DeltaT13

2 hours ago, rochesterdave said:

Brentrich is the only poster I’ve ever considered blocking. He makes these sweeping proclamations without posting anything to back them up. He’s an annoyance. A troll. 
It’s like he thinks weather forecasting is about having hunches. All winter he said “it’s over”... and then we had February. Now he’s saying Spring is over. 
yeah. There’s signs that we are gonna be cold- with blocking and a dynamic trough in the east but instead of posting that he comes at us like he’s freaking Nostradamus. 
I just wish he’d be part of this and not shout at us like he’s some god bending the weather. 
Im sure I annoy plenty. 

I blocked him long ago, and if you guys would stop feeding the troll and quoting him I would never have to see his stupid posts again.  Block him, you won't be missing out on anything. 

1 hour ago, rochesterdave said:

Pretty apparent eastward shift on 18z. Probably a little less of amplification too. This one is sailing for Rochester. Still looks good for points east. 

Yup, not looking good at all. One last kick in the dick for the year.  

Man I’d love to see this storm crush us. It would be the biggest April storm that I can remember if we get more than 4-5 inches. As always with this winter, We are right on the cusp and im mentally preparing to be majorly disappointed. Ugh. 

53 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

Word of advice for anyone recovering...take it easy. I thought I was back to 100% Wednesday so I got a shoulder workout in. Somewhat light weight compared to normal, and shoulders are usually my easiest workout. Woke up with the worst migraine yesterday morning, was completely drained and dehydrated. Going to try some light cardio later today and see what happens.

 

 

Recovering from second dose of the vaccine or actual covid?

Looks like about 50,000 without power in Cleveland. Peak gust of 62mph between 5-6am.  

2 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

I’m still not sold on this wind event verifying.  Very narrow window only 2-3 hours, not seeing the sky clear enough to allow mixing.  Thinking we see some good gusts but I’m not seeing this turn into a big damage event.

I think Sunday is going to end up being the bigger wind event as well. 

18 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Not cool, max over my house again. Always like that for wind storms

I wouldn’t be too worried.  We’ve survived much bigger ones in the last few years.  Also, I’m jealous of your location as usual 

The storm on Sunday actually looks like another fairly textbook setup for high winds. It might be a two for one kind of weekend!  I’ll take!! 

36 minutes ago, vortmax said:

During the day so maybe if it clears out a bit the sun will come into play...

Absolutely. The most important thing for us to take wind events to the next level is good diurnal mixing. Im not sold we clear out enough in time but I’m hopeful. 

11 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Maybe a bad map?  Don’t see us in the metro gusting over 60 when they are showing a down slope wind coming out of the S - SE.  Just browsed the model runs and do see the RGEM is showing a few hours of SW winds getting close to that range on Friday.  

Looks like a standard SW high wind event to me, granted I only see about 4-6 hours of high winds. High Res NAM shows a classic funneling up the lake with some impressive 10m gusts.  We can only hope!!

I feel like this Friday Storm could bring us a short lived High Wind Warning event, would be the first in many months.  The low track is tenuous though, would love to see it bump NW a scosh. 

2 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

This beautiful image from today shows the suckiness of the Lake plain and lower elevations for snow lovers.

What is the original source of this photo, I’d like to know what all the labels are?  Also to note is Bristol mountains impressive snowmaking. I’ve circled them in the attached image. 
 

Anyone notice how dry it is?!  It’s fantastic. This would normally be prime mud season but here we are heading into a long stretch of dry weather and the ground is already pretty damn dry and firm. It’ll be a great weekend to get some gardens turned and outside work done!  

2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Pretty rare to get a snowless March in Buffalo. Has only happened 2 times in history. 

What are we considering snowless?  Buffalo reported measurable snow on 3 days and a trace amount on 6 days for a total of .6”.    I completely agree that getting less than an inch of snow is pretty impressive and rare though. Not trying to take away from that. 

1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

Yeah looks like it has some decent land, big place as well, 5bd, 4BA 3100sq ft.. Probably priced accordingly..

I actually checked, it comes with 260 acres as well lol

Wow, 260 acres alone could cost well above 700k depending on the land type.  That's actually a steal aside from being in the middle of nowhere.  

1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

Yeah looks like it has some decent land, big place as well, 5bd, 4BA 3100sq ft.. Probably priced accordingly..

I actually checked, it comes with 260 acres as well lol

It looks like it has 2 absolutely enormous outbuilding/barns too.  

