want. In this forum we just spitball and bitch most of the time. Take it for what it is..

The GFS did, its just that nobody believed it. LOL

It's not technically cold enough for pure lake effect in regards to instability and deltaT's but the lake is certainly adding some moisture and heat content to that airmass.

Yup, patience was a virtue I guess. Heavy snow and strong winds here at the moment!

Agree and I also think they struggled with the trajectory of winds down sloping out of the Dack's and Tug. I'll have to try and remember this for next time we are in a similar setup.

I'm just giving you shit because I feel like Lake effect pays dividends relative to synoptic in your neck of the woods, or at least it did before Matt moved into the area.

Oh geez, and that happens about 3 days a year. No one is feeling bad for you Wolfie, hahaha

Well it's now or never. Snow is coming down hard now, winds are strong from the North. Radar is building upwind of us at the current time. RochesterDave may be vindicated yet!

It really is the tug hill eating up a lot of the snow that was Enroute to us. Seems like we are breaking out of that shadow finally...but there will be a new victim.

Anyone have any snow reports from the cortland/Greek peak area? I’m assuming they are around 12-16”.

It seems like the wall of snow is starting to slowly make a little headway through the dry air on the East end of Lake Ontario finally. We shall see. I think being directly downwind of the tug in terms of wind trajectory hurt us today. Just a lot of down-sloping.

You can listen to them all you want. I’m not stopping you. We are discussing our opinions on the storm in here. I’m not putting out forecasts or telling people how live their lives.