Typhoon Tip

If Hansen is right that aerosols are a kind of 'silver bullet' physical cause for the surge in global heat performance in 2023 ( ...continuing 2024 etc..), that's a very bad look for the ambit of the field/science. Why? because one knew that was coming. After all the science spanning the last three decades, from posit to super computing and back, no one or source that I can recall put out a prediction that said, "Warning: in February of 2023 a geological event of planetary scale will occur" And it's that arithmetic that bothers me. That one factor, aerosols and consequence, was missed. So since the Industrial Revolution ( and at some discrete scale it likely could be scienced that man's control over fire is when it all really began ... ) yeah... we have an idea of chemistry changes in the atmosphere, more importantly, that which is contributed from Human activities ... but in so far as "HOW" exactly that will manifest consequences? If we're missing one factor::big consequence scenarios, the likes of which can move the needle so fast at the scale of an entire planet, that doesn't sense like any predictions for the rest of this century and beyond are very credible, then. When we have to factor in a compendium of secondary ... tertiary feed-back harmonic consequences, it really sinks one's hopes. It almost senses like we are witnessing a relativistic, slow moving climate explosion already. From a human's vantage and perception of events in time there's no p-wave or shock to signal the detonation has occurred. But, relative to geological scales it's moving along at "explosion" rates. Yet again .. I come back to my core tenet in why the sense of urgency lags. It is because the factual nature of climate change's objectiveness is challenged to appeal to any of the five senses, of the individual, at any given moment. This is intuitively going to be a disadvantage when then integrating that experience in shaping the motivations at group scales. People respond to what is inimical via at least one of the corporeal senses, first. They don't motivate based upon mere advice - particularly when the scope of the advice is so vast. "If it's so big, why can't I see it?" There's also a ginormous intellectual capacity gap in humanity, one where those privy to the perils of climate change and in a willingness - because of the imperative it all implies - to accept the objective reality, are the minority. To the ballast of population, it is largely untenable beyond hearing someone else's advice. That's a scary proposition for a species boasting north of 8 billion farters. For everyone else.. humanity stands on the railroad track of destiny, and the iron beneath their feet whirs with the vibration of what's to come, yet they are too busy arguing over the color shoes they are wearing while in the engagement to really even notice.

It’s all way worse already than science is aware. Put it this way … the state of the science is about as aware of how bad it already really is, as they were in 2022 that 2023 would observe the global heat explosion …

Hm teleconnectors do though. It doesn't really look that way given the above, no... It's a bit odd that spatial layout computes -PNA, so something's weird. Fwiw - "Should the MJO remain coherent over the Indian Ocean, a potential late winter extratropical response features a retrograding longwave trough over North America, signaling the return of warmer temperatures over the eastern U.S. with more enhanced onshore flow over western North America." the funny thing about this statement is that "return" implies it was every here in the past. I think we've leaned cold since Xmas - unless they meant some sort of 'finally' sentiment

May the push back begin ...

https://www.npr.org/2025/02/15/nx-s1-5297183/noaa-national-weather-service-trump?utm_source=firefox-newtab-en-us

They bailed at D5 ... that's not bad. Problem is one of expectations - but I encourage folks understand when in time these model performances should really be expected to do well. Sometimes they'll nail the D6 ... but this winter has shown on multiple occasions that there were corrections at less than day 4 that were substantial enough to be meaningful to more or less impact. This is a problem during this winter with a very persistent compression and speed; that has never been an arena for stellar model performance.

Attitudes are probably not providing a very objective lens given to the last ... 8 years of winters ( LOL ) but, we actually have a rather robust +PNA between the 20th and 28th. The height gradient is a little more torpid during, ...thanks in no small part to the -EPO break down shutting off the deeper cold supply. But, there will be a window where a couple of event could transpire before the continental cold washes out to whatever that deep range above normal becomes. May have to contend with one or two more systems in that stretch. But, yeah... beyond that as we head into March, there are three concepts suggesting warmer rather than colder: - the deeper range teleconnector spread is neutral +EPO/-PNA/+AO; - La Nina spring climo; - recent decade of springs have hosted some bombastic warm spells... probably attribution-related.

I mean regardless of cause ... it gets to the point where it's impossible to question persistence. Unrelenting minimalist result behavior... It's just not going to happen, or, be as good, and we actually do know It's not terrible where I am here along rt 2 in all honesty, though. You have more reasons down there, I'm sure. However, even though there's been snow on the ground since really Jan 10 or so ... however thin, notwithstanding, it's really been about leaving it on the table. It's relative butt boning is what it is... we're all getting screwed by an on-paper amazing look, and that's going to be frustrating for some. It's just a matter of how much. Right now, I have about 9 or 10" of high density glacier pack, with moderate sized snow banks lining streets. Couple of Swiss Alps at the end of parking lots... It's 22 F with occasional turbine gusts going over the roof.

Neutral EPO with -PNA, while the annular mode goes from -4 (near historic low) to +3 this week... yeah, that "should" result in a reconstruction of basically everything. We'll see edit, the -PNA aspect is in March .. to be clear. We actually have a rather robust +PNA between the 20th and 28th. May have to contend with one or two more systems in that stretch, that look from longer range like they'll be very good, only to have attribution speed those up and f- 'em all up, too

https://phys.org/news/2025-02-earth-15c-global-limit-major.html

Now it’s mid IP we had S plus for about 45 seconds out of nowhere and now it’s back to sleet

Now it’s mod IP/S mixed

S+ at the moment 26

yeah...this event had a backside isallobaric wind acceleration potential written all over it.. Some that didn't get ice may be greeted with black out by dawn anyway

it's interesting it seems it's been biased SW over interior MA cause we were up to 35, than about hr ago it was 31 out of nowhere. The rain on the car top and windows is webbed now so we're glazing ...won't last much longer but.

