Typhoon Tip

Yeah... yes it is. Regardless of cultural implications relative to 'where' these big clock events have come on shore, the 'when' of them has been really alarming. You know ...I read 10 or 15 years go, papers ...peer reviewed ones, espousing the uptick in mean severity of ISE because of GW ... but, back then, I had counter ( and still do ) theoretical thinking. The antipathy was/is centered around "gradients" Gradient drives ...well, all of reality actually. The difference between here ...and over there... IF it were all the same at all quantum points ubiquitously down to the Plank-length of the space time continuum ..everywhere, nothing would move. There would be no positive vs negative charge ... The would be no curved space, thus ...no gravity... thus, no aggregating mass... no starts, planets ... molecules ...just a soup of inert motionlessness that is for all effective reasons, none existent because it has not effective meaning... That baser principle is what reality is foundation'ed upon ( bare with me... ). You have to think about the weather that way? Warm vs cool. Hot vs cold. Theta-e ( think dewpoint) vs regions with non or surplus compared ... These are all gradients. The are all what gives rise to the actual dynamic action of wind... and clouds and rain and storms ...and the null areas, we call sunny days. Gradient drives everything... Just because we warm the atmosphere due to global warm... that does not concomitantly connote a very intense frequency of storms. You still have to have a heat sink... ( gradient ) capable of ingesting the exhaust from the heat source ( the warming ocean ). I just never read any passages in those early papers that really demonstrated this simple sort of thermodynamic arithmetic was being considered enough. If the the oceans warm... yes, that means additional thermal energy is plausible... but, that energy may not necessarily be accessible ...if say...the couple atmosphere is already holding more moisture than usual from having already adjusted. Also, the tropical sounding is a conditional instability type ..The typical sounding has a dry warm region at mid levels...with warm saturable parcel lifted into it, mixing causes diabatic release which then gives parcel buoyancy ...more so than the negative region of the sounding. It's why you tend to see narrow tall turrets... If that region warms due to balanced latent heat increases, that lowers the instability. In other words, if GW is uniform at multiple levels, ...it's unclear to me how that really effects TS ... And all this frequency could just be normal... However, having said all that... it might be that the warming is outpacing the total atmospheric balance, so ... yeah.. I wonder if there's a temporal window here where we denude islands and punish greedy coastal planners...

So it's in the media today, Michael's hurricane intensity officially being set at category 5 per reanalysis ( I assume to be reanalysis ) ... Here's the thing ...that headline gave me pause for two reasons: Another category five hurricane in the Atlantic basin so soon since the blitzkrieg of a couple years ago ?? But also, what the who the f is Michael? Oh yeah... that one - Man, we've been sooo saturated by these biblical tempests in the last ...well, since Katrina for all intents and purposes, that it's all sort of blending into one contiguous event. A touch of sarcasm to that statement, but... fact of the matter is, you hear the same tape played often enough you sort of automatically start committing less of it to memory. It doesn't have 'as much' shock and awe, it's indelible mark in your memory stops happening. I mean I completely forget Micheal happened... I think ... or suspect rather, that Micheal making landfall where he did ... sparing very dense population circuitry ... helps media extinguish the manic coverage. Not sure... maybe the media industry is looking at the numbers and seeing a fall off in interest due to the same saturation fatigue ...and are letting things go sooner, too - Either way, I almost feel like we should start counting on a strong catty 4 if not 5'er as a perfunctory seasonal result - just a matter of whether it's actually impacting land... much more, land populated by something other than frigates and wind stripped palms

Ha...right - may not be what you were getting at but it reminds me of the whole 'stick a hapless WC reporter out on the end of a pier in a hurricane like we're supposed to be surprised by the wind' phenomenon -

You couldn't pay me to sit in that brick, mortar and iron cauldron for the Red Sox' seasonal opener/ceremonies... Holy hell... I suppose there is some slim chance it clears a bit... I was just noticing on hi res sat imagery ... if one were to be driving west on the Pike ...somewhere near Pittsfield or even a little E of that longitude, the sky abruptly clears.. It's like you drive up in elevations and out of the bowl of cryo vomit submerging the hapless civility fallen victim to SNE's uniquely topographically enforced sewer system of cold drainage.. Might even be some mt top under-casting going on.. But, imagery over the Gulf of Maine exposes and active WSW trajectory is still well-established so it's likely this is a sock -in fisting ... Even if cold, a still wind and sun might make Fenway tolerable ... barring that, no way!

