Typhoon Tip

There's Navier-Stokes based fluid mechanics and themodynamics... Then there's the real gigantic leap forward in the state of the art of prognostic Meteorological technology ... a model based, at long last, upon the "James-Kevin" equation -

It is a model as vast as space and as timeless as infinity. It is the middle ground between accuracy and fiction, between science and superstition, and it lies between the pit of man's fears and the summit of his knowledge. This is the model of imagination. It is an area which we call the miss-guidance zone.

The Euro's been onto this for a while - speaking to the straw man in the room... The GFS operational on the other hand, it keeps doing everything least imaginable to sop heat from gettting north of the 40th latitude ... particularly as those regions pertain to the northeast regions of U.S. and SE Canada, all f'n spring. It's like it's been stuck stubbornly in February. Thing is ...I'm not really prepared to completely deny it's current cooler eroding of ridges to be honest. It's been a blocky spring ... so the GFS has been sort of right more than less. Whenever the GFS creates another blocking nodes say ... north of James bay, its westerlies suppress south underneath, and that ablates the ridges.. which sends an ensemble line of warm scouring cfropas ..if not BDs our way, and that seems to have really verified as the predominating signal since March. The GFS continues to ignite blocking nodes up north over Canada and throughout the Greenland rough lat/lons... consistent with the -NAO, notwithstanding east or westerly biased limb. Euro on the other hand is presently indicating less blocking .. In fact, not really characteristic of that season long persistent trend? That trend denial... it probably shouldn't bode too well for warmth and summer enthusiasts over the next 7 to 10 days ... but, it doesn't mean the Euro should be summarily counted out. The GEFs NAO curve is finally elevated at both agencies... It may be a sign that the GFS is holding out too long too. I think it's worth the conversation because one model is more temperately characterizing with changeability ...70s...to low 80s with convection chances... While the other model has more of persistent summery look evolving, with multiple days in the mid or upper 80s.

sure does... I almost wonder what/if the phase-diagram might look like outta Fl state ... Like, do the bubblets try to meander tauntingly toward the warm core quadrant for a jiff...

Oh you don't have to remind me... I was one of the ones pointing that out - the MOS was doing it all spring. But there is a difference here.. Namely, the pattern is seasonally normalized quite a bit, by way of having moderated the heights upward unilaterally ...though still with some similar blocking constructs continuing - tru. But it is different, so I'm not sure if that 'correcting behavior' still going to take place given the newer regime. We'll have to see.. btw, ... for how little it is worth the extended Euro came in with the onset of the seasons for pan-eastern U.S. heat wave. 20 C 850s everywhere with clear heat-feed-back geopotential ridge dome blossoming. Obviously it's eye-candy for summer/heat enthusiasts but... This run is the fourth cycle in the row where it doesn't really get cool beyond this week's shenanigans. This may be what folks are seeing/exaggerating, in observing that general panache. But beyond D4 this is a warm-ish looking run. Not willing say how warm...just talking synoptic polish -

Actually ... in Kevin's defense there is something showing 85 to 90. The GFSX MOS FIT N/X 52 82| 51 66| 52 71| 50 84| 64 88| 68 86| 67 88| 65 55 78 BDL is also coming in with 8 to 10 over climate for D4, 5, 6 and 7, which is actually increasingly more difficult for this particular product due to climate normalizing for those ending days there. In fact, I'd go so far as to say these numbers look warmer than the synoptics would suggest. Interesting

This is true down our way, too.. Big one's. Like they brush against your forearm while keying the front door at dusk and it's a race.. But they have weight.. I mean, you can feel them brush. Long striped legs hangin' precipitously while probing in the air to target their syringe. I'm thinking that we had that ephemeral dry couple of years and that might have helped keep the population down. But, though we didn't have a lot of snow below NNE latitudes ... central, we did get lots of rain this last winter, Now the wet spring and verdant environment is giving them a comeback. I don't know but can't really even be outside when it's calm and mild between 6-9 pm now or you're getting pin-pricked all over.

