Typhoon Tip

I know you've been pushing this event ... this 'follow up' thing ... it's all good - but it's not really only indirectly related to this thread, which was specific to the NYE and Day time frame. Just sayin' I will say though, that this is following awfully close in space, so it may be a bit dynamics starved ...

Ugly... the pattern is ugly squared... This pattern and this thing ...it's like growing up rural in town of 12,400 people, and only seeing the same girls and so you think that one is so precious ... until you go to Frisco or LA or NYC and see women

I'm not sure what my opinion of V16 is ... I've heard some floated rumors that it's verification/scoring is besting the current operational variant - as well as other models too.. But where? What sigma level/metrics ?? ...I mean, is through the whole troposphere ...? or just in the 500 mb ongoing cinema - I will say I like the 12z V16's entrenched cold look as being more realistic for just knowing how cold air is heavier and any positive soundings will tend to stay that way - duh... That looks like brief snow to bee-bees and glazing in interior SNE probably down into N CT ... and looking at the meso-beta low down there near CHH/Cape.. combined with a clear dam in the PP NW of there.. .that thing is going to end that way, too - period. Seems we go through this doubt shit every time this sets up ... It's really no different in/when wondering if that BD in April is actually going to come down and bargaining all these rationalities why it won't - how does that end for you ? But ...as I said last hour.. if the high moves off more so than these GFS members have it... that's a different ball game

The AO did correct at last ...last night's run completely flipped. The "gape" that had opened up between the verification curve wrt the on-going prognostics has rather abruptly corrected. Hard to know/say what/why that happened ... but the two are eye-balling a more actually correlation coefficients ...which prior for a week running they had gone astray. That "might" offer some confidence back in using the damn thing .. the gap before really rattled its usage to non usable frankly... It was over as much as 2SD parted ways and increasing. Right now the the verification curve has demonstrated so much instantaneous correction ( for a single cycle!) that it has to have been some sort of mass-field reset - it literally repositioned the curve 2.5 SD almost straight down and knowing where this set as of yesterday morning... That appears 'less than organically motivated' - Either way, now the prognostic curve and the verification curve are descending... together ... big time! I find it interesting also that as this correction took place, we are also seeing less 'mop ended' discord among the members entering week two. So in short ..we suddenly "seem" to have a legit mightily suppressed AO coming from the GEFs .. Now that that's been taken care of... we still have the unusual circumstance of high velocities around the periphery of the ambient PV... When the AO drops negative, typically the PV relaxes both velocity and latitude... This "pancaking" of the PV ... is unstable geometrically with the curvature-linear planet space so the flow buckles.. .and in the polarward parts become ridge nodes, while the equatorial dips become conveyors for both cold delivery to mid latitudes, but storm traffic increases. The problem is that the velocities being high ... offsets those buckling tendencies - it's figuratively as though the PV is just large, but not weak. All this means pattern change - ...to what... Hard to guess because of the velocity skewing the climate model. I guess go with something that correlates more so than less, with -AO... I would imagine that (WPO-EPO)/NP and the NAO all may begin to exert more negative...but I suspect the higher velocity is impinging on those domain spaces and preventing curvature to take over ( the MJO is in destructive interference with the AO ... which is the anti correlated state - but, I don't think the MJO is really even propagating/forcing in expanded HC as readily as it use to; supposition ) The NAO is neggie - btw... But as Will pointed out, it's useless being so far E. However, the AO being perhaps "legitimately" negative and appearing to descend in concert with the member mean ( GEFs..) this is generally more favorable for retrograde - so "maybe" the NAO modulates west given time ..if not diminishes then rematerializes as so.

If we lose the high pressure to the N .. game over. It's a bit unusual to be 4.5 days out and still needing to iron out the larger scaled synoptic/governing features, but such is life in a fast and flat furious Pac dominated flow. I mean, relaying waves off the open expanse of the assimilated lands of dragons and wizards and in a velocity rich hemisphere, the shortening of the typical 3-day window is reducing to just 2 days to make up one's mind. Lord! ...thank that agency for the better assimilation techniques or this would be bad night at Vegas But, this GFS run is moving the erstwhile high pressure that was N of Maine on guidance yesterday, more to NE of Maine by early Friday, ...and we'll still probably have generated a tuck jet/on-going from the present run's configuration, but any more longitude with that +PP and said jet starts weakening and we go the in situ route and use up cold fast. Thing is... it's still unusual for lows to defeat planetary jet constructs/confluence across S-SE Canada... and that is what this is doing.. It's phasing the roll-out S/W ridging from the vestigial S /stream as it rides up the ridge, with the NVA/ ... and that's like engineering how to do the unlikely - f'n model.. .I swear sometimes I wonder if the modelers purposefully parameterize the GFS to run and prove quantum mechanic outre realm of duality -

