Typhoon Tip

I've see so many of those analysis and reanalysis and dissections .... know what it really comes down to? geometry. That's all If there is a positive object NE/E of New England ...and a negative object W .... and a TC is approaching the outer Bahamas ...that's A ... If you don't got A ... go do something else... If you do see A ( modeled and so forth...) the rest of the story is particular vectors between those two basic, governing constructs... By typology to that circumstance, you will observe obvious deep layer wind components ( ..ie, 'steering' ) moving concerted S to N ... with variations therein determining more precisely where any TC that gets "sucked in" ultimately ends up. Sandy was too much positive object and too much negative object ... causing a violent and highly anomalous "left hook" and acceleration ... The easterly anomaly into that region of the M/A during that trajectory pathway was comparable to the normal westerly zonal wind ... going the wrong way Typically...there is always some negative west - positive east arrangement of larger scaled features ...whenever there is a TC "recurving" between Bermuda and the East Coast of the U.S.... There has to be... that set up is the only way ( physically ) to scaffold a steering field/forcing .... The question simply is... magnitude of each ... and how those geometrically enhance more or less idealized trajectories ... at Long Island versus more skewed and a miss.

The busts of the 1980s were uniquely bad man.... Those bust types you describe ...they don't hold a candle to pithy cryo dystopian illustrations that end up flat out partly sunny - We're talking about diametric purity... If we wanna get down to it,....every storm, even the over-producing ones in the general scope have someone somewhere that got nobbed - Even storms that for the most part righteously qualify as regional busts .... someone somewhere, did perhaps salvageable... Nope - bend over ... death BY Koabunga .. no questions asked... no exceptions conferred .... zero room for spin - discussion.... over

Yup ...add that to the list... I remember that one clearly ... 1989 ... Not sure what was up with that era and the technology. I mean, obviously ... Walter Drag and gang were not actually twiddling their mustaches scheming up ways to send doe-eyed young minds to therapy ... But, the models must've just routinely over set up scenarios? I met him on a couple occasions... One such time was back in 2005 at the SNE Storm Conference down in Brookline... By then, the scars had long since heeled and plus, I had been through under grad by then and had developed my own appreciation for how difficult deterministic weather forecasting is in this market/climate ...etc..etc... The guy earned a pass - ...Still, I didn't think to ask. I'd love to have a conversation with him and learn what it was like for them to set up civility for some of those debacles... That's an excellent way to look at the 1990s - btw... I like that turn of phrasing there... The 'prophecies' substantiated by the glut of the 2000 ( paraphrasing of course...)... and how 1992 really was a watershed season...

