Typhoon Tip

Shouldn't have been so 'amazing' frankly. I realize I am but one voice opposed to a shrill din of bandwagoneers .. but no, 'been pounding the "NAO over rated drum" for a number of years. But hey - the only way to heard is to published so, taken fwiw - The EPO domain space and its timed relay into mode changes in the PNA, together serve as the primary cold loading patterns over N/A. The NAO is merely an assist, but not required. People pull statistics out of the cherry tree that show that x-y-z years were negative NAOs when more snow occurred, thus the natural conclusion is a-b-c. But no, ..that is all more likely because there is a weak negative correlation in the PNA/NAO relationship. Such that a rising PNA tends concurrently with a falling NAO over the longer term. Retrograde events do take place from time to time, but the rest state is west to east... NAO doesn't dictate snow events people. In fact, a "statically" negative NAO is a suppress flow exertion and that causes perturbations in the atmosphere to dampen/shear. The NAO may have positive last year on the whole, but I bet you dimes to donuts it was fluctuating up and down, above 0 SD, as the PNA/EPO were doing their thing.

One thing that's always stood out in my memory as interesting about that '92 storm was all the consternation before hand regarding p-type and where.... Yet, when all was set and done, not only did snow win out in most places (given time and dynamics depending) but the temp was into the upper teens in a lot of those some areas of interior eastern zones. That's not just a p-type and subsequent snow amount bust... that's busting with some serious panache! 17 F ??!! hello -

...oh man. After this up here, an advisory wouldn't even be noticed... People would be out running around in short sleeve shirts in relief if they got an advisory. 'Thank got we've improved all the way to an advisory -- now we can live normally again!'

Long way to go before that can be tested... I just saw a 12-18" graphic...

I have a hunch ... these cut-off histrionic historical hysteria storms... when the cut off, that gives a solid 12 hours for bands to move farther SW than modeled. Tends to happen. We'll see...

We used to call that the "double E" rule, back whence the NAM was called ETA... and was a better model, ironically...

Rad returns in the MA and S of LI have abruptly begun a west drift if not movement, and I'd argue that the 700 and 500 mb sfc are in processes of closing at this time. They will only deepen going forward. meanwhile, heavy band approaching the Cape and SE

HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR A CRIPPLING/HISTORIC BLIZZARD IMPACTING S NEW ENGLAND. NEGATIVELY-TILTING H5 TROUGH THROUGH WHICH MID-LEVEL ENERGY INTENSIFIES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SE OF NANTUCKET NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK NE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY ALONG AN OFFSHORE BAROCLINIC ZONE ENHANCED BY HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED N ACROSS E CANADA. CLASSIC CONVEYOR BELTS BENEATH H3 JET COUPLING AXES OF RRQ / LFQ YIELDS STRONG DIFFLUENT MOTIONS ALOFT. LOW VERTICALLY STACKS / FILLS BECOMING CAPTURED / STALLING BENEATH THE CLOSING LOW ALOFT RESULTING IN A SLOW-MOVING / LONG-DURATION STORM. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OF 40-50 MB IN 18 HRS. ALREADY ONGOING AS LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS THE INITIAL NEGATIVE-TILT AHEAD OF WHICH THE BAROCLINIC-LEAF STRUCTURE IS EVIDENT. LOTS OF OFFSHORE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY INDICATIVE THAT THIS STORM IS GETTING BEEFY/INTENSIFYING. ITS BOMBOGENESIS BABY!

- CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD - SERIOUS LIFE-THREATENING STORM / TRAVEL DISCOURAGED! - 1 TO 2 FT OF SNOW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SNOW-BANDING - WHITE OUT CONDITIONS / NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITIES AT TIMES - STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS / HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND - MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING / SEVERE BEACH EROSION Hell on Earth... okay, got it. That's all you had to say, the scariest place imaginable.

