Typhoon Tip

Definitely feelin' nastier with torridity out there,.. and according to Mesowest/URL sourcing ... DPs are nearing 70 at most ASOS', while temps eclipse 80. KFIT is 84/68 and KASH is 83/70 .. These are 8 deg temp bounces this last hour. Early cu streets are are not showing as robust turrets as previous mornings... Maybe we've finally normalized those lapse rates I was mentioning a while ago :/ was hoping for more cloud photogenetics.. we'll see.

A front limping into the region tomorrow ( Wednesday ...) with (probably) subtle but crucial theta-e pooling along and ahead of it needs to be watched for local training. Sometimes trend in situ an air mass, in this case convection proficiency is up, is useful. We seem to have sufficiently steep mid level lapse rates, producing hit or miss gully-washers despite having been challenged with SBCAPE. Tomorrow's boundary stalls/frontalysis and would likely pool DP, so.. implicating more surface based CAPE up underneath lingering lapse structure aloft might be over producing by some ... It doesn't take much for sensitive triggering and usually once it is pulled, some hapless town/county gets pounded for headline. It's funny ...I was on a bike path doing 25 mile loop a couple days ago, and for about 1.5 mile's worth of distance ... it rained hard enough to gray tint the air with sun shining thru at a slant... I got to the end of the path and looped around to find this skinny glaciated CB with a crispy edge ... and as I headed back down the trail, I punched right back through the same rain shaft... At the other end of the trail, I was seeing the narrow CB that was actually being fed by yet narrower updraft edge, was still festering. Hot and dry at either end of the bike path; and I'm of course soaked to the panty-line with wet shoes and mud on my apparel. I go inside and shower and change and chill on the web for a bit...maybe 30 minutes... head out to the car, and that narrow CB was still festering away over the same region of space. There's probably like 2" of rain over 2-pixel's worth of area by then, no doubt. That was all in this air mass with no real triggers that day other than butterfly farts and unicorn dreams... So, I'm thinking/wondering that having that same air mass in place with an actual 'reason' for air convergence to align thru the area should result - we'll see.

It was an interesting meteorological phenomenon - perhaps unnoticed... I don't know. But, typically backdoor boundaries don't come in this way. As you/we know ...there is more typically a build up of higher sfc pressure in/over the GOM, and then mass- discontinuity restoring rolls on down SW fills in everywhere east of the Berks'... taking Kevin out of contention for bigger heat with violent denial.. We did not actually raise surface pressure in the GOM this time, however. We lowered the pressure south ... and this instantiated the discontinuity from the other direction. I think that is interesting, and the NAM has 08 wind directions on the FOUS into BOS yesterday... June sun saved us here in Middlesex. In April we'd have been jammed up with that skud strata right through tomorrow morning but we've processed it out. The zephyrs are still ESE here in Ayer and though it's bounced to 83/71 and is starting to feel it,...clearly by satellite we are still mixing the slab out. The cu fields over the Worcester Hills are moving this way - I almost wonder if we get a late high... but probably Logan stays butt banged. ... not sure what others are noticing but there are GEF tele's and EPS modal suggestions for heat wave potential next week. Sort of 'cross-guidance' support. We'll see.

It's frustrating ... for heat/convection/summer enthusiasts, but, it's understandable in the hypothetical (which is actually more theoretically organized in papers that are emerging, too). Scott once referred to it as the Pacific pee-pond or something hilarious like that..but the humor is rooted in truth as most humor agonizingly does. Look at the global SST layouts for ...what, that past 23.47 years ..heh. It's always 90% of the areal expanse of oceanic mass out there having sfc temperature in gaudy yellows, oranges in reds. Oh, sure...sometimes you get the Kalvin-Hem. waves down there in a faux NINA signature right on the Equator ...like now, eh hm. Anyway, the coupled oceanic-atmospheric model imposes a massive forcing on the atmosphere in the form of "ridge potential" It's not always going to look like a ridge - that is quoted because ...it's more like a base-line restoring force? Kind of like the llv curl vector east of the Greens/Whites in NE... You want measure a wind coming from the ENE (necessarily) along/in that tuck geography, but, if/when the atmosphere need less impetus to get the wind to tuck, look out! Same sort of deal ... the flow over Canada leans on a tendency ...and whenever compensators relax, the tendency takes over. The rest state is more NW than it use to be, because the Pac westerlies of merely vaguely situated farther N ...even if in mere kilometers, if it does so everywhere west of the American continental geography, the wind over the geography of America will respond. The winters do this too.. but what's fascinating is that the HC is also concurrently remaining bloated ...and this is causing increased ambient jet velocities - it introduce a whole bevy of different headaches. But as far as summers, we're getting snow QPF in eastern Ontario under the solstice and it ain't because of super volcanism or cometary impact scenarios. I'm referring to it as the Pacific folding pattern... There were papers written in the early 1990s believe it or not, that were based upon early/primitive climate-change models...that predicted NE Pac ridge propensities leading to cooling over N/A ... it's like we are seeing a perverse verification of that ... but more so in the tendency if you will. interesting.

