Typhoon Tip

I got a question for all you Davis and/or what-have-you home weather station techies: what do you do about officiate calibration ? I'm not asking to impugn anyone's data, but... take last June 30 through the 5th of July... there was a 93-96 sort of heat wave ... during which most of the Davis' on Wunder' were consummately higher than any of the 4 major NWS climo ... by hourly and on the 2s... In fact, any station on the site that was equal to NWS were outliers relative to Wunder's site. I'm wondering why that is. It seems logical to assume that the technology its self is not designed to be 3 to 5 F warmer in DP than the NWS calibration technique so... I'm not sure it's a station placement issue or what's up with that.

Hey ...don't blame the realist ...much less the messenger - I bet if you put 100 winters on graph that has a y-axis = licking donkey balls ... 0 being no balls ... 10 a full bj ... > 50 of them are in the 6 or 7 range. It's one of the reasons why I'm usually mailin' it in around the 10th of March and start looking forward to 66 days of mist instead ... because by that point in time, I don't know which is worse - the bj or the north atlantic prison scene. But yeah...that was my goal..

may very well be a temperate summer ... then we get that one mandatory four days of 94 to 96 to make up for it circa Sep 1 through the 10th before we cave toward a blocking early October that gins up lots of good feelings for a winter just before it all rolls-back into a no show

Right ...adding, "moving" anomaly "nodes" around ... that's what creates weather... well, at a fundamental level, differential heating along a curved surface does, but you get what I mean. If the NAO is an east limb variation, and then the anomaly starts retrograding toward a west one, that in its self can create winter storm track changes that effect the latitude where they move off eastern N/A ...etc.. I like to look at the changing numerical values of the teleconnectors combined with the observations of mass-field distribution ... ( just mean where the ridges and troughs are migrating...) This is actually a good point and time to point out why a -NAO may not mean as much for our temperature biases over the next week. Kevin was asking earlier... Firstly, the mean R-wave length in the summer is difficult at times to ascertain ..because they are more amorphously structured in the summer/warm season months... That said, what are identifiable, they tend to be shorter in wave-length. Well... consider that logically: the correlations to the pattern have to thus be different compared to winter, when the coherency of the wave spacing/structures is much clearer, ...and, longer. Thus, a -NAO wester limb blocking is not really the same in June as it is at Christmas... I mean, I should say "doesnt' tend to be" But, this particular week coming up... the Euro's deep lower Maritime gyre doesn't have a very strong over -arcing high height block ... But, because that gyre is so deep, the total anomaly is pulling the -NAO very deep... But that is a situation where the raw -NAO numbers kind of lie ( for lack of better word ) about it's ability to keep our region very cool. In fact, the Euro has 12 C or warmer 850 mb temperatures from D4.5 to almost the end of the run. If the wind stays offshore and it's sunny... it will get into the 80s assuming that sort of scenario verified..

I added some notes to that ... ( I inadvertently posted before finishing typing )

A little snark crossin' ya out like that, perhaps ... but it's really true. Numbers don't mean shit... They only "suggest" ... you have to then observe the mass-field distribution and just think of it this way... We've identified in the past, western versus eastern limbed anomaly distribution and what they mean for 'forcing' pattern constructs here ... Not just in the parlance of on-line weather-related social media but all the way up to officiate offices too... And all that is true for all domain spaces, for that matter... -(+) EPO's out near the the western region of that domain space can make a world of difference where the cold loading into N/A takes place...for example... etc...etc..

Certitude and convection seldom share company... pin pointing precise CB columns in space and time, and who/what happens underneath them is outside the scope of present day technology. Ha. But, just from a synoptic perspective .. there is a medium chance for showers ... Given the regions proximity to the warm sector and available CAPE ... to mention, having a stationary/w-frontal boundary extended west to east through southern VT/NH .. adding an another instability/plausible trigger, the total chance is there. The actual models .. the MESO orientated ones do have QPF blobs erupting upstate NY through mainly central, but spattered throughout southern New England. So .. these synoptic signals, +modeling, should = a fair shot at seeing some lightning over the horizon if not a local thunderstorm. In fact, the 3 KM NAM has an over-achiever slow moving MCC that it seems to blossom in conjunction with either a convectively induced low west of ALB during the nigh... or, is legit and is a concentration. It also depends where you are located ? If you are in central NE proper, the shift may be toward less individual convection and more toward overrunning with embedded/elevated cells.

