DeltaT13

16 hours ago, rochesterdave said:

We’ve yet to have our first flakes in Rochester. Looks like we wait a bit longer. 

Whaaat?  Really?  We had snow on three consecutive days. Most on the ground was .3” so far on Sunday night.  The squalls on Monday were impressive for the few minutes they lasted. 

7 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Has anyone noticed the west end of Lake Erie on radar? Those are some VERY healthy looking plumes aimed right at the metro/northtowns once the synoptic is done. The other lakes have really fired up with the passing of this S/W and thus could be interesting for a bit…

That’s some nice looking enhancement if it’s falling as all snow. 

Temp of 42 with a dp of 32, and I imagine we’ve hit our max temp for the day. I’m feeling confident I’ll get some snow this evening with precip starting right around sundown. Figure we should be able to at least get a coating. I’ll take it. 

I’m starting to think I missed out on a pretty fun day chasing. That is extremely intense “something” heading to Bweather.

The high res really picks up on these early season steamy lakes.  Check out this surface low hop scotching from Lake Michigan to Lake Erie and setting up shop for awhile when it gets there. Also cool to see how the plumes of lake effect get wrapped into it all of this. 
 

44 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

How is the foliage for everyone else?  A lot of the maple trees near me are still pretty lush, finally seeing some change today after the recent freeze but can’t say I ever remember seeing the trees so full so deep into November.  Might not be a good thing it we end up seeing snow into this weekend. 

Yup, we are on the cusp of having a big problem. Lot of trees are completely green as we’ve only had a couple frosts thus far. It’ll take several weeks to get these leafs down. And this first possible event comes right on the heels of this Indian summer we are having so we won’t make up any ground in the coming days. 

I’m putting my snow tires on this Thursday. Too many signals showing a significant SW event for Buffalo in the LR. I can’t miss one of these early season ones, they are usually the best ones.  

59 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

golf is too expensive. I love being in the woods and its free. 

Another great thing about fall and winter golf, the rates!  18 holes with a cart for 24 bucks!  13 dollars to walk!  Anyway, I don't consider this off topic because its been a real snoozer weatherwise so far....ugh.

 

Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

I'm a big disc golfer so my season goes pretty late as well. 

Definitely, I have a friend that literally plays 350 days a year around here.  He's obsessed.  

1 minute ago, Luke_Mages said:

Golfing on frozen ground can be a blast. The only way I'm ever hitting a drive 300yds.

yeah, I imagine mid winter golf brings some unusual "opportunities" and challenges.  Just fun to be outside as much as possible in my opinion.

22 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Looking quite toasty for the next 7-10 days. Bet we see a few 60 deg days, might reopen the pool to float. 

I'm loving the fact that golf is my new favorite sport.  I still love snow and cold, but now when its warm and toasty I have something really fun to do.  Definitely going to make these marginal winters going forward more tolerable.

1 hour ago, cny rider said:

Good riddance.  What a loser.

 

Eh, I'd say during that time period the sabres as a whole were the bigger losers.  I'll always feel bad that a potential star had to languish on one of the worst run teams in the last 20 years.  That's just bad luck.  

8 hours ago, Flying MXZ said:

With a bac of .161.  He better head to jail for a long time.

The women (and her dog) was apparently conscious and screaming inside as she burned alive.  She was found pinned under the wheel.  Meanwhile Ruggs girlfriend was yelling at the cops for help because Henry bumped his head and was going in and out of consciousness.  That asshole should rot in jail for the rest of his life but somehow I bet he'll be playing football again in 5 years.  This story makes my blood boil.   

This video is only useful to show how selfish his girlfriend was in this situation.  https://www.tmz.com/2021/11/04/henry-ruggs-dui-crash-video-swearing-sobbing-raiders-nfl/

45 minutes ago, WNash said:

I tarped my tomato plants for last night and tonight. My Tempest registered 32.4F early this morning, and I expect we will definitely see sub-freezing temps tonight, but I'm determined to stretch my fresh tomatoes as close to Thanksgiving as possible.

Don't your plants look like hot garbage by this point in the season?  I mean most tomato plants start looking pretty beat in September, let alone November.  That ship sailed a long time ago for me, but god speed if yours are still somehow producing.  Not sure a tarp is adequate though, doesn't really do much in regard to insulation. Tonight will be the coldest night of the season so far and then you look to get a bit of a reprieve.  Good luck!

10 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Is it normal to have all those solar events?  Maybe I just never paid attention before but seems like this is happening every few nights lately?  For viewing looks like we might have a little void in the clouds for a bit if it decides to show up. 

Solar cycle 25 is ramping up. Still several years away from peak but we just left one of the deepest solar minimums of our life time. It’s an 11 year cycle so it’s a long haul (basically had 4 straight years without a sunspot).
We had an active (complex magnetic fields) sunspot traverse the earth facing side of the sun over the last week which gave us these couple opportunities. It’s calming down again as it’s moving around to the backside of the sun now; but I’m thankful we’ll have some regular action over the next 3 years or so. 

Kp index just hit 7 which means northern lights should be visible on the northern horizon. Lake clouds are certainly and issue though. 

37 minutes ago, vortmax said:

Fixed the detailed forecast...lol

The most amazing part of that Alaska forecast is that there isnt a watch, warnings, advisory, or even a nowcast.  250" in a few days is apparently par for the course.  

I’m In Skaneateles for the weekend and couldn’t believe when I just checked my home weather stations and saw that we picked up another 2.18 since yesterday. That puts me to 8.49” on the month.  Two months out of the last 4 with over 8 inches of rain. Wow. 

Also, the largest solar flare in many years erupted off the sun yesterday and sent a strong Coronal Mass Ejection directly at earth.  Naked eye auroras seem highly likely tomorrow night... but I'm thinking we'll be completely socked in with clouds.  Thats a heart breaker.  

Well friends, we've made it to the point in the season where a legit snowstorm in the long range is no longer over amplified nonsense.  In the 2019/2020 winter we had the biggest storm of the entire season (depressing in hindsight) on 11//11/19.  Anything can happen from this point on.  Still waiting on my first frost here in the ROC, but this is pretty typical for my backyard at least.  

30 minutes ago, cny rider said:

You have to have wings at Duffs!

 

The duffs on Sheridan drive.  That’s the best and original one! 

15 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

So last night it was rainy at 10pm and all the stations were within a half degree of each other.  Tonight at 10pm its clear so yeah KBUF running 4-8 degrees warmer that surrounding sites, seems about right?  This is just crazy...

An interesting data point for sure.  Yesterday was wall to wall sun all day so this would continue to support some sort of solar induced urban heat island at that location. 

9 minutes ago, vortmax said:

Tempest says 3.54" for yesterday. Dang. Is this accurate?? 

I’ve found my tempest struggles the most with heavy rain events, usually erring on the higher side. However that number doesn’t seem obscene, just a little high. You should run a standard rain gauge in your yard to cross calibrate the two. 
Do you have “rain check” enabled?  It will try to determine the most accurate number after the storm by confirming with other nearby stations. 

Sierras getting destroyed the next 36 hours. 40-80”

1 hour ago, rochesterdave said:

Man o’ man. These LR’s sure have been depressing the last few days. That SE ridge is starting to feel permanent. Puke

I've been obsessed with golf this summer, so I'm trying to make lemonade out of this scenario.  If this winter is going to suck, I'll trade in my snowboard for my clubs and golf well into January, if not straight through the winter. I know friends who did that in the epically bad winter of 2011-2012.   Even last year I had friends golf in every month except February.  You just gotta roll with the weather and make the most of it.