DeltaT13

I'm here I'm here! I Was actually out playing winter kickball this afternoon. This snow is impossible to run in, haha. I'm gassed.

I'm so ready. The 8-10 inch snowpack we are holding is super dense (made up of about 35 inches of snow!).. We are going to have some of the deepest snowpack I've had in many years come Wednesday morning. The top 15 analogs seem to hint at the south Shore enhancement too!

I think what saves us is that we get the somewhat longer light snow appetizer on Monday and then a short lull until the fast but maybe bigger hit comes Tuesday, so it will kind of feel like one big long storm. At least I'm hoping it does...

I never thought it would happen again, but here we are. This current stretch is a tick or two warmer, but could end up snowier which is a fine trade off!

February 2015 is the all time benchmark for a brutal awesome winter month, at least in my lifetime.

What’s crazy is that even with that insane inversion the entire column is still well below freezing. Virtually no dendritic growth layer though so maybe ice needles or something weird.

The atmosphere can decouple itself nicely in situations like this with winds at different heights flowing in different directions and not really mixing. You’ll see the air above 850mb is flowing in from the west while the surface air is from due north.. Additionally there may be subsidence causing compressional warming in the layer above the inversion. At the same time the surface is freely radiating any heat into space and cooling the boundary layer (at night). It’s definitely fascinating and complicated. I still struggle to fully understand all the intricacies of the vertical profiles in scenarios like this.

Looks like we have about 7 more days of wintry goodness before the pattern breaks down and becomes progressive with a PAC flow. Still was a very nice and unexpected 4 weeks of solid winter weather. And by the time this pattern starts breaking down its nearly March when winter should begin loosening its grip anyway.

I can’t tell if the bar is just low these recent years, but this winter is already a B- in my book with a lot of time to still go up. We are in the midst of 4 straight weeks of below normal temps and have had a consistent snowpack the whole time. That’s pretty rare. If we can get just one of these next three events to at least give us a moderate snow we’ll really be on to something, at least for me

Next weeks storm is a very classic Miller A setup though. That somewhat inland track almost makes sense when you see how far south this trough digs and where the surface low forms. I mean it’s deep in Mexico! This storm could actually still phase even better and be deeper....buutt. It’s still 6 days out. We been chasing Epic storms around day 7 for a couple years now and not one has really panned out.

I don't think I've ever seen an inverted thermal trough of that magnitude before! It's impacting and steering that entire Storm system.

Interesting and somewhat unusual little bloom of lake enhanced precip popping up. I think I can see a meso low moving parallel to the shore which seems to be intensifying. Or maybe its my imagination.

I know the exact winter you’re talking about. Jan-feb 2004. Basically the entire south shore had a tea kettle or very weak nw flow band setup for literally days on end. I remember driving along the parkway and the snow was piled up so high I couldn’t even see the lake at times. Hell of a winter. Also bittersweet because just one year prior I lived directly on the lake up in Charlotte and we didn’t get squat. I moved to henrietta that next year and the lakeshore got buried.

How did you guys do so much better than us? I havent watched the radar closely. ROC has 2" and its winding down.

@Syrmax How did you do in that forecasting contest? I wasn't sure what your username was (mine was snowtoriousBIG). I came in somewhere in the middle of the pack I think. Definitely hard with so many cities to forecast.

I've heard both sides. I have plenty of friends who said the second shot didnt do a damn thing to them, and others who said it knocked them on their ass for a day. I want the second shot to knock me on my ass, that's how I'll know its actually creating an immune response. And big whoop, oh no, you feel crappy for a couple days...whats the big deal? Furthermore, I'm not sure if you guys noticed, but actually getting the virus causes some pretty bad effects....even killing some people..... Seems like the lesser of two evils to me. But you guys do you.

Are you really comparing how a 96 year olds body and how a 20 somethings body would respond to this as if its an equal comparison. Good grief man. How many crazy supplements have you taken over the years (of which none are approved by the FDA) yet somehow this vaccine is the thing you're worried about? Doesn't seem logical.

I'd get it tomorrow if I could. Happy to hear so many of you don't want it, that mentality will bump me up in line if its pervasive enough.

That late weekend storm is really going to be a nail biter. Its amazing that its bouncing from a cutter to nearly missing us from run to run. It's all about that giant lobe of the PV and the h500 heights. When the storm cuts, There is a phase with a smaller shortwave and the predominate h500 low situated over the PV. When the storm misses east, it doesnt Phase. Very subtle differences but still enough time to wiggle out of the cutter scenario.

No chance we ever make up that deficit, but this prolonged cold with a solid snowpack is a great consolation price.

It’s interesting to all of the sudden find ourselves in one of the longest and most persistent cold stretches since 2015. This winter had such a slow and uneventful start and now it looks like the tundra outside with at least another 10 days to go. This winter has redeemed itself completely in my eyes!

You think the super res reflectivity is too low res? It's usually in high sensitivity mode, I haven't found anything better. I think its great

I guess I should have chased this one. Couldnt find the motivation for whatever reason this morning. It would have been cool to chase in the north towns.

I shouldn’t have made that first post but I did mention I was looking at the stake from the bedroom window with sleepy eyes. Lol. I will take an average of a few places where I know it was bare yesterday. My wife just drove into the city and said there were vastly varying amounts of snow between gates and roc which is typical. The band is always dying quickly out this way. my position a couple miles west of the airport might produce a noticeable difference.

I stand corrected. We have about 3-4”. I’ll measure better in a bit.