That's likely going to typify this summer ... The extended range model solutions often bulging the season-continental ridge expansion to engulf the eastern Lakes/NE regions... only to have the mid range solution "cancel" the look - get used to that relay. Then, when those mid-terms get into nearer terms ...say 120 ...96 < ..we end up like the Euro 90+ for at least one afternoon before the next CC-attributed Pac folding pattern dumps another cold orgasm into Ontario to enable the local neurosis all over again... End results, we either average out to the back-ground climate-change that's decimals above normal...or, perhaps +1, ...sort of under the radar. Either way, we'll be above while still ending up with blue in the color coding by NASA when compared/relative to the rest of the world per their monthly state of the climo press releases. It's rather predictable ...

Still don't see much indication that the ridge failure to propagate east of ~ Detroit, old head-game of 2-step to suppress heat for any reason imaginable from ever really getting to New England, is going to change over the next 2-weeks ...but, we'll see. We'll be modestly above normal ...maybe even a tick or two more than that, before the next ablation comes shunning on down...

I'm not going to sit here and arrogantly intone as though I know that is not true... even though I don't think that happens - personally. I don't care if I'm wrong, but this did this the last 5 years Kevin... We had a early eastern heat dome decay and it never came back... some years it was July 4...some years earlier, but there was permanent NW shearing axis that got established after early heat, and rendered the rest of the summers pedestrian... and no muscle was capable of changing the NW jet persistent flow through eastern Canada - when that happens... no. sorry. We'll see if this year bucks the trend, but, I admit to not knowing if this is just a local time-span statistical grouping ( noise-based random faux pattern) or if it's keyed into CC but I suspect the latter "to some degree" - sorry, had to on the pun but here's the rub...we've been above normal despite The problem is perception versus numerology part company ...for a variety reason in the former. But I don't wanna write a sermon no one reads so I'll leave it that.. Simplest terms? Heat haters have been lucky-ish... It could have been worse... The rest of the world has been warmer relative to norms than here. Mm, 'relativity' ...gets ya every time. I've often thought it ironic... that the civilization of western/Industrial foundation most (probably) guilty of anthropomorphic GH terraforming, is being enabled NOT to see the extend of the damage the most - weird. I think it's Gaia turning up the dial on the oven to the 'Clean' notch - which it can't do if the U.S. suffers enough to change it's profligate ways - so it protects us...and makes us think it's somewhere else ... muah haha

not necessarily .., not sure why the ridge in the west "means" that - but ...if you mean there is a 'supply' ? okay - but ...I think it's just as plausible we shunt summer down this year and then have a cold snap and boner lube early snow threats that only smear out into more gradient speed shut down of winter... global warming is f up the baseline pattern climatology and it's all new...and get persistent in that newness how long before I'm not the only one admitting this. btw ...there are noted Mets that are not on these social mediaspheres that already see it happening, too -

