Typhoon Tip

Ultimately ...it doesn't matter. My own hypocrisy is that I'm less aware of it myself ...oh, circa Novie 1 through about Mar 10 ... I like big winters like the best of 'em and I don't really 'want' to read about 90 F days when I'm formulating coastal bombs out of teleconnections that are hitting it hard, while the operatinonal runs aren't yet supporting and trying to demo forecast philosophies for others and instead encounter a seemingly oddly strategically timed antithetic content ... And I've noticed the frequency upticks...like flies buzzing off a disturbed dog turd, right around the time one has posted an impertinent gesture of daring to mention warm air in late May.. Ha... oy. I'm probably naively thinking my readers are either objective ... or reading. Then, the former becomes a 'troll- like' opposing distraction to that over all effort, whether intended to or not. 'Hate' is too strong though. Just umbrage at times. There's a transparency to it all ... exposes one as really just servicing their own therapy ... I have better things to do than be ignored in those times, and or serve as someone's wailing wall either way. But ...it's a choice. One can do something else Also, a goodly part of my assholier-than-thou thing is that I'm just bustin' balls much of the time, btw. No-one is getting any taps on the shoulder for their contribution on the Internet ... that's an earlier shock-and-awe societal adjustment to the advent of the technology that has come and gone. It's just old hat, simply put. Familiarization of social-medias-spheric opining is nothing new. Countless forums have issue fatigued everyone and ad nauseam ... ranging in too many special interest groups than is ultimately very healthy for society already showing signs of fracturing0 by schismatic ideologies...etc, etc... The internet is, most probably, related to why some of that is happening. Anyway, so people don't really care to distill facts from fiction, intellectual talent from rube-ology ... You write the original "To Kill A Mockingbird" transcript and foist it onto the internet and you'd only get "tl;dr"

I'd be happy. I'd take Schadenfreude. I mean ... just knowing that some avatar with the word "snow" couched in it, is suffering no snow. I wouldn't otherwise. In fact, I might even be sympathetic to their season-lorn sorrow. But these same critters, they skulk about the social media of weather... consummately timing their reminders for us all that it's chilly ... just when the models are trying to change the pattern warm. It's that antic, right precisely there that's off-putting. Some do it to troll... for fun..whatever. Some, engage in that because they really have some odd deeper hangup that's keyed into a psyche averse to summer - and we become unwitting buffers for their grief. Either way..no thanks. Every time they do that in the fantasy poetic justice realm, they get docked a 4-6" er (yes I'm aware there's a carnal joke there...)

It's a good thing there is no poetic justice in the 'emoto-guided' weather hobbyist's intents and purposes... Cuz no winter would be the just deserts.

MOS numbers in the low 70s down this way ... Couldn't be more satisfied with this air mass as it's been thoroughly cleansed of smoke contamination. No cloud, June sun, lower humidities... and not cold ... Not really even cool - though yes... when the sun goes down, the dusky air may homage an autumnal appeal. This is a like an etch-n-sketch swipe - for those of us of older generations that know what those are. In this case, we set the stage for synoptic differences. Namely, the 850 mb thermal layout is warmer out there as a canvas ... panning the entire lower Canadian provinces and throughout any of our source regions, much more obviously so than at any other prior evaluation cycle this fledgling warm season. That said, the hemisphere circulation is still, for whatever reason... locked into an inordinately meridional tendency. Even when the combined ensemble mean(s) numerically calculate the tele's as neutral or even positive, this doesn't seem to reflect very well in the dailies of the operational versions, nor those particular individual means within themselves either. I still wonder if/when there is and en masse correction where the two align, but is yet to do so. But here's the thing... despite that, the Euro ( for example ) really doesn't descend the 850 mb much below +10 C throughout its mid and extended range; that, despite the -1 or -2 SD, 500 mb ginormous lower Maritime gyre that still ( imho ) seems to defy large -scaled physical/synoptic arguments ... Be that as it may, seein' as I don't run Navier/Stokes corrective algorithms in my mind so be it. The 00z GFS and some recent runs of the parallel ( FV3') were more agreeable in that regard but whatever. The same circulation synoptically, but a warmer variation of it. That's the mean of the models ... I don't like that either. It seems the hemisphere is in limbo ... We really shouldn't be generating those 500 mb gradients in the geopotential, with 4 or 5 contoured hornet sting upper vortexes that envelop massive geographical expanses. It's interesting that the models are gutting the cold and warming the lower troposphere underneath all that.

