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SleetStormNJ

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Everything posted by SleetStormNJ

  1. SleetStormNJ
    Significant western lean on the GEFS cluster there.
  2. SleetStormNJ
    Verbatim - wallops some of the areas that kind of got fringed on this storm/gives nice event to ENJ/NE NJ into LI/CT/MASS. Early but QPF estimates on this run about 1.1-1.4 for areas. Quick mover (about 12 hours).
  3. SleetStormNJ
    Whoops - 2009-2010 - that's right. We did well in both those winters too - but DC cashed in big on the Dec '09 and then again in the 1st week of February and even got in on action a bit in the one we finally got hit with a week later.
  4. SleetStormNJ
    Never say never for a couple big ones in single winter/timeframe. North mid-atlantic is kind of overdue for a DC (2010-2011) or Boston (back in mid 2010s (can't remember if 2013-2014 or 2014-15) winter...... February looks promising for a few threats over coming 2-3 weeks.
  5. SleetStormNJ
    Some places in Union County by me already have 16 inches...........We'll easily hit/break over 20".
  6. SleetStormNJ
    Not far from you and easily have 16-17 inches. I think 12-16 more will be tough but can see an easy 6-10 more.
  7. SleetStormNJ
    History in the making.........again. Wow. Heavy Snow, Wind, Visibility close to nil. Kenilworth, NJ. 26 degrees. Approximately 9-10 inches on ground (measurement avg came out to about 9.7-9.8).
  8. SleetStormNJ
    NAM is ridiculous - if it verifies, thats an easy 24-32 jackpot zone for EPA/NC/N-NJ, SNY/HV into portions of NYC/LI and SW CT.
  9. SleetStormNJ
    Going to be some intermittent snow bands in our area throughout until evening. More moderate snow won't come until late overnight/early morning hours tomorrow and then the show really comes during day into afternoon/evening. 20 degrees in Kenilworth, NJ currently. Can feel storm coming (air and can feel it in my bones!)
  10. SleetStormNJ
    I'm impressed with the continued moisture transport/frontogenesis features - somebody is going to get clobbered.
  11. SleetStormNJ
    I will say a lot of our big ones that were Miller Bs tend to have a signature of consistent/longer snow like this. (Corrected - Miller Bs). Remember Jan 2005 as an example for the North Jersey crowd.
  12. SleetStormNJ
    That's got to be a Tony dupe, right?
  13. SleetStormNJ
    Well the NAM appears to be running these days out of his basement, so.....
  14. SleetStormNJ
    Gorgeous. It literally snows in northern NJ like 36 hrs straight.
  15. SleetStormNJ
    He posts under MJO tag now.
  16. SleetStormNJ
    NAM is kind of the only model though that shows the drop in PA and favors later coastal CCB development. Have to watch that into runs of other models and tomorrow’s midday cycles.
  17. SleetStormNJ
    Only Ant trying to hack it over and over again so his call looks conservative.
  18. SleetStormNJ
    I’m too lazy maybe to look officially but wasn’t the Feb 2013 monster that dumped LI and CT a Miller B?
  19. SleetStormNJ
    That’s inferred in my post. I assume most of us are caught up on the Miller classifications. If not, I’ve seen some good Miller Bs for my area in NJ. Dec 2003, Jan 2005, couple last decade of variety in scale, and even fringed on a few that slammed LI late the last decade.
  20. SleetStormNJ
    One thing I have learned with setups like these more so than Miller As is expect to be on edge of seat either way and surprised. Some develop too slowly or have sloppy transfer/development and others just explode.
  21. SleetStormNJ
    Agreed. One commonality that is significant in all the models now is the stronger frontogenesis and moisture transport and thus QPF on the models. Another thing to watch. Getting a feeling some locations in PA are going to get the 30” marker.
  22. SleetStormNJ
    The Euro made significant shifts in that direction too after holding steady days earlier contesting the GFS solution a bit.
  23. SleetStormNJ
    Way too early for people living and dying by model runs folks. This still has a good 2 plus day chunk to evolve. It's like people don't learn from the past and thus repeat this weird self-abusing psychological game.
  24. SleetStormNJ
    Very bullish on this threat. Lots of ingredients are there. Feel confident in at least some kind of storm and significant weather impact. Still time to go and of course the swings people feel with modelology, but the ULL/bowling ball look is promising.
  25. SleetStormNJ
    In our crazy climate, i would bet it gets challenged within the next 10 years and would gamble it gets replaced within 20.
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