Right right ... and the expression "nothing saying that" could not possibly be related conceptually to, "not high confidence" in the first place. I mean.. this is dumb, provincial nimrod pettiness to begin with but still... - it really is fascinating actually watching information as it is getting distorted through one's preferential lens. Completely elides qualifiers. Master of ripping out of context to promote an alternate fact - Fact of the matter is, he's a good-hearted troll. Always has been. He's doing it on purpose

Yup .. as part of the "temperatre summer" definition... we should get periods of corrective instability ... warm rolls in...overrunning this... might or might not wedge in before cfropa boomers...rinse repeat

ha... It's like he takes whatever there is in the summer and auto lies/tacks on 5+ degrees of both temp and DP... and vice versa in the winter.

I'm not sure I buy the nor'easter the NAM has... Not just because it is the NAM outside of 30 hours either. The GGEM tried to do that too... Both seem to be a bit convectively fed-back some there. It seems the baroclinic parameterization of the region along the MA and near-by west Atlantic isn't supportive enough. It could see a warm frontal wave lifting with that, sure ... but the NAM's curling so much surface pressure conveniently back around the N side of that whole mmm Could be creating its own positive feed-back by being too deep with that surface wave in the first place.

Agreed ... The Euro operational appears to be a warm outlier. Even the EPS means seems less warm pervasive comparing to that 00z run for those periods/days beyond five. I did comment on the 00z Euro yesterday when it, too, looked interestingly warm ..but this overall has double downed and really made it 80 D5 to 90 D10 across the range. The GFS isn't really interested. I can see something in between...as both models appear to be playing up their respective biases. The Euro may be hooking the inside slider S/W over the west, too prodigiously S early on as a typical albeit subtle bias for that model...which down stream helps maintain warmth... Contrasting, the GFS may be too eager to ablate/tamp down ridging as it also has a subtle tendency to do because of it's progressive bias. A compromise is a temperate summer pattern. Which could be wrong..sure. Either tendency could end up right anyway. Course of least regret for now is nothing annoying cool and clammy or obnoxiously sack sticker hot and heavy.

Heh...it's there but it appears more disorganized with limited parameter support. The general synopsis features a weakening L/W quasi closed structure in the MS/western TV regions that is opening up into a vestigial shear axis.. before getting absorbed in the newly arriving northern stream surge coming toward Lakes region... The combination of the two temporarily veers the deep layer flow more unilaterally upright along the EC and drives some higher PWAT air up along the cordillera and coastal regions ...eventually throughout New England by early Tuesday, ...just before said N/stream bullies a front through and cleans house later in the day... But that's beyond overnight.. Any time we transport a warm PWAT rich air mass toward a region that is initially cooler in the low levels ...overrunning can contain convection. With the general amorphous nature to the overriding mechanics ...it's probably more likely packets of showers/embedded lightning episodes. Low/nominal probability for severe ...but heavy rain here and there.

Euro operational is a bit on it's own ( though has some support by the EPS mean) for this next weekend. The GFS is really out of phase in the lower troposphere ...and the GGEM has yet it's own rendition. But the operational Euro has a modest heat signal there. Despite the strung out west to east oriented trough over southeast Canada Saturday and Sunday, the 00z solution portends a bit of elevated heights ... on the order of a quarter to perhaps half SD, rippling underneath the said vortex structure. This subtle S/W ridging at 500 mb is toting along a swath of well-mixing 850s that are in the neighborhood of 13 or 14 C on by late Saturday ...maturing to perhaps 16 or so by late Sunday. Given sufficient sun you got mid 80s to near 90 - hence 'modest' heat signal. It's certainly rather tedious in its self, but .. for me the interesting aspect is to observe a ridge/plausible warm day(s) couch inside a larger synoptic scope that features more a +PNAP structure - which would be more consistent with a cool look. That's actually an anomaly. 'Course... Euro probably changes that entire evolution on the next run .. Otherwise, that might also be convectively risky ...if we get some modest heat with that large depression in heights lurking near-by southeast Canada, and perturbation probably ignites fast moving activity.

When weather entertainment is rather uninspired ... this.

Too much evasion too

I don't know why or how you comprehended what I wrote the way you ( seemed ) to, but I wasn't "reading into" anything. I was asking a question as to whether the lack of sun made folks feel ripped off - period. But also gave reasons why they "might" be predisposed to feeling that way, too, as a supposition. Sounds like the your reading into what I wrote as someone reading into something ...hahaha... Jesus christ around here - wow

You'd be surprised... ( maybe, maybe not) Most people that I know, in my own Bacon-sphere ... about half of those like 90s with low dew point - Arizonian outback stuff. Which may not be what you had in mind when you mentioned "who wants 90s?" If you are thinking 90s/70s ... even 90s/60s, then the average preference does slope off when DP enters the consideration. But even so, there are still those that like torridity in there, too.