This batch of overly warned convection appears to be warm frontal ...Counter intuitive but these cluster do run along warm fronts ..There's a distinct cfropa related linear complex over eastern NY we'll have to contend with ...probably in some diminished form later on given our short-bus convective climate ... Sucks too... just clipped me here at this end of Rt 2... Not five miles S of me the outflow terms and I'm sure it's still near 80 ... I was lookin forward to an evening in open toed shoes, shorts and casual polo ..now it's back to jeans and long sleeve shirt. it's still winter... I'll let you know when the season finally's changed ... rat stinker

If you're on the N-E side of this diffused warm front... you're miserable. If you're on the S-W side, you're in early summer conditions. Those are your two "support group" discussion perspectives... I'm at 79/64 here with coherently different 'smell' to the air, indicative of having succeeded said boundary. This is two hours ago... judging by sat/Davis' obs in the area...it's probably meandered up near MHT or so just guessing...

yeah... despite the GFS, I suspect the same. warmer in general. I like the EPS for now, oscillatory between seasonal warmth/thunder truncated by seasonal cool fronts.

Well hell... complete reversal in the NAO domain handling via the GFS' operational/ overnight. Not sure I buy it, though. For one, it's ensemble mean went the other direction - both the CDC and CPC have the NAO even more positive day's four through twelve-ish. Operational must be a complete outlier if those agency numbers are correct. Over decades in this business, pattern changes can do this at times in individual ensemble members - in this case ... the operational version. Suddenly, regression stonewalls the change like an obdurate Trump supporter. The Euro operational actually broke a bit toward what I was mentioning yesterday ... a bit less troughing intrusion backing/carving S/SW out of the D7/8 Maritime gyre, as well... somewhat less ridging over the Lakes while doing so... Basically, just a less amped variation in both features. No wonder really ... replacing an extended range illustration with something closer to climate isn't a bad recourse, no. The EPS mean has meanwhile morphed into a more progressive period of time overall from D6-10 so... Either way... the pattern is still slated to change, despite the GFS. Who knows exactly what that will be, but it should be warmer in general. Maybe it'll be a temperate form, oscillatory between seasonal warmth/thunder truncated by seasonal cfropas... Gotta say, personal druthers? That's an outstanding improvement. Anything is better than ruining outdoor time with 25 out of 37 days of clouds and measurable. Again, a misery that's sort of underscored in how the actual 'in bucket' amounts are not even that anomalous. We're like regionally less than 2" above normal since January... No, this has been a target face smack spring.

This may not be a bad assessment based upon the trend since the year 2000 ... Of that ~ 239 months... > 50 % have registered cooler mean temperatures all over southeast Canada and adjust NE U.S., compared to the rest of the globe's on-going back ground warming curve. Therefore, if trend/persistence can be used as any proxy ( which does of course carry some risk ...) odds would seem to favor we'll find a way to do the same this particular June. If one is trying/bucking for a cooler result, it's not a bad place to start having most of your months seemingly pre-ordained to be less than whatever it is going on all around you

Global warming predictions ... from refereed/peer reviewal sources and machines based- environmental problem solving/modeling would not agree with that assessment ...at all. One could certainly flip a coin any given season at hand, as there are less than perennial, intra-seasonal factors ... that can/will at times offset, but scaling the equations, the longer termed solution thermodynamically instructs higher theta-e content will take place in any gaseous medium *aka* the atmosphere, that is thermaldynamically preconditioned to store heat. These are basic thermal dynamics concepts/laws in play. Thus, observing increasing ambient atmosphere water vapor follows logically. however,... before even relying upon those research sources - might wanna rethink that line of sight

actually busted too cold here... It's been an iffy weekend with the smoke contamination ... we've had some insolation stolen -

Well ...there's obviously some subversive troll tactics by some users peppered across recent pages... People don't like summer... and will 'ruin' it for those that do at least excuse imaginable. haha! it's all good... Be that as it may, there are still signs the pattern is slated toward a warmer one toward week two. This has been in the GEFs teleconnectors in a slow trend, and also ... nestled in the suggestive tenor of the operational vacillations et al. These "cues" were not really prevalent in previous weeks...and probably do more at herald a pattern change. The EPS has always been flatter and less invasive into the lower Maritimes with that beady-eyed obsession the Euro has in its extended... which frankly, on this 12z cycle seems to even violate large synoptic wave mechanics in pinning that feature into that region with no over-arcing geographic higher heights.... and a full latitude trough pressing into the Rockies... That flow should be lifting more N through Maine. It does...but waits too long to do so... I feel it's more likely this pattern plays particularly tempting into the Euros native bias for too much vertical trough depth/ridge heights in that range and that's really what we are seeing that. I'd recommend toning down that Maritime trough D 8 ish... and also toning down the ridge height/heat it has on D10 ... A flatter overall adjustment to those features actually is a reasonable fit for the bevy of mass-field balancing/tele's I've seen... Of course, we have to keep in mind that a 'new' pattern comes with some uncertainty...

