DeltaT13

3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Surprised more people aren't posting about the wind. I'm right on the Mohawk too so it's just funneling in, pretty amazing. 

It’s windy but nothing noteworthy here. This storm track is a little non standard for our area and better for yours.  The forecast did well as your were under warnings and we only have advisories. I’m jealous though! 

Of all the useless Snow squall warnings, today is the absolute winner.  It's freaking snow flurries and I have idiot coworkers running around thinking its like a god damn tornado warning.    

34 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

YeH, we have about 5” in the field at my folks in Pittsford. Neighborhoods in Irondequoit are showing a ton of brown grass. Huge snow mounds remain. 
Some of the meso models show a couple/ few inches over next 48 hours. Wouldn’t surprise me. Limiting factors are the wind and dry. It’s always disappointing to get a long duration north wind event only to have it crushed by dryness. EVERY DAMN TIME. Lol. 
Should be pretty windy today for you! 

Yeah I was just thinking about how we've barely had a single high wind event this winter.  This is usually a good thing for us snow lovers as our big wind events always come from cutters.  If its a windy winter, its usually a crappy one snow wise. 

This is an unusual wind setup for us though so not sure what to expect (although my gut says don't expect much unless you're right on the lake shore)

2 hours ago, rochesterdave said:

Last night pretty much did it. All our snow is gone (tear). 

Still holding a nice 4 inch pack in my neighborhood, but the cracks are showing.....  I still think we can get most of this all the way through next weekend.  

58 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

We lost nearly half in last 3 days in Irondequoit. 

I've dropped from 16 to 10 since the weekend but I think its just continuing to condense and not necessarily melt.  It's all still there, just even denser.  I should try to take a core sample and see what we have for SWE

1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said:

I'm a little surprised the snowpack is barely melting here with a temp in the mid 40s... it must be super dense and packed now with all the ice layers. The low dewpoint in the 20s and overcast skies are probably helping to reduce melt as well.

I've been saying this snowpack was legit for weeks (not sure about up near you Matt, as your luck has been horrible).  Down here, we racked up  just under 50 inches of snow without a thaw, all of that snow compacted down to about 15 inches just before the current thaw hit.  That is a seriously dense snowpack that isnt disappearing in a few warm days.  It'll be around a couple weeks in my opinion.  

25 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Great point!

Not to beat a dead horse but we went 6 weeks straight this winter without a mostly sunny day.  A clear visible satellite is absolutely the exception not the norm this time of year.   I also think that ice page does a pretty decent job, give them a chance to update the data before acting like they are idiots.  Those people know a hell of a lot more about ice cover than any of us.  

47 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

There was a really good one @DeltaT13 went to a few years ago. I think it was 20" in Orchard Park and it happened in middle of game. I think it was against the Eagles? It's a really rare occurrence to get everything timed right. We only have 8 Bills home games and only 2-3 in Nov/Dec. However, with the Bills being good now, we can add 1-2 games a year of playoff football into the mix! I had to work that day and am so mad that I missed it. I'll be going to almost all the games this coming year, cant wait!

Here it is

https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2017-2018&event=C

 

Yup, I was there and it was glorious.  A top 5 weather event in my life.  8-10 inches of snow in about 3 hours, all hitting during the game.  3 huge lightning flashes directly over the stadium that few people even recognized as thundersnow.  The game went to overtime and we won!  

It's official, I'm giving this winter a solid B or even B+.  I've learned that I don't need months of cold and snow, just one 4-6 week period where it doesn't thaw once and we build a solid snowpack.  Sprinkle in a few decent synoptic events, a little lake effect, and I'm happy as a clam.  It's been hard coming to terms with the fact that its all ends starting today.  I felt about as happy as I have in a long time yesterday and I think a lot of had to do with all the winter fun I've been having the last few weeks.  If only we could have kept this going for another 2 weeks I would have given this winter an A.  So it's not about huge storms for me, or even a ton of snow, I just need consistent winter weather.  Never thought this year would have scratched the itch the way things started, but I'm sure glad we turned it around.  

I'll be interested to see how long it takes to melt the 15" pack I have right now.  After playing in snow all day yesterday I think it'll hang around for quite some time.  It's incredibly dense stuff, must be 3-4 SWE.  We shall see.  

14 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Delta you measure yet?

