Typhoon Tip

Heh I wonder if we could actually put up a 90 that late in the year

dry summers and autumns show some correlation to ensuing winter temperatures - colder not sure about 2026, though ... such is so during prior/older climate generation

better

est ... 'deepEST' does better there lol

it's the NAM so ... it's skimpier on QPF areal coverage and amounts than other guidance. there's an old saying that dry begets dry ... heh, NAM and a saying, vs all other models

random thought once the clouds claim the sky later in the day ... wondering if the sun will not be seen again until Saturday.

sun is sloped and tepid, getting more sloped and cooler ... soon 60+ dps will only make the side streets sweat - nothing else of consequence. the reason is because the sun doesn't dump in enough energy to keep both a higher dp air mass afloat, while also providing enough energy to simultaneously elevate the kinetic temperature. granted this is all more so the environmental limitation (at this latitude) by mid oct+ ... but is already more challenging.

heh i’d be a little bit leery of using that comparison because there’s clearly a resolution change there I.e., the bottom panel has perhaps multiple factors of greater sampling density… suggestive by the granularity

You know ... there's another way. Change the incentive model. If it becomes profitable to go green, problem solved.

Just my opinion but this air mass arrival's the shot across the bow - symbolic hearkening that the next might be more discerned. Probably we recover with at least tepid warmth later next week ... normal after these first 'smells like autumn' marginal froster deals - less marginal across NNE of course.. It's also ( as an aside...) like a 'sub-continental tuck' air mass. It's not really continental in scale. It is just a transient short duration cool shot curling an autumn air mass sneakily through Quebec. Buffalo has no idea it's happening - straight N shot for 24 hours. Altho it may try to cheat radiate one more night before it rolls out. The more canonical sab air mass looks more PNA-ish. It's almost just a reflection of how our geodesic circumstance sucks cold into this specific region ha

OH, well yeah... We're actually saying the same thing. I suspect it takes like a +3 sigma warm ENSO to finally tastes more than pepperRONIs enough to finally flavor the pizza of winters. haha... sorry about the dad joke. By the way ... you and I first started speaking ( in concept ) about RONI back in like 2009 - not sure you recall but that science isn't very novel at least to me. In fact, I remember back in 2004 having a discussion similar to compression/speed surplus with a fellow college alum. Anyway, point really being that I think when concepts emerge in multiple realms and are the same, that tends to be closer ( at least 'closer' ) to universally useful. Kinda of like fire was discovered all over the world at the same time 10s of thousands of years faster than word could have traveled about how to control it.

I'm aware of that but .. I don't believe they have that right. The ENSO and the La Nina apparent fingerprint is coincidental in that sense - not being forced by the ENSO state/thermal distribution as it terminates into the westerlies. It just so happens to be that in the absence of either, there is a feeble ONI that encourages upwelling over the eastern Pac but it doesn't really reflect a La Nina. Makes it exceedingly difficult to parse the two apart, sure.. because the expanding HC and the break down of that device/organized circulation machinery, lends to a residual SS stressing that orients E --> W In other words, the correlation is too linear.

that's probably going to be a pretty good radiational cooling/frost result Saturday night.. probably all the way down here in interior SNE, too

ENSO isn't truly neutral ... it's more like quasi negative, fw little iw ... biased in regions < 3.4. The problem is, regardless of that, the surrounding atmosphere is so expanded beyond there's no geophysical triggers to force a pattern evolution because of that. It's like a chick moving around inside an eggshell - the outside world doesn't know that is happening. That won't ( likely...) characterize the winter ahead, of course. But for the time being, the intraseasonal variance may see wondering into a quasi positive or negative ( probably favoring the latter this time...), and it won't mean a darn thing to the hemisphere. Not until the seasonal compression of the hemisphere quickens the geopotential height medium --> increasing basal winds, and that's when the planetary wave tendencies/feedbacks are forced/exposed. In fact, this may transitively then feedback and force a more coherent tendency with the ENSO, one way or the other ... Anyway, that's probably ... I dunno, later October+ but more so by Thanks Giggedy. And that may not really turn out to be the winter hemisphere. Some > 50% of the time, yes, there is some vestigial usefulness in identifying - usually through - the nonlinear observations of "lurking" tendencies during those early seasonal flavors... It's your chance to be artful.. The other aspect - as I wonder into a seasonal outlook tendency I did not mean to ... - is that it's been papered by other sources that jet meanders are becoming more common, particularly during the shoulder seasons. It's why I suspect that we may observe some blocking tendencies in the AO(WPO/EPO/NAO) between the late Oct - Xmas time.. But I grow increasingly confident with each passing year that the winter hemisphere might be forever changed - it seems regardless of all leading indicator methods, we seem to wend our way into a version of: This may obliterate, however ...as the machinery of deep winter takes over with its (probable) repeat performance of > normal gradient everywhere and basal flow velocities hurried along, that disturbs resonance feedbacks and patterns have difficulties establishing... That means we may have problem locking in either cold or warm, in lieu rapid variance ( relatively...). 10 day winter pops followed by 53 F streaks kind of thing. That's also sloppy description of the last several winters, frankly, which seem to have become a leitmotif.