Uh .. wouldn’t that already have failed after a week of 85ers o’re 60 DPs

I'm seeing similarities in the current guidance ( for the next ~ 10 days ) to the last several summers ...really going back to 2010, where I'd say 2/3rds .. 3/4 of them did this. We'll see if this goes on to do it... but, those in the majority demoed early heat that collapsed into some sort of hemispheric anchored NW flow regime - uninspired heat the rest of the way. The extended ranges are moving a heat ridge to about Detroit, then... holding it in position while heights fall and erode it from the west side of its arc - the total evolution is that the ridge never gets here... and ends ups folding south under said permanent Maritime trough. Welcome to persistently ablating/shunting "big heat" SW of eastern Canada and New England included in that general geographic scope. it's in the present guidance... Not sure it will characterize the summer ...but I definitely saw that antic take place more times than not, over more summers than not, in the last 10 years. What we just had was "big heat" on the thermometers due to local enhancing of slope winds under a purified sky ... It really maximized and and made for big heat numbers ... but not really via the big heat pattern - it was wasn't antecedent in play. It's a bit of conjectural language ..sure, but most know of Sonoran heat release/ejection, and that air mass then ascends in latitude arcs over a continental pig ass heat ridge and then actually we get our hottest atmosphere at a regional all inclusive scope from a W or even NW trajectory out of a 24 C/850 mb 12z sounding over southern Ontario...etc... That's Aug 1975 and July 2012 (?) ... The recent heat didn't originate in that way.

Lol, nice opportunity to curmudgeonly soapbox. Sociopaths... period that's it. Sociopathy in humanity is far more pervasive - and hidden- as a social crisis than anyone from the intellectual ranks of social-sciences to regular folks are really aware. Oh, the former carry the brand and PHDs and all that ... but they are all clueless. Sociopathy comes in gray form. There are 'compartmental' sociopaths (CEOs and COPs). Broad-spectrum sociopaths ( Serial killers). Conditional sociopaths ... (snap/anger/violent personality disorders that are transient - 'wasn't aware of my rage' types). All these types of head-spaces are unencumbered by limitations of morality and empathy, and therefore, tend to excel to become leaders. Humanity's interesting in that way.. We have a hierarchical social command structure that is instinctual... and, based upon alpha-beta-gamma, but the best suited to alpha roles are the ones that in fact cut ties with empathy and make decisions without moral implications. It's kind of a paradox - ...But, no, what is really happening is that they are viruses, mimicking the responsible leaders, who also have to make tough decisions at times - because both types make decisions that are tough, so they seem like the same character. That's the DNA that gets the virus into the cell... after that? Mmm, they are motivated for different reasons. The sociopaths are self-centered, deceptive while doing it... or in/for the special interest group ideology. While the 'responsible leaders' really are thinking about the welfare of all. Add in post Industrial Revolution, convenience addling --> thoroughly ( thus ) stupefied civility ... this doesn't provide a very effective detection of assholes, who are thus more able to ascend these to heads of state and corporations because society is too distracted/pacificied in their resource orgasm sniff them out during their ascent. Well, dams fail because of it all... It's always happened, but it just happens more now.

Hey y'all... Serious question here. Are any of you Science Fiction fans? Here's the deal. I have a tentative publication date for a Science Fiction novel, "Dominion," set for release during the 2nd or 3rd week in June, 2020. The story is not Meteorological fiction, shockingly. I think we cover all aspect of weather-related fiction in here already. I do have a Facebook page I have recently created, designated to authorial relations and exposure. Is that something you may be interested in? I have also launched ( 'launched' ha, as it was five clicks of turmoil) a new Instagram account. Despite my day-job as a DB software consultant, I am quite "neophytic" with the pan-dimensional intricacies of social media architecture and strategies. It's just not my bag, and I haven't really engaged enough with it. Nevertheless, my publisher is hot-to-trot about getting their various authors less diffident about those sorts of engagements, and so.. I now have these formats accessible. So, if anyone would like, I can send along the #'s and @'s for Insta. and FB respectively. During this staged release process ( apparently ... I am also vanilla in how this marketing in literature happens, too ) we still have to go through a cover-release, then a book release thing on FB ... and that has a PR development plan, a-to-zinc. So, right now, a PR specialist hired by my publishing house is just getting started with my project - tentatively scheduled as such. I cannot guarantee you will enjoy the work. I cannot guarantee it will be written in a meter and turn of phrase that is very pleasing to the voyager reader. But... it does deal in three component of modern science that are hot, fused of together in one creative tapestry: Biology, Psychology, and Solid State Physics, as the engineers of the story use Biology to create SSP, and inadvertently and quite consequentially voyages into spiritualism. I will also mention, the SciFi that was created as the scaffold for the thematic arc, has recently been discovered as plausibly true by Sir Roger Penrose et al... This story was conceptualized and in greater proportion, composed years prior to Penrose, so ... it's not just light sabers and blaster guns stuff. This work is a real old school science fiction in form, with a modern twist of camaraderie among characters in rich interaction that help propel the story. One may notice right off the bat ... "Meteorology" is not in that list of disciplines? I think we definitely engage in enough weather-related fiction in this social media all ready - don't you think Anyway, it is for those that may appreciate sci-fi in general.

