DeltaT13

4 minutes ago, vortmax said:

So 7" of rain in ROC is doing better? Lol. 

What I wouldn't do to see that verify!  

5 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Oh, I agree. I'm not too concerned about whatever people are smoking at the fair... it's about the disregard and lack of courtesy during a time when people are amped up and anxious about sharing airspace with others. If we are going to push masks, I think it's logical to push not smoking and not exhaling your molecules all over others in public. Or is it a double standard?

 

This I agree on.  I think smoking should be done in designated areas pretty much everywhere.  Surprised that isnt the case already.  

8 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

With how liberal you are on things, it surprises me that you're dismissing such a possibilty. If you push for mask wearing because we can spread germs through breathing, I think exhaling with a little force out of the lungs could spread it as well.

Which continues my point that everything is a contradiction anymore and people will just push for their "point" because it is what they "want" regardless of others or actual sensibility.

I mean how many people at the fair will be openly smoking pot?  Probably 1 percent, if that.  In the grand scheme of things this just isnt an issue.  There will be far more people smoking cigs and vapes and no one was worried about that.  Pot is the least of our concerns right now.  I also don't think it enhances transmission.  There is no reason to believe the virus would be attaching to smoke particles.  

42 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

So, during a time when Covid is of great concern, and the government can seemingly place random restrictions on people, it makes total sense (sarcasm) to be allowing people to smoke in a very crowded area. Sure, spread your Covid germs on molecules you exhale out of your mouth.

NOTHING makes sense these days.

Just because you can smell it doesnt mean it changes how effective the virus transmits.  It simply reveals just how much air we breathe that comes out of others peoples lungs.  This is a non-issue IMO. 

12 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Warm front this evening/early morning..

3k wants to bring the remnants through W/C PA and into NY state.. Albeit LR 3k NAM..

Would love to see this verify!  Thats a solid hit for us.

This section from the AFD is a little odd.  The remnants of Fred appear to be ancient history by the time the weekend rolls around.  I mean even by Thursday its pretty much spun out to absolutely nothing (not that it was even much to start with).  Strange to see them think it would have any sort of effect by the weekend.  The Buffalo NWS certainly makes me scratch my head sometimes. 

".LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Unsettled conditions continue into the weekend as remnants of
Tropical Storm Fred track into southern New England. It remains
undetermined whether remnants of Fred will stay east of the forecast
area. A closed low over the Great Lakes may draw some moisture back
into the region. Either way, weak forcing and diurnal heating will
lead to the chance for showers and storms Friday-Friday night.

The cut-off low will merge with an approaching trough over the
weekend. Showers and thunderstorms are possible. A cold front will
track across the region associated with a surface low well to the
north. Little change in temperatures as an upper level ridge builds
back into the region Sunday-Monday. Temperatures stay above normal
through the weekend. A slightly stronger ridge might bring even
warmer temperatures into the region early next week."

4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Its a dude and he makes 130k a year working 3 days a week, I'll believe it when I see it. Georgia is requiring the same thing by Oct. 1st. 

Man those PA positions are cushy (sometimes).  I have 2 friends that are PA's.  Mid 20's, work a few days a week in orthopedics.  Making about 120k a year.  What a gig.   

Back to the main point though, I should say that mandates are big deal and the gov't should be cautious with them, but I would assume most of the medical community would trust the peer reviewed science that says the vaccines are pretty damn safe.  We are 18-19 months since clinical trials began and there really isn't anything damning that has come out.  If the FDA gives full approval, it's going to get a lot harder to avoid getting the shot.   All I know is that I'm glad I'm not making these decisions right now, what a shit show we are in.  

55 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

My friend threatened to quit being a Physican Assistant if they did this. The only exception is medical or religious reasons. 

https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governor-cuomo-announces-covid-19-vaccination-mandate-healthcare-workers

And she should quit.  If she doesnt believe the science she shouldnt be treating people.  If I found out the medical staff treating me weren't following medical science I'd ask for someone else.  

53 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Argument win. Back peddling. And the monroe county numbers? Thats a pretty big increase of 15000.

Back peddling?  You must be the type of gambler that loses 1000 dollars one week, makes a 100 the next week and thinks they are winning.  The city of Rochester is struggling big time.  The numbers are bad. 

The Monroe county numbers are good though. Not amazing but good. I’ll take them for sure though. I need to dig in and see where these people come from (home grown/local or true out of state transplants). When a parched Cali breaks off into the Pacific they will come streaming in. 
 

Edit - I see the one website I posted last night has different numbers for the county. So I was in error there.

9 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Delta if you read what I said was it was a 5000 increase from 2019 when the estimate was 205695. Plus monroe county gained 15000. Where am I wrong?

 

Ok, first off we can’t trust the 2019 numbers because there was no census done. Those numbers are extrapolated in strange ways.  Second, we have to look at the big picture. If we only gained 700 people over a decade, that trend is more important than a small incremental jump from one year to the next, which again is only an estimate. The good news is that somehow we did actually gain population, albeit the tiniest amount. 

An analogy would be like saying you had 100 dollars in 2010. In 2019 you had 50 bucks left. In 2020 you had 105 dollars. You didn’t gain 55 dollars. You really only gained 5. 

11 minutes ago, tim123 said:

You cant even admit when your wrong. Real mature. Not surprised at all really. But would expect no less from a blowhard.

Again with the name calling?? 

I’m only posting data from census.gov. The real numbers. We only have accurate numbers every ten years (the others are estimates and not confirmed). Between 2010 and 2020 we grew by 763 people. That’s a cold hard stat. I don’t understand why you don’t agree with that. 
 

