Typhoon Tip

was going to comment on this... yup All major ens-derived, sweeping numerical index changes. Well represented in the spatial depictions, too. A significant overhaul of the hemispheric foot pattern mode. Not sure if that represents the end of summer but ...considering D10 enters the last week of August... modulate for climatology accordingly.

Boy that 00z GFS was an inferno run out there... 06z backed off. There could be a legit (last?) signal after the 20th for some heat but it needs some work. won't get into what that is because no one will read it but 50/50

If the ridge ends up more defined than current guidance vision creating a weakness to draw it N ... a weaker formed Erin could then get left behind - it's lower probability for the time being, but not impossible.

it's not just 'stable' air. There is SAL, and SAL is a micro-physical inhibitor. There can be an unstable sounding ...having lapse rates and so forth. But SAL particles create an over proficient condensation process onto particulate (nano dust) surfaces. Think of it like an 'atmospheric sponge' soaking up the water prior to cloud genesis. Sort of a cartoon metaphor lol. Dry air is another aspect. The tropical instability requires more than just lapse rates for TC engine. WV> 25C wet bulb needs to be maintained.

It would be interesting to compare the interior of Antarctic's atmospheric chemistry/constituencies, against the regions outside during strong +AAO circulation modes persisting.

And actually ... it further elucidates my point when observing that during that same span of time, the N. Hemisphere is much closer to 2023 and 2024. ...So that strikes me pretty hard at this point that including the Antarctic peregrinations is casting an allusion to cooler world. Obviously, the Antarctic is part of this world - but the principle idea is that it's uniquely secluded due to its total geophysical circumstance doesn't reflect what is available to take place anywhere else. It's a 'weighting' concern.

Not attempting any acclaim to shame vs fame, either way, but using the Climate Reanalyzer, there appears to be a correlation between the Antarctic vs the rest of the Globe. There were significant downward spikes spanning some 3 to 5 days in the ongoing registry of the Antarctic daily temperatures, ~ July 5 and again July 25, then very recently ( see blw). Then looking over the curve of the entire planet during those same periods gives a coherent impression that the two curves are moving together in time. I think the Antarctic, having unique geologic circumstance that effectively closes it off from the rest of the world ... particularly during the +annular modes whence the PV is > median strength, ... it draws me to question using that to "weight" the world down. The Antarctic can circumstantially "protect" it's cold during +AAOs, which we can see here ... we've spent the ballast of the last 2.5 months in that circulation mode, My 'numerical suspicion' is that this is more of an artifact that looks like global cooling, holding the entirety of world averages down. The problem with that is geophysical. The Antarctics uniqueness tends to isolate it during these stronger positive excursions; I think that should be considered when assessing a whole planet that does not share in the unique geophysical capacity the Antarctic has for lesser homogeny with the surrounding world, during episodic circulation seclusion. I'm saying - in part - that a cooler 2025 ...mm I'm not sure that's really what's going on, when we're merely dealing in aberrant positive annular modes of the AAO. When/if the AAO goes negative, we may find that the total global temperature rebounds.

https://phys.org/news/2025-08-europe-millions.html

I was thinking about the 'counting eggs before they hatch, wah wah wahhh' phenomenon this morning. consternation and quibbling over who/what/where gets their TC and there isn't one. hiding in modeling virtual realm. Right now 'Erin' carving its way through a nasty dry and probably SAL contaminated space and it's got a ways to go. ...As already noted by NHC, this toxic air is likely being ingested.

Those cicada/'saw bugs' are out there deforesting already and it's not even 9am... Heh, it 'sounds' like a hot day is in the mail.

Like was said 8 days ago or whenever it was. Nothing's changed since, unfortunately, for TC enthusiasm. Unless there is a west oriented -D(NAO),whilst a semi-persistent trough positioned/repositions along 90W, any outlook for bringing TCs up along the EC is not well-enough correlated using climatology. Any depiction at D8+ ( go wonder...) is more likely based on model 'beta-drift', a force that emerges by a complex interaction that is too esoteric to get into but it pulls systems toward the NW. Most of the time, the other forces are strong enough that the beta scaling doesn't get noticed, but at long ranges in the guidance... the resolution for those is lost and that leaves beta as proxy over cyclone motion. So you get wonky aspects like a TC tunneling through a ridge with no steering fields. In other words, ...not likely to happen. Doesn't stop the slew of posts in here warning civility of impending doom [place eye rolling emoji here], no but hey. Nothing wrong with living in the realm of model fantasies. People need their distractions. So long as it's kept separate. I suppose what annoys others is when it's apparently not kept separate. Some don't know any better but have access to the tech. This is where society gets delicious.. the phenomenon of bulk density populace having access to information. Uh oh.. digression formulating. Information is like gasoline. Highly volatile substance that has explosive capacity. Normally, it is fed in careful predetermined doses to a machine that converts that potential energy to turn its gears..etc. But, the modern man ... several generations deep after the Industrial Revolution, has dumbed down to dangerously detached and increasingly dysfunctional machinery in the head (deferential and differential objective analytic intelligence, but we won't go there for now). So the dosing of information vastly surpasses what thee machine can really consume ... So what is left? a ton of volatility and explosions ( these are metaphors, btw - ) taking place. One such explosion: We've gotten the U.S. into a state of teetering social order. Floating a proverbial lit match under the Constitution by voter mentality-machinery that not just prefers fake news and appeasing information over reality, but has tons of access to enormous fuel with no constraints on dosing.

yeah, seems like a rt 2 north day ...

Interesting seeing BOS be 90 with ESE 10kt harbor farts

Looks like MOS/machine was modestly cool biased ... ? Getting a lot of 94+ now. I also noticed the breeze kicked in here over the last hour. We were bouncing around 91 or 92, and then wind arrived and we observed a mini T jump in there. I mentioned this earlier... the models trying their best to limit the BL expansion heights, which of course would not realize the higher potential if that happened. I'm wondering if the over-turning took place.

95 here

69 is not picnic at that temp, either. The HI is 100

94

Definitely straight up hot out there today.

I'm not "Coastal" but the FA calls for that every year it seems. Anyone that has forecasted anything other than shoulder season blocking --> pseud-faux winter patterns, with windy sheared shitty mid seasons over the last 8 to 10 years were more wrong than right - a span of years within which the FA folks were hitting the winter sauce a bit more than what has occurred. Just sayn'

Probably 'false' foliage season is the better description.

Mixing hgts are limited in these model runs, which is sort of shirking the heat potential some... I'm seeing like 925mb BL depths at 18z on the NAM. Standard adiabatic extrapolation can't get the 1000mb much past 30C if that's all. So... the 2-m are only 90..91. Yet, the 850 mb T's, the standard BL summer metric sigma height is up +18 or +19C, which if that were the adiabat we'd be talking 99 or 101. That's 10 F worth of shirk. Lol. The last heat of the season has the pedigree to be mid and upper 90s, yet the models are pancaking the mixing heights at max heating.

you of all people? no way!

We're looking at 4 or 5 days of 90 to 94 type heat wave which began today for many front yards and towns but will be more convincing tomorrow through Thursday. Euro agrees with your assessment thereafter with heat returning over the weekend. Too early for confidence but it even soars Monday the 18th to 101 at Lawrence, MA otherwise a lot of 99's at all typical sites on the day. Aug 18 isn''t too late for that sort of thing, but it is nearing the climate drop off.

San Francisco can be brutal for ennui

Take up sky -diving