Interesting choice of words for your context here... There cultural vernacular I've ever been exposed to ... "ole fashioned summer" always meant more in the way of torridity. That's the typical trope in literature and lore ... and nostalgic memory. interesting...

gotta sans the elevation bro' It's 75 down here in the Merrimack Valley so decks are dandy. Can't help ya with 'Squitoes though... We got helicopters down here this year - jesus in fact worse than recent years too. Not sure what's up but merely keying the front door to the house at dusk and they're brazen enough to go for knuckle juice... And they really are huge too -

mmm.. not really the right read but okay - well correction: you mean "sustained" heat, but what does that mean? Ha, for me it means NOT 55 with drizzle... But, it's still a significantly warmer run over all and indicative of a pattern trying to change - which I believe should the more important take away. Therein, ...we don't fairly know how warm or what emerges as it's uncharted water so to speak. The EPS is 12z mean continues to amplify the ridge longitude and latitude as was suspected it would yesterday. So much so that it's stranded this Euro run on a complete island in that time range, ... making its uber deep Maritime trough that extend almost to Bermuda island's latitude very suspect - there's that too.. I don't see how the GEFs 00z mean and the EPS 12z mean can co-exist... Quite probably all just typical noise in pattern change -

To be fair ... the outlook/idea I pushed across the last couple of days, re bona fide pattern change, was predicated NOT on what the 00z GEFs decided to do. Out of nowhere, they start sagging off the NAO anew out there toward week two. Yeah... it's not impossible ... sometimes these pattern changes come in a bit earlier in the runs than in reality. It's like there's some detection in the variable values ... decimal-augmented in the physical equations, so shouldn't be ignored but 'when' becomes secondarily variable. Or, it's a bullshit mean and it will return to the previous dynamic...that too. The other aspect, it could be more of an eastern limb anomaly distribution... in which case, the wave spacing of summer would tend make that less a cooling larger synoptic factor for eastern N/A. Fun stuff... Not big hail and wall clouds and high heat or whatever...but some stuff to check out for fun.

ah I haven't looked very closely at it... But yeah, just off the top of the head, that's a robust negative anomaly boring its way through the field, with equally impressive acceleration in the mid levels toward the end of day ... I just remember that from scanning/clicking through the 00z charts. Although 12z GFS continues that look - Don't need a lot of classical SB CAPE this, that and so forth **if** the mlv lapse rates get very steep ...collocated with jet entrance, can make things work - it's not atypical for how we get it done in this part of the country. Different sort of sounding ... windy bowers and stuff.

Didn't we just post all that information In any case, ...I wonder if NWS MOS' machinery takes into consideration the albedo of smoke in the atmosphere. There's probably some threshold where absorption vs reflection ...where it's ability to impeded solar insolation effects day-time heating, one would think -

.... Well, if the ensuing pattern plays out accordingly ... we should be seeing more standard seasonal cold frontal events .... Those with NW flow behind them... transporting 'seasonal cool' followed by a warm air and humidity transports a day ...day and half later, all as opposed to heralding in three days of Labradorian mist/ utter convection damping.. It's no wonder why our "severe season" is in June... Otherwise, we don't get shit from N flows out of 50/50 cut offs that struggle to warm sector in damming. As an aside, I'll tell you... our plight was underscored by watching three consecutive days of severe convection railroad New Jersey while we were "soothed" by 55 F nape mist... It was like setting up a stage for prisoners at Auschwitz concentration camp, featuring a show about people eating turkey sandwiches. It's weird ... how the atmosphere is so torturously reminding us that "fairness" is a human conceit and does not actually exist in reality - reality is but an illusion of how we see right and wrong, up and down, .. left and right... all of which is purely contrivance of mutually agreed upon perspectives, that are only agreed upon because from one human being to the next ... we all share 100% < .000000000001% of the same genetic brain. But I digress... We should be in line for more standard frontal passages once we rid our selves of Monday's ... one last smack in the face trough anomaly.

Interesting ... ( https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/land/hms.html ) Over the last several weeks of our plaguing pattern ...I've noted at times some nearing freakish warm anomalies wobbling around the 850 mb charts over the NW Territories, concomitant ( perhaps ) with deeper layer tropospheric ridge nodal persistence over those regions of NW Canada. Now this below... We can see the muted blue complexion of our "sunny" day out there, and satellite ( https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=continental-conus-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined ) clearly shows a smoke footprint aligning nearly collocated with this product provided by the site above. ...It's interesting from a sort-of "predictive environment" to assess the warm pattern as plausibly causal/related to the outbreak of the wild fires up in western/NW Canada. Also... I wonder if these smoke plumes are sufficient to knock a couple ticks off our high temperatures?

