Typhoon Tip

This is why ... or some variation of it https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwi037iHs-riAhVlTd8KHf9YA4kQzPwBegQIARAC&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.psychologytoday.com%2Fus%2Fblog%2Fbrain-babble%2F201501%2Freverse-seasonal-affective-disorder-sad-in-the-summer&psig=AOvVaw08i_qdf1MiauJq-a_kS-7t&ust=1560650703025889 ... and at times Im stressed not to believe the crucible of time hasnt concentrated the population of this particular social media to be more likely of that ilk than that article's purported 10%

You mean like this ... https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/14/us/greenland-sudden-ice-melt-wxc/index.html ...course, it is CNN -

https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/14/us/greenland-sudden-ice-melt-wxc/index.html

ever since the FV3' came on line as the GFS ... we've been heading toward a new ice age... ha!

We're in wait for the other shoe to fall... ( I get the feeling) Frankly, this entire GFS solution is suspect - it seems to not conform at all when extending a quasi-zonal flow over extended time ranges. Namely... ridging tends to evolve when post zonal flows. This isn't just statistics; it's based upon physical equations and why zonal flow --> ridging. Having said that... it's possible that what we are really looking at is coincidence more so than failure - so to speak. There could be some systemic/larger synoptic factors that are suppressing any attempt to grow an eastern ridge as a sort of perpetual offset...? The result is a zonal look but ...looks can be deceiving - it's more like rasping the heights off. It wouldn't actually be difficult to assess what those are, either. For one, the 'inside slider' ( btw, that's a back-office expression for troughs that descend south inland through California out west... ) on previous runs is all but suddenly not there this run. Basic wave-length arguments gives the model an excuse not to raise heights as much in the east. Two, this weird Maritime trough persistence that all models, including the GGEM and Euro are also maintaining, despite the overall +NAO modality. Should not be there - not at this time of year. You don't sustain +NAO troughs that by virtue of usual girth and massiveness extend all the way back down into NE in June. That requires steep gradient and fast flow to stretch the L/W lengths sufficiently ( think winter 1993-1994). In this case...that is diametrical to raising heights over the eastern seaboard. Which as far as this whole handling goes... ( and I realize you just couldn't wait for me to right all this tedium ) I'm not sure the models really have this right.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/file/us-warmest-day-year-mapjpg

yup .... ( CON hasn't had a month with an above normal max T yet this year. Dec 18 was the last. ) = current Global statistical outlier ...and an interestingly repeating one going back over the last 20 years, where some ~ 2/3rds of all 240 months that's been the case.

Unless things have changed significantly in the last 10 years or so ... the high and low moving together along the 100 year average, apex in that week... third week of July... There are other factors... Like, Boston is a stupid climate locale due to it's proximity to the ocean. They should have picked a location over Metrowest ...where population is actually 'touched' by ambient air - I guess it matters to a pilot walking across a tarmac. But, that aside... it's like that over eastern U.S. mid latitudes. The perennial seasonal max is then... That doesn't say anything about "extremeness" though... It's not impossible that you may get the spurious 110 earlier on...but lengthen 90 to 93 later... As we know, climate hides extremes.

The perennial warmest time of the year for Boston is between the 18th and 24th of July... Just sayn'

well... for what it's (not) worth - The GEFs -based tele's at both agencies are not just signaling a warm end of month into the first bit of July ...they are doing it with bright coherency - despite the utter lack of support from the either the operational Euro ( which is of course a cross-guidance comparison ) or the GFS for that matter. There is little discord among the individual members at CPC ( https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/climwx.shtml ) for positive NAO into by the end of week one extending well beyond... Meanwhile, the AO is also positive, ...while the PNA is dropping precipitously .. We should be generating a heat wave pattern here... yet, we only get colder. This is odd... something is going awry - either this is a modeling issue, or an environmental one... Either way, it is unusual - Almost wonder if we don't all the sudden have the Euro arrive one of these times with 600 DAM dome situated over Dayton Ohio ...