The whole climate-change causality-crisis circuitry is wired by a particular failure in the ballast of most of those walking the Earth. This species has difficulty accepting threat and/or peril ... unless it is directly perceivable via at least one of the five senses. Here's the interesting aspect; it is not really the fault of humans ... All biology responds to sensory input. Global Warming's effective destruction moves too slowly, is too subtle, when moving daily temperatures short decimals, from year to year, means "oh my god!" That sense of urgency is intrinsically incongruous with lacking perception of threat. Gives rise to a catch-22; because it is precisely an immediate response,to a threat they cannot readily perceive, that is necessary. By the time GW-related climate change is palpable to the senses in that way ... you're dying from the apocalypse. "Oh, seems GW was re -" ...death gasp. gone. Simply put... tell someone to get off the train tracks ...they may take a few moments to look around, eventually stepping off... maybe not. That same person sees the train? They dive off those track... with the lithe dexterity of a paratrooper! Speaking with Professors at MIT and BU ... the consensus among peers is that this problem is as much a sociological one as it is chemical. It's a functional conclusion that bears both intuition as well as an explanation that fits empirical data.

What's her name?

I was just ruminating back to 1998 ... 21 years ago - seems sort of weird when you say it that way. But, March 29, 30 and 31st of that year were 89 to 91 F each afternoon. This thing? Today? Seems like shaving pubic hairs around here getting a day like today on March 30 - that musta been one hellluva fantastic anomaly back in the day... Considering it's been 21 years with no return ... the rate is 0. Speak volumes

Yeah we surged to 63 here up along the rt poopie ... It was 44 1.5 hours ago - That's the shallow bd air mass washing out for us there!

yeheah... like, stealin' a nice day out of this mess - the atmospheric equivalency to 'chicken salad out outta chicken shit'

Oh yeah dude... Deer? heh... they snort bird seed like 'coke -

we warned everyone days ago ... still, tomorrow could end up better than modeled ... sometimes SW warm sectored air can surprisingly clear out

It almost seems like ...just eye-ballin' those seasonal snow numbers, the heaviest water-shed run-off may be on the NW sides of the topographic divide ...

Good day for faux warm appeal... Walk outta your house on the south side of the edifice ... where the wind is all but completely sheltered and you'd swear it's 72 .. 44

Solid air mass performance considering the sky could not be any more clear if it were on the moon

Part of that also is that we still have a velocity surplus issue in the atmosphere ... ( 'swear, some upstart grad student needs to flash an insight and release a rock-star catapulting paper the demos how GW is causing this to happen...) and fronts always seem to end up ahead of mid range schedule because of the stretching that is concomitant with fast flow - whether related to the parenthetical sarcasm or not, that's been something I've noticed... Anyway, could see Saturday end up more polluted with 68/57 and warm mist and sun splash intervals ( faux subtropical) before strong polar front clears house. Friday may be +3 C at 850 and super adiabatically annihilating the BL thickness to over achieve if that light wind high sun angle and lower cloud due to still lower RH all plays out. As far as the season... no, ... not by tenor to date, or climatology in the first place, combined. Those two factors/2 = whatever you want ... plan on being ass rammed, cuz that's been the most correlated result since the Novie snow/cold deliberately set the region up for that assault ... Seriously, you could couch the whole question/debate of 'can it snow again' under the heading of 'not impossible until May 22nd,' which I've seen noodles in Waltham on that day back in 2003... I've seen snow showers to a slushy inch on Boston Commons on May 20th in 2002... Of course there's, 1977,... 1987... blah blah blah. Some years ..yeah, you just sort of sense in the gestalt of the times it won't allow it and you're season is wrapped up with no hope or chances by the end of February - 2009 leaps to mind with nearly full green-up by April 10 that year (something I'd never seen before or since...). This year will detest warm enthusiasts while simultaneously leaving a taste of shit in the mouth of snow lovers -

Also, if using the Euro ... the day before might end up the warmest day, too.. Keeping ur concepts in mind, that day the flow appears more veered slightly ...should the warm boundary/related clouds not interfere ... I've seen that in the past where the day before ends up the warmest. ...sort of changing the subject from Saturday, to the warm generality.

MOS is putting up 63 to 68 numbers for Saturday pan-wide across SNE sites ... The idea to keep in mind with MOS for those that look(ed) at it, those values are more weighted by climate the further out in time. Therefore, the 66 type numbers put up for Saturday ... day five, are some 14 over climatology average of just 52. That may not just be a mild day at this time of year, because the signal is strong enough to rise above said weighting... That said ... as is also concomitant with this time of year... a warm frontal placement can bust a high temperature by some 30 F or more.... I've seen it be 44 at BVY while it's 77 at HFD ... because a warm front slammed to a halt shy of Worcester. One could probably see their dash therm jump from 49 to 68 all at once driving west on the Pike out there over the span of just a few miles. Right now the synopsis has a broad warm front extending from somewhere near ORD to PWM ... That's precarious at this time of year. But, the models have unilaterally been consistent with that fragile set up succeeding so we'll see... Thickness up to 554 dm with 850 mb T's 7 to 10C while lazy flags wobble from SW zephyrs propably gets to to 74 actually at Springfield if those parameters succeed into the region and there is sufficient sun.

Kind of a napey day out there... Light wind and high-ish sun at 49 F ... gotta also admit, I wasn't thinking it was gonna be that 'mild' - relatively speaking...

