DeltaT13

Here we go 

56 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Schools dropping like flies…Amherst, Depew on top of BPS…and my kids were just told Williamsville CSD closed

Amherst, geez...they are on the hairy edge of getting zilch (IMO), that is before tomorrow at least.  Perhaps later tomorrow or tomorrow night when the next shortwave approaches they might get in the game..  Anyway, that was a bold call.  

13 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Latest HRRR run blast metro Buf

I don’t think I’m going after this one but that does look enticing. Chasing in the metro and heavily populated areas is my absolute favorite 

2 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

BTV has a nice hit with the northern edge hugging downtown south for majority of event.  QPF max around an inch through most of central Erie which would fit right into the 12-18” range with the 15/20 ratios.  Can’t believe you guys are getting bummed already.  

There will be a strong lake response, I just don't think we can be so sure on the band placement being as far North as we originally anticipated.  

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Latest GFS has a strong band for 36 hours with WSW flow. Storm is far enough offshore to not have too much of an impact.

 

I don't love the look of those isobars as that coastal storm is definitely changing the pressure gradient up in our neck of the woods.  I still can't really figure out how we will get such a prolonged southwest wind event aside from thermal troughing because of the warm great lakes.  This setup definitely does not have the typical hallmarks of a long duration SW wind event.  We want a closed mid level low up over Hudson bay and no storm off the East Coast.  Could definitely see those bands ending up further South....

3 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

You are a bit of an enigma with your I love snow but your "I don't care if it lasts" ideology....because then you make statements about how our lack of cold has ruined a lot of outdoor activities around here.   Snow duration and cold go hand in hand my man!

The game was great. Honestly one of my favorite games I’ve ever been too.  The only fans there seemed to be the true diehards as it had to only be about 70 percent full. The light snow that fell the entire game didn’t amount to anything but gave great ambiance, and they were perfect dendrites at that.  No annoying fans from the other team, because well, it was the falcons haha. Just a quintessential Buffalo game, and a clutch win. 

I don't usually get hung up on small variations in temps compared to forecasts, but tonight's low in ROC is forecast to be 17, its already 13 at the airport and 10 in my backyard.  Radiational cooling for the win, and impressively underestimated by the models.  

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Hey now. I think I'm one of the only ones here who ski, snowboard, and play ice hockey all winter. Not to mention winter hikes. What good is snow if you just look at it outside?

You are a bit of an enigma with your I love snow but your "I don't care if it lasts" ideology....because then you make statements about how our lack of cold has ruined a lot of outdoor activities around here.   Snow duration and cold go hand in hand my man!

3 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Delta you could score several inches on west side. 

Here's hoping.  2-3 inches is usually what we get as the band whiplashes back and forth.  During the 12/26 event last year I measured 1.3, but winds were light and inland penetration was not ideal in that setup.

14 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

You don't often see the band stretch into St. Lawrence county like that.

And you dont see a band that deep into Monroe county unless its a hybrid event with an arctic frontal boundary enhancing a lake band.  I'm staying conservative in my backyard with 2-3" in the best scenario.  

This event seems strongly driven by thermal troughing which I think is a tough wild card to bank on.  A secondary 500mb vort max/shortwave does come through on Thursday giving this event somewhat a of a two pronged evolution but I'm not completely sold on this being a blockbuster just yet.  Lot of moving parts on this one.  

Just now, Thinksnow18 said:

Did you go to NTHS

I did, I graduated with his sister.  

1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said:

While I agree about Mentkowski, I feel the other 2 are married to their in-house model too often and won’t go by other guidance…I remember we had this exact talk last year during a similar event that their models were a good 15-20 miles too far south with placement of that band…and they did t deviate even while it was ripping up here. It constantly wanted to shift the band south seemingly by the hour. I feel that conservative nature hurts them. 

Do we actually believe that local tv stations have in-house models?  There is no way some broadcast meteorologist is writing code and inputting data that is going to be better than NCEP. It takes millions of dollars and thousands of man hours to build a weather model.  When they say they use in-house models it means they put their stations name on a off run of the hi res NAM.   

Welp, I'm back even though the mods have somewhat soured this forum (for me at least).  That said, I can't miss out on the first truly chaseable event of the year.

2 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

Would normally say bring it but the Pats game showed we’re better off with benign conditions. Need to keep the passing offense rolling! 

Yeah we crumbled in those winds. But I feel like the bills team that played this past Sunday would have won on Monday night.  Not only was there bad weather but we just didn’t play well that night, a pretty ugly game  

I’m also wondering what kind of weather we’ll have for the bills game. These last two games are must wins.  Some of the models show the possibility of interesting weather once again on Sunday behind the front.  Wind? Squalls? 

Merry Christmas all, snowpack got obliterated last night. I’m glad I made some good snow piles. Those are holding strong

1 hour ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

Yeah, that map is definitely wrong, especially here, about 25 miles north of Syracuse, where it's showing 2-3" currently otg. I don't have my glasses on, so I can't see shit, lol! Doesn't there have to be 1" other the morning of Christmas for it to be a White Christmas? If thats the case, I don't think anywhere will verify accept those that live on the Tug and perhaps South of KBUF but IDK about that area.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

That map isn’t what’s on the ground it’s what fell in a 48 hour window, so it’s pretty accurate as there has been a lot of melting already. I’m already down to a soggy 3 inches. 

27 minutes ago, sferic said:

What is the source of this graphic?  Thank you

A ton of fun graphics and knobs to turn on this website. 
https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snowfall/

That’s a lot more people getting a white Christmas than I expected just a few days ago. Is there actually snow on the ground in Buffalo? 
 
snow totals through 12z today

4 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Lol... I once shared a townhouse with a guy who hated snow. When I shoveled the driveway in the morning, I would make nice big piles in shaded areas to "save the snow." I would come home from work to find he broke up the snow piles and shoveled some of the snow BACK on the driveway to melt it in the afternoon sun! Drove me bonkers! Hahaha.... Serious snow battles between the two of us. Lol

I’d be so mad!  I have a huge tree that blocks the sun really well and I usually make a nice pile behind it. Glad to hear I’m not alone in my strategies. 

5 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

Get that snow blower fired up yet?

I think im actually going to shovel so I can consolidate the snow effectively into bigger piles.  I love the snow blower but it’s not conducive for making nice piles.  I’m hoping to see how long I can keep a pile around during these next two weeks of torches. 

You can see the winds really backing on the west end of the lake.  The band should reorient east west before the synoptic overtakes it. 

8 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Lol when I’m driving through it I can lol. I want no part of 2”/hr snow rates on i81

See, this is the type of vitriol we need moderators for!  Haha. But I guess not everyone is nuts like me.  Driving in treacherous snow is one my favorite things in the world. It can’t snow hard enough. 

Just now, tim123 said:

Delta gotta be one of the bigger lake events for you in awhile? You might get to double digits?

Absolutely, and pure lake effect at that. High ratios certainly juiced our numbers but I’m so happy right now haha.  A Christmas miracle. I need to shovel a lot of this into a good pile to see how long I can make it last.