We just tucked ... 35 to 30 in the last 20 minutes. Still straight rain but that's probably just because it's too fast and needs a little more time to respond.

It probably will in the night's runs coming up...

+Nobody wants to hear this but ... this could be circa 1987, and we'd be served a contiguous diet of armeggedon solutions until 9 hours before when the AVN pukes out a rat turd solution and everyone ignores it because ... there's all that momentum of course. This is actually showing how far modeling has come in situations like these... 4.5 days in advance

+Nobody wants to hear this but ... this could be circa 1987, and we'd be served a contiguous diet of armeggedon solutions until 9 hours before when the AVN pukes out a rat turd solution and everyone ignores it because ... there's all that momentum of course.

yeah, I don't think I agree with that. This predicament is because of the wave frequencies being transmitting down stream from the from Pacific. The ridge in the west is too flat. The L/W frequency from off the west coast through the continent is low. Y coordinate is shallow compared to the X coordinate, which is stretched. A higher latitude arced ridge in the west, would plumb this N/stream SPV fragment along a deeper solution into the OV - that's what tips the flow up the coast and normalizes that height field in SE Canada. That train wreck is there because these aspects are missing... If there was a greater frequency spanning the medium, it would negatively interfere with those feature N of Maine and the solution would dampen that aspect.

straight rain here. 32 ... looks like on the button, but accretion, despite being into fresh glacier of snow/sleet mix to the tune of 6", isn't happening. glad. phew. Cause when the winds come around after this thing that's a scenario I'm glad won't set up

It's my personal perspective as an observer in this social media ...so taken with a grain of salt, but I suspect part of problem with the grousing psychobabble bs, isn't really the winter appeal out of doors. It's the bad model cinema experience. It's a separate experience phenomenon to the actual appeal out the window. If these storm chances/bombs had better modeled cinema continuity ( and thus, bulk d-drip dosings LOL ) over the longer duration of this colder Jan/Feb), people's opinion of this winter would be much better. No question. We get these big signals and then failing to actually engage in model consumption with objectivity and constraint, the user risks inevitable yanking out of their high. The rug gets pulled out because the flow keeps correcting faster moving late mid into nearer terms - the predisposition of the basal circumstance...etc. It's like a constantly emerging neg offsets as a negative interference. But failing to constrain oneself ... if they were mindfully constrained by limitations ahead of the fact, they wouldn't get so giddy by the model run at hand. The let down quotient is ameliorated that way. Not many are that rational in their approach in here, if/when they engage with the intent of seeking that arousal first... It is what it is... When there is a 4" of white on the ground, you can't tell the difference if it's 40" of white on the ground. Both fields look totally white. It's not about the physical setting. The appeal has to be journey

just about 6" of 90% snow/ 10% sleet. Since then we've been ZR/IP mixed with pixie flakes along side. The plows are not down our side streets just yet, and it's laborious removal due to the sleet mixture and dense water content. This fairly breached a low end warning result here. IP/ZR/S- 24

Not to troll this thread and/or nut punch winter enthusiasts.. but is meant as an honest and genuinely intended effort. Warm 'bursting' synoptics has on the horizon coherent precedence. This is due to some converging reasons, some of which a few have trouble even discussing.. while others of the objective reality bent don't feel they need to actually bend over to accept as very real. 1 .. The temperature anomaly distribution in January, and I suspect in Feb from what I've been poking around and seeing thus far ... show that the cold sensible/empirical results over mid latitude N/A have been very local compared to the whole planet. I'm not going to bother digging up the graphic again... Point being, we've obviously been chanced factorization in a favorable spot, and I suspect it is quite enabling due to its persistence. We lose the one factor, and things can and most likely will turn around with air of rapidity... That factor was the NE Pacific proxy for some 7 weeks downstream over N/A ( -EPO load reloading pattern). 2 .. La Nina winters have a precedence for warm springs, anyway... 3 .. attribution - These can both be disparate aspects, or in situ related. The point here is, that is our background. Not what we see out the window. By the way, the 06z operational GFS brought 564 dm hydrostatic heights as far N up the EC as CON, NH, with 582 non-hydrostats as high up as NYC. Granted ... it's Mar 3, not exactly a beacon of confidence... LOL. However, given said spread, ... warm operational solutions will probably begin materializing in the extended, along with a markedly different synoptic landscape implied, while we are negotiating these threats over the next 10 days.

... not that my opinion is worth a shit .. .but, there's time for this to come back as an albeit more progressive climate coastal version, for along and SE of a Del Marva - SE of White Plains to S NH. Just may not be giant. Obviously don't have to tell you, just sayn' Grousing and sense of loss as to the slow moving 968 mb juggernauts, aside, the N/stream in this potential phase ordeal appears to be stable to within 10 .. 20% all along. I suspect there is a tendency to focus there, and seeing the low becomes flatter and weaker in the last 24 hours, ... folks aren't correcting for much else? But, it's not really the N/stream aspects that is the problem from what I'm seeing. The S/W ejected out of eastern Pacific decided to wack some power off the wave space in these recent runs. If the S/Stream were stronger, that would help entice the N/Stream subsume mechanics to trigger sooner due to dynamic height fall/feed-backs...etc etc. The relay noses in or begins to at during these runs going forward. Particularly tonight.. It may be worth it to monitor the mechanics as they are relaying into the more physically realized sounding domain.