Bingo! Nothing motivates would-be noblemen and state's people like the moods of their constituency - the only other way around that in a democratic voter-society is cheating. Thank god there's no ... Wait a sec - Humor aside, if the ballast of lever pullers abandon the profligate presumption of entitlement to natural resources... finally connecting with the consequence-causality circuitry [ add finite science here .. ], the complexion of the office seeker is forced to change. But note I said 'complexion.' Execution in keeping with those promises that answer to ethos is entirely up to institutions put in place over the generations, charged with the responsibility to ensure those elected officials are 'owning up' ... It's a good thing we haven't seen any attempt at the dissolution of those agencies and institution, then, right ? Wait a sec - The total model of corruption could not be more patently clearly afoot in IR -based societies,. And, I still posit that the main reason why such brazen antics go down, and there is only passive moral recovery or even much vitriol at all, is because of post-Industrial Revolution giving rise to conveniences that rescue the existential state of society at all levels, from having to eat the shit of their own mistakes. But, the environment in that metaphor, quite succinctly becomes the dumping ground. In a baser 101 philosophical perspective: nature is about balancing positive and negatives... That's it. All of reality exist because at some quantum Plank scale...there is an imbalance that is attempting to get to neutral. That tug of war integrates to a Universe of time...space... energy and your life! And everything and anything that can be perceived happens because of that scaffold. So, it is quite logical to assume that 5 billion Industrial breast feeders are getting fat, something else has to be getting skinny. Metaphors are fun... Simple terms, if we lived in a reality where mistakes resulted in pain? Oh f yeah, people would sit up and take notice ...immediately. But the IR wipes humanity ass, by gobbling up even more resources to "save" them from having to conserve .. protecting all from seeing the consequences. Thus, the ease at convenience to deny, becomes self-reinforcing: 'I denied it last week, I got a raise, therefore, denial is right.' And that becomes a runaway selfish culture among many other abhorrent characters.

Thought y'all might find this interesting... https://phys.org/news/2019-12-el-nio-event-year.html

This goes along with the expansion ( Globally) of the Hadley Cell into the lower Ferrel latitudes... Among the charming symptoms: shifting mean storm tracks farther N of previous century(s) observation, is recently noted; speeding up the tropospheric deep layer wind velocities. This may be decadally ephemeral .. lasting while the polar regions are still sufficiently differentiable relative to the subtropics in winters, such that surplus latent heat stows in the lower latitudes cause increasing slope/ geopotential gradients everywhere in the ambient means. When/if the polar regions continue to warm, this particular effect may wane into a circumstance unknown. North America tending to run cooler ( though still warmer than normal at times ... ) relative to the other continental areas of the planet, due to it's unique geographical circumstance in the total Pacific-North American loading pattern - which Pac heat --> tendency for increased NE Pacific ridging ...which concomitantly supplies an enhanced tendency for western/central Canadian deep layer circulation response and NW/N conveyor(s). And... the MJO. It is just going to behave in concert and form, in it's own way, relative to the HC forcing/changes, just as well... This is not discussing how any of GW and the MJO effects say, Australia, or Indonesia or the Eurasian regions or anywhere else... Africa and Mediterranean climates ..etc. It's just mentioning that there are noteworthy and observable ongoing changes in the N/A circulation tendencies.