I measured around 2pm and we had 5 inches. That would have easily been 6” measured at the right intervals. Maybe even a scosh more. Since then we’ve gotten another 2”.  It’s very high ratio stuff, 15/20:1

12 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Airport as of 4 pm only reporting 2.4 inches. I call bs on that

The bands were pretty localized so that could explain a little bit of it. I drove to work today at UR and there was decidedly less snow than at my house just 4 miles away.  

8 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Think you may get 2 to 4 more delta. Obviously rgem had the best handle on this but had band about 10 miles to far north east. 

I wasn’t expecting anything this far west. Very interesting band placement, and I’m very appreciative of it, lol. And the NWS held their ground and never upgraded Niagara or Orleans all day!!  I know places there must have gotten over a foot. Rough year to be a pro forecaster..

We keep dropping into the yellows in this band and rates are easily 3”/hr for short spurts of time. Just a phenomenal day. Snowpack is now up to almost 18 inches of snow, and it’s incredibly compacted and settled. We’ve gotten about 7 inches today. Might be the highest daily storm total for the year IMBY. 

I’ll head out and measure in a few minutes. I’m guessing 5 inches or so. 

What a morning on the west side. Just pounding monster dendrites for hours.  Some of the best snow of the year!

26 minutes ago, PerintonMan said:

Man, that gradient. I could get 2" or 8".

It’s worse that. 90 percent chance of a dusting. 8 percent chance of 2”. 2% chance of 8” or more. 

Just now, mississaugasnow said:

Not the time just yet, as I will enjoy the deep winter landscape but March is quickly approaching. When do you guys expect the snow cover to melt away (not piles haha) 

 

Around here there's normally 1-2 days a spring where you get the perfect spring and winter day combined haha. 55F sunny skies hiking thru the forest with the t-shirt and snow boots because there's still 6"+ everywhere 

I don't see any major warmups through the end of the month so I think we can take this snowpack into the first week of March.  

The storm that missed us last night/today was far more developed in the deep south and tracked West of the Appalachians.  The next storm is slower to evolve and pops the low East of the Appalachians.  I think that makes a big difference in the downstream track.   We need that App runner that somehow straddles the apps all the way up the coast. 

I dunno, that ice damn looks pretty typical after nearly 30 days of holding snow and below freezing temps.  As long as the water isnt backing up you will be fine.  I have been studying and fighting ice dams for many years.  It's only a concern if there is vent or something close to that area where it can penetrate in, otherwise the ice and water shield should do its job. 

Houses lose heat no matter how good the insulation is.  It is what it is.  

37 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Whats the data for this season so far?

The data from my backyard "Snow on the ground stake":

1" or more - 36 days

6" or more - 19 Days

12" or more - 1 Day

We've had 26 consecutive days now with 4 inches or more.  Thats the one that makes all the difference.

These numbers aren't super impressive at face value, but considering the fact that we had virtually nothing going into January we have made quite the turnaround.  

27 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Delta are you in Rochester? I saw a pic from Lyndonville this morning on the local news and the tires on the vehicle in the driveway and the garage door lower panel was covered with what looked to be about 18+” or so, then a FB post from a neighbor who has a friend that said in the same area they received near 2 feet, is this possible?

It's completely absurd and impossible.  We got about 4-5 inches areawide.  Sleet does have a propensity to roll off roofs and make huge drifts in localized areas.  I've been measuring snow every single day this season (when there is snow to measure) and tracked things quite meticulously.   We only have 12" on the ground at the moment, so those numbers are absolutely fiction and hopefully not spread around too much.  The news stations are hoping to save some face so they are probably pumping up those types of reports.  

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Yeah, that's not melting until April. Like I said good for you snow depth guys but for me I wanted 3" rates for at least an hour with a nice jeb walk. Snow depth ain't my thing. 

It really is the saving grace or me.  I honestly think we can hold this pack into the first week of march without issue which will give us a some very respectable numbers relative to Rochester snowpack climatology!

https://www.weather.gov/buf/ROCsnowdepth

Well I melted down my core and I almost can't believe it.  4.6:1 stuff.  So thick and dense.    I have 4" of snow/sleet and .87" of liquid.  

We got 4 inches of sleet snow here. I’m melting down a core now to see the SWE. Snow on the ground is now a super thick and dense 12 inches. I don’t think this last 4 inches will compact one bit. 

Absolutely pounding sleet right. Feels like the house is getting full on bead Blasted. It’ll make a great base though.