Typhoon Tip

mmm... yes and no on the bold. At least not for me .. It's anecdotal but the last four consecutive springs have been like forced tongue f'ing satan's cold rectal plaque to me. Clear 'till Junes. You'd think that'd correct any expectations ... We've definitely had some freak warmth in February, and back to back in Aprils in there... But, those were not the tempos of the season's they were couched in... Those seasons were horrible. Personal druthers and complete exposure ... I hate snow storms in March? Last year was a donkey-balls tea-bagging that lasted until mid April at that, with countless baseball games in the 30s at the MLB level? Nah, dude... I realize we're just trying to engage in commiserative conjecture here but I don't believe your characterization of 'recent springs' is really true. Those big winters of 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 in the midwest then here, were both taunted with early warmth that faded back into vomit springs. Actually... 2015 was pan bad - I think we gotta go all the way back to 2012 ... and actually 2009 and 2010 were both high hot and hard early ... But, maybe your sort of "delusion hangover" for warmth really stems from that part of the recent 10 years. Tru perhaps ...

I get the humor but actually ... it really hasn't been that below just the same. In fact, of the four tabbed climo sites available on TAN's website, two are modestly positive for May ... much to the chagrin of the beleaguered warm season sufferers, I'm sure. Perception is everything. I really still believe it is the fact that since April 15 or so ...we've been at or near historically high cloudy days ... We've actually been that successful ( relative use of the word... heh) in the measurable precipitation to go along with. Tarmac and I were musing last week that despite that, ...we're not even that much above normal rainfall either. Yep... 20some odd days of delay-wiper counts too... So afternoons are chilly and nights are chilly but, warm compared to average...so the roll-up numbers for the diurnal cycle utterly cheat the sensible justice... It's just shit weather...like period. Nothing else. ...For forty-five f'um days too ... save for Mem day weekend ironically. I think this spring has been an attack more than anything else. Specifically targeting those that want nice, melon days ...with deck fair, the smell of lilacs and grills permeating neighborhood air. It's like there's some great metaphysical force that is targeting those souls for assault. muah hahahaha Seriously, if we could string a 'nough sunnier afternoons even 74 F for a high, that too would still suffice your humor because even that seems only to be in the dreams of a Cell-block H at San Quintin resident ...to be free of this cold pool.

it's good to point that out ... I'd add, because we've had a surplus of mank days at some -10 if not -20 F daily max biases ... whatever in the hell paradigm we shift toward it is reasonable to assume it will be warmer.

also...seeing the operational Euro be such an extreme outlier relative to its EPS mean between D6 and especially out toward the end of the run ... yeah, that range is subject to change anyway - of course. But the idea for a warm look by mid month is not conjured in a vacuum... The EPS mean fits my own thinking - which of course means I give that a nod... ha.. But, I suspect the operation run is full of shit. I think the flow stretches more around the hemisphere - and by that I don't mean long wave lengths.. I mean less deep heights next to tall ridge nodes. And the way that expression from the eastern Pac to south of Greenland will probably not mean a -4 SD super massive black hole S of Nova Scotia on D10 ...