Keep in mind ... PDO means Pacific "Decade" Oscillation. These vicissitudes in the SST layouts will come and go, usually per local time scaled sea-surface stressing events. But they are as that suggest, ephemeral. They offer the jagged ups and down along the longer time-scaled curves, the typical behavior of any of these statistical inference efforts in nature. By conceptual understanding of what that means, there can be transient spans that may not represent the actual PDO. Right now the longer, 'weightier' curve shows that the index has been positive since the year 2015 or so, as I'm sure someone's pointed out .. Some of the months spanning 2018.. mm, the index is not exactly overbearingly positive, with many monthly values within mere decimals of 0, with a couple of blips in there where the index fell minutely negative ( < 0 ). I'm having difficulty finding the exact numbers for 2019 ( to date ), but multiple sources match one another and indicate the curve is sloping presently toward neutral ( 0 ), whether it is actually there yet. In any case, PDO correlation against present and -though-to-be correlated patterns, would need to be tested at relative PDO strengths. In most scientific statistics, by definition, when a curve approaches 0, that usually infer "N/S" ( no skill ) which mean equal probabilities.

Uh, "yes even" You'd be a sociopath if you altered peoples genetic construct without complete transparency and mutual concurrence ... I mean, this is silly at this point.

Wow ...so ur kinda sorta out there, huh Not me... no one f's with my DNA thank you. I think you'll find that is the consistent position among most human beings whom are proposition with the idea of having their innate sense of wonder chromosomely castrated. Yeeeah just sayn'

I don't believe that assumption logically follows ... ( bold ) If one employs technologies that do not profligate resource consumption, than there's no problem - that's just math. The paradox you mentioned is an economics theorem; not sure I see the logic of why that means we should not supplant fossil fuels with green/renewable energy sourcing, when the latter drops the "exhaust" of humanity below the thresholds that adversely affects/effects the vitality and eventual gestalt of the total environment. The theorem defaults to non-detrimental. That's what this is all about - can the background absorb without forcing - The complete "commune" vision of Humanity has zero plausibility and/or logistically managed reality to it. There's too much power for ingenuity and wonder for advancing discovery as part of our evolutionary gift to withstand these motivations, which requires capacity that far exceeds the bucket and lever society paradigm. What I'm saying is... tech is part of our evolution as the true tool manipulator species - you can't remove that any more than you can ask someone to ... remove a hand or a foot. You can't do it. The solution is harmony - it's just that right now... we generate more din and discord, when we gear resource acquisition straight into the machinery greed-based economics. That much I agree with in principle/over-tones to some of what you imply.

O, I C ... No I don't actually... what the in hell do all these abbreviations mean in that product's context? What's "PV" ... does that mean polar vortex. What in the f are "WEO" ... "IEA" and NPS... Oh, I see ... some of those are expanded in the subheading.. .But what is PV again?

Nah... I was referencing a prior context - that statement you are responding to is not that context. The prior context did thematically portray Gaia as some sort of agent of intelligence that was strategizing the demise of Humanity - almost as a hand-throwing acquiescence to the notion that Humanity cannot be reasoned with, so blind extermination is the only recourse... Muah hahaha. Something along those lines was implicit - That would be fodder for science fiction/fantasy. But Gaia "self- regulating" - I'm not sure I agree with that either. I've heard other's sort of crutch on Gaia in principle, like it'll "protect" and "save" Earth from us... Mmm. No. It's not regulating shit when there's a mass-extinction already underway. I understand the modern definition contains that terminology, self-regulation, but that is being conflated with self-protecting. Even Gaia theory would have its break point... Think of it this way ( logically ): if the organic life that is supposed to be working WITH the inorganic Earth to produce a synergy-related positive feed-back that supports life, what does it mean if the life part of that formula ceases to exist? No Gaia, that's what - It's failing is what that is. And just like all the major mass-extinction events, regardless of whether they are causally related to geology, extra-terrestrial bombardment, or ... fascinatingly, the biology of the planet its self, these effectively wiped out their "Gaias" in lieu of new Gaias. As far as Gaia its self... upon deeper reflection ... I find it just as equatable to processes of ecological-balance. There are direct interdependent requirements of life within any given domain, and that domain then has indirect but still important dependencies upon adjacent ecology(s). Gaia really just a whimsical way of artfully describing the same thing in a poetic refrain of awe and wonder. But it's no different than ecology processes of various life components working unwittingly in support of one another.