Yup.. June may feature regions of frontal-genesis/frontalysis and migration points that are overall similar ( though I don't believe we see as many "50/50" low deals ) ... but just doing all that some 15 dm warmer in thicknesses everywhere ...particularly notable on polarward side of boundaries/airmasses.. One is undoubtedly loading up their wise-acre nimrod series 2019 snark cannon with "you mean June is warmer than May..." but don't bother. We're talking about a different pattern regardless of time of year. But I also... we do play with the potential of the models "fighting" the onsetting signal - I'm not sure that's a real mathematical phenomenon or not, but it does seem at times like there is a blurring period when modes are in flux ...where the models try to play both realities concurrently ... Whatever the cause, that's a palpable observation to me. I wonder if this could in fact all break more longitudinal/subtropical ridgy ... Also, folks that care about this tedium and understanding the synoptics .. ( ha, wow we exist, huh?) ... there is a difference between WAR and other heat sources... Continental midriff heat is definitive compared to WAR nosing in from the Atlantic and perpetuating theta-e rich conveyor around the arc. One produces more of the 87-91/74 type stuff ... or tends to. The other is the one that tends to import EMLs/ SW 850 mb heat charged 24C slabs of dragon fart air... Your "big heat" numbers can come from "Bermuda ridge"/WARing, ... but not likely that your biggest numbers will come from that source. The 101 rareness is almost always a Sonoran ejection... I have seen WAR patterns that got infused with SW plateau air ...but that's also an obfuscating rarity.

heh.. anyway, could be some grapple/noodles bouncing around on elevation car-tops with that. I'm generally un-impressed by mountain top cold gawk but in June? Heh, ... we're not like up at 10,000 feat with summit shenanigans like in the Rockies... I do think mountain weather is fascinating for its changeability though. A friend of mine was up around 10 K or higher ...some touristy lodge west of Boulder CO, where you could drive to then day hike elevations out there. He was telling me about a thunder clap over his shoulder while the sun was shining brightly ...the temp was low 60s or so.. There was a sneaky tower like right there along side the summit ... the structure drifted in and over the course of five minutes they went from light rain, to heavy rain and hail, to heavy snow, to lighter grapple, to light rain with occasional thunder claps..then the sun came back out and the temp was right back up into the low 60s in short order. You get the impression ... that type of elevation is like being half way up a cumulonimbus head...right around where the wet-bulb freezing level is...

That 18 to 24 hour cold shot on Monday offered up by the GFS ( and/or any other models doing similarly ) reminds me of that scene in "Airplane," ...where Leslie Neilsen's character is repeatedly smacking a panic stricken female passenger to 'get her under control,' when some other steward or passenger says, "Captain! Captain! You're needed in the cockpit..." He moves as though to hurriedly acknowledge, but then hesitates ... steps back just to smack her face one last time, before slipping off the scene.

You're right? But overall the evolution out beyond D5(ish) across this run is morphing the pattern - for seasonal druthers ... reasons to be optimistic. Clearly a different hemispheric structure/evolution underway comparing the last 30 to 45 days. I had mentioned this the last couple of days and I see this run ( and the others for that matter) as continuing along the zygote trend to fill the vertical component of trough depths in general. I hate to say .. but it's very typical of dying phase 2 MJO, which is modeled ... but ... given to the time of year, it's interesting whether wave dispersion mechanics are that enforcing or if this is just all coincidental.. I don't even think that look (above) per se is all that bad though. That trough is transient for one... it's plumbed about to it's greatest latitude and there aren't identifiable over-arcing large synoptic spacing issues that suggest it cuts off and locks down there like recent repeating gyre placements. Plus, the entire NAO domain space is positive over the western limb - another indicative signal of impending pattern change. Also, not for not but D10 Euro's tend to over amplify features between 60 and 90W at mid latitudes ... If one observes the flow structure from eastern Ontario to NF on D8...it's hard to identify exactly why the Euro suddenly takes a two-day flattening trend and reverses the wave signature and curves the flow so dramatically like that ... when it's up to that amplitude bias it likes to tail off it's latter run cycles with ...typically it looks like that behavior. It's a subtle bias but the objective observer knows to account for that in either warm(cool) pattern orientations. It's just me, but that's a snap shot of a pattern that's changed - granted... you're not arguing that, but just the same ... that pattern changes into one where doesn't have nearly the same implications ( or even confidence ) for cold vomit. As is, that D10 ( silly I know...) isn't 52 with mank. In fact, the 850s being so warm like that under tall June sun, it'd be pretty damn warm through about 18z in the interior before the ocean breeze cuts in. It's like.. that's a BD look in a warm pattern as opposed to a BD look in a cool one... I'll take that.

It's coming... this is going to grow in time - trust me