Typhoon Tip

This may not be a bad assessment based upon the trend since the year 2000 ... Of that ~ 239 months... > 50 % have registered cooler mean temperatures all over southeast Canada and adjust NE U.S., compared to the rest of the globe's on-going back ground warming curve. Therefore, if trend/persistence can be used as any proxy ( which does of course carry some risk ...) odds would seem to favor we'll find a way to do the same this particular June. If one is trying/bucking for a cooler result, it's not a bad place to start having most of your months seemingly pre-ordained to be less than whatever it is going on all around you

Global warming predictions ... from refereed/peer reviewal sources and machines based- environmental problem solving/modeling would not agree with that assessment ...at all. One could certainly flip a coin any given season at hand, as there are less than perennial, intra-seasonal factors ... that can/will at times offset, but scaling the equations, the longer termed solution thermodynamically instructs higher theta-e content will take place in any gaseous medium *aka* the atmosphere, that is thermaldynamically preconditioned to store heat. These are basic thermal dynamics concepts/laws in play. Thus, observing increasing ambient atmosphere water vapor follows logically. however,... before even relying upon those research sources - might wanna rethink that line of sight

actually busted too cold here... It's been an iffy weekend with the smoke contamination ... we've had some insolation stolen -

Well ...there's obviously some subversive troll tactics by some users peppered across recent pages... People don't like summer... and will 'ruin' it for those that do at least excuse imaginable. haha! it's all good... Be that as it may, there are still signs the pattern is slated toward a warmer one toward week two. This has been in the GEFs teleconnectors in a slow trend, and also ... nestled in the suggestive tenor of the operational vacillations et al. These "cues" were not really prevalent in previous weeks...and probably do more at herald a pattern change. The EPS has always been flatter and less invasive into the lower Maritimes with that beady-eyed obsession the Euro has in its extended... which frankly, on this 12z cycle seems to even violate large synoptic wave mechanics in pinning that feature into that region with no over-arcing geographic higher heights.... and a full latitude trough pressing into the Rockies... That flow should be lifting more N through Maine. It does...but waits too long to do so... I feel it's more likely this pattern plays particularly tempting into the Euros native bias for too much vertical trough depth/ridge heights in that range and that's really what we are seeing that. I'd recommend toning down that Maritime trough D 8 ish... and also toning down the ridge height/heat it has on D10 ... A flatter overall adjustment to those features actually is a reasonable fit for the bevy of mass-field balancing/tele's I've seen... Of course, we have to keep in mind that a 'new' pattern comes with some uncertainty...

Interesting choice of words for your context here... There cultural vernacular I've ever been exposed to ... "ole fashioned summer" always meant more in the way of torridity. That's the typical trope in literature and lore ... and nostalgic memory. interesting...

gotta sans the elevation bro' It's 75 down here in the Merrimack Valley so decks are dandy. Can't help ya with 'Squitoes though... We got helicopters down here this year - jesus in fact worse than recent years too. Not sure what's up but merely keying the front door to the house at dusk and they're brazen enough to go for knuckle juice... And they really are huge too -

mmm.. not really the right read but okay - well correction: you mean "sustained" heat, but what does that mean? Ha, for me it means NOT 55 with drizzle... But, it's still a significantly warmer run over all and indicative of a pattern trying to change - which I believe should the more important take away. Therein, ...we don't fairly know how warm or what emerges as it's uncharted water so to speak. The EPS is 12z mean continues to amplify the ridge longitude and latitude as was suspected it would yesterday. So much so that it's stranded this Euro run on a complete island in that time range, ... making its uber deep Maritime trough that extend almost to Bermuda island's latitude very suspect - there's that too.. I don't see how the GEFs 00z mean and the EPS 12z mean can co-exist... Quite probably all just typical noise in pattern change -

To be fair ... the outlook/idea I pushed across the last couple of days, re bona fide pattern change, was predicated NOT on what the 00z GEFs decided to do. Out of nowhere, they start sagging off the NAO anew out there toward week two. Yeah... it's not impossible ... sometimes these pattern changes come in a bit earlier in the runs than in reality. It's like there's some detection in the variable values ... decimal-augmented in the physical equations, so shouldn't be ignored but 'when' becomes secondarily variable. Or, it's a bullshit mean and it will return to the previous dynamic...that too. The other aspect, it could be more of an eastern limb anomaly distribution... in which case, the wave spacing of summer would tend make that less a cooling larger synoptic factor for eastern N/A. Fun stuff... Not big hail and wall clouds and high heat or whatever...but some stuff to check out for fun.

ah I haven't looked very closely at it... But yeah, just off the top of the head, that's a robust negative anomaly boring its way through the field, with equally impressive acceleration in the mid levels toward the end of day ... I just remember that from scanning/clicking through the 00z charts. Although 12z GFS continues that look - Don't need a lot of classical SB CAPE this, that and so forth **if** the mlv lapse rates get very steep ...collocated with jet entrance, can make things work - it's not atypical for how we get it done in this part of the country. Different sort of sounding ... windy bowers and stuff.

