DeltaT13

Looking back at my weather journal for this day in recent years and stumbled across this odd entry.  I have a vague recollection of this, but damn...what an odd one.

"A EF0 Tornado touched down in West Seneca in the middle of heavy graupel and lake effect rain event.  A strong front dropped south igniting already strong lake effect rain.  Somehow a tornado formed in this unusual airmass causing minor damage.  I think it was more of a hybrid waterspout, and would like to see the radar leading up to this event.  Regardless, a cool and very rare event.  Also (for future reading), there is a documented Tornado in a snow event on the Eastern end of Lake Ontario in Canada. “A Unique Cold-Season Supercell Produces an EF1 'Snownado”

17 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Mostly Sunny my ass.  Morning was perfect but that quick shower is turning into a bit of a dreary afternoon.  Got the breezy part right!

 

And when I see everyone talking about these outlooks weeks and months down the road… can’t even make today’s call accurate.

Yeah I would say today was a rare completely blown forecast.  I did not expect rain at all, and the models didn't really show it either.  Tough one for the NWS.  

Came up on my timeline today. 

That had to be one fierce waterspout if not a full blown tornado. 

2 hours ago, vortmax said:

Both you guys offer interesting perspectives. I would tend to agree with the 'refuse to shut down regardless of how many people had Covid' methodology as it's just not deadly enough to do so vs. the huge economic, mental, and social impacts to everyone else in the world . Check this out:

1) China’s zero-Covid policy is so strict that it shut down a key shipping terminal (3rd largest shipping port in the world) after just one case. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/13/chinas-zero-covid-strategy-to-disrupt-shipping-as-ningbo-zhoushan-port-shuts-.html

2) Largest port in South China (arguable the largest container port in the world) partly closed in June due to a few cases. https://us.leman.com/news/largest-port-in-south-china-partly-closed/

Just 2 POST-vaccine era examples of massive disruption of the GLOBAL supply chain due to a SINGLE case in one example and only a few in the other. Seems very unbalanced to me.

Let me just go conspiracy theory here for a second, and this is somewhat tongue in cheek, but China's reaction to this virus is a little frightening seeing as they likely engineered it.  What do they know that we don't?  They seem way more afraid of it than anyone else.  Kind of makes you wonder...

Rain delay seems imminent. 

11 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Good time to work on the radar as we continue this "dry spell" over the next 7-10 days...We have had "only" 0.46" through the first week of October, average is a touch over 5" for the month..

And just don’t the road in Roc I have 1.74 so far this month. That storm on Sunday Monday overachieved IMB.  

5 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

I don't know if anybody mentioned it, but 35 INCHES of rain in 24 hours in a city in Italy?!?! Yowzers!

Extreme rainfall in Liguria, Italy breaks Europe record | AccuWeather

So now in the last 6 years, they broke the all time 24 hour snowfall record and put up an incredibly respectable 12 hour rainfall record now too.  You don't think of Italy when you think of extreme weather, but here we are.  

1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said:

I see your point. I'd prefer to have some low 60s and 40s right now though. After all the warmth of the summer, I like a coolness in the air. The rapid warming we are going through makes me sick.

I would love for us to flip a solid switch into consistent winter. I'm thinking this winter might have a better chance of that than the past few. The Pacific has been dominating as of late though.

I mean these temps are pretty nice, low/mid 70's for highs and 50's for lows, low dewpoints too.  Even TughillMat has to approve of that, right?  Just wish it didnt get dark so soon.  I leave work and only have about 45 minutes of light  

2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

After next week's furnace (cringe) it will be double digits...

It's amazing.  We are getting a full bonus summer month this year (and in recent years).  The golf courses are in great shape, softball fields are mint, I'm finishing outdoor projects.  Lets keep it rolling and then flip a switch to winter.

3 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

It's doing it again... Been spot checking the temps around KBUF in the mornings and haven't seen any anomalies in a couple weeks now, until this morning.  Not a huge difference but still, KBUF sensor is running 2.5 - 3.0 degrees above all the other surrounding sites at 6am.  Spot checking a few of the hourly's it looks like around 3-4am something happened.  KBUF was inline at the 3am update only about 1 degree higher, but then at 4am update KBUF temp jumped 3 degrees while all the surrounding stations only showed a half degree or less increase in temp.  Really strange for sure.        

I still wonder if this is a mixing thing.  Perhaps personnel are arriving on site around that time and zooming around in vehicles and such.  Or maybe an early FedEx plane lands and stirs things up a bit.  

A few smudge pots around an orchard is enough to modify the temp over a fairly large area, seems like its possible that the air around the airport might be susceptible to mechanical mixing factors.  It certainly wasnt too sunny yesterday so UHI effects shouldn't have been too strong.

1 hour ago, Luke_Mages said:

Any thoughts on what happened with Antartica guys? Or do we think the northern and southern hemispheres are isolated enough to have it not really matter. 

Its interesting, they went from an above average amount of ice to below normal in less than a month, so certainly just kind of seems like an anomalous blip.  They also lost ice at very rapid clip during a time when historically the ice should have still been slowly increasing.  Things are certainly out of whack relative to the 30 year datum.  