It's all relative of course... The decade was going badly ...then, there were glimmer of hopes in 1986 with a Novie event ( I think 1987 had one two... ), but the season didn't do much afterwards... Back to shit fests... But overall, 1987 wasn't terrible... There was a surprise event that rung up 6-10" in metro west ...supposed to be a glopper... But cold air was entrenched and way under estimated by man and models... When teeny flakes broke out and the visibility dropped to 1/4 mile it was pretty clear the forecast was in trouble... I really only remember a handful of ordeals that whole decade, purely because it was just banal, uninspired boring winters - it was really about the great nothing happening decade. And what I do remember .. disappointments out-numbered the production. There were a couple of bomogenesis events in those suggestive season years ... 1987 I think. They made the decade inimitably worse. How could a bomb make the decade worse? Well, they were supposed to redux '78 but ended up only clipping the Cape, while not much farther NW of the Canal managed dim orb sun through virga exploded cirrus. These storms were egregiously advertised... saturated air-waves criss-crossing electromagnetic death threats. I mean people were getting scared for what snow could do to cut off their heads... We were collectively under full-bird blizzard warnings clear to Fitchburg, MA and the western hills of Worcester. If you were old enough to be more into the TWC ( the only portal to the larger weather community available to the turbo dork with stolen lunch money in that era - this was pre web by a goodly margin mind you .. ), you had just enough cognition and knowledge to really feel the rub-in the NWS conspired to commit ... I mean, one of those storm there was a 4th period blizzard watch posted with dire ticker warnings scrolling on about cryospheric dystopian grid failure in hurricane wind pushed choke snow clear to almost SE Vt ... partly sunny ... Oh, but having to walk numb-faced to school ( after all ) .... in -9 F in 30 mph wind with blistering lips made it all totally worth it! Anyone sentient of matters since ... circa 1992 ...really has no idea what "bust" truly means on a spiritual level... It's like that scene on the roof in Shawshank...when Biren Hadley was languishing on about having to pay taxes on 30 thousand dollars in front of butt raped roofing-tar glazed immates ...and Morgan Freeman's character, "Red," says, " Oh. Poor Hadely - ain't he got it rough" That's 'bout how I feel for anyone since 1992 that never went through, or is aware, of the former years, that has the temerity to feel 'disappointed' .. about anything. Like shut the f up man. The era wasn't just about low results - it was about the dark art of specifically designed busts.. The decade was about "rubbing it in" - the greatest plausible set ups relative to perceivable reality ... There's also another thing about that era... in a lot of ways, it was made horrifically worse by the fact that weather-related graphics and delivery were becoming central entertainment in News delivery - ... I'm not really old enough to remember this, but I have seen old recordings of on-camera Mets actually using Sharpies to draw features on flip boards ... But look out! Here comes the age of graphics to turn it into the real lube-you-up cinema... I guess what I'm saying is that "ignorance is bliss" ? so to speak... I mean, if one was younger, they may have wanted snow and merely didn't see it as much.. And that sucked, ...but I don't think that would be as bad as this other journey.

Ooh.. I'm keeping this dude - too bad we don't have them like .... Dec 3 ...and Jan 20 and Feb 18 and so forth ... but not lookin' a gift horse in the mouth. nice bro

Jesus Will... I've been looking for snow events by dates for years... You saunter on in with a graph!? wtf haahahah

I know ... ( hahaha ) ... Oh man - can't wait to make Kevin read that back to us - Steve for that matter.

I'm curious if the ensemble push for an elevating NAM might help in preventing a nadir quite as deep as 2012 ... We're still likely doing a bottom 3 ranking ( or so...) either way, but if the oscillation/mode relaxes toward neutral we could be on the verge of a slowing in the melt rates. + annular modes are actually inversely temperature distributive to middle latitudes and tends to favor land-based cryo ... in addition to cooling the polar vortex domain space. But not sure about sea ice though. Particularly this early in the in the boreal autumn ...and also considering the melt- inertia, which is also a factor.

We could probably figure out which was of greater importance to that season via relative standard deviation - ... I mean it may not help... If a PNA is west or east biased, or the EPO...that would skew any conclusions perhaps .. But just in general.. if the PNA was +2 the whole way and the EPO was -4 the whole way, ...the EPO may win that assumption. Oy...actually that doesn't work either... Because the EPO is a small domain space comparatively...so, you'd have to do some sort of weighting analysis and f -that...

Increases in WV associated with GW contributes to more proficient precipitation, which should be acceptable via understanding Clausius Clapeyron equation ... Indeed, climate reports indicate 4 to 5% increases since 1901 ... However, looking at the graphical distribution ... the statistics are rather noisy (below)... I find it interesting ...the Autumn cuts up the lion's share of that increase ...where by eye-ballin' alone ...clearly the winters are surprising less. I mean just look at CT ... they are in a snow deficit compared to the rest of New England outside of Maine. There is pretty obvious less than ubiquitous distribution with regional variations, as well, seasonal differences involved in that mean U.S. total increase (keeping in mind, precipitation in this context pertains to both rain and snow). That sort of distribution pallet is more consistent with less skill than deterministic. I mean, just locally ... look at the difference between CT and MA. in that winter graphic. Plus...that Fall - Winter relay that is a monster differential there, and since Novie is an autumn month, and Dec is winter. is there any flop over there... Creates more questions than answers. The other aspect that muddles this, because of 'Clapeyron relationship. the same system 50 years ago does not as proficiently precipitate - that skews the model of the big ticket vs smaller aggregates.. in fact, it starts leaning the argumentative difference to moot if any trigger at all starts dumping bigger rain and/or snow bombs because of the saturation effect. To the point where we 990 mb low historic events with increased frequency, but the governing kinematics are not overtly impressive. When we look at this climate graph We may see an upward trend in big ticket events ... We may not be technically wrong... but, in reality what we are seeing may be an upward trend in precipitation period, because all events under the hood are being super-charged.

