Typhoon Tip

Getting kinda sick of this winter already too -

Vroooom - it's called 'sarcasm' ? For the record I agree...it's an attenuating factor ...not 0 - never meant to explicitly state that. Rather, that it is buried inside a large expansion of the HC where it is becoming less able to disperse and force the westerlies as readily as half a century back ... By the way, while on the subject... I'm beginning to suspect the MJO is suffering less influence because it's wave presentation is also trapped - in their weekly PDFs put out, the bullet headers are routinely stating that the waves are being destructively interfered with. I noted they made this comment during the last warm event(s) too... Discussion for climate/winter outlooks perhaps tho

Way more than one would hope, huh - lol.. Btw, I'm beginning to wonder if this -AO is really bootlegged off a huge axial tilted PV that's oddly displaced if not pulled off the pole into into a violently +WPO ...Sort of like Japan's version of a 1993-1994 -NAO ... but obviously covering a considerably larger area. Looking at this, that's a probably the most powerful linear windfield on this planet since the impact that create the moon out there in western Pac: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/CMCNA_0z/hgtcomp.html What also strikes me is how abandoned we are over on our side of the hemisphere of any PV signature ...prtty much at all. We're left in utter entropy of pattern with warbling convoluted spaghetti over here ... in case no one's noticed. I mean...we're trying time and place objects in space with this f'titude? good luck... I don't think this is sans the HC as much as it is sans anything frankly - just weird. Brian pretty much get the post award for this page on that statement - not much else to be added haha

2015 was dead in the water at this point in time, too - .. heh And, since we've at last proven that the ENSO has no meaning any longer, we have just as much chance of something like that happening based on randomality at this point... weeeeee

Funny .. I was just taking note of both the GEPs and GEFs ensemble spread and in both cases, the only uncertainty is along the axis of motion on out to sea... Heh, you can speed 'er up or slow 'er down, but you ain't gettin' 'er no closer

Plenty of cold in the hemisphere but ..yeah, the 500 mb - yah know - it looks like the engine that mechanizes the whole of the circulation eddy is nauseated - like ...sick. I have seen Chinook patterns before but that's really an anomalous variant of that... You know what that looks like ? It looks like a 1936 heat wave circulation - it's just doing it in the winter version. fascinating - strange

It does ... sure... I was just musing to Will in that blown up storm thread ... read that - it sort of offers some perspective. Namely, if faced with the same hemispheric look in the models, as they were selling ( and trends prior notwithstanding...), the whole of it would be wise to consider a more favorable outcome for snow and at least impact of some kind. This was weirdly nuanced 'wiggles' in the NAO down the stretch, weak-ish S/W mechanical forcing in the flow. Idiosyncratic if you will -. Altogether it didn't 'synergize' a better outcome - sort of defeated the original layout of potential.. it happens -

Sort of in agreement here ... ( just using your post as a launch pad - am aware no one cares... ) Kind of a broad-stroked perspective but given the past 20 years ? considering the lion's share of snow verification did not take place in a -NAO, and were in fact Pac guided, then adding that this recent NAO's handling: those two aggregated facets = f* this man None of that lends to even wanting to engage in this as a hobby at this time. Ha, can you imagine the professional that is by trade, forced to examine and eat the shit of this pattern? I mean the poor schmuck - LOL I just would rather swipe the eraser lever on this drawing toy known as Internet weather charts... and start a brand new paradigm. If that means returning to the faster flow, progressive needle threading, so be it. We had better productivity that other way. No but seriously ... it seems this convoluted pattern/nebularity isn't handled very well. That Euro 00z cannot be resolved - even by that particular model's touted acumen and monstrosity of daunting complexity built in, that's a convoluted exercise in fractal apoplexy it's trying to manage in the D5-10. And given its own recent performance during this pattern ( *relative to just that regime ) ... well, it's beyond its wheelhouse anyway. What leaps out at me through it all... the PNA - go wonder ... Pac guided ... we just can't seem to pop a western ridge/+PNAP expression, which is needed for basic wave position mechanical arguments.

