Typhoon Tip

Exactly .. .as much as we try, folks' just keep latching onto the latest run to promote their sadistic intent to feel horrible about matters. You know what? who cares -- are you guys really that freaked out about missing 29" over solid foot of fun? Hell, if it snow 5" here, plowable, in this pattern? you got like the start...

I don't agree with NAM being onto anything. It can't keep continuity between runs wrt to jet streak tracking, changing from run to run across the last 24 hours of cycles... back and forth. No folks -

This NAM run breaks continuity all over the place with vorticity maxima ... I'd take this run with a grain of salt...

They are sensible...considering all options and contingencies... Let's not get into this "what are they thinking!" just because it goes against the meme of a done deal (not that you are, just sayin')

Two weeks earlier that season on January 19th-20th, there was a big one ... I think that one was forecast as a rain/mix pellet fest and turned out to set Boston's 24 -hour snow record for the time.

Not really ... honestly, these system get fickle the higher up the ladder they get... You got to kind of expect the unexpected... No one thought 110mph wind burst from tropospheric fold would take place in December 2005 for example. There's that... but this is multi faceted... Tides are a concern. Major flooding at shore district is being warned... There could be wind gust power outages in powder snow ... I mean, the envelope is full, and specifics of that order take place or don't.

Thanks bro - that's perfect for comparison..

Look at this spin evidenced by radar !! http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php That's gotta explode when that torgue moves out over the boundary between this artic air invading the NE and near-by coastal waters, and that of the thermally charged west Atlantic/Gulf Stream. That's sick... Shrink that thing up a bit and it would almost look like one of those book-end vortices off an MCS. Usually you see cyclonic structure evident than the actual rotation.. But here we see both!

The state of the art of "storm management" from a Civil Engineering perspective is a bit more sophisticated compared to 1978. Also, there are in-home and in-office amenities that make living easier in general, so that sort of a storm can't really carry the same impact. Relative to times, we'd need yet a more severe storm than 1978 was, in order to compare/off-set these advantages of more modern, and ever improving capacities to deal with calamities of such ilk. Secondly, 1978 was ...for lack of better word, perfection. There's this storm in lore from 20 someodd years go called the "Perfect Storm"; truth be told, there are probably a handful of storms dating back 200 to 300 years that could be indistinguishable from 'pefection', in the sense that the parametric design going into them are so exceedingly rare. They transcend the regular pedestrian weather affair that designs the winter-time seasonal norm in our neck of the woods. So having said that, making this storm both comparable (relative to era) to 1978, and ... having it verify as having such distinctive physical components in it's evolution, are very tall orders, and a betting man would be wise to say no - it won't. That being said, at some point in time, ... comets collide with planets. Stars go supernovae. So we can't remove the probability of a dystopic outcome altogether... Best thing to do is heed warnings by reputable media outlets, and for those that understand the esoteric nature of the langue, monitor the modeling, data, and AFDs.

Borrowed from the other thread, ... with Feb 1978 being in the top 5 analogs, I thought it fitting to start this one off with an homage to a legend:

It had a nice negative tilt to it showing up in the OV... I like to look for that for NJ model lows.