yeah...it's interesting to see 2019 be within decimals of those floor values when there's an average bottom date of Sept -16 among those other years, and we're only on August 21

This is gonna be close ...

There are solutions to the entire power-grid aspect of this that are completely obscured(ing) from masses. Partially by design ... partially by habit. There are "exotic" technologies in the private sector that no on even knows about ...buried, quietly... be it Trumpian morality and ethics, ...or just the hand-me-down dogmas of generational traditionalism within people's ways of life - basically ...culturally suppressed. But because of the suppression ... oblivion, and what probably should be more obvious has to now be 'out of the box thinking.' It's not that it is out of the box, ...it's just that we've been conditioned by a combination of convenience and apathy not to consider. It is possible to sequester electrical charge straight out of the ambient atmosphere. Yup... free energy. But therein is the problem ... that poke in the craw of the sociopath, "free" ... "hmmm... shit. That means I don't get to con Humanity into dependency on Oil and other pernicious means of energy extraction ... wantonly ignoring morality along the way in reaching the goals of my quarterly reports ...! God damn it..." It kind of reminds me of the "Mosquito Coast" Think about it - even you are not a physicist ...you should be able to intuit the plausibility. There can be a way to draw power directly from any gaseous volume that contains energy (thermal resonance) greater than absolute zero - ... we're living on a planet where there is just such a volume, and guess what... it's got so much thermal energy in the free static air that any quantization would be so large a number, it would escape all effective meaning... And, these devices have been invented... It's called the thermoelectric effect ...basically, it's theoretically known spanning multiple generations... where it is possible to convert temperature differences, directly to electric voltage ... ( and vice versa...which could be harnessed in home heating and cooling without too much imagination ... etct) And it's all done through the physics of thermocoupling ... ...etc..etc.. But nope - Humans can't seem to evolve away from that pesky evolutionary advantage that no one would ever concede was necessary along the way: GREED... Hoarding and me-firstitude favors the individual. See...the way that works ( crude model): when the collective cooperation spirit of the community is about to cause the extinction of the village that hoarder survives his/her genes into the next generation - greed lives... It is why greed is actually a core instinct along with all others, in the genetic make-up of humans. It's sneaky, stealthy ...furtive presence in all dealings has piggybacked along with cooperation instinct along the evolutionary tract. Any moral ( morals can be bad or good by the way...) we can learn to avoid them? ...suppress is more like it... But, greed is no longer necessary in times of surplus and opulence ...and at present state of evolution, human ingenuity has long outfoxed the basic ecological model of survival by provisions therein. We produce our own provisions...is surplus. Perhaps if the asteroid does strike one day, or the Carrington Event shuts this thing done and there's an immediate jolt back to primal living ...greed will have it's stealthy place again... But until that happens... it's an instinct that hasn't turned off...but is causing all this... And is hugely exposed. Because it's morality is now competing with the morality and ethics of that which would provided a greener vision for the world. That's really all it is... that simple. Humans can't do anything truly altruistic. Nope. They have to invent a illusory system of value, Economics... ( which sorry for the soulless among us who are so bought in they're oblivious to reality... money has no intrinsic value outside the parlance and tragic comedy of Human affairs - we all merely agree on it's value... ) and then hold individual's ability to survive for ransom by making profit off that dependency