Physics/micro-physical process of phase transition heat release will affix an initially icing scenario toward 32 and change like Will described. Icing events eat their set ups, and when the cold is gone...the icing stops - heh.. true though. They use up their own cold. It's simply a matter of how much cold vs the mass of phase transition, determines the length of icing post the initial condition. What makes protracted icing scenarios earn their coveted "storm" merit badges ( lol ..), is adding sufficiently thermodynamic cooling to the column to offset latent heat. There are two types of icing events - one is in situ, which is what the self-destruction model is above ... The others are dangerous because their gestation revolves around at the planetary wave changes. Will and Eric ( or is it Chris ..can't remember Oceanwx name) hinted at this when they described the 'pulse' or waves of synoptic light to moderate fall rates - that's basically a manifestation of a "pattern" in place that is just ripping separate events through it ...each one is being instructed by said pattern as an overrunning scenario. And ... yup, while all that is happening, it helps wanton malificent storm monger's hopes and dreams to not have the fall rate exceed the accretion rate, or they'll watch a lot of their "ice" fail to ruin the lives they are hoping to see ruined... ( ) . The big ice storm in Orh, 2007 - man the stars actually protected the region as much as delivered that entertaining event, because given what fell in that beast ... I'm willing to bet 2/3rds failed to rime. If that thing had been spread out across three nights and 1 F colder, we'd still be rewiring their infrastructure. I think the 1926 New England ice storm was a unique one, as it was both in situ, but also had large scale features/cold offset arriving ...such as building surface high under the rim of an initially liquid coastal storm - just from the stuff I read. It was like a wet snow to cold rain to icing Nor'easter -

We may be on the verge of more total systemic morphology -type changes ( ...like the CMC's 00z take on matters by et al ) that will emerge as we press thru these next 2 .. 3 cycles. Supposition so..tfwiw, but this flat fast yet highly energetic flow coming off the Pacific is notoriously ( over generations past .. ) problematic for model handling features in space and time. There have been advancements and gap control techniques that are proven useful, ...however, I find it interesting nonetheless that the 00z begins to nose Nino like insert off the Pacific on the 00z intake and the CMC does this. What that guidance - to me - appears to have done is wagered more momentum/potency in the lead wave, and that staggering jet input coming in afterward is weaker... What this does is, the lead wave then has a stronger backside NVA/confluence stream mechanic post bifurcation up there nearing the Lakes, ..and that then causes an increase ( rather abruptly upon all this mess..) of +PP genesis, ..cold BL and more suppression of the polar boundary... But, we noticed the vestigial southern stream ( post said splitting ..) is also considerably ( now ..) weaker as a result ( again ) of placing more emphasis on the leading jets structures as they are feeding over California - in the virtual realm of the CMC mind you.. Long of the short is, the deeper cold, weaker southern stream is no longer adequate to over come suppression ... then, the system/coastal others are noting becomes an entirely new entity closer to the 3rd ...possibly even 4th of January. It should be noted that this sensitivity to jet mechanics relaying off the Pac was one of our bullet points at the onset of this thread - ..and that this whole period of time is needing refinement. I don't have any reason to presume the CMC's modulation/changes are false... But, I do think it is either going to be right, or, it will have to modulate back to the pack.. Which, I still would like to see the latter get the physically realized grid down their throats before raising confidences... The pack still believes the initial mechanics will split - they all do.. and that the norther counter part will deliver an antecedent cold insertion along the upper OV-NE regions... questions remain as to the southern entrails and how they then roll up underneath.. suppression vs powerful and toting stronger WAA... I don't for the record believe the super-synoptic scale tendency for an arm of polar jet arced along the southern tier of the Canadian Shield, will relent as readily as the EPS suggests, just based upon experience here. It may ... these models don't put out "physically impossible" scenarios... I would also note that having R-wave nadirs near the 100 to 110W lon is a problem across N/A for Euro species/trough inserts digging too much. Back when the 29th appeared a player ... I did post that I thought the period of the 27th through the first week of January was interesting - it seems like that happens more often, where an 'original' take sort of comes back to rear a presentation after the intervening din of emergence finally fail to all but mute them... Maybe we're just in the formulation phases -