Meh... soil moisture is overrated due to our small-ish geographical area, and we're not really transporting in a gray-blue tinted horizon air mass with this warm air.. .I'm not sure I see 67+ but we'll see. Unsure on the latter. SRH can be high in those 50 mile gaps below the equatorial sides of these wboundaries but there's a lack of triggers. I'm not sure what bulk shear is like but just eyeballing the surface to 700 mb there's more directional than mass-balance issues. SPC isn't very interested... I think gully rivers and some CG ...

More like a climo -ranged DP surge ... but sure, muggier... warmth I suspect busts too cool by area METs by some. I saw a lot of 77 type temps for metro west... hhheeh... . I'd align the warm front ~ ALB - ASH ... particularly per the 18z suite. NAM inside of 24 hours isn't as bad as some think it's fun to carp - usually when it's not showing something they want. And the GFS is on board as well for at least southern VT/NH with that boundary now... Actually farther N than prior model cycles. Has T1 all the way to 24 C over Logan on a wind coming from a rough Hartford trajectory... That usually means a 2-meter in the 28 C range or roughly 82 to 84 F for common reference. Meanwhile, DPs should be a minimum 63 this far into green-up in the warm sector if that wfrontal placement pans out. It's hard to keep the high temperature under the T1 in June on a SW flow ...and so the MOS is likely got a dimmed climo event in there somewhere...

I tell ya ... too bad this wasn't December 4th with that CDC and CPC tele spread(s) ... we'd be talking and epic to historic early winter expression/potential... It looks like a prelude to a 20-30" climate correction event. I wonder what that means on June 4 tho - heh...

obviously .. .but yeah, I just thought it funny to point it out... It's also spinning it to be not such a big deal the way you put that. I may not be. ... but I've been around and know that the monkeys are running the zoo now more than ever. It's gotten worse -

what the hell are you dudes talking about ... moods this and well-adjusted that... What is that - Then, if someone lucid offers and educated opine re the psycho-babble "support group" nature of the 'between the lines' antics in here, they get admonished? I'm just starting to wonder if this isn't a concentrated consortium of weirdos that happen to be in an era where they can find each other using the web. In any case... That is a humid and warm 24 hours in coming tomorrow, with thunder probable ... when obviously to be determined. So, for those that enjoy summery fair... enjoy. We'll see what the pattern does after but it looks ( to me ) like several days of seasonal to perhaps a tick or two above normal ( in other words ...not very well noticeably so) with decent days...

This is really interesting ... tho, excruciatingly tedious. It's a nerd's paradise to follow, but the NAM's synoptic handling of the best perceived warm frontal axis it has slated to set up roughly from just N of Albany NY ...across southern VT/NH to perhaps Portsmouth, tomorrow, is unusually stable across multiple model cycles. I mean ..yeah, blah blah it is the NAM but the Euro's been persistently allowing the warm fropa clear to PSM too. More typically ... a dangling boundary in that particular position ends up down somewhere in the vicinity of NYC. First, I think the local media coverage ( which I happened to spy while running 'mill at the gym last nigh) are too cold on the cool side of that boundary. This particular air mass we are enjoying now ... it is not/was not delivered by way of over-top mass ...like the previous high pressure regions this season. I think that preponderance has them a bit prone to being too cool.. This particular air mass, albeit presently cool, is an under delivery... That means that as the high shifts east, the winds continue to back ...all the way around the dial and what was once a NNW flow becomes NW...W to SW, as opposed to NW then ENE vomit. In other words, we don't have to suffer our geographic unique propensity to lay down GOM slabs and have them stagnate because of an ENE flow out of a retreating high/stymie warm frontal arrivals. This is a sort of rare scenario for us...where the warm front does not encounter that typical front-side resistance ... as much. The DP may be more indicative of where the boundary is ...when it is where it is... heh. Anyway, or... if there is a lead side cloud band and showers... forget the above paragraph. ... In that case, there is a bigger bust potential along the front. HFD with laze faire flag wobbles from the SW would be 86/67 while ASH may be 59/58 ... Either way, any time we have that kind of temperature differential and boundary/SRH in the region .. we gotta wonder about thunder -