Didn't we just post all that information In any case, ...I wonder if NWS MOS' machinery takes into consideration the albedo of smoke in the atmosphere. There's probably some threshold where absorption vs reflection ...where it's ability to impeded solar insolation effects day-time heating, one would think -

.... Well, if the ensuing pattern plays out accordingly ... we should be seeing more standard seasonal cold frontal events .... Those with NW flow behind them... transporting 'seasonal cool' followed by a warm air and humidity transports a day ...day and half later, all as opposed to heralding in three days of Labradorian mist/ utter convection damping.. It's no wonder why our "severe season" is in June... Otherwise, we don't get shit from N flows out of 50/50 cut offs that struggle to warm sector in damming. As an aside, I'll tell you... our plight was underscored by watching three consecutive days of severe convection railroad New Jersey while we were "soothed" by 55 F nape mist... It was like setting up a stage for prisoners at Auschwitz concentration camp, featuring a show about people eating turkey sandwiches. It's weird ... how the atmosphere is so torturously reminding us that "fairness" is a human conceit and does not actually exist in reality - reality is but an illusion of how we see right and wrong, up and down, .. left and right... all of which is purely contrivance of mutually agreed upon perspectives, that are only agreed upon because from one human being to the next ... we all share 100% < .000000000001% of the same genetic brain. But I digress... We should be in line for more standard frontal passages once we rid our selves of Monday's ... one last smack in the face trough anomaly.

Interesting ... ( https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/land/hms.html ) Over the last several weeks of our plaguing pattern ...I've noted at times some nearing freakish warm anomalies wobbling around the 850 mb charts over the NW Territories, concomitant ( perhaps ) with deeper layer tropospheric ridge nodal persistence over those regions of NW Canada. Now this below... We can see the muted blue complexion of our "sunny" day out there, and satellite ( https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=continental-conus-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined ) clearly shows a smoke footprint aligning nearly collocated with this product provided by the site above. ...It's interesting from a sort-of "predictive environment" to assess the warm pattern as plausibly causal/related to the outbreak of the wild fires up in western/NW Canada. Also... I wonder if these smoke plumes are sufficient to knock a couple ticks off our high temperatures?

Yup.. June may feature regions of frontal-genesis/frontalysis and migration points that are overall similar ( though I don't believe we see as many "50/50" low deals ) ... but just doing all that some 15 dm warmer in thicknesses everywhere ...particularly notable on polarward side of boundaries/airmasses.. One is undoubtedly loading up their wise-acre nimrod series 2019 snark cannon with "you mean June is warmer than May..." but don't bother. We're talking about a different pattern regardless of time of year. But I also... we do play with the potential of the models "fighting" the onsetting signal - I'm not sure that's a real mathematical phenomenon or not, but it does seem at times like there is a blurring period when modes are in flux ...where the models try to play both realities concurrently ... Whatever the cause, that's a palpable observation to me. I wonder if this could in fact all break more longitudinal/subtropical ridgy ... Also, folks that care about this tedium and understanding the synoptics .. ( ha, wow we exist, huh?) ... there is a difference between WAR and other heat sources... Continental midriff heat is definitive compared to WAR nosing in from the Atlantic and perpetuating theta-e rich conveyor around the arc. One produces more of the 87-91/74 type stuff ... or tends to. The other is the one that tends to import EMLs/ SW 850 mb heat charged 24C slabs of dragon fart air... Your "big heat" numbers can come from "Bermuda ridge"/WARing, ... but not likely that your biggest numbers will come from that source. The 101 rareness is almost always a Sonoran ejection... I have seen WAR patterns that got infused with SW plateau air ...but that's also an obfuscating rarity.

heh.. anyway, could be some grapple/noodles bouncing around on elevation car-tops with that. I'm generally un-impressed by mountain top cold gawk but in June? Heh, ... we're not like up at 10,000 feat with summit shenanigans like in the Rockies... I do think mountain weather is fascinating for its changeability though. A friend of mine was up around 10 K or higher ...some touristy lodge west of Boulder CO, where you could drive to then day hike elevations out there. He was telling me about a thunder clap over his shoulder while the sun was shining brightly ...the temp was low 60s or so.. There was a sneaky tower like right there along side the summit ... the structure drifted in and over the course of five minutes they went from light rain, to heavy rain and hail, to heavy snow, to lighter grapple, to light rain with occasional thunder claps..then the sun came back out and the temp was right back up into the low 60s in short order. You get the impression ... that type of elevation is like being half way up a cumulonimbus head...right around where the wet-bulb freezing level is...

