Typhoon Tip

Not really no. True colors ? I’m interested in interesting meteorological phenomenon. This? ... fails to be interesting when it persists I know you really want to jar me in with that cinema persecution shit but I don’t have that kind of mood attachment to this engagement I don’t

Yeah ... the event is 84 for four days this time lol

Thanks yeah I was kind a hoping for the hemisphere of you LOL but yeah I know about tropical. I’ll look around at the others

Mm you have an interesting spin engine runnin over there. “Sick” of anything means not emotionally invested .. it means I don’t care about it anymore. Not really there yet I’m just saying I’m getting close Besides actually start checking out around mid February anyway… I start to feel the sun coming back and I don’t like to wrestle with inevitability once I sense those changes in the environment I’m ready for the next season almost immediately I change on a dime very quickly. Having said that I am also aware that we have big huge events clear into the first week of April - we all have our demons I suppose. But I feel advantage in that sense because I can always jump on the bandwagon if the system is going to be significant enough

Word ! I’m just wondering if it’s a shape thing but not so much in terms of the z-coordinate. I mean the gradient matters… Too much… Too little. And and if the holes in the atmosphere too deep relativity to hills that’s too much of a good thing ... contrasting if the holes are too shallow and the ridges aren’t that tall might end up with something like we have now. Perhaps having the right shape might be all we can hope for at this range anyway

Is there a free source ?

You realized you just doomed May-ta two flurry CAAs and a synoptic slushee for that insolence

Seriously ...what's the return rate on warm yummy Aprils ? I think 1 in 20 maybe, or ? Really not sure. I remember ... I think it was 2008 or perhaps 2010... Actually, I think we had three back to back to back years of impressively mild springs around then, but one of them...man, half the deciduous species were three quarters leafed out by Easter ... and the lawns were like melon mowed aroma three cycles in ... Girls actually looked at me - some kind of Disney alls swell thing was the air and all sins had been absolved... Now, contrast that relative utopia with the rectal glue we got stuck in for 7 years in f'n row now ... I hate April - what can I say

Getting kinda sick of this winter already too -

Vroooom - it's called 'sarcasm' ? For the record I agree...it's an attenuating factor ...not 0 - never meant to explicitly state that. Rather, that it is buried inside a large expansion of the HC where it is becoming less able to disperse and force the westerlies as readily as half a century back ... By the way, while on the subject... I'm beginning to suspect the MJO is suffering less influence because it's wave presentation is also trapped - in their weekly PDFs put out, the bullet headers are routinely stating that the waves are being destructively interfered with. I noted they made this comment during the last warm event(s) too... Discussion for climate/winter outlooks perhaps tho

Way more than one would hope, huh - lol.. Btw, I'm beginning to wonder if this -AO is really bootlegged off a huge axial tilted PV that's oddly displaced if not pulled off the pole into into a violently +WPO ...Sort of like Japan's version of a 1993-1994 -NAO ... but obviously covering a considerably larger area. Looking at this, that's a probably the most powerful linear windfield on this planet since the impact that create the moon out there in western Pac: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/CMCNA_0z/hgtcomp.html What also strikes me is how abandoned we are over on our side of the hemisphere of any PV signature ...prtty much at all. We're left in utter entropy of pattern with warbling convoluted spaghetti over here ... in case no one's noticed. I mean...we're trying time and place objects in space with this f'titude? good luck... I don't think this is sans the HC as much as it is sans anything frankly - just weird. Brian pretty much get the post award for this page on that statement - not much else to be added haha

2015 was dead in the water at this point in time, too - .. heh And, since we've at last proven that the ENSO has no meaning any longer, we have just as much chance of something like that happening based on randomality at this point... weeeeee

Funny .. I was just taking note of both the GEPs and GEFs ensemble spread and in both cases, the only uncertainty is along the axis of motion on out to sea... Heh, you can speed 'er up or slow 'er down, but you ain't gettin' 'er no closer

Plenty of cold in the hemisphere but ..yeah, the 500 mb - yah know - it looks like the engine that mechanizes the whole of the circulation eddy is nauseated - like ...sick. I have seen Chinook patterns before but that's really an anomalous variant of that... You know what that looks like ? It looks like a 1936 heat wave circulation - it's just doing it in the winter version. fascinating - strange

It does ... sure... I was just musing to Will in that blown up storm thread ... read that - it sort of offers some perspective. Namely, if faced with the same hemispheric look in the models, as they were selling ( and trends prior notwithstanding...), the whole of it would be wise to consider a more favorable outcome for snow and at least impact of some kind. This was weirdly nuanced 'wiggles' in the NAO down the stretch, weak-ish S/W mechanical forcing in the flow. Idiosyncratic if you will -. Altogether it didn't 'synergize' a better outcome - sort of defeated the original layout of potential.. it happens -

