Typhoon Tip

More a social commentary here ... First of all ... no one should take advice off anyone from a social media source. To point out the obvious, it's no different than subjecting one's self to bus-stop factoids among strangers. Unless one really really knows that source. Like really knows, not because they think they know, but really do. In which case, your proooobably not reading their advice off a social media realm in the first place. hahaha No but what you can do, if you hear or read something that sounds cogent, use that as a step stone in research to go look the shit up yourself and see if its real. This latter tact seldom appears to concern those that frequent this source - that's sort of what I mean by not taking it seriously. Or maybe it is just lazy. Maybe it is just capacity to understand. Maybe compos mentis... Who knows for certain. Being the cynic that I am (perhaps even recreationally LOL) I think it's because people don't want to admit when one person or source is right - particularly ( in here..) when that right sounding advice or observation or whatever tact, cancels their joy. Folks are not in here ( probably neglecting what they're supposed to be doing, much of the time - ) to engage so much in objective lucidity.

I've personally found that those Feb and Mar and even Apr early big heat bombs that took place since 2016 with interestingly increased frequency (a separate climate discussion), seemed to be prologue to a negative NAO over the western limb of the index. Random memory while on the subject... This also took place in October of 2011, with a mid month 4-day static period of 75ish afternoons, even crispy CU towers sometimes on the sunset horizons. Then, in the 20+s of that month, the the western NAO plummets. Few might remember, but we actually flipped to noodles about 3 or 4 days prior to that big late month 'Halloween snow storm' one late afternoon. An innocuous event to serve as warning. But it was all part of that same circuitry getting going. Anyway, point being ... there may be something to that statistically, where warm ups that are above a SD threshold might just correlate rather highly, as a prelude, to a period of higher latitude blocking. Like think of it as a total event that is warm presaging high latitude block in a kind of super synoptic sequence.

It's a warm index period, yet the dailies/oper model cinemas are low balling on that potential. The main reason this takes place is to annoy me... Winter enthusiasts don't realize what is happening, they just assume the world is the way it should be. I'm neurotic about that. LOL. I don't like it when the idiosyncratic vagaries of wind and weather patterns placate and even enable one side, in general - cold or hot. But the reality is that index modes just mean favored regimes. It's a matter of how much or how little. There is variance within those regimes. Anyway, here on Earth... in this case, the pattern is acting like a -NAO without actually having a block. One does eventually formulate up there - as usual, inconsistently in both time and space by the guidance'. But these systems running along a pinned polar boundary late next week ( it's a mixy storm signal that's been there for several days actually...), are acting like the block is there whether it is actually manifested or not. That behavior is the non-linearity of forcing. In wave mechanics, fields interact in both linear and non-linearity. The linear is what you see; the non-linear dictates where waves amplify verse damp out, emerge and decay. That's what exposes the non-linear field Another way to think of the non-linear relationship, the PNA in fact is positively correlated to the NAO. SO, -PNA statistically wants to manifest a -NAO... it seems the physics of the models are exposing that relationship, whether it shows up in the linear structures (those that are readily observed).

I'd take that over 24/5 just because it's nicer feeling and living in that... pretty simple. lol

Ineedaninternetcoach is like a happy face troll

I don't disagree here in principle ... but the limitation and problems causing belated response, it's all even simpler than this. It's that people don't step out of the way of warnings... The step out of the way of what is causing them pain. It's biological, alright. May as well throw some irony in there, too. Biology is limiting human response from actually adjusting to the calculus they are capable of making. Such that people deny because they can ... They don't and won't be forced to do anything, unless it hurts. It's that simple. If that sounds really, really stupid? Your right. We are a flawed species. Period. "To err is human", but if we're not careful? no one left to forgive. If CC appealed to any of the 5 senses (and I'd even take the spectrum between emotion to the 6th sense in that manifold of everyday experiences) there would be no debate. Little furthering muse... When the waves of population correction ( to put it nicely) begin to sweep over civilizations... there may even be attempts at blaming it on something else. Because even as it's killing, CC moves so slow compared to the every day experience; the 90% Idiocrasy will still not believe it is so. They'll still fail to connect their shortcomings and observations to cause. I've drafted out this analogy, years ago in this climate sub forum somewhere.. I still think of it. This hearkens to the story of Noah in some ways - I am absolutely not religious, and am not attempting to take this down into that lunacy. But it is still interesting, as the planet warms... and the masses continue to ignore, if not heckle it as a background problem of lesser import, the oceans will rise. Only creeping at first. I'm taking a little sc-fi doom prophecy dystopian license here, fine. However, fact of the matter is, yeah ...the oceans are rising because of CC. Species are perishing. Human adaptiveness will proverbially doggy paddle, but like other people do ...when drowning is on the line, they'll take another man down with them to save themselves. That ending there becomes a metaphor for wars. I guess we're powerless to stop the elegantly obtuse folly of the human finale, so may as well sit back and popcorn and cook the show. Maybe when the aliens happen by this planet in a 1,000 years, they'll see all these monuments to our past - hopefully they'll find, and learn to decode the language of Percy Shelly, "Ozymandias"

It's in the air. When the breeze flattens out in those moments out there leaving that unabated sun un-harrassed there's a nape quality to that. Meanwhile, rivulets it in the gutters. It's trying I'm noticing the the PV is dislodged to the Canadian archipelago side of the NP. So long as that's the case, it's likely to limit how much we recover from that two to three week BN span we just passed through. It's compressing the heights into southern Canada which is a confluence headachy look. Warm fronts might penetrate to Toronto on D8 charts, but we know better. Ha... maybe if we're lucky ... this will be the worst it can be for both sides! yay. No more winter of value. Not warm enough to d-drip the spring enthusiasts. Actually said look might make some nickle dime mixy deals come to pass. So, right now it favors the winter geese in the early gallop polls.

heh... I meant Climate Change ... bored and hoping to start a fight

You know how fresh powdery snow is sometimes referred to Champaign? When at this time of year sun shines on the snow pack and it shards back like that, that should be referred to as "Chardonnay"

CC helping there more so than in CT ?