https://phys.org/news/2019-11-arctic-ocean-ice-free-year.html

https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/14/europe/veneto-council-climate-change-floods-trnd-intl-scli/index.html

No .. I don't think that's cynical at all. I think that's a fair observation. Truth is, there is a reason these early cold snaps are becoming more common year to year. And, guess what? It's more than merely plausible. It has to do with the Pacific thermal ridge/bulge, combined with a permanent geographical circumstance that relates to the orientation of the N/American continent with respect to the west-to-east prevailing winds. Both cause ..or favor, NW flow in western Canada without the help of one another, as a rest/base-line tendency. The rest state of the Perennial North American Pattern features a mountain bulge, a flat ridge, the axis of which is collocated roughly with the Rockies cordillera ( Canada to Mexico).. Immediately down wind of this mean ridge there is a flattening out of the flow that is arguable a coupled trough. That is the geographically induced circulation mode. In present era of Pacific thermal surplus - particularly as we near the autumn and entry times to the cold season - that bulge combines with the ever present geographically induced ridge; superimposition over one another sort of "synergistically" enhances NW flows over western North America. That constructive wave interference than lends to tapping cold earlier and delivering it south toward N/A middle latitudes. As far as Gaia, that was more for science-fiction? A thought experiment. Muse out loud if you will. Though it's an intriguing premise for a book, don't you think? You know what it really hearkens to? I hearkens to the crashing airliner narrative, about how the moment of the accident is actually the end result of a series of events set into motion ... sometimes years in advance as forensics eventually piece together. It's just that with so many moving parts in the machinery of this planets biosphere and all the dependencies and delicate bandwidths of adaptation that need to remain stable, it gets to be so complex that its easier to just refer to it as Gaia. But, the geographic layout of our planetary interface with the prevailing N.H.wind ... causing slightly cooler variance over N/A as far as the GW we experience here, was like the plain wreck... That part of it formulated 10,000,000 years ago. Or if you really want to get outre with it, maybe Gaia set all this up back then.

Ten hours. Super massive stars that begin fusing Hydrogen into Helium during their early lives, will burn so hot and furiously through their Hydrogen mass that within just a few million years they will begin fusing the Helium they have created, into heavier elements. This goes onward, each cycle faster than the predecessor, because the energy produced by fusion of these increasingly heavier elements adds more and more energy to the nucleosynthesis process, thus speeding it up. Once the star begins fusing Silicon into Iron ...that's the end of the line. BOOM. That fusion into Iron at the core is the end of the line because it takes more energy than is provisionally in place left over from the previous nucleosynthesis processes to fuse Iron into heavier elements such Gold ..etc. The star no longer is producing additional energy thus begins to lose thermal pressure, and can no longer withstand its own incredible gravity. The core collapses... When that collapsing mass hits the neutron density being created by compressing protons and electrons together ( the creating of a neutron star associated with ~ 8 solar mass stars or > ), it rebounds in a horrific explosion called a Super Nova. Here is the fascinating part. Because the star is so large, that process of core implosion to 'Nova, takes time - on the order of ten hours. In that time, the outside observer sees the star as burning normally. It's really quite literally as though the outside spherical envelope of the star its self, is a dead man walking. A corpse unaware... that it's heart beat has ceased, and has no idea about the the shock wave about to annihilate from below. When I read articles like this: https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/13/europe/insect-apocalypse-report-scn/index.html I am driven to the above primer; where humanity, and perhaps a lot of other species to go along with, may be living and breathing, and carrying on in their existence as though quite metaphoric with that above theme, having no idea ( or in our case, vaguely..). There are so many moving parts to the climate change catastrophe, and it is absolutely a catastrophe. So few are aware, or could even begin to conceptualize the immense inter dependencies of the entire biological system. We read about polar bear habitats. Sea level rises.. Droughts and heat waves. And we think we got it? As commoners, we don't even know the 1% of it. As scholars and scientists, we don't know the half. But as we burn and carry on in our ways and means, in a lot of ways it is as though we are symbolically existing through our final, proverbial ten hours.