Typhoon Tip

Neutral EPO with -PNA, while the annular mode goes from -4 (near historic low) to +3 this week... yeah, that "should" result in a reconstruction of basically everything. We'll see edit, the -PNA aspect is in March .. to be clear. We actually have a rather robust +PNA between the 20th and 28th. May have to contend with one or two more systems in that stretch, that look from longer range like they'll be very good, only to have attribution speed those up and f- 'em all up, too

https://phys.org/news/2025-02-earth-15c-global-limit-major.html

Now it’s mid IP we had S plus for about 45 seconds out of nowhere and now it’s back to sleet

Now it’s mod IP/S mixed

S+ at the moment 26

yeah...this event had a backside isallobaric wind acceleration potential written all over it.. Some that didn't get ice may be greeted with black out by dawn anyway

it's interesting it seems it's been biased SW over interior MA cause we were up to 35, than about hr ago it was 31 out of nowhere. The rain on the car top and windows is webbed now so we're glazing ...won't last much longer but.

We just tucked ... 35 to 30 in the last 20 minutes. Still straight rain but that's probably just because it's too fast and needs a little more time to respond.

It probably will in the night's runs coming up...

+Nobody wants to hear this but ... this could be circa 1987, and we'd be served a contiguous diet of armeggedon solutions until 9 hours before when the AVN pukes out a rat turd solution and everyone ignores it because ... there's all that momentum of course. This is actually showing how far modeling has come in situations like these... 4.5 days in advance

+Nobody wants to hear this but ... this could be circa 1987, and we'd be served a contiguous diet of armeggedon solutions until 9 hours before when the AVN pukes out a rat turd solution and everyone ignores it because ... there's all that momentum of course.

yeah, I don't think I agree with that. This predicament is because of the wave frequencies being transmitting down stream from the from Pacific. The ridge in the west is too flat. The L/W frequency from off the west coast through the continent is low. Y coordinate is shallow compared to the X coordinate, which is stretched. A higher latitude arced ridge in the west, would plumb this N/stream SPV fragment along a deeper solution into the OV - that's what tips the flow up the coast and normalizes that height field in SE Canada. That train wreck is there because these aspects are missing... If there was a greater frequency spanning the medium, it would negatively interfere with those feature N of Maine and the solution would dampen that aspect.

straight rain here. 32 ... looks like on the button, but accretion, despite being into fresh glacier of snow/sleet mix to the tune of 6", isn't happening. glad. phew. Cause when the winds come around after this thing that's a scenario I'm glad won't set up

It's my personal perspective as an observer in this social media ...so taken with a grain of salt, but I suspect part of problem with the grousing psychobabble bs, isn't really the winter appeal out of doors. It's the bad model cinema experience. It's a separate experience phenomenon to the actual appeal out the window. If these storm chances/bombs had better modeled cinema continuity ( and thus, bulk d-drip dosings LOL ) over the longer duration of this colder Jan/Feb), people's opinion of this winter would be much better. No question. We get these big signals and then failing to actually engage in model consumption with objectivity and constraint, the user risks inevitable yanking out of their high. The rug gets pulled out because the flow keeps correcting faster moving late mid into nearer terms - the predisposition of the basal circumstance...etc. It's like a constantly emerging neg offsets as a negative interference. But failing to constrain oneself ... if they were mindfully constrained by limitations ahead of the fact, they wouldn't get so giddy by the model run at hand. The let down quotient is ameliorated that way. Not many are that rational in their approach in here, if/when they engage with the intent of seeking that arousal first... It is what it is... When there is a 4" of white on the ground, you can't tell the difference if it's 40" of white on the ground. Both fields look totally white. It's not about the physical setting. The appeal has to be journey

just about 6" of 90% snow/ 10% sleet. Since then we've been ZR/IP mixed with pixie flakes along side. The plows are not down our side streets just yet, and it's laborious removal due to the sleet mixture and dense water content. This fairly breached a low end warning result here. IP/ZR/S- 24