Three cycles and counting and I love the rendition illustrated by the operational GFS ... Parallel run not too dissimilar, as is the GGEM... though differ on details... Between 18z Saturday and 00z Sunday ... 70 to 74 F along the Pike while there's 1.5"/hr snow rates along the N side of the St L. Seaway... That's pretty neat to see - ...

Ha ha... Folks ruminating on the seasonal change with Hostas and Lillies and gunk and y'all can't have it - they gotta come in drop winter post-bombs to yank it back into perpetual winter immersion support group ... It'll be July 10 and same thing... I know -

Lazy spring vibe out there ... I got those tiny aerial insect balls hovering .. bobbing left right up down in unison over the hood of my car and lawn. Sure tell sign of the times ... Too bad it's going to regress colder 'n a Mastodon's unthawed anus for three f'n days. That's spring incarnate around this god-forsaken geographic circumvallate of an orifice known as New England. It does that every year ... a day like today, it's a super hot fantasy girl kissing you on the cheek. And while your eyes are still closed in awe and ecstatic joy, this nasty horror story of a prison gang banger guy swaps out and ass reams you relentlessly. Your squealing in agony like a pig while he's asking you how that nice day felt - Am I gettin' through ? If I were a millionaire ... I would own a separate residence, replete with comprehensive homeownership insurance. The abode just sans of any heirlooms or family prized possessions, ...And there I am, out there, amid the warm windy prairies somewhere in the swash of tornado alley. Towering leaning turrets and wavy sun simmered air ... While it's 39 F in Framingham, Massachusetts with mist, slate gray sky and a thoroughly caressing east wind. I would gladly forsake the New England mock-spring and tortured persecution complex ... and flee to that second home circa late March until early June, or mid May. Or whatever it takes... If the place happens to get clocked and has to be rebuilt, I re-emerge out of my tornado cellar no worse for the wear and just wait out my insurance coverage to rebuild. See... I'm not there living per se... I'm there to escape this prison; perennially, I leave behind all the other hapless cell-block assholes, left to ponder as they sit around and rationalize and quibble over how here on the inside, we hold out hope for snow through April ... Delusion over despair. I innocently strollin' on come back in May and am like, "Hey y'all - whatcha been up to" haha. Ah yes... "Spring" in New England. I'm kidding - of course... But I think it was Samuel Clemens A.K.A. 'Mark Twain,' who once famously quipped, 'the worst winter I ever experienced was a summer in San Francisco' ... the dude never spent April in New England I can guarantee that, because while I would never diminish the misery behind his motivation for saying that of our west coast brethren, I certainly would put spring right in there in New England, as worthy of an honorable mention.

7" here in NW Middlesex country ... Just made the winter storm warning criteria ... heh, the 8th seed in the NBA... "National Blizzard Association" playoffs Now 38" on the season at mi casa

Heh... this was too well advertised and also empirically too larger in scale to fit with the 'little critter' concept - Bozart et. al. unless you just meant that for colloquialism

It's interesting looking at this (time-sensitive?) image provided by WPC ... Just how much of this thing is entirely produced by mid-level forcing, as anything associated to cyclogenesis appears quite suppressed... Weak low east of Del Marva, with a track trough situated ENE, doesn't scream in favor of the low positions offered by many guidance' I saw leading up - looks like the low position its self may bust S ... just estimating. We're actually closer to the high pressure centered near western Maine; while we brow rub over the northern extent of snows... I'm almost surprised it is snowing as much as it is from PVD to PLY where that band even exists, probably owing to the mid levels smeared NW. For me astride Rt 2, with that fog-snow (yes some aggies ..) But.. this whole structure at mid levels did have a negative elongation as was modeled in the blend so... yeah, they did okay there. All and all, feel pretty satisfied. The last entries last night seem to have verified rather nicely as Weatherwiz and I mentioned... This was slated to be a narrow corridor impactor, hauling ass! You may even be lording over your device or PC in a gray ambiance between noon and 2 pm when suddenly ... forced illumination glows the room. This is an interesting time of year... In the heart of this thing, it's deep winter by appeal. When/if the sun comes out two hours later and the wind stays light, the faux nape warmth that Kevin gets watery-eyed for, along with heated interior of his car ... really does provide two disparate perceptions that he often waxes nostalgic for. We'll see on the latter... The sun angle is climbed enough that a shallow saturation absent lift can evaporate below a weak inversion more effectively than it would in one of those the wood-smoke afternoons of early January. Anyway, we also said that sat and rad can be deceiving. It's interesting that both seemed to work out... The results this morning appear to be a blend about mid way between the high res ... plug pulling toaster party late last night, together with radar looking too neggie and ending up perhaps a little bit farther N... As was evidence(d) by the content dumped into this social media between circa 8pm and midnight ... this thing was a worse performer than what is taking place, while also still being somewhat more compacted S. Interesting