Despite the 00z suite's apparently rolling back/reneging on the earlier 12z's suggestion of extended range pattern change, I still believe there could be a shift lurking. It may come and go over the next few days before it gets more coherent. Granted ... the teleconnectors are losing their correlative value at this time of year, I still believe there is some "vestigial signal" ( it's like listening for Voyager ) there. Particularly when there are now occasional operational version model runs that try and fill the persistent lower Maritime trough. 00z Euro, ... 180 reversed the 12z attempt to do so. Nonetheless, the means is likely in the beginning phases of detecting that change toward normalizing that feature ... Which it probably should anyway. The whole -NAO complex we've suffered... it was put in place because the evacuation of the winter pattern put the hemisphere in sort of a lurch prior to the onset of subtropical ridging concomitant with summer. The AO was like left statically albeit not obviously negative. The girdle of subtropical ridging features haven't really got going yet ... until they do.. the AO is likely to remain neutral neggie, and these blocking regimes are probability favored above the 55th parallel. There's also a causal "chicken vs egg" thing going on with all that, too... Lacking subtropical ridges is another way of saying the flow is lacking longitudinal character - this all probably shows up in the GLAAM as an aside. But which sets off which? The -AO may in fact be the residue in this equation... where something else is pulling the westerlies south and physics then alone creates the blocks. I was just reading a paraphrased article from the HZDR ( German research institute) that found a tidal connection between Jupiter, the Earth, and Venus... which occurs every 11.4 years when their resonance constructively interferes... and this tidally induces magnetic reversals in the top layers of the sun ... Sound familiar? 11 years is the solar cycle - who knows... Maybe ultimately this is all f'n Jovian .. ha That's really all we've been suffering... a -AO spring. If it looks like a duck. Quacks like duck... it's probably a duck. And the GEFs AO has in fact been empirically negative since the ides of March... so it's reasonable to be suspicious of that 'cold signal' as culpable in this lower Maritime trough and N wind bias. I'm sure we'll find around the hemisphere, that there are other -AO correlations being expressed. I noticed Ray has not posted in a quite some time... Understandable - ... but, it really is all his fault. He commiserated that the -NAO would suddenly usurp, and completely butt-violate the spring ... way back in February. Seeing as that is the best prediction he's ever come up with ... we can only do the righteous thing as torch bearing enraged hill people and pull him out for a proper lynching -

I'm interested in a particular climate metric(s) ... namely, global DP and cloud cover. I'm suspicious of cloud polluted warm sectors over eastern U.S. ...as well as DP's in middle latitudes all around the hemisphere being above normal since 2000.

Mishandling the MJO ? ... like the distribution of upper level divergence ?? Heh, seems the GFS does this every May though... I wonder if it mishandles the MJO every May... Actually, it seems to me the GFS ( and GGEM for that matter ) both start curving the isobars cyclonic over the western Caribbean too often beyond 200 hours, regardless of month anywhere between April and early December - you may be right about the MJO but I also wonder if it's just an artifact of those particular physical models way out in time, also. In any case, the prediction is near normal for this year.... They're predicting "two to four" (whatever that means...) majors canes, which presumably mean 6 or so total... and 12 sub cane TCs... blah blah but, these numbers didn't mean shit in 1992

Yeah... yes it is. Regardless of cultural implications relative to 'where' these big clock events have come on shore, the 'when' of them has been really alarming. You know ...I read 10 or 15 years go, papers ...peer reviewed ones, espousing the uptick in mean severity of ISE because of GW ... but, back then, I had counter ( and still do ) theoretical thinking. The antipathy was/is centered around "gradients" Gradient drives ...well, all of reality actually. The difference between here ...and over there... IF it were all the same at all quantum points ubiquitously down to the Plank-length of the space time continuum ..everywhere, nothing would move. There would be no positive vs negative charge ... The would be no curved space, thus ...no gravity... thus, no aggregating mass... no starts, planets ... molecules ...just a soup of inert motionlessness that is for all effective reasons, none existent because it has not effective meaning... That baser principle is what reality is foundation'ed upon ( bare with me... ). You have to think about the weather that way? Warm vs cool. Hot vs cold. Theta-e ( think dewpoint) vs regions with non or surplus compared ... These are all gradients. The are all what gives rise to the actual dynamic action of wind... and clouds and rain and storms ...and the null areas, we call sunny days. Gradient drives everything... Just because we warm the atmosphere due to global warm... that does not concomitantly connote a very intense frequency of storms. You still have to have a heat sink... ( gradient ) capable of ingesting the exhaust from the heat source ( the warming ocean ). I just never read any passages in those early papers that really demonstrated this simple sort of thermodynamic arithmetic was being considered enough. If the the oceans warm... yes, that means additional thermal energy is plausible... but, that energy may not necessarily be accessible ...if say...the couple atmosphere is already holding more moisture than usual from having already adjusted. Also, the tropical sounding is a conditional instability type ..The typical sounding has a dry warm region at mid levels...with warm saturable parcel lifted into it, mixing causes diabatic release which then gives parcel buoyancy ...more so than the negative region of the sounding. It's why you tend to see narrow tall turrets... If that region warms due to balanced latent heat increases, that lowers the instability. In other words, if GW is uniform at multiple levels, ...it's unclear to me how that really effects TS ... And all this frequency could just be normal... However, having said all that... it might be that the warming is outpacing the total atmospheric balance, so ... yeah.. I wonder if there's a temporal window here where we denude islands and punish greedy coastal planners...