Not to troll this thread and/or nut punch winter enthusiasts.. but is meant as an honest and genuinely intended effort. Warm 'bursting' synoptics has on the horizon coherent precedence. This is due to some converging reasons, some of which a few have trouble even discussing.. while others of the objective reality bent don't feel they need to actually bend over to accept as very real. 1 .. The temperature anomaly distribution in January, and I suspect in Feb from what I've been poking around and seeing thus far ... show that the cold sensible/empirical results over mid latitude N/A have been very local compared to the whole planet. I'm not going to bother digging up the graphic again... Point being, we've obviously been chanced factorization in a favorable spot, and I suspect it is quite enabling due to its persistence. We lose the one factor, and things can and most likely will turn around with air of rapidity... That factor was the NE Pacific proxy for some 7 weeks downstream over N/A ( -EPO load reloading pattern). 2 .. La Nina winters have a precedence for warm springs, anyway... 3 .. attribution - These can both be disparate aspects, or in situ related. The point here is, that is our background. Not what we see out the window. By the way, the 06z operational GFS brought 564 dm hydrostatic heights as far N up the EC as CON, NH, with 582 non-hydrostats as high up as NYC. Granted ... it's Mar 3, not exactly a beacon of confidence... LOL. However, given said spread, ... warm operational solutions will probably begin materializing in the extended, along with a markedly different synoptic landscape implied, while we are negotiating these threats over the next 10 days.

... not that my opinion is worth a shit .. .but, there's time for this to come back as an albeit more progressive climate coastal version, for along and SE of a Del Marva - SE of White Plains to S NH. Just may not be giant. Obviously don't have to tell you, just sayn' Grousing and sense of loss as to the slow moving 968 mb juggernauts, aside, the N/stream in this potential phase ordeal appears to be stable to within 10 .. 20% all along. I suspect there is a tendency to focus there, and seeing the low becomes flatter and weaker in the last 24 hours, ... folks aren't correcting for much else? But, it's not really the N/stream aspects that is the problem from what I'm seeing. The S/W ejected out of eastern Pacific decided to wack some power off the wave space in these recent runs. If the S/Stream were stronger, that would help entice the N/Stream subsume mechanics to trigger sooner due to dynamic height fall/feed-backs...etc etc. The relay noses in or begins to at during these runs going forward. Particularly tonight.. It may be worth it to monitor the mechanics as they are relaying into the more physically realized sounding domain.

500mb looks better on the GFS fwiw not sure about the sfc but the n/stream’s more consolidated with potent DPVA Too soon to bail on this. It’s close to being significant

So it looks like KBOX expanded the warning south?

EPS trended E by some 100 mi. Also shrank the spread a little while jumping in intensity, too yeah yeah D5.5 but that's cautionary There are objective arguments to go lower: - Flow's a little less compressed, granted ... but is still not reflected in the S/W translation speed (the speed in which the entire wave structure propagates thru the medium ). - That is likely related to the lack of western ridge construct to improve the frequency of the L/W. That is the background by which the S/W would be conducted to a slower more curved trajectory. That would enhance phasing, sooner... The 12z Euro is ripping the whole bag open - forget the sfc evolution, folks. Watch the 500 mb. You can see the stressed interaction with the S/stream partially absorbed then ripping out down wind and busting up the raviolli. The previous Euro runs were not doing this, which may have been suspicious. I don't know. The ICON/UKMET are improved ... not sure with their performance record if that's helping. That all said, just a little slowing would bring the Euro's prior idea back to the table.

Me old standard NAM FOUS from 18z was tick colder. The triangulation method implied 5 or 6" of snow along Rt 2 west of 95 on on out, then a mix of IP and ZR to some .3" accretion before ending, but could be higher ice if less IP

That's been my metric all along. This is far superior as a winter to me, than any since few years back. Continuous snow pack to me doesn't raise or lowered any significance to it, just because it isn't deep. Now... if we want to get into the affects of having left a lot on the table - that's an expansion into an intangible that ... meh, just doesn't bother me personally. The chances were real. We had real chances.. we've had continuous snow pack because of them now onto 5 weeks. I have contiguous white in all directions bermed off by snow banks for a long while now; yet keep reading how bad it all is and I'm sorta not really agreeing there.

So the 162 hr is ominous ... I rarely use that adjective as I hate the hyperbole grabbing when describing this stuff, but having members be as low as the upper 950s west of the BM, look at it this way. there was poorer phasing on previous cycles, when the spread was less. Now that we have better phasing at least suggested as possible, if not quite possible, we see the western spread balloon further out with some exceptionally deep members. I don't believe the two aspects are divorced in this. So, the implication of a 965 mb low W of the BM, ( averaging 957 to 972) would be a tree leaning white out over eastern SE NH/E MA and RI

In fact... that is a rather large spread uncertainty there. There's over 20 members along the W-NW arc...It's almost puzzling why the mean PP is situated as far out there as it is given all that tension.

00z 168 vs 12z 156, left to right respectively ...