Typhoon Tip

Looks like that through about the 7th...10th of March, yeah. But, I also caution ( you know this... ) if the tapestry of thicknesses relax at all, you know how folks get kind of disconnected. After all this time, people may forget that our rest state will bounce - not going to address the why-elephant. I'll just keep it to the notion that we're after solar min, so a 537 dm afternoon with light west wind and sun will highly likely propel the temperatures over most machine guidance, and/or probably the cold addled forecaster's expecations. LOL. The old nape season bust factor... We may need some time to get reintroduced to the real world when this -EPO dominating thing relaxes. There's one more pulse of that ( for now ..) next week... it may play a role in the 28th thing, we'll see on that.. 6z GFS blah blah. but after that, it looks interesting the longer range. All sources still insist a bigger collapse will happen around that temporal boundary. It's not being pushed back either. Probably it will eventually can kicked at least a little. Never seen a warm up in spring happen on time - we could go Venus on Earth, and Earth will find away to point Labrodor's giant cryo butt at us, and then deliberately overdose it with laxative. But hey... if an Ides +EPO/-PNA/+(AO/NAO) can somehow soar us from this, to that... that'd be pretty cool to see.

Nah...same shit of moving too fast for that... In fact, I'm a little bemused by the relaxing compression yet the S/W remain so fast. I think the whole arena past the 25th is going to probably be reworked in future runs.

It's another failing phase ... the Euro reflects both the S/stream and the N/stream separately

I applaud the Euro for detecting ... ... this season's achievement in snowing the least plausible amount relative to any physical circumstance is finally being modeled by one of these damn things. The 28th signal on this run has a coastal running up with an impressive nor'easter signaled, yet nothing happens on the west side of the cyclone the entire way up the coast. that's a neat trick... but then again, I don't put anything past this season at this point.

He launched an invalid interpretation of what I was discussing ... you bit on it as if that interpretation was correct, therefore ...blah This is how our society got a demagogue into power - just expand that spontaneous misrepresentation of facts, and how it grows into an asshole tree, out to the dimensions of a society, and that is how the shade under which our culture no longer sees the sun

heh... depends on what people have in mind when visualizing what "out" means Spring in New England is an assault to humanity by god himself. Let's get that clear haha. I mean, you're going to eat shit some how, some way. In this forum of malcontents ... we'll probably just relay seamlessly into whining for the next abysmality. We could sans the cold .. but eventually we'll have to pass through the Aprilian gauntlet ... a terror of Labradorian ass-blow. I got to say, after a winter chalk full of blocking episodes and an unrelenting cool bias that is targeting this specific region the planet ( see chart a few posts ago...), this spring just reeks of a big ass on climate laxative. So what does out mean.

All complexity aside ... there is a present tendency to slip back into the exact same persistence the caused this oddball anomaly distribution below... (granted that's just January, but ...mm fuck me if Feb isn't the same. We'll see - ) In fact, if you look at the EPS mean in the previous post and map it over this, the pattern of the EPS going into and thru the first week of March, fits this temperature distribution ideally... That all argues for persistence of Jan/Feb to continue rollin' on. The trick is, when does persistence break? At some point in will... I mean in a snarky sense, July is still going to happen so this bs enable cold fan-base to bury their heads in it can't go on forever. LOL.

This is for after March 1 well, ... like I said, the -EPO/-PNA applies a different correlative pattern, compared to a -EPO underpinned by a low frequency +PNA state. If using just the teleconnector correlations: The former is the west loaded cold, east warm up scenario. The latter is a oscillatory cold pattern in a more sustained BL, one that is then occasionally stung by modified frigid pulses - this particular winter's version. ... As an aside, you'd think that option B is the better snow storm producer - in principle, you'd be correct... However, this compression issue, which I feel is being enhanced by CC and attribution ... is creating a circumstance where in order to sustain an option B, there is destructive interference related to compression/speed mechanics. Cold is causing it because it just improving gradient whenever it exerts into middle latitudes... Anyway, the larger synoptic hemisphere cinemas of the ens means, don't look warm anywhere frankly. So this is one of those situations where math says we actively start seeing recovery in the east, while the placement of major features in the synoptic overviews do not. I'm not totally sure which way to go there. One of the other may move toward one or the other. 50/50. In the meantime, nothing backs the concept of early 70s in D.C. like this,

Really? Do you have another source than CPC, below. This is the 3-month tendencies so ...maybe pulling Feb out the three shows something else, but "high probability" doesn't quite sense right either

-EPO reload in both the tele's, and the spatial handling of the synoptics. The PNA is different this time. It's -PNA. That's changes that map a little...