Sort of in agreement here ... ( just using your post as a launch pad - am aware no one cares... ) Kind of a broad-stroked perspective but given the past 20 years ? considering the lion's share of snow verification did not take place in a -NAO, and were in fact Pac guided, then adding that this recent NAO's handling: those two aggregated facets = f* this man None of that lends to even wanting to engage in this as a hobby at this time. Ha, can you imagine the professional that is by trade, forced to examine and eat the shit of this pattern? I mean the poor schmuck - LOL I just would rather swipe the eraser lever on this drawing toy known as Internet weather charts... and start a brand new paradigm. If that means returning to the faster flow, progressive needle threading, so be it. We had better productivity that other way. No but seriously ... it seems this convoluted pattern/nebularity isn't handled very well. That Euro 00z cannot be resolved - even by that particular model's touted acumen and monstrosity of daunting complexity built in, that's a convoluted exercise in fractal apoplexy it's trying to manage in the D5-10. And given its own recent performance during this pattern ( *relative to just that regime ) ... well, it's beyond its wheelhouse anyway. What leaps out at me through it all... the PNA - go wonder ... Pac guided ... we just can't seem to pop a western ridge/+PNAP expression, which is needed for basic wave position mechanical arguments.

Yeah I confused you by using the expression ‘useful to us’ ... really the impetus there was just the NAO handling alone. ...but if the blocking were batter positioned it may parlay your next system there. Which could be okay anyway ... just sayn’

Sorry ... models pos‘ed their way up to this “-NAO” which I put in quotes because this? is not a very convincingly useful block ... Its S displaced so far it’s really more like a a ‘north based subtropical ridge.’ I do however believe if the 1/4 system was deeper mechanically rooted it would have fed into that and perhaps modulate more of D. Str vicinity ... Short of that/either way that’s not a good look

Bingo ... Yeah, I was just musing that in the blown up storm thread, how the NAO seems to be shirking/'back-stabbing' on that previous look. I speculate as the PNA emerges we'll start seeing the velocities ( all around ) speed up again. ...Not sure why it is important to know that - maybe it's because I don't like storm prospecting in fast flows.. personal bias. Sorry lol.

I guess I must have a differing opinion about the last 24 hours of guidance blend, re the larger/super synoptic hemisphere than y'all - it's all good.. But I see a tendency here to fug -around with the blocking ( AO and NAO correct up entering the 2nd week), while the mid latitude flow is speeding up the dailies/operational versions -anew- between Hawai'i and California... That's all code for the previous p.o.s. speed pattern I realize the snow storm a couple weeks ago in Dec was actually in that faster regime - so that also points out factually that it's not a death sentence to winter necessarily either. That said, I don't find the fast atmospheric paradigm as being inherently favoring the type of stuff the cinema weather charter is seeking in this particular social media...that's all.

I don't know if that's entirely true ... you're making an assumption that groups people together, without knowing them ... My biggest problem is that I go to fast, and leave out prepositions here, or type words like 'now' when I meant 'not' ... or, jump to the next sentence before finishing... throwing off the reader. I then have to run back along text and fix shit all the damn time - those cause distractions that don't lend to reading so, ... oh well Keep in mind, also - I'm trying for discussion and opinion sharing among other Meteorologists - they know that sort of 'vernacular' just fine.

oh ... talk about a dyslexic break - the word is 'isohypsic' Wasn't aware I was typing it that other way... Oops sorry. But, ...lol, my guess is that word also doesn't mean much to people.

Lol... know what? I'm already f'n sick of that damn thing - ...

oh god...what did I say - look man ... I was doin' other shit today and thought oh yeah... Open web --> wish I did not open up the web. I don't think I'm making anything up when looking at this shit - sucks asshole for storm/winter drama seekers. I think what happens is ...the tenor over does it in either direction as part of crowd physics. It's human... don't sweat it. But, the fervor does tend to out pace the indicators, where as I tend to ignore that sort of thing. It's just in my nature ...so, it may seem like I'm 'trying' to compensate for a mood or something, but I'm pretty much consistently being honest as much as I can.. If it fits the tenor of the hour, it fits... if it doesn't ... oops

Not a good look for Jan 8-12th either... Two days ago I admit I saw some alarming signals in there for either a top tier potential ... maybe an aggregated series but wow! The 240 hour Euro and GFS ... eradicate the NAO... and show signs of speeding the flow back up again. Interestingly ... the CPC tele's sort of relfect that ... with AO/NAO recoveries going on out toward the end. Better hope the Pac reorients or heh - doesn't mean winter's over... no, just that said "alarming signals" .... are no longer there. hahaha... Maybe we'll see them come back... maybe this opens the door to a whole new paradigm of delivery ... I can make one prediction that is above the 90th percentile accurate ... if this two-step head game goes on ... I predict I am going to start fantasizing for not only another 80 F week in mid February ...this time, I want the NAO to go f- itself in March. Leaves us the hell alone. That way we can just commit to an early spring/warm season and finally cash-in on GW in a meaningful way around here... lol