Yeah I confused you by using the expression ‘useful to us’ ... really the impetus there was just the NAO handling alone. ...but if the blocking were batter positioned it may parlay your next system there. Which could be okay anyway ... just sayn’

Sorry ... models pos‘ed their way up to this “-NAO” which I put in quotes because this? is not a very convincingly useful block ... Its S displaced so far it’s really more like a a ‘north based subtropical ridge.’ I do however believe if the 1/4 system was deeper mechanically rooted it would have fed into that and perhaps modulate more of D. Str vicinity ... Short of that/either way that’s not a good look

Bingo ... Yeah, I was just musing that in the blown up storm thread, how the NAO seems to be shirking/'back-stabbing' on that previous look. I speculate as the PNA emerges we'll start seeing the velocities ( all around ) speed up again. ...Not sure why it is important to know that - maybe it's because I don't like storm prospecting in fast flows.. personal bias. Sorry lol.

I guess I must have a differing opinion about the last 24 hours of guidance blend, re the larger/super synoptic hemisphere than y'all - it's all good.. But I see a tendency here to fug -around with the blocking ( AO and NAO correct up entering the 2nd week), while the mid latitude flow is speeding up the dailies/operational versions -anew- between Hawai'i and California... That's all code for the previous p.o.s. speed pattern I realize the snow storm a couple weeks ago in Dec was actually in that faster regime - so that also points out factually that it's not a death sentence to winter necessarily either. That said, I don't find the fast atmospheric paradigm as being inherently favoring the type of stuff the cinema weather charter is seeking in this particular social media...that's all.

I don't know if that's entirely true ... you're making an assumption that groups people together, without knowing them ... My biggest problem is that I go to fast, and leave out prepositions here, or type words like 'now' when I meant 'not' ... or, jump to the next sentence before finishing... throwing off the reader. I then have to run back along text and fix shit all the damn time - those cause distractions that don't lend to reading so, ... oh well Keep in mind, also - I'm trying for discussion and opinion sharing among other Meteorologists - they know that sort of 'vernacular' just fine.

oh ... talk about a dyslexic break - the word is 'isohypsic' Wasn't aware I was typing it that other way... Oops sorry. But, ...lol, my guess is that word also doesn't mean much to people.

Lol... know what? I'm already f'n sick of that damn thing - ...

oh god...what did I say - look man ... I was doin' other shit today and thought oh yeah... Open web --> wish I did not open up the web. I don't think I'm making anything up when looking at this shit - sucks asshole for storm/winter drama seekers. I think what happens is ...the tenor over does it in either direction as part of crowd physics. It's human... don't sweat it. But, the fervor does tend to out pace the indicators, where as I tend to ignore that sort of thing. It's just in my nature ...so, it may seem like I'm 'trying' to compensate for a mood or something, but I'm pretty much consistently being honest as much as I can.. If it fits the tenor of the hour, it fits... if it doesn't ... oops

Not a good look for Jan 8-12th either... Two days ago I admit I saw some alarming signals in there for either a top tier potential ... maybe an aggregated series but wow! The 240 hour Euro and GFS ... eradicate the NAO... and show signs of speeding the flow back up again. Interestingly ... the CPC tele's sort of relfect that ... with AO/NAO recoveries going on out toward the end. Better hope the Pac reorients or heh - doesn't mean winter's over... no, just that said "alarming signals" .... are no longer there. hahaha... Maybe we'll see them come back... maybe this opens the door to a whole new paradigm of delivery ... I can make one prediction that is above the 90th percentile accurate ... if this two-step head game goes on ... I predict I am going to start fantasizing for not only another 80 F week in mid February ...this time, I want the NAO to go f- itself in March. Leaves us the hell alone. That way we can just commit to an early spring/warm season and finally cash-in on GW in a meaningful way around here... lol

Well.. ( ha ) it's not totally over ... I mean, we still have to actually get thru January 4 ...so we'll see - It's just the 'vicissitudes' - 'nother fun word - of the last 24 hours that are unfortunate of the models, seems like those could be related to this thing just being weak and not having enough power to situate itself in space and time. More I think about it... we really have been seeing things get corrected weaker passing from late mid ranges into nearer terms, and it sort of fits this... The earlier runs had more impact ... the system corrects subtly weaker inside of 72 hours...out she goes.