It's an unusual look.. That "Day 8-10 500mb Mean" product over at PSU E-Wall's site showing that vast neutral-positive NAO circulation construct up over the northern arc of the Atlantic Basin, pan-wide..., while simultaneously maintaining a negative geopotential anomaly N-E of Bermuda ...is subtly unusual. That's a poor teleconnection; there should be ridging there... More over, the heights E of 100 W over North America should also be rising more as well. The operational guidance are even carving out an "inside slider" over California ... en route to establishing at least an ephemeral Great Basin trough axis... while not really raising heights back east to conserve mass. Something is off... but - Some of this may be good ole fashioned pattern-change model instability. But .. I've also been observing more and more teleconnector failures in recent years ... possibly related to 'you-know-what' .. Unknown, but the fast flow winters that feature wind anomalies ( and this is noted by FAA and commercial piloting et al, too ) is also related. Meanwhile, we keep registering only modestly above normal temperatures relative to the background GW curve. India is in a 30-day heat wave, "one of the longest in history" ... https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/14/india/india-heat-wave-deaths-intl/index.html Here's the paragraph that I find intriguing if plausibly telling: "...A delayed monsoon has contributed to the prolonged hot weather, arriving in southern India around June 8, seven days later than usual. Northern India is still waiting for its annual rains..." The circulation engine for the Monsoon happens because of rising air along the foot of the Himalaya's ... which is accelerated in the spring. Mass conservation draws atmosphere off the ocean regions surrounding the continent... moving copious moisture inland to fuel rains. Speculating, but ... if the atmosphere is warming top to bottom associated with you-know-what, that mitigates the acceleration in spring, because it caps the instability - the engine doesn't rev up... So, all you have is heat. Not a bad entry hypothesis for a scientific investigation - usually.. they do come in simpler precepts. Anyway, weather and climate 'unusual'-ness everywhere is becoming a lesser commodity. Our relative temperate climate behavior over mid latitudes of North America, when the rest of the world appears to be bearing greater impacts by perceived causally -related climate changes ... is perhaps an insidious anomaly in its own rite. Namely ...because folks don't usually associate relative quiescence with a problem. We have calamities... floods in the mid west. Tornadoes... Hurricanes... etc.. But, separating these from the multi-century frequency/return rates is difficult at best, otherwise an arduous, vitriol -resulting task. Beating out perennial Monsoonal timing by multiple weeks ... with deadly 30-day heat waves .. might just be easier to differentiate from the background climate. We don't seem to have that issue in the U.S. as frequently. This whole climate debate is like that. Difficult. I've opined this to ad nauseam elsewhere... but the paraphrase goes like: Humanity's failing ... is that it doesn't tend to respond to "threats" it cannot directly perceive through one of the corporeal senses. We do.. .and we are. But not nearly enough. Think long and hard about what that means... and how the insidious nature of climate change, moving apace slower than the daily tactile experience, becomes GW's greatest weapons against us - our own apathy. While it erodes vitality ...we adjust. More erosion... more adjusting... So long as that adjusting doesn't interfere with our daily ways and means ... our corporeal senses aren't witnessing a gray-green Hollywood Tsunamis tilting up the horizon, or a continuous lightning producing 10 mile high global Haboob, and we're just too easily inclined to rest in our laurels and assume things will always work out like they always do. Until, it erodes the final piece in some other major inextricable factor and you're left without a recourse. Probably ... a complete phytoplankten species collapse and the ocean's failing to aerate the planet with breathable air ... [ enter myriad of not-impossible-sci-fi-plots here ] You know, the Noah's Arc parable escapes people ...? The hidden moral to that story is what always mattered, not the absurdity of building a boat to house a male and female of every species in order to repopulate the planet. I mean, ... duh. Beyond the obvious logistical impossibility, which precedes the story its self, no. It's about not laughing in the face of, or at, danger... It's about not being complacent. Abstractly, about not procrastinating simply because you are comfortable now. In that story, the townspeople ridiculed in derisive humor while Noah's dogged determination persevered through it all.. And his boat bobbed along side the bloated corpses ... Okay, so this ending is embellished... I'm not even religious, at all really...