Yeah the GEFs was actually even more aggressive with a new -EPO in the first week of March, and the EPS appears to be collapsing. Two days ago this was not there in either, and it's now dominating the spatial layout out of nowhere. Can't say it's a bad outlook... Persistence alone may force hands. So, for winter/cold enthusiasts, that's a good sign for more near misses because of poisonous speed flow footing. The WPO remains neutral or even modestly positive so... hopefully for spring/warm enthusiasts, that will abase the GEFS/EPS and go on to verify at least a nominal temperature theme.

It becomes .. or 'might' become, particularly more intolerable during these sunny afternoons of latter February. I mean, it'll be hard pressed to find a sky that pure in the warm season around here, so in some respects the actual photo-ocular effectiveness of the sun's "shining" is going to be even more triggering then a day in May. So then you walk out there and your stunned by the cold - that's the intolerable thing. Your mind was trying to associate that brilliance and so conjures unresolvable nostalgia.

It was a response to your sentence: "Hanson is right that aerosols are key for untangling our recent climate history." Beyond which ... I was just being very general in that missive. You may notice that I didn't cite any other source or study, data or conclusions therein? that's a red flag for rhetoric vs meaty value. LOL Silver bullet may sound strong, but that's just semantic word choice for affect. Key. Main factor... whatever - But, I do believe there is real value/veracity in the idea that there is a range in a kind of consequence spectrum that is quite unknown, more importantly, that planetary ( PLANET ) wide huge movement is a warning that such unknowns have an intrinsic risk

Heh ... been awhile since we had a NAM coup. Maybe it's time for a wiener solution to work out

exactly what I thought. and that is interesting -

I have a question for the storm vs dates folk. ... is there a list of of dates out of the NDJFM months that did not have a snow storm? - and 2" of snow is not a storm in that question. In fact, any such list of orphaned dates is less than 6" obviously, the first couple of weeks of N and the last couple of weeks of M in that list we would be likely to find some ...so it's more for DJF.

Definitely looks shaky to me as of this morning... There's a new -EPO flex out there in the GEFs mean, that the EPS has been reluctant to see for whatever reason. This regards the period(s) after 3/1 ... The GEFs have been performing remarkably well with that particular factor, all year. Each one that it detected in this two week window has actually verified pretty damn well. There's just one difference this time - which I'm not sure of... The WPO is not a part of this particular new decline in the index. Priors had the advantage of an ongoing negative WPO. Such that every time the EPO was projected to rise positive, the WPO's persistence in negative during was a red flag. Those two are tightly correlated given some lag - a lag that makes sense given that the WPO is west of the EPO in domain coverage .. and so on. SO, I have seen charlie brown EPO index forecasts in the past by the GEFs too. And since attacking clad forecaster projection efforts appears to be an intangible storm this season ( LOL ) this would be a perfect opportunity for the GEFs to set up another "gale." The entire sensitivity to warming up in March - other than sun and seasonal .. - is related to the EPO sourcing from what I am seeing. If we remove that, we will recover. In fact, there's already operational signals that the deeper cold thickness may relax next week from 40N and lower over the continent, and the nearer term rise in the EPO is red handed. By the way, the EPS has a signal for the 28ths. Both the GEFs and the EPS have a "bump" in the PNA, despite the GEFs not being quite as interested in manifesting an actual event. But seeing as both have a signal in their respective telecons, there's plenty of time for the the GEFs to emerge one.