Glancing over all these numbers ... Temperatures did not really average appreciably negative for the Meteorological spring ( March-April-May). There did occur a bit more of a neggie signal in March, but that appeared to differentiate for April and May, with an interesting altitude dependency ... Worcester, for example, averaged negative for all three months combined ...whereas the Hartford and Providence rolled-up more 'noisy' decimal negative for the time period, due to April and May actually being modestly positive. So a split.. It's hard to know why that took place. By and large... where 90-some-odd percent of civility resides ( and note...I do not include the ole boy traditional a-hole stalwart impediment to progress Logan Airport "climate" site ), spring temperatures were not significantly cold. Unless you live atop a pine canopy at 1,200 feet. Seems a fair assessment was a modestly negative spring considering all. I suspect the impression of this spring as being so horrible may have more to do with lack of sunny days? Recall... despite Memorial Day weekend, last weekend, ...and now this weekends utopia days these are more at fortunately timed. For the beleaguered denizens, the historic number of cloud/measurable rainfall days that was also registered empirically along the way, feeling so deprived may be understandable. I just wonder if a sunnier spring had taken place at the same general temperature, would folks be grousing about 'days getting shorter in just two weeks.' Others in this supposed "weather" -related support group social media even go so far as all but admittedly wish the summer away by making that statement, others commiserate the notion.. But, it's a slow slow process... Unless OCD and/or some form of S.A.D. so acute is involved... most won't even notice the loss of daylight until circa August 20th at our latitude(s)... After which it starts to accelerate, granted, but that's still some two months and ten days away... Numerically, 1/6th of a year. See? You can put a spin on matters the other way, just the same... No one ever efforts to do that though - intriguing. Plus, it'll probably end up the the hottest July-September in history or something ... This is what I want for those that wish summer away... I was musing the other day about the faux poetica of weather; it's a good thing there really isn't any, because if it never snowed or even got cold again, we'd know who to blame. Ha!

Boy ... we just can't seem to break this -NAO's back. Seems despite all conjecture heretofore ... some very valid at that, we're still carrying the burden of the winter's ending slosh. When the flow concomitantly relaxed nearing the end of the winter, it just morphed into warm depots at mid and u/a altitudes and latitude and won't stop. We are in summer ... Meteorologically, and that 12z operational GFS may as well be late February. It's just doing so 20 or 30 DAM warmer. But it's a direct flow construction precipitant from a hemisphere that won't stop blocking for any reason - can't hardly disavow that either, when looking at the GEFs mean... I bet if a black hole careened through the solar system and destroyed everything... the -NAO would still remain

Sometimes the deliverance of weather seems to come by way of poetic justice ... For two days and counting ...that vestigial gyre is wobbling around the western TV Valley... VA has had 48 hours of clouds and rain... While we enjoy pretty much as close to utopia weather as is physically plausible on Earth. Yes there are fringe tastes that don't include these days in their dimensions of what perfection is... we're talking about the average preference here. Right now...out of doors, it is a top 0 moment relative to that. ...If it turns into a whole day's worth, that would be truly an amazing feat, as this degree ( puns always on purpose ) of satisfaction should be unknowable at extended lengths of time. The uncertainty principle, upon which all of reality is constructed, ensures that perfection can only be a theoretical state in a universe moving through time as a system of fractals. So, for the Tenn Valley over to the lower M/A ...where they bathed in May summery bliss ...while we ate grapple cold rains ... this satellite image could not be more mirrored: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/ And it sort of looks like 'their turn in the barrel,' doesn't it. By the way ... this is the third weekend in a row where we've lucked out on timing these sort of days. Much of Mem Day weekend was in the top 10 percentile ...and last weekend was pretty darn nice, too. Now this...

