DeltaT13

Here we go

Amherst, geez...they are on the hairy edge of getting zilch (IMO), that is before tomorrow at least. Perhaps later tomorrow or tomorrow night when the next shortwave approaches they might get in the game.. Anyway, that was a bold call.

I don’t think I’m going after this one but that does look enticing. Chasing in the metro and heavily populated areas is my absolute favorite

There will be a strong lake response, I just don't think we can be so sure on the band placement being as far North as we originally anticipated.

I don't love the look of those isobars as that coastal storm is definitely changing the pressure gradient up in our neck of the woods. I still can't really figure out how we will get such a prolonged southwest wind event aside from thermal troughing because of the warm great lakes. This setup definitely does not have the typical hallmarks of a long duration SW wind event. We want a closed mid level low up over Hudson bay and no storm off the East Coast. Could definitely see those bands ending up further South....

The game was great. Honestly one of my favorite games I’ve ever been too. The only fans there seemed to be the true diehards as it had to only be about 70 percent full. The light snow that fell the entire game didn’t amount to anything but gave great ambiance, and they were perfect dendrites at that. No annoying fans from the other team, because well, it was the falcons haha. Just a quintessential Buffalo game, and a clutch win.

I don't usually get hung up on small variations in temps compared to forecasts, but tonight's low in ROC is forecast to be 17, its already 13 at the airport and 10 in my backyard. Radiational cooling for the win, and impressively underestimated by the models.

You are a bit of an enigma with your I love snow but your "I don't care if it lasts" ideology....because then you make statements about how our lack of cold has ruined a lot of outdoor activities around here. Snow duration and cold go hand in hand my man!

Here's hoping. 2-3 inches is usually what we get as the band whiplashes back and forth. During the 12/26 event last year I measured 1.3, but winds were light and inland penetration was not ideal in that setup.

And you dont see a band that deep into Monroe county unless its a hybrid event with an arctic frontal boundary enhancing a lake band. I'm staying conservative in my backyard with 2-3" in the best scenario.

This event seems strongly driven by thermal troughing which I think is a tough wild card to bank on. A secondary 500mb vort max/shortwave does come through on Thursday giving this event somewhat a of a two pronged evolution but I'm not completely sold on this being a blockbuster just yet. Lot of moving parts on this one.

I did, I graduated with his sister.

Do we actually believe that local tv stations have in-house models? There is no way some broadcast meteorologist is writing code and inputting data that is going to be better than NCEP. It takes millions of dollars and thousands of man hours to build a weather model. When they say they use in-house models it means they put their stations name on a off run of the hi res NAM.

Welp, I'm back even though the mods have somewhat soured this forum (for me at least). That said, I can't miss out on the first truly chaseable event of the year.

Yeah we crumbled in those winds. But I feel like the bills team that played this past Sunday would have won on Monday night. Not only was there bad weather but we just didn’t play well that night, a pretty ugly game

I’m also wondering what kind of weather we’ll have for the bills game. These last two games are must wins. Some of the models show the possibility of interesting weather once again on Sunday behind the front. Wind? Squalls?

Merry Christmas all, snowpack got obliterated last night. I’m glad I made some good snow piles. Those are holding strong

That map isn’t what’s on the ground it’s what fell in a 48 hour window, so it’s pretty accurate as there has been a lot of melting already. I’m already down to a soggy 3 inches.

A ton of fun graphics and knobs to turn on this website. https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snowfall/

That’s a lot more people getting a white Christmas than I expected just a few days ago. Is there actually snow on the ground in Buffalo? snow totals through 12z today

I’d be so mad! I have a huge tree that blocks the sun really well and I usually make a nice pile behind it. Glad to hear I’m not alone in my strategies.

I think im actually going to shovel so I can consolidate the snow effectively into bigger piles. I love the snow blower but it’s not conducive for making nice piles. I’m hoping to see how long I can keep a pile around during these next two weeks of torches.

You can see the winds really backing on the west end of the lake. The band should reorient east west before the synoptic overtakes it.

See, this is the type of vitriol we need moderators for! Haha. But I guess not everyone is nuts like me. Driving in treacherous snow is one my favorite things in the world. It can’t snow hard enough.

Absolutely, and pure lake effect at that. High ratios certainly juiced our numbers but I’m so happy right now haha. A Christmas miracle. I need to shovel a lot of this into a good pile to see how long I can make it last.