DeltaT13

33 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Ideal would look like 24F, good RH, steep lapse rates and 250 degree 25 mph wind. At kick off. 

Hey, we can dream!

Well yeah man! I want nothing more than 5”/hr.  I’m trying to figure out the best we can do with a stupid cutter. 

55 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Upgraded to a blizzard warning lol

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
326 PM HST Thu Dec 2 2021

...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS...

HIZ028-031430-
/O.UPG.PHFO.WS.A.0004.211204T0400Z-211205T1600Z/
/O.NEW.PHFO.BZ.W.0001.211204T0400Z-211205T1600Z/
Big Island Summits-
326 PM HST Thu Dec 2 2021

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM HST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of
  up to 12 inches or more. Winds gusting over 100 mph.

* WHERE...Big Island Summits.

* WHEN...From 6 PM Friday to 6 AM HST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Blowing
  snow will significantly reduce visibility at times, with periods
  of zero visibility. See the High Wind Warning that is also in
  effect.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strong winds will likely cause
  significant drifting of snow.

It’s always interesting to see the setup when Hawaii gets a big shot of cold and snow.  In this scenario, an unbelievably deep and explosive mid latitude cyclone explodes off the coast of Russia deepening 40mb in about 24 hours. This forces a massive downstream ridge that then pinches off a chunk of arctic air over the central pacific. It gets hung up for a few days as a cutoff low.  
 

48 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

GFS is not even showing a lake response off Erie after this system passes through Monday PM.  Not buying it.  RGEM and NAM will finally get to chime in on the 12z run tomorrow!  Only trend on GFS that is concerning (if your hoping for a snow game Monday night) is how much it has slowed everything down.  Here’s a loop of the past 5 runs all for 7pm Monday.  At this rate you guys might just be getting blown over and soaked by the initial frontal passage for kickoff. 

That’s a good trend for me. I’d love to see the frontal passage closer to kickoff (only because I think a true lake band is completely off the table at this point) because about 40 mins after the cold front is usually the peak times for gusts.  The ideal setup is a frontal passage around 730 while tailgating. Then winds ramping up big time right into kickoff and through the first half with gusts to 50-60. Then by second half we have scrappy snowflakes and a stiff breeze as temps plummet.  Perhaps getting a coating on the field.   I think that’s about the most interesting scenario right now. 

3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

High winds don't really work with lake effect, but would really impact the Bills game. @DeltaT13 would be on cloud 9 with snow and high winds. 

Heck yeah, that’s why I couldn’t miss this game even though it’s looking like it’ll just be high winds by game time. I mean I’m super pumped just to see a meaningful and exciting Monday night game in Buffalo. Exciting weather is just the icing on the cake. 

13 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

 

Were we expecting a line of convection to form this afternoon?  Was just looking out a window facing west and sky towards the lake is pitch black right now.  

It's a sharp cold front plowing through 50 degree air.  Seems plausible. 

3 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

So another case of “the vax works”… I’m still just so on the fence about the booster I don’t know why… the more stories I hear from people I know the more I want to get it, but then you hear those handful of crazy stories and you step back and say I’m good!

So I've thought a lot about the vax and the potential side effects and I think a couple things are clear.  If a person had bad side effects from the vax, then covid itself was probably going to cause the exact same issues, if not worse.  The vax initiates virtually the same response as the virus, just in a controlled dose.  So if the guy that got blood clots and lost his sight didn't get vaxed, he might have gotten worse blood clots and died had he caught covid.  Therefore it wasn't necessarily the vax, its that persons body is particular vulnerable to this type of virus.

Also, if you got the first 2 doses and had no issues, there is almost no reason to think that the booster would cause an issue, your body luckily didn't have that rare and unfortunate reaction to the virus or vaccine spike proteins.  Now when they change the formula for the next variant, that could changes things a bit, so if I were you, I'd grab the exact same brand booster before they change things up.  

42 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Would be awesome to get that band over orchard park for a Monday night game. 

Well I officially have tickets now so I'll be there!

2 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Patriots and Bills played a MNF game in Buffalo on Oct 29 2018… Bills starting QB… was checks notes… Derek Anderson? 

I just came in to post this.  I was at that bizarre game.  It was all field goals until the fourth quarter. Not the Tom Brady shootout I was expecting.  A snoozer of a game to be honest.  I threw some great cornhole in the parking lot beforehand which was the highlight of the night, lol.

10 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

The REAL reason @DeltaT13 loves the wind...

The wind bringeth, and the wind taketh.

1 hour ago, rochesterdave said:

Don’t forget, the backside snows are always overdone on the models. For everyone except the traditional snowbelts it means soaking rain followed by an abrupt and windy shutdown of moisture. Delta will like the cold winds. Lol 

It is surprising how close a couple of them look- I don’t buy it. I’d look for big adjustments NW in this pattern. Which I think the disco was alluding to. With the accompanying chances for localized Buf snows. 

I really need gusts above 50mph to get my juices flowing.  But since it’s been so damn dead I guess I’ll have to accept this as it’s better than nothing. 

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Nov. final numbers

BUF: +1.2    5" of snow

ROC: - 0.9   3.9" of snow

WAT: +0.5 

SYR:  +0.5  4.2" of snow

BING: -1.5   5.6" of snow

Holy crap, Bing winning again for now.  