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

A little pricey for 585 sq feet. Nice place though. 

Only a half acre, that's such a gip.  Would actually be a cool little cottage if it had land.  

33 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

I bet you enjoyed today. The WIND was STRONG in the Cuse all day. Frequent strong gusts throughout. No damage though.  

I was working deep inside my lab today so I missed anything good    This frontal passage is pretty wild right now though!  Very gusty

27 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

Is this lake enhanced??  Didn’t think the air mass change was that cold, plus lake is frigid. Seems to be hung up though, heavy rain here for 30 minutes with lots of lightning. Radar looks like a lake effect rain band. 

The lake air is incredibly stable in an airmass with surface temps in the 50s and 60s.  This is just a good old fashioned cold front with some decent upper level support. 

It’s amazing that thunderstorms werent anywhere in our forecast tonight. 

12 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

No.  Just a random fire in the train yard under the Tift Street bridge.  Had quite a few trucks working it.  Burnt just over an acre.  Surprised as that area is kinda swampy and still has snowy patches, wouldn’t think it could burn up so quick.

 

Interesting.  Looks like relative humidity's dropped to around 30% yesterday afternoon in Buffalo.  That's right around the breakpoint where fires can burn erratically and violently.  Its amazing how critical humidity is to fire danger.  

6 hours ago, WNash said:

This map sent me on a hunt for annual snowfall numbers for the midsection of the US. That area of blue in central and eastern KS through central MO (with a bit more blue in and near St. Louis) looks pretty bad, but those are areas which only average 12-15 inches, so they're not far off the mark. The Dakotas (especially ND) seem to have gotten the shaft this winter -- ND looks to average about 35-45 inches across most of the state, but the SE of the state maxes out at 2 ft+, and a huge chunk of ND was at 1 ft or less. Of course, they can get late season storms, so it's not over for them like it probably is in KS.

I didn't know South Dakota did so much worse that ND - the snowiest part of SD seems to be the Black Hills, which look more like ND, but the rest of the state seems to get snowfalls totals in the 15-25 inch range on average, closer to places like Idaho , northern Illinois/Indiana/Ohio than to MN/WI, which are due east.

 

 

 

South Dakota usually gets some huge spring storms. Those numbers will probably go up quite a bit still.  The front range also will make up a lot of ground over the next 6 weeks. 

37 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said:

6-8 inches is the forecast and not even an advisory. Has to be a joke right?

 

 

They mention it’s a low confidence setup and has a high fluff factor if it pans out which limits impact. Couple that with high sun angles limiting any real road impacts and I think it’s probably not worth riling people up.  
 

Does anyone really think they are getting 6-8”? That would tie me for the biggest event of the season. I’m not seeing it with strong winds and a cap around 5k. 

7 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

I hear ya. Thanks for the pep talk (was it that?lol). It’s more the rain I’m concerned about. Base is 18-40”, so it SHOULD survive. 
It’s just amusing that THIS forecast has literally been a lock for 3 weeks when a decent forecast has difficulty surviving a single 6 hour iteration. Lol. 

It was definitely a bit of a pep talk.  It's hard to shift gears and stop focusing on POW days and big storms but the time has come.  The base is very solid and I think a lot of places will be open into mid April. Rain definitely sucks, but the few rain chances on the horizon look fairly transient so hopefully not too bad.  Spring skiing definitely has its perks, no goggle issues or goggles in general, less layers, more lift beers and parking lot tailgating, soft slushy moguls you can just bomb through, bright sunshine and warm air on your face, etc etc.  I dunno, Spring skiing is my favorite thing next to a big pow storm.  

8 hours ago, rochesterdave said:

I’ve been watching the weather for this next weekend because I’m going skiing in ADK’s. For a solid 3 weeks it’s showed incredible warmth and rain. Not one run has it vacillated. 
It’s comical because we’ve lost a GOOD forecast inside of 6 hours. But this one has been etched in g-d granite. And it will be crap. 
Oh well. We’ll still have a good time. We’ll have to take the focus off of skiing and put it where it should be- on each other. Family time! 

You booked a trip the second week of March, I mean that has spring skiing written all over it from the get go.  Enjoy the the aspects of spring skiing for what they are.  I'm heading out Wednesday when it hits 60 and I couldn't be more excited.  The base is amazing, most places are 100% open, it's perfect spring ski conditions.  Get after it, have fun!