Ah hahaha. Dont like the reflection in the mirror huh. Just fuggin with ya

This social media has a genetic heritage in weather-related interests, ... not complicated. So if there's a thunderstorm in Bedford Mass, that doesn't matter because your in N. Ct... dude, is there any awareness at all while you are typing the ...lunatic assertions/reasoning you do? One can only surmise, you do it deliberately... and to that: You are no closer now at degrading the worth of this engagement as you were when you first set out to deride it years ago over at Eastern -

No clouds at 69 at 190' elevation at the terminus of d-slope/katabat is hard to do in June and that's pretty common around down here. Btw folks, for those fed up ... 12z NAM/Euro both suggest a sneaky torridity day .. pretty potent warm frontal passage 06 to 12z on Wednesday - ...heh, have to gauge that. w-boundaries don't typically pass at that time of day due to diurnal decoupling but.. probably skirts through in the morning either way. Impressive warm push Has 25 to 28 C 2-meter implied EWR-HFD-FIT-BED-ASH with ( what I guess ...) would be some under side SRH convection maybe, too... That's like 84/70 with crispies tickling the tropopause ee haw. After that looks like 80 with bubble no trouble ... Weird to cut off a lower Maritime gyre that's starved for cold air but maybe the atmosphere just ran out ...haha. It's like dry heaving at us ...Jesus. Better idea -... just stop. wtf

I'm tellin' 'em ... winter's not over man... we'll let 'em know when it's safe to come out and play

Ultimately ...it doesn't matter. My own hypocrisy is that I'm less aware of it myself ...oh, circa Novie 1 through about Mar 10 ... I like big winters like the best of 'em and I don't really 'want' to read about 90 F days when I'm formulating coastal bombs out of teleconnections that are hitting it hard, while the operatinonal runs aren't yet supporting and trying to demo forecast philosophies for others and instead encounter a seemingly oddly strategically timed antithetic content ... And I've noticed the frequency upticks...like flies buzzing off a disturbed dog turd, right around the time one has posted an impertinent gesture of daring to mention warm air in late May.. Ha... oy. I'm probably naively thinking my readers are either objective ... or reading. Then, the former becomes a 'troll- like' opposing distraction to that over all effort, whether intended to or not. 'Hate' is too strong though. Just umbrage at times. There's a transparency to it all ... exposes one as really just servicing their own therapy ... I have better things to do than be ignored in those times, and or serve as someone's wailing wall either way. But ...it's a choice. One can do something else Also, a goodly part of my assholier-than-thou thing is that I'm just bustin' balls much of the time, btw. No-one is getting any taps on the shoulder for their contribution on the Internet ... that's an earlier shock-and-awe societal adjustment to the advent of the technology that has come and gone. It's just old hat, simply put. Familiarization of social-medias-spheric opining is nothing new. Countless forums have issue fatigued everyone and ad nauseam ... ranging in too many special interest groups than is ultimately very healthy for society already showing signs of fracturing0 by schismatic ideologies...etc, etc... The internet is, most probably, related to why some of that is happening. Anyway, so people don't really care to distill facts from fiction, intellectual talent from rube-ology ... You write the original "To Kill A Mockingbird" transcript and foist it onto the internet and you'd only get "tl;dr"

I'd be happy. I'd take Schadenfreude. I mean ... just knowing that some avatar with the word "snow" couched in it, is suffering no snow. I wouldn't otherwise. In fact, I might even be sympathetic to their season-lorn sorrow. But these same critters, they skulk about the social media of weather... consummately timing their reminders for us all that it's chilly ... just when the models are trying to change the pattern warm. It's that antic, right precisely there that's off-putting. Some do it to troll... for fun..whatever. Some, engage in that because they really have some odd deeper hangup that's keyed into a psyche averse to summer - and we become unwitting buffers for their grief. Either way..no thanks. Every time they do that in the fantasy poetic justice realm, they get docked a 4-6" er (yes I'm aware there's a carnal joke there...)

It's a good thing there is no poetic justice in the 'emoto-guided' weather hobbyist's intents and purposes... Cuz no winter would be the just deserts.