If Hansen is right that aerosols are a kind of 'silver bullet' physical cause for the surge in global heat performance in 2023 ( ...continuing 2024 etc..), that's a very bad look for the ambit of the field/science. Why? because one knew that was coming. After all the science spanning the last three decades, from posit to super computing and back, no one or source that I can recall put out a prediction that said, "Warning: in February of 2023 a geological event of planetary scale will occur" And it's that arithmetic that bothers me. That one factor, aerosols and consequence, was missed. So since the Industrial Revolution ( and at some discrete scale it likely could be scienced that man's control over fire is when it all really began ... ) yeah... we have an idea of chemistry changes in the atmosphere, more importantly, that which is contributed from Human activities ... but in so far as "HOW" exactly that will manifest consequences? If we're missing one factor::big consequence scenarios, the likes of which can move the needle so fast at the scale of an entire planet, that doesn't sense like any predictions for the rest of this century and beyond are very credible, then. When we have to factor in a compendium of secondary ... tertiary feed-back harmonic consequences, it really sinks one's hopes. It almost senses like we are witnessing a relativistic, slow moving climate explosion already. From a human's vantage and perception of events in time there's no p-wave or shock to signal the detonation has occurred. But, relative to geological scales it's moving along at "explosion" rates. Yet again .. I come back to my core tenet in why the sense of urgency lags. It is because the factual nature of climate change's objectiveness is challenged to appeal to any of the five senses, of the individual, at any given moment. This is intuitively going to be a disadvantage when then integrating that experience in shaping the motivations at group scales. People respond to what is inimical via at least one of the corporeal senses, first. They don't motivate based upon mere advice - particularly when the scope of the advice is so vast. "If it's so big, why can't I see it?" There's also a ginormous intellectual capacity gap in humanity, one where those privy to the perils of climate change and in a willingness - because of the imperative it all implies - to accept the objective reality, are the minority. To the ballast of population, it is largely untenable beyond hearing someone else's advice. That's a scary proposition for a species boasting north of 8 billion farters. For everyone else.. humanity stands on the railroad track of destiny, and the iron beneath their feet whirs with the vibration of what's to come, yet they are too busy arguing over the color shoes they are wearing while in the engagement to really even notice.

It’s all way worse already than science is aware. Put it this way … the state of the science is about as aware of how bad it already really is, as they were in 2022 that 2023 would observe the global heat explosion …

Hm teleconnectors do though. It doesn't really look that way given the above, no... It's a bit odd that spatial layout computes -PNA, so something's weird. Fwiw - "Should the MJO remain coherent over the Indian Ocean, a potential late winter extratropical response features a retrograding longwave trough over North America, signaling the return of warmer temperatures over the eastern U.S. with more enhanced onshore flow over western North America." the funny thing about this statement is that "return" implies it was every here in the past. I think we've leaned cold since Xmas - unless they meant some sort of 'finally' sentiment

May the push back begin ...

https://www.npr.org/2025/02/15/nx-s1-5297183/noaa-national-weather-service-trump?utm_source=firefox-newtab-en-us

They bailed at D5 ... that's not bad. Problem is one of expectations - but I encourage folks understand when in time these model performances should really be expected to do well. Sometimes they'll nail the D6 ... but this winter has shown on multiple occasions that there were corrections at less than day 4 that were substantial enough to be meaningful to more or less impact. This is a problem during this winter with a very persistent compression and speed; that has never been an arena for stellar model performance.

Attitudes are probably not providing a very objective lens given to the last ... 8 years of winters ( LOL ) but, we actually have a rather robust +PNA between the 20th and 28th. The height gradient is a little more torpid during, ...thanks in no small part to the -EPO break down shutting off the deeper cold supply. But, there will be a window where a couple of event could transpire before the continental cold washes out to whatever that deep range above normal becomes. May have to contend with one or two more systems in that stretch. But, yeah... beyond that as we head into March, there are three concepts suggesting warmer rather than colder: - the deeper range teleconnector spread is neutral +EPO/-PNA/+AO; - La Nina spring climo; - recent decade of springs have hosted some bombastic warm spells... probably attribution-related.

I mean regardless of cause ... it gets to the point where it's impossible to question persistence. Unrelenting minimalist result behavior... It's just not going to happen, or, be as good, and we actually do know It's not terrible where I am here along rt 2 in all honesty, though. You have more reasons down there, I'm sure. However, even though there's been snow on the ground since really Jan 10 or so ... however thin, notwithstanding, it's really been about leaving it on the table. It's relative butt boning is what it is... we're all getting screwed by an on-paper amazing look, and that's going to be frustrating for some. It's just a matter of how much. Right now, I have about 9 or 10" of high density glacier pack, with moderate sized snow banks lining streets. Couple of Swiss Alps at the end of parking lots... It's 22 F with occasional turbine gusts going over the roof.