Lol ... I kept that brief, too On a PC that's not much - these phone make things seem a lot longer

As this mid to late week has come into a mid range, the previous synopsis of a full latitude trough has apparently succumb to a fast N/stream top heavy flow, and said trough in all guidance has now bifurcated. Complex evolution involving the residual southern stream then rides up into a nascent/model introduced cold insert to 40 N This has sheared the N/ counterpart E across southern Canada and escaping thru the Maritime toward week's end... The back side of this is concomitantly NVA and depending on guidance ...stream confluence is noted. But all guidance now also roll nascent/materializing +PP across Ontario in this wake. That 'growth' in this anticyclone ( I suspect ..) is insidiously important as it likely imposes a bit of cold bust potential due to acceleration of tuck/barrier jet flow/ orientation therein, as the vestigial S aspect of said sheared trough is then rising up the semi-permanent SW Atlan ridge..This feature will pose an overrunning risk as it will ( undoubtedly..) be toting along a respectable theta-e mass ...and due to the morphology of it running up into a confluence, it will 'stretch' in the x-coordinate ... this can manifest in a light to moderate longer duration cold rain/mix/snow ( S-->N) event, or perhaps split into multi wave/pulse even spanng 24 to 36 hours .. This is all speculative due to the fact that although these visions are barrowed from climo and experience... the offending tropospheric wave features are just nosing into the denser more physically realized sonde array this evening an overnight... Seems to be a recurring concern as of late, doesn't it. Prelim slated for refining: - Right now I would say light to moderate event by our storm-climate standards. - I would also correct the GFS 2-m temps down 3-5F N of the boundary ...and don't be afraid to imagine 15 or even 20F temp compression along 10 miles of frontal position in a situation like this. - Appears to me to be 70 or % for advisory ice/snow in CNE with low probability for warning ... 50% for these down as far as mid CT/NW RI, but these headlines probably get headachy due to ice S vs a mix of mangled bullet and snow N.

it might almost be worse than that, in the operational 00z/12z blend of those two cycles ... yeesh. I mean, cutters tend to have back side upslopeCAA tho.. cold advection instability squalls .. It's just maddening to the enthusiast that they have to scrape by on that in wait of the rollout and next warm intrusion. What the Euro is doing reminds me of December 2006 frankly - getting dated at 14 years ago... but that was the year that was in danger of going down as a like an unworldly statistical warm outlier freak winter. I don't think I even saw a snow flurry prior to January 10 that year... It was a weirdly Pacific dominated flow so violently extreme that +30 850 mb temperatures washed over the Canadian shield at times/in plumes and the places like Tower MN failed to registery a 32 F before Xmas... I remember as the satire publication, "The Onion" remarked about the dangerous perils of the punishing Great Lakes winter in defiant mockery over 52 F frostbite sarcasm - ... it was surreal. I don't know... I'm spit ballin' there but the Onion did joke about that winter.. .and it was ongoing unprecedented badness ... Just there was no such thing as winter ... period... on this side of the hemisphere. The AO that autumn, unlike recently ... was NOT in error, and it was putting up two towers to +6 SD!!!! intermediated by a relaxation to +4 in between. Every day was 47 to 62 range for highs until mid January... Then, it all changed yeah..the AO crashed actually in early January and plummeted some 7 SD from +6 to -1 or -2... At first the cold dumped over in Eurasion but the wave number rotated around 10 days later and NP popped the AB phase /-EPO and we started getting cold... I think we snowed at the end of the month and then February made up some ground. I remember almost being disappointed at that point ( almost ) ...because when we got to mid point and it was exotic, it felt like tarnishing a Monet' art work and I wanted the painting to finish that way... I mean christ, if could have only made another month of it - .. .But where the hell was I going .. oh yeah, the Euro and EPS' flow is uncanny similar to that mean look of that Dec 2006. I don't know what or why they are - but I don't have any confidence in them necessarily for now either.