I was wondering if we may end up in a Bahama blue conveyor them two days ... ... Tropically cleansed blue sky next to bright white narrow glaciators... It's one of my favorite skies across the perennial types -

Yeah ...as far as this spring leading factors/indicators go... the continental hydro anomalies could be an offset - I'm glad someone brought this up. I've been thinking about that too. I was wondering if some of the reasons why the Euro was shirking the amplitude of the present ridge, back five days ago when it kept seeming to spontaneously 'deflate' it without having any mechanical... if some of that might have actually been an environmental feed back of having excessive rainfall out west. This ridge's wave spacing passed synoptic squarely through that region of country prior to setting up max amplitude nearing NYC ... It seems once that finished...the Euro came on board... Could all be coincidence but I don't like those so much -

Heat waves fascinating me .... ( seeing as you asked ) ... probably not 'quite' as OCD as the winter stat bent 'round deez pahts ...but, I do find them to be a worth-while study/science as far as recognizable synoptic presaging markers, and also an empirically significant sensible phenomenon that is ( imho ) not nearly respected enough. Heat should be right up there with the fab four weather phenomenon, tornadoes, floods, hurricanes and lightning. Firstly ... typically when we hear the word "heat .." it's conflated with "drought" .... 'Heat and drought already taking massive tolls due to climate change' ...etc. That's certainly true. The two "tend" to overlap. But, heat in and of its self is not a requirement for drought... Nor ( really ) is drought required for heat. They may exacerbate one another ...true, if we wanna get into that. But, we can certainly suffer a historic number of triple digit days in a summer season while maintaining only a modest drought footprint on the landscape. Case in point ...as far as I can quickly look up on the Web ...1911 was not a particularly 'drought' stricken season - it did however have big heat. Most to point ... 2012 was a huge costly season to agriculture sectors, as well as those industrial sectors that are either directly or indirectly disposed to 'normalcy' in agrarian activities ..which is a vast subsequent envelope. Corn derivatives are in shockingly broad spectrum of solid state physical componentries of society ...etc.. goes the complex integration of the environment to gear the machinery of a lot that is taken for granted... Not to make this about social commentary ... My point is, that year stymied production there, as well as direct cross over into live-stock. And the list goes on... We start getting into eco system break downs and species forced migration ( which includes Humanity limbs already ...as can be indirectly studied in Baltic migration since 2000 due to farm collapse...)... with increased frequency of associated mutations of disease -related pathogens that can be empirically, directly linked to the diaspora. But I'm digressing all over... With so many problems that can be directly related to climate busting heat numbers ...It's interesting that the list above does not include Heat ... I would also include Cold in that too... Temperature in general. I mean ....hell. One of the grand chalenges of the Astronomic sciences is to locate life on other words. They have identified, around stars, these "Goldie Locks" zones... or, regions that are close enough to melt ice, but far enough to maintain liquid water... Intrinsic in that definition is clearly a temperature concern! hello - ... With life's fragility inexorably linked to the vitality of a system, and said vitality apparently at least in part defined by the existence of about a 50 F band width of temperature, seems logical that is something we should recognize in the threat discussion.

And then the 00z suite came out ... I've been biding my time in expectation for this normalcy. All the models did this. They "tendency" the geopotential heights ( the baser metric for the pattern orientation) to elevate higher, post each successive trough passage. Such that by D10 ...all majors, the Euro, GFS, GGEM ... and the parallel GFS for that matter, actually end up on average some 10 DAM height higher as the canvased layout across all of North America. Perhaps more concomitant, the 850mb thermal layout/oscillatory waves between cool and warm plumes is also warmer on both sides. This happens ever year ...much in the same way it goes the other direction in October... ( circa ). You're in this tug-o-war between seasons ...edging cooler in time, but still seeing stubborn ridges bouncing back. Then all at once, the ridges only bounce back to a lower latitude and lower height expansion in the total averaged lay-out, are also farther south... Usually around Halloween. Recent mid October grapple and/or outright parachute odd balls we've been observing are in increasing frequency ... That's sort of a separate matter having to do with the general circulation "irregularity" of the planet in deep deep crisis due to GW... But that's a digression... In a normal autumn, one can see the kind of 'click back' period of time, if they are paying attention. This? It's the antithesis to that that also happens circa late April to Junes... Whether this will reflect in the sensible weather at the surface ( where... when etc) is an operational concern. But the mid level geopotential medium 'ends up' at a higher rest state by D10 ... sort of a hallmark entry into summer from a geophysical perspective. For those that embrace summer, ...want heat and DP and all that ... it's a better probability time for you, not so ironically... about right when it typically should at that.