32 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

It just confuses how I couldn't possibly have gotten it from my wife considering we shared the same space for days before she showed symptoms. So, could I have had it last week, and my immune system took care of it..yielding the negative result?

Covid is a fickle virus. I have heard similar stories many times now. It’s likely your body, immune system, blood type, etc simply handled the virus before it could get a stronghold. This should give you reasonable confidence going forward that Covid isn’t a concern for you.  Congrats! 

46 minutes ago, vortmax said:

How is she doing?? Better I hope?

Yup, finally turned the corner on Saturday morning, so very sick for 7 days.  She missed 5 straight days of work which I had never seen her do before.  I'm assuming it was RSV as I've heard that is currently circulating wildly and even taking down adults pretty hard.  I isolated from her all week in our guest bedroom and appear to have dodged it.  She's still hacking away with the residual crap in her lungs though; which I imagine will be ongoing for a couple of weeks.  

On 10/3/2021 at 12:22 PM, TugHillMatt said:

Well, my wife's oxygen level was at 93 and she couldn't breathe so I took her to the ER.

Her vitals were fine so they didn't take her in immediately. It's been THREE HOURS and she can't breathe! She just texted me and said "I might as well die at home."

Whats the latest?  Is her oxygen stable?  Getting better?  Scary stuff.  

On 10/2/2021 at 9:11 AM, BuffaloWeather said:

Yeah I mean 6 billion people around the world have had the shot, if there were any bad side effects we'd know by now. Its been out for over a year now. The long haul covid is very real and not something I would ever want. 

6 billion doses for 2.7 billion people.  So about 33% percent of the world pop. I’m only clarifying this because if we were actually at 6 billion people fully vaxed we’d be a heck of a lot closer to herd immunity.  Still we are making slow incremental progress. 

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Heat doesnt go on in my house until the first snowflakes fall. 

We have a no furnace until November 1st pact in our house. It’s gets pretty tough the last week or two of October but we make it nearly every year.  

My wife has been incredibly sick for the past 6 days.  Tested negative for Covid and Strep.  Not sure what it is, but its kicking her ass bad right now.  Scary time to be so sick with everything going on.  

We are getting closer and closer.....  One day at a time..

8 minutes ago, cny rider said:

Big piles of maple and ash leaves, all brown, in late September.

Who has that on their tourist foliage map I wonder?

That cluster is maple and ash mix and thinning out quickly.

I'm surprised you even have living ash trees there still!  There isn't a single living ash tree in Monroe county unless its been treated yearly.  

Rain is just about to stop here, currently at 2.32" since it started which exceeds what I expected.   A nice fall soak for the yard, glad I did some overseeding in the last few days!

41 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

 

Now, come on...it's not only people on the "right" who aren't getting vaccinated. Yes, there are more, but why must we make EVERYTHING left vs. right? It needs to stop. I know very intelligent and level-headed conservatives who have gotten vaccinated.

As to your second comment...most of us hope that OTHERS will grow OUT OF the mentality of feeling they need to bully others. Vort's point was that you will NOT get adults to do something by bullying, manipulating them (if they realize that's what is happening), and/or shaming them. Using bullying tactics to get people to get vaccinated is anti-proactive towards the main goal.

People have legitimate concerns and anxieties about getting vaccinated. Period. I did...and I had a very level-headed and respectful conversation with a colleague that helped me to decide to get it. 

Yo don’t shoot the messenger. I thought it was a ridiculous article, that’s all. It’s the first time I had seen such a bizarre angle used in regards to the vaccine.

My second comment is that as an adult I don’t allow myself to be bullied anymore so I found it odd that the whole premise of the article is that that the left is bullying the right. It’s kind of like “grow up”, in regards to that author. 

The author made it a very left vs right thing. I certainly know people on both sides of the political spectrum who have had vaccine hesitancy, and that’s fine.  

The bottom line is that I thought it was a ridiculous and downright comical article that you guys might enjoy. 

2 minutes ago, vortmax said:

That article is pretty, um, not professional, but there is one part that rings true:

And why is that a perfectly human response? Because no one ever wants to feel like they are being bullied or ridiculed or mocked or pushed into doing anything.

This is why many people I know aren't getting the vaccine that already had Covid (also they likely have natural immunity and aren't too concerned). 

Most of us outgrow that mentality in High School and no longer worry about other people bullying us.   I dunno....  It's a stupid article, but just kind of blew my mind how delusional the right is getting.  

On a happier note, 2021 has been one of better years in the past decade in regards to minimum ice extent.  As of the last few days, we officially turned the corner and the arctic ice pack has begun to build.  It really accelerates in October.  Lets GO!

5 minutes ago, vortmax said:

Makes me wonder how many new parking lots have been built near official stations. That could easily be a contributing factor as to why temps (especially in the winter) are warmer over the past 20 years.

This is always my go to point to exonerate local effects.  I don't think there are many parking lots in the arctic...