Well ... I'm not going to sugarcoat it, or try to spin it or rationalize it, the last 24 hours of runs are frustrating for winter drama/storm enthusiasts ( ...which is really more like 'model cinema enthusiasts' .. ) I'm sort of kicking myself for not bringing this up two days ago - kind of obvious... I think I might have mentioned it (certainly thought about it) but I just didn't bother to emphasize the aspect. We're lacking isohypsic gradient ... when for 10 years, we had way too much of it! ..Ironically, but these 500 mb charted features are just not deep enough. They are shallow by January climatology. You're talking closed or quasi closed(ing) features that are 540+ DM dz ... I've seen June troughs that deep wooo! That's indicative of a mild 500 mb (relative to both season and what's going on around them).. The 500 mb wind velocities reflect that, circuitously wending around said features on the order of 50 .. 80 kts. Just a month ago, the ambient was almost twice that! Forget the S/W... Anyway, these S/W and features are lacking mechanical power. See, re this 1/4 system in the foreground ...it's not helping its track positions.. You get a torsional feedback that resists its 'drift momentum' from more strength, because deeper anchors sooner. This thing is paltry ...it's closing one isohypses... and the associated sfc low is a terrifying 996 mbs...so yeah.. it's drifting out. The other aspect is just giga motions associated with the NAO handling in the models. Nuances in the total structure of the NAO as it blossoms its block over the western limb is a bit shaky in the last 24 hours. The GFS runs are hem-hawing and trying to make it a S based NAO ... not sure that has the same "slowing" kinematic influence on this 1/4 thing. The Euro still has it more D. Str. however ..and yet it still sends this thing east into taunt distances.. I think really we could benefit from a stronger input to help anchor this sooner. That was more suggestive four days ago ... but, since... You know, we've been consummately correcting late mid range systems less amplified as they near in time - maybe remember that.

For the ice enthusiasts ... too bad this didn't time in just a little faster. The set up might have benefited from 'cold air capping' ( CAC ) ...It's when radiational cooling insituates a mass of thus-made overly achieved cold air. Then, within an hour of dawn ceiling quickly overspreads and limits the amount of diurnal recovery. Dec 1997 did that, the 'snow bomb' storm. May very well be singularly the most proficient positive bust either imaginable, or verified in history. The only thing that would out perform that forecast f'up would be predicting the Hadean and ending up in the Pleistocene. Anyway, this CAC factor was a sneaky value-add in why that storm so elegantly ( or egregiously depending on one's job status...) busted cold. It was supposed to be like one of those 31 F start uppers that goes to glop ... ending as drizzle for an inch right of I-95, to perhaps 2-4" in the ORH Hills... The only thing that forecast did reasonably well with was where the snow would fall... Everything else? - rectal glue. When the tiny uniform aggregates palled the atmosphere down to orb headlights, muting Industrial white noise to sign-language ...even idiots were presciently channeling something was dreadfully wrong. Turn on tele, no advisories. Star lights twinkling in the sky like diamonds earlier that fateful morning... 5am - radiational cooling having squeezed out another 8 points off the DP ... It was like 19/19 ... 31 my ass - don't tell me that didn't contribute. By 8 am, the sky was the flat expanse of an upside-down chalk board ... totally smooth, grim and gray ...utterly devoid of differentiation, staring into infinity overcast ... and, it was still ... 19 F I don't think where I lived at the time, Acton Ma, ever saw an aggregate size bigger than say oh ..10 or 15 plates and dendrite in shattering clumps - which if you are a bona fide truly honorable socially belated nerd, you know that single dendrites, plates and rods are actually small ..very small! We dipped to 19 F here ... hmm... Alas, the sun won't shine this way in May - no way! This appetizer event has been bumping out in time inches as we've neared. If the ceilings came in and we got this underway.. a meso /secondary zygote circulation and the certain tuck/barrier jet formulation ...work together and 'synergize' an icer outcome... Even not so...I am not even convinced seeing a closed surface circulation under PVD will really even warm to 33 F where I am in Ayer along Rt Poop... and I wonder about the eastern slopes of the Watchusetts hills there down into the valley below the ORH Airport ... This system's subtle slowing as it nears... This reminds me of what I was mentioning to Will the other day ..about how sometimes the behavior of the circulation medium begins to act or behave prior to the onset of pattern change ..it's like physics of the models begin detection prior to the coherent observation of what ever is coming in space and time. In this case, this slowing of the event space - that predates the arrival of the more obvious "slowing influence of the NAO" ... We started sensing this in some of the guidance... By the way, I think the Euro is fiddling with the NAO's ballast ( geographically..) which in present nuanced form is allowing it to conserve more progressive character to the flow upon this thing's departure... Lot of complexity... This system transitively effects the next for the 4th+ ... which should probably be written into that thread but... This whole -NAO may parlay a 10-day sub-winter in winter here. It hearkens to the Met professor's philosophy from the middle part of last Century about how these R-wave events are like planetary storms, with each period of amplitude contained being like analogs to gusts of wind just having interludes.