That 18 to 24 hour cold shot on Monday offered up by the GFS ( and/or any other models doing similarly ) reminds me of that scene in "Airplane," ...where Leslie Neilsen's character is repeatedly smacking a panic stricken female passenger to 'get her under control,' when some other steward or passenger says, "Captain! Captain! You're needed in the cockpit..." He moves as though to hurriedly acknowledge, but then hesitates ... steps back just to smack her face one last time, before slipping off the scene.

You're right? But overall the evolution out beyond D5(ish) across this run is morphing the pattern - for seasonal druthers ... reasons to be optimistic. Clearly a different hemispheric structure/evolution underway comparing the last 30 to 45 days. I had mentioned this the last couple of days and I see this run ( and the others for that matter) as continuing along the zygote trend to fill the vertical component of trough depths in general. I hate to say .. but it's very typical of dying phase 2 MJO, which is modeled ... but ... given to the time of year, it's interesting whether wave dispersion mechanics are that enforcing or if this is just all coincidental.. I don't even think that look (above) per se is all that bad though. That trough is transient for one... it's plumbed about to it's greatest latitude and there aren't identifiable over-arcing large synoptic spacing issues that suggest it cuts off and locks down there like recent repeating gyre placements. Plus, the entire NAO domain space is positive over the western limb - another indicative signal of impending pattern change. Also, not for not but D10 Euro's tend to over amplify features between 60 and 90W at mid latitudes ... If one observes the flow structure from eastern Ontario to NF on D8...it's hard to identify exactly why the Euro suddenly takes a two-day flattening trend and reverses the wave signature and curves the flow so dramatically like that ... when it's up to that amplitude bias it likes to tail off it's latter run cycles with ...typically it looks like that behavior. It's a subtle bias but the objective observer knows to account for that in either warm(cool) pattern orientations. It's just me, but that's a snap shot of a pattern that's changed - granted... you're not arguing that, but just the same ... that pattern changes into one where doesn't have nearly the same implications ( or even confidence ) for cold vomit. As is, that D10 ( silly I know...) isn't 52 with mank. In fact, the 850s being so warm like that under tall June sun, it'd be pretty damn warm through about 18z in the interior before the ocean breeze cuts in. It's like.. that's a BD look in a warm pattern as opposed to a BD look in a cool one... I'll take that.

It's coming... this is going to grow in time - trust me

mmm... yes and no on the bold. At least not for me .. It's anecdotal but the last four consecutive springs have been like forced tongue f'ing satan's cold rectal plaque to me. Clear 'till Junes. You'd think that'd correct any expectations ... We've definitely had some freak warmth in February, and back to back in Aprils in there... But, those were not the tempos of the season's they were couched in... Those seasons were horrible. Personal druthers and complete exposure ... I hate snow storms in March? Last year was a donkey-balls tea-bagging that lasted until mid April at that, with countless baseball games in the 30s at the MLB level? Nah, dude... I realize we're just trying to engage in commiserative conjecture here but I don't believe your characterization of 'recent springs' is really true. Those big winters of 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 in the midwest then here, were both taunted with early warmth that faded back into vomit springs. Actually... 2015 was pan bad - I think we gotta go all the way back to 2012 ... and actually 2009 and 2010 were both high hot and hard early ... But, maybe your sort of "delusion hangover" for warmth really stems from that part of the recent 10 years. Tru perhaps ...

I get the humor but actually ... it really hasn't been that below just the same. In fact, of the four tabbed climo sites available on TAN's website, two are modestly positive for May ... much to the chagrin of the beleaguered warm season sufferers, I'm sure. Perception is everything. I really still believe it is the fact that since April 15 or so ...we've been at or near historically high cloudy days ... We've actually been that successful ( relative use of the word... heh) in the measurable precipitation to go along with. Tarmac and I were musing last week that despite that, ...we're not even that much above normal rainfall either. Yep... 20some odd days of delay-wiper counts too... So afternoons are chilly and nights are chilly but, warm compared to average...so the roll-up numbers for the diurnal cycle utterly cheat the sensible justice... It's just shit weather...like period. Nothing else. ...For forty-five f'um days too ... save for Mem day weekend ironically. I think this spring has been an attack more than anything else. Specifically targeting those that want nice, melon days ...with deck fair, the smell of lilacs and grills permeating neighborhood air. It's like there's some great metaphysical force that is targeting those souls for assault. muah hahahaha Seriously, if we could string a 'nough sunnier afternoons even 74 F for a high, that too would still suffice your humor because even that seems only to be in the dreams of a Cell-block H at San Quintin resident ...to be free of this cold pool.