12 hours ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

Looks like conditions will heavily favor the Patriots with their strong run game and physical offensive and defensive lines. Meanwhile the Bills passing game will likely be significantly affected by snow and strong winds and we can’t depend on our run game against their defense to bail us out. Don’t see how these conditions would help in any way what so ever for the way the Bills are built. They need a dome and that is the only way I would support a new stadium being built. 

If the Bills get a dome I'll quit being a fan after more than 40 years.   That has to be one of the lamest things I've seen posted on this site in awhile (no offense to you).  The Buffalo Bills are known as a gritty tough team, we don't need no stinking dome.  Dome's shouldnt be allowed anywhere in this sport.  The whole point is to play in the elements.  

33 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

I feel like you’re basing all your rosy opinions off of the hills near Holliday Valley. I think we have a single poster who lives down there (vacation home). It’s simply not realistic for the majority of us. 

I know last winter wasn't amazing for most of us, but the four week period from January 22 to late February was pretty damn incredible, 50 inches of snow over 4 weeks without a thaw in my backyard.  If you have a job where you can take a last minute day off, there were some all timer days on the slopes last year.  I had phenomenal days at Holiday (lake effect dump on 1/19, they got buried), Bristol, Greek Peak, and Gore.  The Greek Peak day was one of the deepest powder days I've ever had on the East Coast, but you have to be able to adapt on the fly around here.  Some of my friends have to schedule days off months in advance, that doesn't work out well for them...    I give last winter a B- overall, but the skiing was pretty great.  

4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I've sat in the rain for 3 games already this year, it better be a snowstorm this time around.

Icon has a northern stream weaker storm

I'm even fine with a rain game, I just want some kind of inclement miserable weather.  Nothing more boring than a bluebird football game.  Give me rain, give me wind, but most of all, give me SNOW.   Stubhub seems to have a lot of reasonable tix up in the 300's, and thats the best place to be in shitty weather!

5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

@DeltaT13 You going to Monday night game against the Pats, last few days have showed a storm for the game. I'll be there!

GAHHH.....I don't have tickets and imagine they are crazy expensive in the aftermarket.  The models have been bouncing between a rain storm and snow storm.  If its a snow game I'll be devastated if I can't be there.  

Just now, Flying MXZ said:

I almost posted that I though the average for November was a bit misleading as it is probably a mix of great years, and years with next to nothing.  And it sure appears that way based on your chart.  I'm not doing the standard deviation or anything, but looking at the numbers, it appears maybe 3 out of 22 years can be considered near average.  

Yup, the median for that data set is 3.1".   Standard Deviation is 6.2"

All in all, November is not a winter month around here in general.  You can catch some bonus snow some years, but I would never get my hopes up in November.  I would go further and say that anytime prior to December 15th is still wishful thinking if you want consistent cold and snow.  

Alright, crunched some numbers to see how Novembers snow stats have fared in the ROC since the year 2000.

2000    7.3
2001    0.1
2002    16.9
2003    5.4
2004    1.9
2005    7.8
2006    0.5
2007    1.7
2008    11
2009    0.1
2010    0.4
2011    0.3
2012    0.8
2013    13.5
2014    9.1
2015    1.2
2016    15
2017    2.6
2018    17.4
2019    17.8
2020    1.2
2021    3.6
Average    6.2"

If we remove the 5 somewhat outlier years with greater than 13" of snow, the average falls to 3.1" which puts 2021 pretty close to on par with the typical year.  I didnt realize the back to back big Novembers of 2018 and 2019 were so anomalous now that I see a larger data set.  
 

1 hour ago, rochesterdave said:

I’ve yet to have a single inch on the ground. Had 1/2” on the ground several times yesterday at different times. But it’s been a horrible November snow-wise in Rochester. A little complaining is in order. 
 

Getting zero snow in November is always on the table for Roc and WNY. The fact that we’ve had snow in the air a good 7 or 8 days is impressive in my opinion.  It can take until January some years before we really establish a wintry pattern.

I agree that the expectations around here seem higher than normal and quite out of touch to be honest. 

Sitting at 32.5 degrees here with perfect snow globe snow. The radar looks waaay better than I had expected.  Should be a snowy afternoon in the roc! 

13 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

6 to 8 inches here overnight! I am on the leader board for a few days! 

Since you basically now have the statewide snowfall lead, you aren’t allowed to say the word sizzle until at least the new year. 

Finally ran out of space on here (again). It’s silly that we have to delete those files. Completely ruins this forum from being a really nice weather archive as all the old posts reference pics and data that is no longer there.  I’d gladly pay a fee to just have a couple GBs of space on here. 

Looks like the upstream connections are just now finally starting to lock in. Orleans county lighting up a bit in those last few frames.  Might be some surprises overnight. It looks pretty damn healthy upstream. 
 

11 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Don't blame him. BGM NWS was already posting pictures and discussion of it on their Social Media.

Oh that’s bizarre. They probably don’t even remember the right date. Lol. 

12 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Same here all about the big one.

Happy 1 year binghamton crew. craziest synoptic storm I've ever seen in Upstate. 40-45" across areas just west of Bing with 3-5"+ rates.

 

This storm happened on 12/16/21. You’re a month early on this anniversary. 

37 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

I don’t know what to tell you. I’ve yet to see an ‘unmangled ’ flake. There’s been zero accumulations in Pittsford or Irondequoit. 

Dang, getting screwed on the East and North Sides I guess.  I guess the one that confuses me most is Sunday night when it snowed steadily for about 4-5 hours (7pm-midnight) areawide as that sloppy disorganized low came through and I thought hit all of WNY. I have no idea how you didnt get snow from that setup.