This is still beyond even 4th period - right ? I mean we bumped out the timing in the title on this ...but we can almost negative the 1st too at this point. Or can we.. jesus... man

I have never seen this hemispheric layout before... It's almost a 2-wave rest state pattern. It just happens to have a couple nodes of ridging on the right, and troughing on the left to make it blurred, but that's about probably as close to a 2-wave structure as is mathematically possible given Earth geometry and mass-density/velocity ...

It’s funny sometimes the peregrinations of these ‘threats’ I mean when this thread started out it looked just like this right now ... we spent a day day and a half 2 days on life-support, now we’re right back where it all started - granted it doesn’t always work out this way ...

I think the secondary is real.. It's in the Euro... It's in less than popular/conventional model types ...they're jumping into the ante, not away...and, it is theoretically sound - Just imho - But, it's not a like a 1978 Miller B extravaganza here ... we're talking about modest mid level support for it, and BL resistance just barely being enough ( hence the fine art) ...so, provided no industrial farts act like chaotic butterflies downstream of the Petro complex up there near Hamilton Canada ... etc etc..

I'm not sure I would frankly ... 'course, I have the biggest ballz of all event posters because I have no where else to go but up in life...heh... No, it's not unusual for the models to "see" the BL resistance/inhibition to cyclonic/warm intrusion only nearing an event, with more coherency and as I just opined... even the Euro with -10C at BTV over to mid Maine at 850s a mere 24 to 30 hours prior to saturable isentropic lift ... ...is a lot of long words to suggest that a cold profile has precedence for materializing out of models when the cold is arriving, not rotting ... The nascence of this may have been and probably was because of BL resolution ... moved out too quickly - thing is... some of these late runs ... seemed to hint 12z yesterday, bust has been trending more pronounced, have inched the +PP position up N ... backward relative to the modeled total translation of the event. Subtle but crucially ... that adds more said BL resistance and plus with 850 mb turning ENE-E at your latitudes near Brian and up by you... that means it is moving parallel to an elevated topography and that will force that layers ascent and that's a positive feedback at keeping the lower levels critically colder... The Euro also shows now a better backside 850 mb temp collapse ( -2 to -3C ) on the backside of that escaping middling secondary, which means it may have snowed to ping to upsloping snow upon exit. It's a fine art ... yup. But, I could see this thing staying snow at least longer for somewhere between the PF-Brian-Dryslot-Phinny axis of evil