6 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Delta just hope you get a wind storm that blows harder than you do. 

Lolz. Imagine being an “adult” and thinking that’s a “sick burn”. Grow up man.   Plus you’ve used that same line like 3 times. Did you ever even graduate high school? 

8 hours ago, tim123 said:

Eat it deltat13. At one point between 2010 and 2020 the estimate for city was 206000. So 211000 was a 5000 increase. And monroe county increased 15000. So your data is old.

Even when I post pictures of accurate numbers you still can’t interpret them correctly.  Im not surprised. It stupid to argue over things that are direct facts. 
 

Just like everytime there is a north wind the southern shore is going to get 20 inches of snow!!!!  (Which never happens). 

That line of storms looked pretty innocuous but it had incredibly torrential rain. Looks at these number in just 6 minutes since the first drop fell!

4 hours ago, tim123 said:

From 2010 to 2020 roc gained 5000 monroe county gained 15000

And you also managed to get the Monroe population wrong. With just the most minimal effort could actually post factual information. 
 

4 hours ago, tim123 said:

From 2010 to 2020 roc gained 5000 monroe county gained 15000

Well I just posted the direct census results that show Rochester gained 654 residents between 2010 and 2020. Try to keep up. 

It's interesting that we just started talking about local city populations and now today I see several articles about Rochester's population.  

This was an interesting excerpt.  Looks like we've finally just barely stopped the hemorrhaging of people as we had an infinitesimal gain in the last decade. 

"Data showed that Rochester's population grew to 211,328 people in 2020 from 210,674 in 2010, a gain of 654 residents. The increase, however modest, was the first the city has seen in the decennial census since 1950, when its population stood at 332,488."

Still a sad state of affairs around here, but I love this city anyway.

4 hours ago, tim123 said:

Actually roc and monroe county gained past 10 years

Aside from a tiny little gain from 2008-2010 (because of the crash) it’s been all downhill since the 50s

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I knew the roads have been getting busier but did not expect that big of an increase. The traffic in Hamburg is insane lately.

From April 1, 2010, to April 1, 2020, the population in Erie County increased by 35,196 people, from a total of 919,040 people in 2010 to 954,236 in 2020.

The news is even better for adults. According to the new data, the population in Erie County of people 18 and older increased by 42,024, a 5.8% change from 10 years ago.

In addition, the population in the City of Buffalo grew by 6.5% in the last ten years. Increasing from 261,310 people in 2010 to 278,349 in 2020, according to the new U.S. Census data. 

Erie County is the only county in the Western New York area with a total population increase in the last ten years. Niagara and Genesee counties, however, did see small increases in people 18 and over, but the total population in those counties is down from 10 years ago.

https://www.wgrz.com/article/news/local/erie-county-population-grew-for-first-time-in-decades/71-84df3983-72c5-4fce-b804-2c727219ea37?fbclid=IwAR1uBe25EznKzBgjCX6Km_cgxqMTrStRgBoCV8Z1cPn6kpiJqx-iyEXMxHo

That's really impressive and encouraging for good ol Buf!    I think Monroe county and Rochester has lost residents every year for 2 decades straight.  We are the poorest city in America for our size and have one of the highest crime rates in the nation.  Rochester is barely treading water these days....eek..  

3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

It's coming. I would take last winter over again though, lots of good LES bands over WNY. The year before had none whatsoever.

Those 6 weeks from the last week of January to the first week of March were incredible.  I think we will look back on that run in a few years and realize it was under appreciated.  And yes, Lake Erie brought the goods a few times as well.  That day after Christmas chase was epic.  I gave last winter a solid B even though it all came in one 6 week period.

The weather has been absolutely perfect this week, straight up tropical with these dp's.  The air feels like a soft warm blanket especially with these overnight lows in the mid 70's.  I laid out watching the perseid meteors at 3am and it was 75!  I wouldn't want this for months on end, but a couple weeks is absolutely glorious.  I'll be sad to see it go.  

As for the storms, yeah that was a disappointment.  I feel like immediately after my post yesterday saying that the HiRes NAM had been doing well lately it has completely shit the bed the last 24 hours with completely bogus outputs. Ugh.. 

19 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Check this out so close and the rotation is incredible

https://www.facebook.com/WeatherNation/videos/365946691597150

Wow!  Doesn’t get much better than that. 

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

They go to school for 4-6 years and do this full time for their jobs. They know a lot more about what the atmosphere is doing then I do. Why put weather balloons into the air if the data sucks? 
 

I don’t even think it will rain here. This mornings storms were the ones to be up for.

You underestimate what you know and overestimate what they can do in a nowcast scenario like this. Every mesoscale model had a wildly different output. 

3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

How do these guys really not know whats going to happen an hour out from a severe weather event. SMH

You know exactly why?  Do you know what’s going to happen in the next hour?  You have access to everything they do.  I had no idea. Highly complex mesoscale weather can beat the models in these scenarios. 

2 hours ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

That’s the direction we always get our tornadoes from in WNY. The one in Hamburg/OP a few years ago, and the Cheektowaga tornado in summer of 2006 I believe it was. 

That has a straight line wind/weak derecho look to it.  I don't think we have the shear to worry about tornados.  That said, I love the look of an strengthening MCS after sunset. It usually brings a lot of lightning which is always better at nighttime!  The NAM has actually done quite well with convection inside about 12-18 hours this summer.  Should be an interesting evening!