God bless Pivotal for existing ... But, I wish their displays were larger than just southern Canada and the conus adjacent marine - it's too small to gather a toe-hold on the hemispheric feeds and exits and good synoptic reads really need those perspectives - Anyway, the 850 mb EPS from 00z last night .. that's uglyXugly .. ugly*squared - green lawns and budding forsythias - ... yeah, safe to say, given the Euro's vision overall, there is not an interesting signal for Jan 7 - 11 lol... Probably the opposite

Nice signal on the GEF members for the Jan 7 -11 period. Most members carry 'some'thing .. ranging from baroclinic wall to a deep phasing constructs and coastal cryo - I think as soon as the CPC ensemble system rights its self we'll get better confidence in a blocking motif out there into the first half of the month. Recent CPC mean has parted company with the verification indicating it has been vastly too negative going back a week to 10 days with increasing error leading to the present time. In fact, the mean initialized about a whole SD lower than the verification curve in last nights output - ugh... The warm rain on Xmas actually WAS good fit for the AO/NAO ...but anyone CPC -reliant may have been nonplussed.. oops. But, forgetting the indices, the individual GEF members look stormy and it's not a bad look for those needing this excitement.

Better fall rates have resumed here in Ayer after our run-in with the verified albeit hinted if not wantonly ignored ( hahaha ) gap this morning... I threw this together for those who may feel jaded by this event - sometimes it helps to have the explanation...and I'm sure others may have some analytic ideas to add...

I suppose I could have said "Meteorological thesaurus free" ... otherwise, "twitisspheric" culture is doing wonders for the base-line reading/comprehension storm - yeah

I see what happened here... ah - yeah...it's pretty obvious. Sparring a lot of thesaurus work - satellite really shows it all... There is a clear mid level rotation that's moving roughly ALB-RUT- ..destined to mid Coast Maine if it gets that far before it starts to open up and lose identity atoning to the models that sold that phenomenon leading up to this... Anyway, there is clearly a lower tropospheric low pressure SE of ISP by a few clicks ( dry air seclusion is noted on hi res vis)... Meanwhile, what separates these two is unsually cold air here in the interior. It seems this system's losing mechanical punch - and the GFS ...albeit too aggressive in doing so, does get a nod for seeing this attenuation of the total wave-space mechanics leaving our skies... But the forcing was split by the polar wedge, which is too damn strong/thick - this system didn't need 9 F DPs through 300 mb of the tropospheric lower sounding, and air temps hung up at 21 F to get the job done. It was too much and as the SW come up and road over the N edge of that polar boundary's fascia wall, it didn't have the ability to cut the low level circulation through the viscus low level air... That's why this split happened... The snow/totals there in the SE are coming from a lower growth region in the sounding ( I bet ...) associated with their proximity to that low level cyclonic reflection ..probably entirely driven by 700 ( or so..) mb mechanics/ that is probably going to die off out there S of NS ... while the stuff up along the frontogen axis is purely a mid level blizzard overcoming the lower dry air... It's pretty cool to watch this happen.. I feel very confident if the mid level wind max/ DPVA trajectories were farther S along the actual polar interface/LLV thickness packing therein... you would have collocated that torsional energy with the low level and this would have been more of a 2005 idealized structure... In a sense, this is like taking the 2005 Dec event and pulling it apart/stressing and tiling it's vertical structure... which unfortunately, creates this red-headed step-child negation band from NE CT to SE NH

You're scraping your way to a meager snow-life as a pedestrian deal ... while the rich like Brian trample on the bruised backs of the labors - lol... Seriously though, this systems intensely banded nature is making the deposition layout very uneven. In a step-back larger 'physical' sense, ...take from one region, and load it into another - relative to this system's forcing, this stuff's gotta come from somewhere. I mean, we've got a 'yard-sticker' event up there in NY and frankly - was that even well handled? I'm 'pretty sure' - though didn't pay very close attention admittedly ... - that NWS offices didn't have those regions ...you know, doing that ... But who knows.. But if you take half off their totals, and half those along this pig CEO band in CNE.. and spread it more 'fairly' and ubiquitously, the system ...we're all in for 16+. It's interesting if one can disconnect disappointment and just look at it analytically actually ... Probably won't be able do that for about 9.4 years, or ironically the same total in snow inches we get in this ... gravity well ? That's something I'm wondering ...if the offset DVM imposed by a compensating standing wave is partly to blame for this rather striking systemic dearth in this zone, too -

