DeltaT13

Looks like a nice little night on lake Ontario tomorrow even.  Just some casual 22 foot waves.  
 

WSW wind 44 to 49 kt decreasing to 28 to 33 kt. Winds could gust as high as 65 kt. Showers likely, mainly before 1am. Waves 22 ft subsiding to 12 ft.

Just now, vortmax said:

Would love to hear an analysis on this upcoming event. To really make the widespread 65+ gusts happen, I think Delta got it right - it's just not happening at the optimal time of day. Even though there is good CAA/pressure rises post-front, there will be little to no diurnal mixing to help out.

This storm would be truly scary if the frontal passage hit mid day.  I think we still see sporadic damage but dodge a major bullet. 

1 hour ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

High Wind Warning now, gust to 70 mph.

Seems like the real deal.

 

 

We can only hope!  

47 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

It seems a bunch of you have been at least a little fortunate these last few day. I’ve still, as of yet, to see my first real inch. 
It snowed for several hours yesterday but didn’t really add up- daytime warmth, etc. 

Havent looked but the Roc airport’s probably claims we had 3” or something. Don’t buy it. 

Its not even real winter yet….

I had a little over and inch from the last couple days of light snow.  My snowboard had about 1.5" but its a bit biased because it accumulates on it more effectively early in the season with marginal temps.  Definitely a slow start but I seem to be doing a tad better than you so far, I'm at 5.6" on the season.  

33 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I'll be at lakeshore at 2-3 PM, should be peak conditions. 

This storm looks to be just 3 or 4 hours too slow to really be the big one.  We need these frontal passages to happen during the diurnal max, a late morning front passage would be perfect, but even early afternoon would be passable.  Instead, it looks to cross right around sunset and thus we lose out on the peak mixing.  A little further west in your backyard (BW) you are might squeak out some better winds.  The last 2 big storms (the last couple of years) have flopped because we didnt get the timing right, such a shame.

I was just looking through the CIPS analogs for this weekends storm. Some pretty big hits showing up. I recognize 2 or 3 of those off the top of my head. The 1/9/08 storm had a 75mph gust at Kroc and caused some of the most extensive tree damage I have ever seen around here.  The frontal passage had a low topped line of convection with embedded bowing segments, it came through around 445am with an absolute freight train of a blast.  Woke me from a dead sleep and genuinely scared me for a few seconds. Wild stuff. I had an incredible amount of pictures from that storm but they were all lost in a hard drive crash..still bums me out  

These other images just show the percent possibility of high winds. The fact that the >55kts page isn’t blank is amazing. That’s a serious gust. 
 

Stumbled across this image in my archive of weather things today.  A major northtown special was on tap way back in 2010.  I haven't looked to see how it panned out yet. 

2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Ok, this is where people who hate snow must get confused with me.... WHY would you like seeing 70 mph gusts? I realize it's a rare occasion and that can be exciting, but all it does is damage things.

Well I can enjoy wind without it having to damage something, but I do understand they go together at times.  I'm not worried about my house, I have the right preparations to avoid damage in all but the worst scenarios.  I don't understand how people who like weather don't enjoy wind, its one of the greatest visualizations of this giant fluid that we are living in and how it all goes together.  The power of it and how there is nothing we can do about it, it's just awe inspiring.  

Why would someone like snow?  All it does is cause accidents and hinders people, while at times causing damage and death.  I mean its the same thing to be honest.  

54 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

Finished with an additional .8 “ here so storm total is 8.5” . Warning criteria when there was nothing posted at the start of the event. 

Here is the question I always ask, was a warning actually needed?   I think anyone in that snowbelt can handle 8 inches of blower powder without advanced notice.  Seems like you all took it in stride.  I didnt hear of any catastrophes, no roads shut down, no massive pile ups.  Just a perfect day for you lucky bastards

20 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Saturday looking to be a classic high wind event. 

YES! Just came in to say that the 12z GFS is really trending in a nice direction for a very solid wind storm.  GFS probably overamps its a little but it has a low pressure rapidly deepening as it passes by, now dropping to 970mb, looking really good at this point in time.  We don't appear to have issues with a thermal trough developing that robs us of the rapid pressure increases post frontal passage either.  Would love to see this trend continue.  

11 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

First the Bills lost last night and now this. I need a break from Buffalo sports for awhile

I don't care who did it or against what team, that is just plain awesome.  I know those guys mess around like that in practice but to see it executed perfectly in a real game is fantastic.  

6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Yeah, grass and roads covered here, nice beautiful flakes. 28 degrees with moderate snow.

If only we could have had this 24 hours ago.  Taking aim right at Orchard park

Looks like another wind event this weekend, at least I can hang my sad snowless hat on that fact and have a tiny bit of joy.