Now cast is upon us... Shed little weary tears for wayward solutions when the wave is about to curl over your head. Stunned at the 12z Euro tho - wow. Model of choice do to the lesser of evils.. Daunting too, with it's point 45" numbers in SE zone; somewhat hearkens to 1978 which pummeled i that region particularly hard (NE RI ...) One of the more fantastic baroclinic leafs I can recall:

I took one look at one panel of the 18z RGEM ...36 hour panel, and structurally there are a lot of differences compared to this 00z NAM run... Believe me, I know my stuff -

The Euro has been better.

1... Will might be better to ask that, but ... I have found the RGEM to be a darn good tool inside of 36 hours in general. In fact, I use that over the NAM in most cases. Which is interesting considering the GGEM can't predict a hole in the head after losing Russian Roulettes. 2. If they are, the NAM is coincidental... But even the RGEM isn't infallible.

exactly...

Exactly .. .as much as we try, folks' just keep latching onto the latest run to promote their sadistic intent to feel horrible about matters. You know what? who cares -- are you guys really that freaked out about missing 29" over solid foot of fun? Hell, if it snow 5" here, plowable, in this pattern? you got like the start...

I don't agree with NAM being onto anything. It can't keep continuity between runs wrt to jet streak tracking, changing from run to run across the last 24 hours of cycles... back and forth. No folks -

This NAM run breaks continuity all over the place with vorticity maxima ... I'd take this run with a grain of salt...

They are sensible...considering all options and contingencies... Let's not get into this "what are they thinking!" just because it goes against the meme of a done deal (not that you are, just sayin')

Two weeks earlier that season on January 19th-20th, there was a big one ... I think that one was forecast as a rain/mix pellet fest and turned out to set Boston's 24 -hour snow record for the time.

Not really ... honestly, these system get fickle the higher up the ladder they get... You got to kind of expect the unexpected... No one thought 110mph wind burst from tropospheric fold would take place in December 2005 for example. There's that... but this is multi faceted... Tides are a concern. Major flooding at shore district is being warned... There could be wind gust power outages in powder snow ... I mean, the envelope is full, and specifics of that order take place or don't.

Thanks bro - that's perfect for comparison..

Look at this spin evidenced by radar !! http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php That's gotta explode when that torgue moves out over the boundary between this artic air invading the NE and near-by coastal waters, and that of the thermally charged west Atlantic/Gulf Stream. That's sick... Shrink that thing up a bit and it would almost look like one of those book-end vortices off an MCS. Usually you see cyclonic structure evident than the actual rotation.. But here we see both!

The state of the art of "storm management" from a Civil Engineering perspective is a bit more sophisticated compared to 1978. Also, there are in-home and in-office amenities that make living easier in general, so that sort of a storm can't really carry the same impact. Relative to times, we'd need yet a more severe storm than 1978 was, in order to compare/off-set these advantages of more modern, and ever improving capacities to deal with calamities of such ilk. Secondly, 1978 was ...for lack of better word, perfection. There's this storm in lore from 20 someodd years go called the "Perfect Storm"; truth be told, there are probably a handful of storms dating back 200 to 300 years that could be indistinguishable from 'pefection', in the sense that the parametric design going into them are so exceedingly rare. They transcend the regular pedestrian weather affair that designs the winter-time seasonal norm in our neck of the woods. So having said that, making this storm both comparable (relative to era) to 1978, and ... having it verify as having such distinctive physical components in it's evolution, are very tall orders, and a betting man would be wise to say no - it won't. That being said, at some point in time, ... comets collide with planets. Stars go supernovae. So we can't remove the probability of a dystopic outcome altogether... Best thing to do is heed warnings by reputable media outlets, and for those that understand the esoteric nature of the langue, monitor the modeling, data, and AFDs.

Borrowed from the other thread, ... with Feb 1978 being in the top 5 analogs, I thought it fitting to start this one off with an homage to a legend:

It had a nice negative tilt to it showing up in the OV... I like to look for that for NJ model lows.