So it's in the media today, Michael's hurricane intensity officially being set at category 5 per reanalysis ( I assume to be reanalysis ) ... Here's the thing ...that headline gave me pause for two reasons: Another category five hurricane in the Atlantic basin so soon since the blitzkrieg of a couple years ago ?? But also, what the who the f is Michael? Oh yeah... that one - Man, we've been sooo saturated by these biblical tempests in the last ...well, since Katrina for all intents and purposes, that it's all sort of blending into one contiguous event. A touch of sarcasm to that statement, but... fact of the matter is, you hear the same tape played often enough you sort of automatically start committing less of it to memory. It doesn't have 'as much' shock and awe, it's indelible mark in your memory stops happening. I mean I completely forget Micheal happened... I think ... or suspect rather, that Micheal making landfall where he did ... sparing very dense population circuitry ... helps media extinguish the manic coverage. Not sure... maybe the media industry is looking at the numbers and seeing a fall off in interest due to the same saturation fatigue ...and are letting things go sooner, too - Either way, I almost feel like we should start counting on a strong catty 4 if not 5'er as a perfunctory seasonal result - just a matter of whether it's actually impacting land... much more, land populated by something other than frigates and wind stripped palms

Ha...right - may not be what you were getting at but it reminds me of the whole 'stick a hapless WC reporter out on the end of a pier in a hurricane like we're supposed to be surprised by the wind' phenomenon -

You couldn't pay me to sit in that brick, mortar and iron cauldron for the Red Sox' seasonal opener/ceremonies... Holy hell... I suppose there is some slim chance it clears a bit... I was just noticing on hi res sat imagery ... if one were to be driving west on the Pike ...somewhere near Pittsfield or even a little E of that longitude, the sky abruptly clears.. It's like you drive up in elevations and out of the bowl of cryo vomit submerging the hapless civility fallen victim to SNE's uniquely topographically enforced sewer system of cold drainage.. Might even be some mt top under-casting going on.. But, imagery over the Gulf of Maine exposes and active WSW trajectory is still well-established so it's likely this is a sock -in fisting ... Even if cold, a still wind and sun might make Fenway tolerable ... barring that, no way!

The whole climate-change causality-crisis circuitry is wired by a particular failure in the ballast of most of those walking the Earth. This species has difficulty accepting threat and/or peril ... unless it is directly perceivable via at least one of the five senses. Here's the interesting aspect; it is not really the fault of humans ... All biology responds to sensory input. Global Warming's effective destruction moves too slowly, is too subtle, when moving daily temperatures short decimals, from year to year, means "oh my god!" That sense of urgency is intrinsically incongruous with lacking perception of threat. Gives rise to a catch-22; because it is precisely an immediate response,to a threat they cannot readily perceive, that is necessary. By the time GW-related climate change is palpable to the senses in that way ... you're dying from the apocalypse. "Oh, seems GW was re -" ...death gasp. gone. Simply put... tell someone to get off the train tracks ...they may take a few moments to look around, eventually stepping off... maybe not. That same person sees the train? They dive off those track... with the lithe dexterity of a paratrooper! Speaking with Professors at MIT and BU ... the consensus among peers is that this problem is as much a sociological one as it is chemical. It's a functional conclusion that bears both intuition as well as an explanation that fits empirical data.

What's her name?