Mm... not sure to whom you are directing this... But, ... the period in question deals with establishing an "above normal" regime... or not, I don't believe anyone questioned summer in July

I like the idea ... You delved more into possible causality then I, but however we get there, ... 'shutting off the meridional' thing is critical in my estimation. And it's not so much meridional per se. it's just that for whatever reason, meridional has doomed eastern N/A this spring. I see the impending zonal flow that's getting pretty solid consistency as a plausible attempt to signal that ending... I could certainly be premature in that assessment, but, like I said, it's a fairly robust signal at both agencies ..CDC/CPC, and the operational tenors are strongly hinting. I'm also seeing subtle 'oddities' about our climate that suggest we may be turning into new paradigm ... Not saying no more snow folks... But, perhaps faster than some think or would like to admit, too. One doesn't not have to search long and far for evidence. The web? Yeah, ..it's incredible useless these days ...as every podunk immoral a-wipe imaginable has in greed multitude managed to turn it into agenda powder keg .. in not a click-a-mouse for petty profit.. Makes it hard to glean veracious information. But, there are source out there nonetheless... and they discuss peer reviewed sciences regarding species migration ... or in weather/climate its self, the increased 20" snow event frequency ... increasing +SD dew point days...etc etc... These are all concomitant with warming climate.

1 false 2 tentatively true 3 tentatively true overall grade for interpretation/comprehension... D-

In all seriousness ...I'm beginning to suspect - well have for awhile - that we might end the month into early July on the hot side of normals. How far ...obviously, TBD But, the we are getting a persistent signal from the GEFs for mass-field changes .. in the less reliable PNA, but combinatory with the -NAO neutralizing gives that all a nod just the same. And with all the guidance' MJO curves showing some robustness in the right side of Wheeler, I think we could again be sniffing out a pattern modulation - but one that's oriented warmer. The previous changes modulated away from persistent cloud and low registry precipitation/ cool diurnals but milder nights hiding the misery of it.. .into a similar circulation construct, but just a warm variation. Which hasn't been bad for us since... We been enjoying nice weather as of late... Anyway, we see a 3 to 4 day zonal stint of flow across the conus and synoptic 101 is that zonal flows tend to proceed ridges...so seeing the extended Euro do so... and the la-la range GFS flirt with it may not in fact be bad fits.

well I'll be - ... if it ain't the Euro, with an actual Sonoran heat release beginning D 8.5 ...arriving in the upper OV D9 ..10 ... Could it be? The day that winter enthusiasts must report for their perennial prison term -

been perfect really ... for responsible perspectives, we had tepid swimming pool atmosphere over last weekend under surplus sun, then a beneficial rain earlier in the week ... Then yesterday, more utopia. Now, more beneficial rain...and tomorrow, modeled params point to more serenity in charm. It's the perfect balance of watering and life giving sun, in the absence of anything even remotely destructive. no one can complain. enjoy -

nah...usually in this sort of scenario the mid and high deck peals away associated with the loss of deeper UVM ... and as it does it either exposes low level butt pack ...or, it immediately fills in, but either way ... does so below the 700 mb dry intrusion. you have to wait for that wave of lp down the coast to move past your latitude and the winds come around and then might break up... probably times for about 8:24 pm

It's more than the mere showers you're characterizing ( why you do this .. who knows) ... but yes, less than inches. That simple... You can spin it to seem right if you want, but you are in some greater fraction also wrong -

Heh...that's looks like more than a few showers there in CT over the next couple three hours...