it's good to point that out ... I'd add, because we've had a surplus of mank days at some -10 if not -20 F daily max biases ... whatever in the hell paradigm we shift toward it is reasonable to assume it will be warmer.

also...seeing the operational Euro be such an extreme outlier relative to its EPS mean between D6 and especially out toward the end of the run ... yeah, that range is subject to change anyway - of course. But the idea for a warm look by mid month is not conjured in a vacuum... The EPS mean fits my own thinking - which of course means I give that a nod... ha.. But, I suspect the operation run is full of shit. I think the flow stretches more around the hemisphere - and by that I don't mean long wave lengths.. I mean less deep heights next to tall ridge nodes. And the way that expression from the eastern Pac to south of Greenland will probably not mean a -4 SD super massive black hole S of Nova Scotia on D10 ...

Despite the 00z suite's apparently rolling back/reneging on the earlier 12z's suggestion of extended range pattern change, I still believe there could be a shift lurking. It may come and go over the next few days before it gets more coherent. Granted ... the teleconnectors are losing their correlative value at this time of year, I still believe there is some "vestigial signal" ( it's like listening for Voyager ) there. Particularly when there are now occasional operational version model runs that try and fill the persistent lower Maritime trough. 00z Euro, ... 180 reversed the 12z attempt to do so. Nonetheless, the means is likely in the beginning phases of detecting that change toward normalizing that feature ... Which it probably should anyway. The whole -NAO complex we've suffered... it was put in place because the evacuation of the winter pattern put the hemisphere in sort of a lurch prior to the onset of subtropical ridging concomitant with summer. The AO was like left statically albeit not obviously negative. The girdle of subtropical ridging features haven't really got going yet ... until they do.. the AO is likely to remain neutral neggie, and these blocking regimes are probability favored above the 55th parallel. There's also a causal "chicken vs egg" thing going on with all that, too... Lacking subtropical ridges is another way of saying the flow is lacking longitudinal character - this all probably shows up in the GLAAM as an aside. But which sets off which? The -AO may in fact be the residue in this equation... where something else is pulling the westerlies south and physics then alone creates the blocks. I was just reading a paraphrased article from the HZDR ( German research institute) that found a tidal connection between Jupiter, the Earth, and Venus... which occurs every 11.4 years when their resonance constructively interferes... and this tidally induces magnetic reversals in the top layers of the sun ... Sound familiar? 11 years is the solar cycle - who knows... Maybe ultimately this is all f'n Jovian .. ha That's really all we've been suffering... a -AO spring. If it looks like a duck. Quacks like duck... it's probably a duck. And the GEFs AO has in fact been empirically negative since the ides of March... so it's reasonable to be suspicious of that 'cold signal' as culpable in this lower Maritime trough and N wind bias. I'm sure we'll find around the hemisphere, that there are other -AO correlations being expressed. I noticed Ray has not posted in a quite some time... Understandable - ... but, it really is all his fault. He commiserated that the -NAO would suddenly usurp, and completely butt-violate the spring ... way back in February. Seeing as that is the best prediction he's ever come up with ... we can only do the righteous thing as torch bearing enraged hill people and pull him out for a proper lynching -

I'm interested in a particular climate metric(s) ... namely, global DP and cloud cover. I'm suspicious of cloud polluted warm sectors over eastern U.S. ...as well as DP's in middle latitudes all around the hemisphere being above normal since 2000.

Mishandling the MJO ? ... like the distribution of upper level divergence ?? Heh, seems the GFS does this every May though... I wonder if it mishandles the MJO every May... Actually, it seems to me the GFS ( and GGEM for that matter ) both start curving the isobars cyclonic over the western Caribbean too often beyond 200 hours, regardless of month anywhere between April and early December - you may be right about the MJO but I also wonder if it's just an artifact of those particular physical models way out in time, also. In any case, the prediction is near normal for this year.... They're predicting "two to four" (whatever that means...) majors canes, which presumably mean 6 or so total... and 12 sub cane TCs... blah blah but, these numbers didn't mean shit in 1992