I was just ruminating back to 1998 ... 21 years ago - seems sort of weird when you say it that way. But, March 29, 30 and 31st of that year were 89 to 91 F each afternoon. This thing? Today? Seems like shaving pubic hairs around here getting a day like today on March 30 - that musta been one hellluva fantastic anomaly back in the day... Considering it's been 21 years with no return ... the rate is 0. Speak volumes

Yeah we surged to 63 here up along the rt poopie ... It was 44 1.5 hours ago - That's the shallow bd air mass washing out for us there!

yeheah... like, stealin' a nice day out of this mess - the atmospheric equivalency to 'chicken salad out outta chicken shit'

Oh yeah dude... Deer? heh... they snort bird seed like 'coke -

we warned everyone days ago ... still, tomorrow could end up better than modeled ... sometimes SW warm sectored air can surprisingly clear out

It almost seems like ...just eye-ballin' those seasonal snow numbers, the heaviest water-shed run-off may be on the NW sides of the topographic divide ...

Good day for faux warm appeal... Walk outta your house on the south side of the edifice ... where the wind is all but completely sheltered and you'd swear it's 72 .. 44

Solid air mass performance considering the sky could not be any more clear if it were on the moon

Part of that also is that we still have a velocity surplus issue in the atmosphere ... ( 'swear, some upstart grad student needs to flash an insight and release a rock-star catapulting paper the demos how GW is causing this to happen...) and fronts always seem to end up ahead of mid range schedule because of the stretching that is concomitant with fast flow - whether related to the parenthetical sarcasm or not, that's been something I've noticed... Anyway, could see Saturday end up more polluted with 68/57 and warm mist and sun splash intervals ( faux subtropical) before strong polar front clears house. Friday may be +3 C at 850 and super adiabatically annihilating the BL thickness to over achieve if that light wind high sun angle and lower cloud due to still lower RH all plays out. As far as the season... no, ... not by tenor to date, or climatology in the first place, combined. Those two factors/2 = whatever you want ... plan on being ass rammed, cuz that's been the most correlated result since the Novie snow/cold deliberately set the region up for that assault ... Seriously, you could couch the whole question/debate of 'can it snow again' under the heading of 'not impossible until May 22nd,' which I've seen noodles in Waltham on that day back in 2003... I've seen snow showers to a slushy inch on Boston Commons on May 20th in 2002... Of course there's, 1977,... 1987... blah blah blah. Some years ..yeah, you just sort of sense in the gestalt of the times it won't allow it and you're season is wrapped up with no hope or chances by the end of February - 2009 leaps to mind with nearly full green-up by April 10 that year (something I'd never seen before or since...). This year will detest warm enthusiasts while simultaneously leaving a taste of shit in the mouth of snow lovers -

Also, if using the Euro ... the day before might end up the warmest day, too.. Keeping ur concepts in mind, that day the flow appears more veered slightly ...should the warm boundary/related clouds not interfere ... I've seen that in the past where the day before ends up the warmest. ...sort of changing the subject from Saturday, to the warm generality.

MOS is putting up 63 to 68 numbers for Saturday pan-wide across SNE sites ... The idea to keep in mind with MOS for those that look(ed) at it, those values are more weighted by climate the further out in time. Therefore, the 66 type numbers put up for Saturday ... day five, are some 14 over climatology average of just 52. That may not just be a mild day at this time of year, because the signal is strong enough to rise above said weighting... That said ... as is also concomitant with this time of year... a warm frontal placement can bust a high temperature by some 30 F or more.... I've seen it be 44 at BVY while it's 77 at HFD ... because a warm front slammed to a halt shy of Worcester. One could probably see their dash therm jump from 49 to 68 all at once driving west on the Pike out there over the span of just a few miles. Right now the synopsis has a broad warm front extending from somewhere near ORD to PWM ... That's precarious at this time of year. But, the models have unilaterally been consistent with that fragile set up succeeding so we'll see... Thickness up to 554 dm with 850 mb T's 7 to 10C while lazy flags wobble from SW zephyrs propably gets to to 74 actually at Springfield if those parameters succeed into the region and there is sufficient sun.