This is all great info ... I'll just add that it is annoying at time to wonder if the general zeitgeist of denialism hasn't been enabled. If you look at this site, https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/ and cursory start going back month after month ... large numbers of them emerge that feature a region of cooler anomaly, either occurring right smack in the midst of one of human society's greatest contributing Industrial anuses ... or, near enough by to wonder if the sensibility was touched. We are not registering the big heat of CC like other places. We've had some memorable heat waves...yeah. But they've been rarer comparative to frequencies elsewhere. Our low temperatures are in particular, more notable in that regards spanning much of the GL/OV/MA/NE/SE Canadian region. That's obviously and intuitively related to WV increases ... but given the perennial circulation modal constraints, as the Pac flow moves across North America's topography, our experience is preordained. Well fuck if I can't make my point... I just happened to check and NASA just finished tabulating the January numbers and there it is again. The festering cold holes collocated with policy making-villes of the world ...and on and on and on we go - I just wonder/feel at times if what is needed is not having these blind the Idiocrasy from sensing the reality. Because this bias might be doping the minds of the general civility. Otherwise, maybe human kind will register the direly needed renaissance in their thinking about this issue

There is actually an ice signal next Thur + ... risk it's tricky how that boundary/where it sets up. Either mean is plausible

That window roughly 180 through 216 hours has huge sensible wx variance risk. GEFs = 60 at some point thru that EPS = ice storm ...at least per 00z means...

Heh Yeah, severe around here. It is an aspect we can do. Just per climo and common experience, it's not as often observed. We all know this... still good to set up expectations ( that'll be ignored the first hash outta SPC the sets up in early May ...) We do just about everything else there is in the spectrum of weather impacts, much easier. Although, big heat is debatable. As an aside, big heat around here is weighted down by an amalgamated pall-blue sky of continental bio-mist, confluent DP sources, and industrial fart ozones. It's amazing we don't have elevated cancer statistics compared to everywhere else, being that this region is akin to the atmosphere's colorectal exit canal for the continent. But as far as sending temperatures very high... in the many years I've lived through summers in SNE, there's always always ...100% of the time, something holding it down some 1 to 5. When dealing with the big numbers in deterministic weather forecasting, ...maybe this has happened and I just don't recall, but I know it is rare to see high predicted to be 100 (in the first place), and have it end up 105... That happens in Iowa, our same latitude, far more often than here. But we'll put up boat loads of 98s. Meh, that has to count as big heat.

Wish folks had more respect for the index methodology - it's correct the vast majority of times...not sure why or if there is reticence to either understand it, or implement ... but Monday was never signaled from that source and I painstakingly applied that logic and analytic content to the discussion over the last week... It's also this group frankly. In the face of presumptive/prohibitive limitation that is there, in place, the model run at hand that defies those mitigations with some cinema gets immediately pimped out. Meanwhile the situation was never changed.. Oh well.

heh... anyone and everyone east of the Hudson suffers this godforsaken spring region. sorry - no special treatment of empathy conferred.

"If I can just get Will to agree with the model that ups the d-drip dosage - "

amazing how warm that's on the brink of being, too. the unabashed 7 0 if that mean p-boundary aligns 100 mi NW

heh... 0-4 so far on that post by Kev

Well... obviously at 200+ hours none of this has much value but just for muse, you have the GFS backing a blue cling-snow bomb into a grid failed eastern NE, while the Euro's pushing up premature daisy shoots at that same time.

ding ding ding! 'what does he win, Johnny!' Now... one could have read my three paragraph physical dissertation on synoptic NVA's damping effects down at the short wave PVA scale as it was written probably three different ways over the last three days OR, 'had almost no chance' would have equally sufficed -

the problem is ... he and others like him just lampooned the GFS last week with pretty much the exact same sentence LOL I mean, any model too ugly to tongue bathe the balls of horny storm visions is on the #MeToo list with these people

I've mastered the ability as I've aged, to compartmentalize druthers aside from the objective ( or attempts at being so...) analytic stuff. I can to a very close tolerance, be as realistic about a blue bomb or blizzard or whatever at this time of year moving forward, while at the same time ... admitting that I'd rather it be 80 F and the earliest spring/warm season in history ... And the upshot of the latter dream is that it's two-pronged rewarding - should it ever come to pass: on one hand, masturbatory beautiful days to get out and bike ride... disc golf ..regular golf ... woman with less clothing.. you know, all the recreation sports. While on the other hand, watching denialism squirm. Priceless. The ear song explanations as to why it's something they have actually zero education for formulating an excuse for is just deliciously entertaining LOL

It's 38 ... warmest it's been since ...Jan 22 maybe? anyway, I'd like to see less clouds. Brilliant sun suddenly no sun will cap things. haven't seen satellite ..okay, looks like sun destructive pancake advanced in. maybe it cycles out...we'll see

Not a bad approach. It's probably a very easy metaphor but is still useful: can't paint without a canvas