Looks that way by a little, yes -

Yup, we urged taking the 'notching' and 'gap' work painted on QPF progs seriously and here we are - nailed that! Just eye-ballin' out of window, looks like 6-8"" here in N. Middlesex Co/Ayer. Respectable low-end result is a fair qualification at the moment. Seems rad has no interest in bringing SE here, or NW axis back S, and seeing as short range diagnostic tools don't either we're probably already flurries mode on this dawg. I can see 20" totals surround this axis. These notches are interesting. It's hard to say if it is purely coincidence of mid and low-level disparate physical mechanism, where a split then both avoiding this region - one being frontogenic and 'quasi' CSI, N and the other being lower baroclinic SE ... Or, is it that this region sits right in the core of barrier jet mechanics where the evaporation is higher..? I think like everything it is probably some percentage of both. I lean toward splitting the systemic mechanism as most culpable, however. I've looked back at some storms in history with the NESDIS totals product and you know it's fascinating ... I can see this phenomenon is not unprecedented for the region that aligns ~ central Worcester CO to interior SE NH. Not in every case .. no, and in fact, there's are times when this region's presented with the max as well.. But this region does gap in certain sets up, and is reproducible so it's probably a real phenomenon. The Boxing Day Event was an even more pronounced variation than this one... though this is going to be pretty striking at 1/2 to as much as 2/3rds less than NW and SE. Anyway, there are a lot of them that featured this interesting "dent" in the totals ... might be in an interesting sub-genre study - 21/20 S- (EDIT, actually we're suddenly closer to S here. I'm guessing fractals and chaos made a phone call to discuss the impudence of me daring to suggest only flurries the rest of the way here .. We'll see. I haven't been up red-eyed over this. But NCAR's wonderful gritty past-and-present product suggests we didn't really start gapping until after 5 or 6 am amid said region.. So it's interestingly suggestive of being in axis of that oreographic focused dry tongue of air cutting in underneath the growth region - I think it's both mechanical split and evaporation. )

it's also typically slanted too... The fronto-g band lags fallout after initiation due to lifting the parcel at a slant-wise trajectory blah blah...

it wouldn't shock me if even down there in interior/S NJ they have to go over to an advisory ... I bet they bullet nuggets in sideways rattle in undercutting cold bust - this high just can't be more instructively placed for dictating model error - ... look at Will's obs up there and it's cold in place, and integrated into back-built air mass that is endlessly supplying - when any pressure falls start occurring the coastal barrier jet will only intensify and bust everyone cold that is already in it - You're talking 12 F DP at TTN ...and it's only colder and deeper in the supply region... and judging by those wind flags, the llv barrier flow has already set up anyway - Probably a good time to point out that the lower 100 mb of the atmosphere is very difficult to resolve for even SREF meshing...

Yeah... looks like there's some question as to cold air supply in this - seems at 20/6 as an average BL precondition from EWR to BOS... we're in trouble -

Didn't stay up all night so I'm "late" to the morning shenanigans but ... I'm still seeing two aspects, one that is fun and one that is annoying ( potentially...) 1 ... CSI or 'quasi' CSI (Conv. Symmetrical Instability) still seems plausible if not likely in this situation - I didn't listen/see WCVB's morning report, but I do recall their layout later yesterday was a smidge less at "10-16" with no "+" symbol caboose ...so clearly, someone is trying to emphasize some form of local enhancement - ... (Edit.. I shortened that - it's too long of a read for this engagement so why bother - no one does or will ) 2 ... A tucking screw hole for Ray ? That stubborn notching is still being hinted in these products. From where I am, N Middlesex Co over to N. Essex there could result a relative minoring? There does seem to be a tendency in recent guidance renditions to fill that in... but it's still hinted/showing up around Worc. Co in the UKMET ... and Euro is hinting NE... It could be that said region is S of the said mid level 'frontogenic' forcing/CSI activity, while being too far NW of E MA's coastal frontal flop-side big snow signal. ..I could see like Brockton over to Framingham out along Rt 9 getting a surprisingly donut stuffing machine return from this, unrelated specifically to said mid level magic ... Other than that... these CSI/banding signals for me are quite elegantly designed, so without them this looks like a 10" thump... but if a band sets up... it's 4"/hr ?with thunder?

That’s interesting you get an impression from that like there’s some elevation dependency. Not sure that’s really what attributes to those local maxes. I mean this cold air is deep ... Valleys are cold too. Maybe it’s evaporation in a longer fall column? Huh.

Nuanced stretching still hinted and in order to do that it robs from vertical motion ...

It may in fact be noise ... because at this point, relative to what this thing has to work with, it’s got nowhere else to go but less ... I mean it’s maxing out what it has to work with already so anything else has got to deviate that direction. I don’t see how we can ask this system squeeze out more based on what she’s got going in