MOS numbers in the low 70s down this way ... Couldn't be more satisfied with this air mass as it's been thoroughly cleansed of smoke contamination. No cloud, June sun, lower humidities... and not cold ... Not really even cool - though yes... when the sun goes down, the dusky air may homage an autumnal appeal. This is a like an etch-n-sketch swipe - for those of us of older generations that know what those are. In this case, we set the stage for synoptic differences. Namely, the 850 mb thermal layout is warmer out there as a canvas ... panning the entire lower Canadian provinces and throughout any of our source regions, much more obviously so than at any other prior evaluation cycle this fledgling warm season. That said, the hemisphere circulation is still, for whatever reason... locked into an inordinately meridional tendency. Even when the combined ensemble mean(s) numerically calculate the tele's as neutral or even positive, this doesn't seem to reflect very well in the dailies of the operational versions, nor those particular individual means within themselves either. I still wonder if/when there is and en masse correction where the two align, but is yet to do so. But here's the thing... despite that, the Euro ( for example ) really doesn't descend the 850 mb much below +10 C throughout its mid and extended range; that, despite the -1 or -2 SD, 500 mb ginormous lower Maritime gyre that still ( imho ) seems to defy large -scaled physical/synoptic arguments ... Be that as it may, seein' as I don't run Navier/Stokes corrective algorithms in my mind so be it. The 00z GFS and some recent runs of the parallel ( FV3') were more agreeable in that regard but whatever. The same circulation synoptically, but a warmer variation of it. That's the mean of the models ... I don't like that either. It seems the hemisphere is in limbo ... We really shouldn't be generating those 500 mb gradients in the geopotential, with 4 or 5 contoured hornet sting upper vortexes that envelop massive geographical expanses. It's interesting that the models are gutting the cold and warming the lower troposphere underneath all that.

This batch of overly warned convection appears to be warm frontal ...Counter intuitive but these cluster do run along warm fronts ..There's a distinct cfropa related linear complex over eastern NY we'll have to contend with ...probably in some diminished form later on given our short-bus convective climate ... Sucks too... just clipped me here at this end of Rt 2... Not five miles S of me the outflow terms and I'm sure it's still near 80 ... I was lookin forward to an evening in open toed shoes, shorts and casual polo ..now it's back to jeans and long sleeve shirt. it's still winter... I'll let you know when the season finally's changed ... rat stinker

If you're on the N-E side of this diffused warm front... you're miserable. If you're on the S-W side, you're in early summer conditions. Those are your two "support group" discussion perspectives... I'm at 79/64 here with coherently different 'smell' to the air, indicative of having succeeded said boundary. This is two hours ago... judging by sat/Davis' obs in the area...it's probably meandered up near MHT or so just guessing...

yeah... despite the GFS, I suspect the same. warmer in general. I like the EPS for now, oscillatory between seasonal warmth/thunder truncated by seasonal cool fronts.

Well hell... complete reversal in the NAO domain handling via the GFS' operational/ overnight. Not sure I buy it, though. For one, it's ensemble mean went the other direction - both the CDC and CPC have the NAO even more positive day's four through twelve-ish. Operational must be a complete outlier if those agency numbers are correct. Over decades in this business, pattern changes can do this at times in individual ensemble members - in this case ... the operational version. Suddenly, regression stonewalls the change like an obdurate Trump supporter. The Euro operational actually broke a bit toward what I was mentioning yesterday ... a bit less troughing intrusion backing/carving S/SW out of the D7/8 Maritime gyre, as well... somewhat less ridging over the Lakes while doing so... Basically, just a less amped variation in both features. No wonder really ... replacing an extended range illustration with something closer to climate isn't a bad recourse, no. The EPS mean has meanwhile morphed into a more progressive period of time overall from D6-10 so... Either way... the pattern is still slated to change, despite the GFS. Who knows exactly what that will be, but it should be warmer in general. Maybe it'll be a temperate form, oscillatory between seasonal warmth/thunder truncated by seasonal cfropas... Gotta say, personal druthers? That's an outstanding improvement. Anything is better than ruining outdoor time with 25 out of 37 days of clouds and measurable. Again, a misery that's sort of underscored in how the actual 'in bucket' amounts are not even that anomalous. We're like regionally less than 2" above normal since January... No, this has been a target face smack spring.