DeltaT13

I know its Breitbart, but oh my...the mental gymnastics needed to make this argument.  It's 12D chess man...  Now its the left's fault that the right won't get vaccinated.  Good grief. 

https://www.breitbart.com/entertainment/2021/09/10/nolte-howard-stern-proves-democrats-want-unvaccinated-trump-voters-dead/

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

OSU says he doesn't see how UHI explains that, all those other locations have asphalt and concrete too. 

It seems like the amount of concrete directly surrounding the ASOS at the airport is certainly much more than a neighborhood where trees and grass are interspersed all over, I mean just look at this picture.  Which area is WAY different than the others??...hmmmm, seems pretty obvious to me.  The trees also do an amazing job of shadowing concrete at points during the day while the airport just bakes from sunup to sundown.

I also wonder if the thermal mass of the runways and parking lots create better mixing that prevents the atmosphere from decoupling as effectively directly around the airport during the nighttime hours. 

4 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Ok… the UHI theory hits a bit of a snag… The KBUF temp is taken at the ASOS which turns out is located in the dead center of the airfield… There is a lot of newer commercial buildup near along the east side of the airport… but also a lot of wide open area as well… 

I’m not sure if this hurts or helps that theory IMO.  The amount of pavement and building within one square mile of that ASOS is pretty intense. There is some serious thermal mass. 

Also, to continue down the urban heat island discussion.  I often play softball in the evenings on the East side of Rochester and I live on the West side of Rochester.  As I drive home, the temperature will often increase a good 7-10 degrees from the softball fields in perinton to downtown Rochester and then the temp will drop back another 7-10 as I exit the downtown area and head home.  I can literally feel it with my arm out the window.  I think some of you are severely underestimating how powerful this effect is.  

1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I could go with the heat island theory IF it was snack downtown but it’s on the border of Williamsville off Youngs…I can’t believe the runway would make that much if a difference 

It's not just the runway, its the GIGANTIC parking lot literally less than 100 feet from the measuring area.   I have to assume that makes some sort of impact.  We also still don't definitively no where they take their measurements.  If's at the actual office, then I think they would see a big impact from those parking lots.  If it's somewhere else, then we really have no idea how to correlate this issue.

EDIT- I'm just now seeing the post above.  It's the same thing I mentioned a few months back and I posted about it.  There is a new HUGE parking lot that was recently added.

 

25 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I think the GFS has lost its mind

The GFS has been completely over amplified garbage outside of 240 hours for the last couple of years.  I'm really surprised they haven't found a way to tweak it.  The output past 300 hours are literally insane.  I mean how is someone who designs and vets these models ok with snow in North Carolina on that run.  Its virtually impossible.  

3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I did not know you lived in Buffalo before moving to Rochester. I grew up on the west side of Buffalo for this storm and remember jumping out the 2nd story into a giant snowpile in the front of the yard. We lived on Breckenridge road and each side had cars parked as there are no driveways so the entire road was a giant snowpile. That was the storm that set off my fascination with weather. We lived in a duplex my mom/dad on the bottom floor and my uncle/aunt above. We had so much fun making snow castles during that one. 

In regards to the radar, it looks like this was the first real event that it was tracked. 

Buffalo's new Doppler radar was available for this entire event and 
it worked extremely well. The low 0.5 degree elevation angle allowed 
us to pinpoint the location of the snowbands to the nearest mile or 
two around Buffalo ...an immense aid in doing Nowcasts and SPSs. The 
suppression of ground clutter worked perfectly. We were even able to 
see the edge of the Lake Ontario band as far east as Oswego and some 
activity near the southern edge of Georgian Bay. The BUFKIT and 
BUFKITE model profilers were excellent in timing of wind shifts and 
associated band movements ...but there was a slight problem on Lake 
Erie with the northward movement of the band on Sunday morning. Both 
models worked almost perfectly in forecasting veering winds during 
Saturday evening...with the NGM furthest south at about 265 ...but 
the NGM kept the winds at that angle for Sunday...while ETA was 
closer to 250. Actually, the bands moved north to a 240-245 vector 
for most of Sunday. 

Oh heck yeah, I'm a Buffalonian at heart (even though I was a North Tonawandan, haha).  Moved to Rochester when I was 22 to start my job at the University or Rochester. 

It was Southwest wind lake effect events that ignited my passion for weather at a very early age, probably around 7 or 8 years old.  I was so baffled by how some places could have feet of snow while my yard had almost none.  I was convinced back then that if Grand Island didnt exist I'd get more snow, Haha! I didnt really have a good idea on the size and scale of lake effect at the time and just wanted to blame something for my frequent heartbreak.  I loved visiting my grandmas house in winter because there was always this outside chance that we'd get a ton of snow, weather was more exciting when you couldn't track it real time with radars, satellites, and models.  West Seneca seemed to do really well in the late 80's and 90's.  