1 hour ago, Flying MXZ said:

The Bills d-line got their asses kicked. They’ll need to straighten that out to win any meaningful games. 

To be honest, the Bill's D kept us in that game and really only gave up that one giant run early on.  Our offense is in god damn shambles though.  No creativity, no spark, ugh.  

3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

@DeltaT13 Its snowing here with some flakes, going to tailgate with that barstool sports guy in a bit!

We are way out in the boonies. It’s ****ing wild. Some of those squalls were intense. 

9 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

We’re in gravel lot @DeltaT13across street  from car wash 

I’m just getting on the road now so it’ll be a mad dash. I’ll let you know when we arrive. 

5 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

A fourth crap winter will drive me to the looney bin. None of you guys really want it. Buf says he does just because he enjoys annoying us sensitive types. Lol. He makes a perfect little brother for our board. 

I have long since given up on getting mad about what the weather does, I just observe and enjoy it for what it is.  I love snow, but a warm winter has opportunities too.  

42 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

@DeltaT13 Would still like to meet up for a beer you tailgating?

 

We can definitely try. Depends when I get in and what lot.  I’ll message you on fb 

41 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Somebody wake Delta up so he can go wind chasing...

Why am I getting dragged into this. Haha. This “wind event” is pretty borderline at this point. 

6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Even the wind side of this storm has really fizzled out, kind of a non event now     Let’s hope that opens up our passing game at least!

8 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Although our winters are getting milder, we still get the relentless cloud cover from the Great Lakes. I know multiple families that are moving OUT of the area and this is one thing every one of them has mentioned: the cloudiness. So now while we are milder, I find it even more depressing because there is a lack of snow to brighten up stick season and the brown-ness. That's why I call our winters "eternal November." 40s, 40s, rain, snow showers, melt the next day...maybe a week or two of consistent winter weather... 40s...WIND....

But, the cloud cover has a huge effect on people and I think is a large player on how long people can last living in an area. The lack of Vitamin D really gets to people. People may not like snow, but the extra brightness it can provide makes a difference. 

While I agree with this from a seasonable depression standpoint, even if it was sunny all day the sun angle isn’t high enough this time of year to produce vitamin D at this latitude. That’s why winter time is when viruses circulate. It’s vitamin D deficient season.  Get your supplements! 

9 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Well I for one would NOT care for an influx of population. One of the the appeals to me is MOST of our population is Buffalo born and bred or ties to the region. IF an influx of people from other parts of the country were to take place you can guarantee three things…housing prices will increase substantially overtime as new developments would need to be built to keep up with a booming population and therefore increasing prices on homes…the infrastructure would begin to take a beating and our paltry (in comparison) traffic “jams” would actually become a major issue…there is quite a bit of seasonal tourism here that would go away (skiing, possibly fishing and hunting as more land becomes unavailable) and if you want to press a 4th reason taxes would also increase to cover the levies on increase population and infrastructure rebuilding. Fir those reasons I hope WNY stays just like it is. Every part of this country has issues that make it undesirable and if taxes are ours I’m ok with that.

Rochester is the poorest city in America for its size. I’d rather us not stay just how we are. This city is struggling big time. Bring in some new bodies and cash please.  We have no right to turn anyone away. Let’s revitalize this area while we still can. Just buy your house or land now before it’s too late. 

2 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said:

How has it gotten this bad? We have become the mid-Atlantic with storm tracks and cold air. Our cold is transient, and the storm track now seems to keep our CWA on the warmer side of most systems. We no longer have past climo to look at as the new era of climo has taken over. We will see snow this year, but I’m no longer expecting weeks of winter, more like a few days every couple weeks surrounded by milder air and rain. The new norm.

And for 95% of the population this is phenomenal news.  Nearly all people hate winter and one part of the mass exodus from this state has certainly been the long relentless winters (taxes being the primary driver).  Something tells me that there may be a resurgence into upstate in the next decade as water woes, wildfires, rising sea levels, and catastrophic hurricanes force people back into a more stable area.  Add on a relatively reasonable housing market and it starts looking pretty appealing.  Adding 5-10 degrees into our area makes the summers a little hotter, but still manageable while shrinking the winters from 6 months of brutal cold and snow to about 3. It’s going to suck for us winter lovers but overall this is a  win for the grand majority of the Northeast. Climate change will always have winners and losers. And sadly, I think most people see this as a vast improvement going forward. I know many of my coworkers mention how winters are getting a lot easier over the past decade or so. 

1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said:

All this wind...is it March?

Fall and Spring are the big wind seasons.  The transitional periods

I've lost most of my hope on interesting weather for the game, but this will still be the most exciting and important game of the season for us.  Time to focus on football I guess, haha.  No Tredavious White has me quite concerned.