Is there a way to actually do that? I've always just done it the hard way, but ultimately gave up when the thread's hundos pages deep...

Yet ... AC only adds more to the anthropomorphic forcing integral, too. Humanity needs to accept an opposition to using fossil fuels to power the grid, being far more apropos. CC worsening will incur increased frequency of those types of predicaments, like the AC catch-22. It may seem like just a pie slice in the total anthropomorphic forcing but situations like that will get more common. Obviously ... not a novel assertion to suspect that, just sayn' Expediency to solve local/regional imminent threat to health and safety forces taking measures within those realms to stop the death, now. And yet ...as those measures provide immediate protection they only augment the why-for crisis is at hand in the first place. It's just laughable to know what the solution really should be, while humanity divisively obfuscates from seeing it ... Instead, application of all these duct tape on a leaking dam strategies that evade the real problem. I keep coming across all these articles featuring these technological discoveries on how to combat x-y-z and I'm like ...Jesus. If you're nauseated by the potion, just stop fucking drinking the potion. It all comes back to what Don and I were ruminating over a couple of weeks ago ... the insidious nature of "hiding" CC from common experience. It has to appeal directly to the natural senses before the awareness moves from intellectualism and debate to a state of prevalence. It's just the evolutionary biology of all organisms, their impulse response to crisis is slaved to that system. The human species is no different... The difference here is that we are just beginning to see CC finally appealing ... but it will probably take some time to wake up the species awareness fully enough. A time in which we'll see these follies.

https://phys.org/news/2025-09-climate-deaths-europe-summer.html

word. thanks. not really much of a cfs user but ... I'd have thought that'd be more first half tendency

What are we looking at here? (there's no headers on this image -) anyway, this also reflects higher latitude blocking.

heh, imagine if this solution turned out warm biased, huh

Boil them frogs, boy

If this indeed turns out to be this year's nadir, I find that interesting - it'd be the earliest of all recent seasons, regardless of magnitudes, whence the nadir took place

As a Meteorologist with a turbo-dork cape, I can tell you that QRA is occurring at all spatial-temporal scales. Not just seasonal - I realize you're not suggestion so ... but I just think it is important to make the distinction. Individual stalled thunderstorm that dumps 10" of rain in a single afternoon is a harmonic/constructive interference event, at very small scale. The Pacific NW historic heat burst was a 10 .. 2 wk aspect in 2021, at perhaps intermediate. China, above, is more seasonal in scale involving a continent (altho I suspect the seasonal duration is an aggregate of intermediates in repetition, interruption by transient linear destructive interference suppressing the planetary scaled harmonics ... gets complex in a hurry) I believe it is important to understand that resonant feed-back is a phenomenon that should not be defined by lengths of existence. Its occurrence needs to be 'on the radar' (sorry for that pun) as a possible out of the blue general threat awareness. Synergistic emergence as a phenomenon is less constrained by spatial dimension - although smaller scaled ones do appear to have shorter ramp up times than those that affect at continental scales. This fits both the early climate-modeled warnings of a wide variance future, one that has also become objectively observed, too. As an aside ... I suspect there may be late October through mid December winter or quasi-winter loading patterns across N/A ( the severity and/or lengths of which are impossible to determine in seasonal predictions - just to be weary of them) Those would not necessarily go on to characterize the entire winter season ( DJF ). We can actually see this when objectively looking back at the last 20 years of climatology, too. Some of this idea is footed in recurrent observation of them, both objectively and subjectively increasing in frequency spanning climate recency. These so called 'cold meanders', some half the OND's since 2000 have hosted either snow or snow supporting synoptic, whence the ensuing (DJF) went on to banality. The latter because the hemispheric gradient in these latter months become compressed, speed up the goestrophic flow everywhere requires coherent emergence of more planetary scaled waves, a latter property emergence that can be entirely new compared to whatever has been occurring during the latter autumn and earlier winters.

There's a strangeness about the local hemisphere ( along 30 N from west of California, east to the Sargasso Sea/N. Atl Basin ) where the ridges are perforated by all these pinch mid/u/a/ lows and/or TUTTs and such. That circumstance hugely limits the likeliness than any MDR TC would firstly be able to survive the increased shear quotient in the means. Also, another likeliness killer is that steering fields are not west-->east along extended distances because these punched holes in the ridge offer too many more opportunities that encourage capture into early retirements. (hint, I know why that overall circumstance is happening, but the CC explanation rubs those that swear by not denying while denying any evidence that connecs to CC ... CC is real so long as it doesn't interfere with the prospect of d-drip potency, huh )