31 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Got a feeling an event like this is coming for Buffalo this year. How many people were in Buffalo to witness this one, still holds the record for 24 hour snowfall at kbuf. At bottom of page you can see the radar for it, unreal snowfall rates. 

Over two feet of snow fell in about eight hours across most 
of the city of Buffalo and its near northern and eastern suburbs 
during Sunday.

https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=1995-1996&event=G

Incredible event.  I remember this one vividly, however it was a heartbreaker for me as a North Towner.  We were at my grandmas house in West Seneca when it began and the snowfall rates had to be 3-5"/hr.  This forced us to make a hasty departure and head home to North Tonawanda.   As usual, by the time we got home there was virtually bare ground...I was pretty used to this by that point in my life but I always hoped the bands would sneak a little further North.  Back then though, it was very hard to ever see a radar unless you got a glimpse on the weather channel so tracking it real time was almost nonexistent.  

My house was where the arrow is pointing  

8 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

You really going to argue that this is better? The most powerful man in the world doesn’t know how to handle himself next to a woman trying to give a televised speech?

 

Let’s just pretend he’s actual suffering from dementia there (which I assume is what your alluding to). At least he’s not willingly sucking up to a foreign dictator. I’ll take the guy that isnt actually aspiring to befriend a dictator any day of the week.

Joe Biden’s health has nothing to do with Trump being the weakest leader in our history.  I mean that video has literally nothing to do with the point I’m trying to make so I'm done arguing with your juvenile responses. 

10 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

You get yourself way too caught up in media spin. The truth with anything is always somewhere in the middle. I’m sure I could find more examples of disgusting things to hear from the other side.  

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-obama-russia-putin-sb-idUSTRE56657Q20090707

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/biden-praises-vladimir-putin-and-calls-him-a-worthy-adversary/vi-AAL2ndZ

 

 

Can you imagine if Obama had said this? Right wing heads would still be exploding.  It’s just so juvenile and narcissistic too.

First I’ve heard of this but not surprising after how fierce and organized that MCS looked last night

Something tells me this was probably a gustnado though.

22 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

As an aside..  NPR (much like the NYT, Wapo) is an interesting and prime example of what has happened to the traditional media in the US. It used to be a reasonably reliable in-depth source of information, left-leaning but I followed them, recognizing their political inclinations, writ large.  But since the advent of wokeness and Trump...it's gone full batshit crazy left, fully suscribing to the Marxist progressive Left agenda and the new puritanism - cancel culture. It's become unwatchable and esp on radio - unlistenable, chock-a-block full of class and identity agenda politics.  Its as if they want to out-Fox the Fox network news from the other side...and are succeeding. And don't take my word for it...Taibbi and Greenwald are left of Center journalists on Substack that I admire for their overall realism and recognition of how the insane Left is running broken field spiking their football in everybody's face.  Just an observation. 

Forget the source, just read all the direct quotes.  I agree there is a lot of spin, and I don't care about that aspect. I watched and read when he said all of the things outlined in that article....and it was disgusting to hear.  

21 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

Yes, I can. Thanks. My concerns reference the billions of dollars in debt we are in, and money just continues to be handed out. Where is all this money coming from? In addition, the pressures, taxes, regulations are very tough on the small businesses that so many citizens I love are having to close down. In my opinion and observation, our government is intentionally leading us into a situation where we as citizens HAVE to rely on them.

As far as world leadership,  Biden and his administration have greatly affected how the world perceives us as a "superpower" in their responses to Afghanistan, Mexico, etc... Talk about making us a laughing stock to the world. Russia and China immediately made their moves due to the departure. Perhaps that was inevitable, that they would make their moves...did Trump or Biden plan a way to deal with them? Any time other nations pushed, Trump pushed back. Biden? Nah. We don't hold much intimidation anymore in the grand scheme of world politics.

Ethically? I know people have different perspectives of ethics, so I'm not even going there. This one is based more on personal ethics.

To be clear, I do not "hate" Biden. I am genuinely concerned about the man's health...and it disgusts me that the democrats are using him as a pawn. When our "Commander in Chief" falls asleep during meetings, can't remember consistently what he is talking about, tries to get himself back on track by saying, "Look, ....." , and doesn't know where he is walking, I have concerns.

Yes, I believe our nation has made a mockery of the presidency...and NOT just with Biden.

My apologies, wolfie, as you mentioned this shouldn't be about politics. I figured I should respond to a question that was asked of me.