I see his point though ... I had this conversation with Ekster years ago...when the ETA was just becoming the NAM, how the model was kind of like a 'victim of its own success'. The problem with immense computing power operating on very small grid spacing ...means you're starting to tap into the uncertainty principle - as a metaphor. I don't mean really down at the quantum scales.. .but.. .in some ways, something similar happens. Just apply electrons to a system that 'predicts' based upon very finite inputs for finite scales, you end up with overly emphasized forces and factors that "giga" motion the system into unwanted results - in effect, you open Pandora's box of fractals. . Models can't ultimately predict the future? That's not really what's happening when the models are fired off... They are predicting likely outcomes, with ever decreasing probability for success in doing so at that, for every quantum instant of time that elapses further and further into the future. But the actual reality of the future cannot really be ascertained without actually being in the future, because of mercurial nature of ( almost ) unavoidable chaos. By the time we get to day fives, we're ...I dunno somewhere in the 40th to 60th percentile for success, and it's dependent upon the 'stability' of the pattern at hand there. Day ten? Forget it... 10 maybe 20% tops.. Which means, by those deeper range time spans the unpredictable, unknowable future circumstances that emerge along the way ( chaos ) have corrupted the futility of models down to guess work, all but entirely. There is a theoretical limit to that success rate. Models can max out. We're not there yet. But techniques, such as ( maybe ) the Euro 4-d normilzation schemes, which are remarkably successful at picking and choosing those spontaneously emergent distractions that need to be 'canceled out', can be applied to models with NAM-like finite grids. Who knows..just spit-ballin' there. But there's room to improve ... and all those improvements combined, we'll never get 100% accurate at some theoretical limit, because ultimately ... the uncertainty of chaos cannot be preordained. The only way to do so ... as hinted by that parenthetical 'almost' above ... is to control the future. Science fiction ...for now. But, if there can be conjured technology that governs the quantum momentum state of every particle that embodies the fluid medium of the atmosphere, sufficiently that it suppresses "butterflies" .. then you don't have to predict the weather: the solution is, push this button if you want a sunny day. But you know what's funny ...? In a philosophical sense, even in such a fantasy futuristic world, there is uncertainty in a system that 100% capable of modulating the weather. Because there's no guarantee that the operator won't be influenced by either a foreign agent, or lapse into some sort of psychosis that entices him/her to push typhoon buttons. God have mercy on those souls in that realm of existence.

Hm .. the former GFS had multiple biases, each one could skew reality in their own right and at times mimick the other bias' ... at other times, offset. Really frustrating that way... For example, the model's progressive bias - it ablates the tops of ridges down too quickly in the mid range. This has feed backs that cause new errors... for one, ends up increasing confluence over eastern Canada ( just one example in many ...), which then we have overly strong BD/west moving CAD signals... That is a cold bias result, in a model with a warm boundary layer problem. Zoink There's other areas where is seems to contradictory bias its self... Maybe that fooled the testers/QC evaluators ( ha ha...kidding here) because between heat wave boundary layers of 114 F at Nashua NH, while given least excuse imaginable to snow in D.C. from a BD cold air mass in July ... you end up with the right temperature for NYC. Yea ...see? good model.

It'll be interesting to see if that general rain with embedded downpours over N. NJ clips CT or not..

Agree ... Like I said earlier, Euro may be too anxious to sans the blocking tendency we've enjoyed since circa March. It's been a crushing 70 days of -NAO tendency...the likes of which I don't think I've seen since perhaps late Novie thru early Jan 2004 ... Only happening as precisely and exquisitely wrongly timed for summer enthusiasts.. .ha wah wah - Anyway ... the Euro's been bucking for much less blocking now some six cycles and counting... Even despite the D10 cold front ( which looks dubious for other reasons) on it's 12z run is doing so in a neutral NAO (hint) ... at this time of year, I'd like to see actually more -NAO for a front that cleaning...

I have the PDF demo for it but the site says it exceeds the file size limit. Pretty comprehensive comparison.