Typhoon Tip

Beyond this weekend .. what we got? The CPC's enhanced probability for above normal temperatures. Just a primer (again..) on how to use this product: the intensity of red colorization does not mean higher scalar temperature. Orange hues progressing to red means greater and greater probability of above normal temperature in that order. In other words, this product says nothing of the magnitude of above normal. If the days turned out +0.01 ..this product was successful. Very high probability of above normal with that deep insidious dried scab over NM for example, means that there is a very high probability, based upon whatever methods CPC uses to assess, that the time range will average between 0 and Nth degrees above normal. This all conceptually true at the other side for BN, obviously. Having said all that, yeah...there some semblance of trend in the operational longer range means to roll another warm interlude out of the west. That observation matches timing with the day 8-14 from the same source above as a progression timing. The teleconnector numerical fields are positive-nominal ( AN but not +AN). SO ....there's likeliness for AN from all this blended info but nothing that smacks as exceptional at this time. It's important and obvious to note that telecons and these spatial synoptic layouts, et al, are more stochastic in summer, which doesn't lend to predictive skill.

I, for perhaps one, am psyched for this impending rain. Well timed, while also well needed. Just commencing here... showery and vaguely convective N of the more obvious downpours sliding up ENE out of CT ...ranging to strata rains over Upstate NY and CNE. This is occurring through 13z tomorrow morning, and then the moisture fields/sigmas make it appear as though we actually fracture the ceilings and sun wins out over the course of the afternoon hours, NW-SE, tomorrow. It's a work day and night ... this is when we ...or I, prefer it. Wouldn't mind a solid 3" soaker but as me grandmammy always used to say, 'beggars can't be choosers'. Saturday still projects to be the very best weather in terms of subjective consensus, this summer ...or any summer, can provide on Earth. If you want something better... I don't know, go to "Pandora" or something I guess. It's like regional mean of 78/50, under the last days of solar max irradiance, thru 100 mi type visibility air moved around by caressing zephyrs. Altho..hm, not sure of Michigan smoke but cross that bridge.. . Sunday looks pretty much the same, too. Jeez

I, for perhaps one, am psyched for this impending rain. Well timed, while also well needed. Just commencing here... showery and vaguely convective N of the more obvious downpours sliding up ENE out of CT ...ranging to strata rains over Upstate NY and CNE. This is occurring through 13z tomorrow morning, and then the moisture fields/sigmas make it appear as though we actually fracture the ceilings and sun wins out over the course of the afternoon hours, NW-SE, tomorrow. It's a work day and night ... this is when we ...or I, prefer it. Wouldn't mind a solid 3" soaker but as me grandmammy always used to say, 'beggars can't be choosers'. Saturday still projects to be the very best weather in terms of subjective consensus, this summer ...or any summer, can provide on Earth. If you want something better... I don't know, go to "Pandora" or something I guess. It's like regional mean of 78/50, under the last days of solar max irradiance, with 100 mi type visibility air - altho..hm, not sure of Michigan smoke but cross that bridge.. . Sunday looks pretty much the same, too. Jeez

so there ...

yeah i was pretty sure it was that late june one just curious. actually got to wondering how often it is to get 1k high orh to do that just in general - as in return rate.

Orh back to back days 90 or better. last time that happen ?

This is basically what it’ll be doing here tomorrow night Reflectivity

lot of 96 and 97 around again this afternoon. Won't make 100 but damn this is still hot and are still Big Heat numbers

Yeah that consensus is more of a strata layout deal N of the Pike from what I'm seeing and knowing how these modeled synoptic scenarios tend to go. There's likely to be some bumpy clumps on the satellite training along southern zones for a time, but the whole axis is settling SE. Seems Friday may correct toward breaking cloud in the afternoon, because the subtle but crucial small tendency to flatten the whole thing means that it is also slightly accelerating almost unnoticed as well. Saturday may be up there among the best quality days this summer's had to offer -

late to the party today but it may also be a shifted to far south for that, too

MHT 100R BOS 99R PVD 97R CON 97R BDL 96TR

Oh yeah, those east west running roads down here like Route 2 or the Pike and Route 9 in Framingham they absolutely broil even at 70 mph they’re sometimes 5 abv NWS

I'm a little leery of the cooler August ideas ... I see the cool-down as being typically oversold by longer range models. Something more seasonal/average, then fading into Act III .... then we "break back" Friday rain not included - It's just my personal sense of where this is going. Those pesky non-linear aspects ( trend and trend' ) keep trying to lower heights in the Pac NW as kind of rest state and every time we deflate the eastern ridge, that tends to force it back. So right now the linear structures happen to look autumnal but I'd like to wait that out and see

mine was flopping 101 ... 100

yesterday's mid 90s followed by a 95-100 today, and probably at least low 90s tomorrow ... this is a pretty damn potent heat wave. 2nd place on the season.

actually the GFS nailed this from 2 or 3 days ago. I brought it up/posted that the model was roasting on one of those runs - but i haven't paid attention since.

KEWR 100

KFIT 99

KBOS might have touched 99

You're gonna need to wait a lot longer

there it is! 90 at ORH. it's real now ha

Big Heat verifies at FIT ...and at local sites around Ayer. 97 and mean of 96 respectively as of 1:20

it's fake until ORH ping's 90 heh

Mm the signal performed ... it just didn't extend as far as it could have, given those indicators as they appeared at the beginning of the month. There's multiple sources available on the web for cumulative means, but this blw is from the PRISM group/Oregon State U. It shows through the 28th where the anomalies, relative to normal climatology, have amassed over the last 4 weeks. This is impressive enough ... given this is a month's worth of aggregated data. There were probably individual days per the course that were greater, as there were days lower than this mean anomaly. It's going to be tough to put up mean anomalies that extend much above +5 in July, compared to say ...March, because July is a perennial climate ceiling in the temperature curve. It is more constrained by broader systemic limitations at the higher side.

Should be put on the mileXmile sized headstone over humanity's grave ... along with all the other dark ironies that fucking made it happen