I just couldn't disagree more about world leadership.  Trump has openly idolized and adored the most ruthless leaders time and time again.  It's completely unacceptable and comes across as being just about as weak as you could imagine.  There is a reason other countries want Trump as president, and its certainly not because he plays tough.  He's a complete pushover who just wants to be liked and idolized, and they know it.   I really hope you read through this article at the things Trump has said about the worst dictators of our time.  It certainly doesnt come across as someone who draws a hard line.  

https://www.npr.org/2017/05/02/526520042/6-strongmen-trumps-praised-and-the-conflicts-it-presents

1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said:

Again, speaking from a politically moderate position, how can people ignore the "elephant in the room" that this current administration is completely destroying our economy, world leadership position, and pretty much the ethical standards in which we make decisions. So disgusted.

I feel like this post is far more accurate if we were discussing the previous administration.  It’s like a bizarro world.  Trump trashed the economy and sent the deficit to the moon with his horrible corporate tax cuts.  He idolized Putin and Kim Jong, making us look incredible weak.   Biden isn’t wonderful but to turn a blind eye to how we got here is ridiculous. If you think the country is ****ed it didn’t magically happen in 8 months, look back a little further. 

1 hour ago, Luke_Mages said:

Not to be insensitive to those who have passed or became seriously ill but holy literal ****. A country wide vaccine mandate? What a ****ing disaster, complete over reach. I’m no conspiracy theorist but it’s as if someone is purposely trying to rip the country apart. 

What’s odd to me is that we’ve had vaccine mandates for all sorts of diseases for decades and everyone was cool with it. This isn’t unprecedented, it’s just been politicized by the recent administration. 

54 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

Fascinating. How common is it to have tropical remnants cause a massive snowstorm? Even if it’s that far north. 

Not sure, probably happens more than we realize as I rarely check in on storms that are that far north.  Pretty cool though.

26 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

There is some good news about the climate this summer.

In regards to Arctic Ice coverage:

"We may have reached the area minimum on 9/1....we're currently about 75k above the 9/1 value of 3.19 million sq km. Still a bit too precarious to call it, but if we had a 9/1 area min, that would be the earliest min since 1992."

Also this is happening this week

Thats from the remnants of ol Hurricane Larry!

That storm mid next week is looking interesting.  Just kind of explodes through the lakes from nothing to sub 990mb in about 24 hours with the help from some strong coupled jets.  Could this be the first wind event of the fall season??..... one can only hope.  The trees will not be ready for this one.  

4 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Sooooo…if Syracuse Sizzles what is KBUF known for? It is 51 in Williamsville, 47 in Lancaster and somehow 56 at the airport which is sandwiched between both locations…I’ve heard of the urban heat island effect with all the concrete and steel structures maintaining  heat through the night while suburban and rural areas have more radiational cooling…but this doesn’t fit that bill…the only possibility is the size of the runway which is all concrete and spans a couple miles in 2 directions? If any one can explain this please do because just makes zero sense

It's a really good question where they take the actual temp measurement.  If its actually right on site where the NWS office is, there is an unbelievably giant parking lot that was recently expanded just South of them.  That 100 percent will have an effect on the local micro climate.  Now how do we figure out where the temp sensor is?  

15 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Some high end EF3 damage in there, low end Ef4. Those are well built new homes.

 

New homes are garbage in my opinion.  Old lathe and plaster homes with real brick and mortar are way more solid. That said, I don’t think many homes would survive an EF3 wedge regardless of their construction. 

5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

 

Great footage but a dumb caption. The backside is pretty much never worse.  There is nothing logical that could ever back up that statement 

Just some fun eye candy but the latest hi res has it sub 900mb. Wowzers!

I know its a bit early and dramatic but this setup in the Gulf is ideal for explosive deepening. I have to think a cat 5 is fully on the table at this point.  I'd be getting the F out of NOLA ASAP.  

Thats a beautiful bald faced hornet nest.  No need to do anything with it if you made it this far and haven't had an issue.  They are rearing queens for next year by this point and will wind down in the next 4-5 weeks.  They are valuable insect predator and get a bad rap IMO.    I've been studying Bees, wasps and ants my whole life.  I find them fascinating.  

57 minutes ago, Blue Moon said:

Hello folks,

I've just arrived in the area. I'll be living here as a student the next couple years. Pleased to meet you all! (virtual handshake)

Now, I've got a question: I noticed scores of dead trees scattered throughout the area as I drove in, and it started as far back as central Ohio (I took 71 and then 90). Are these the ash trees being killed off by the Emerald Ash Borers, or is this something else?

Thanks!

 

You got it, and welcome aboard.  900 million ash trees in this state and almost a third are already dead. Nothing stopping the borer at this point.  Good eye though. Most people I know have lived here their whole lives and haven’t noticed yet. Kinda sad.