Within a Millennium seems a bit conserved to me.... Particularly when the GW is accelerating ... I didn't look very closely at their math but on the surface ( heh...pun) they didn't appear to have logr effects due to accelerating variable values... This whole thing with synergy is just not being taken very seriously -probably more like less understood. Unrelated ... but Sanjay Gupta was recently extolling human beings are simply not wired to process the specter of climate change - I further that sentiment by re-iterating some of my recent opine material, related to " ..humans have never responded very well to threats that do not readily appeal via one of the corporeal senses.." - it's commentary routed into the same concepts... and GW/climate change is an insidiously quite stalker. This is particularly true, when the one force that is causing the ballast of the pernicious changes ( Human activity ) is uniquely adaptable ... thus making it easier to deny for readily evading its harmful effects via that same adaptation. I further again that synergistic effects ... acceleration, and gestaltian under-estimates can under calculate ablation ...the atmosphere accelerates further... that complicates their application - I'll have to read the article again... ( I'm on about 7 of these today - my god..) But the ocean levels rise at a greater rate than these linear application of rudimentary mathematics will imply given acceleration.

Yeah that product I posted is the MASIE ... or the augmented IMS ... hints at that in the lower right text block ...which for some reason had previous escaped my attention. Heh... anyway I found a different site that describes similarly when searching this shit - anyway, I think these curves have to converge at some point - thing is... we're so close to shared curve space that's probably splitting hairs at the moment... 2012 vs 2019 I mean

Okay ... .this is just quick and dirty Web goop but... IMS is being used by the National Snow and Ice Date Center ... IMS Daily Northern Hemisphere Snow and Ice Analysis at 1 km, 4 km, and 24 km Resolutions, Version 1. This data set provides maps of snow cover and sea ice for the Northern Hemisphere from February 1997 to the present from the National Ice Center's Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS). That's what's confusing ... if we say "...2nd lower behind NSIDC" ( which I'm not trying to refute...) but this statement above says they are using the same IMS tech, and said tech is showing 2019 has been lower than 2012 the whole way... that's a discrepancy.

I have a question - which may be fairly 'duh' but since I haven't been by those other sources ... Are those more comprehensive than "sea ice only" ? That IMS product is sea ice only ... And also, just fyi ... the IMS product comes from NSIDC - we may be able to put the pieces together here on why the disparity. It's gotta just be some dumb product thing I'm not seeing shit

I don't doubt there is/was relevant science and/or postulate content that predates the shenanigans that go in here I mean ..it's a public forum ... to which a social media outlet certainly qualifies, and folks rarely cite their sources, anyway. That said ... this came up back in Eastern days... from which this site really owes it's heredity of users ... (initially anyway ...that's probably obscured by now), but unfortunately, content didn't follow. Also, I frankly wouldn't put it past anyone in the general ambit of research ... regardless of affiliation and rank, elsewhere ...to poach ideas from dialectical free-for-all sources ( like the Web when it's not degrading into vitriol ) and then run with it using the wherewithal they have at their disposal. Much of that wouldn't even be malfeasance ... not the point. If I'm in a conversation with someone and it triggers a thought progression...and I science it and make discoveries... It's just where the 'idea zygote' took place. But like I said...like mindful quorums and consortia and who-knows-what intelligentsia ... they will tend to converge on similar ideas at the same time - this has taken place throughout human history. I probably shouldn't have mentioned it as an afterthought .. .

Firstly ... I like the opening thought here ... There are indeed vying forces ...some more dominant than others, in every multiplex system of Nature - to which the governing atmosphere/climate forces certainly fall into this give and take. Secondly ... you know it's funny - this business about "fossil" fuels... It took this planet some 100's of millions of years to sequester carbon out of the global biota ...and inter it all into these VOC chemistries ... then, Humanity comes along. With its ingenuity ( which has clearly out-paced any pragmatic checks and balances in the evolutionary sense of it...) we've managed ( ..if left to our own devices ) to liberate all of it back to environment in unbounded form in just 1,000 years. 100s of millions 1,000 The idea that there is anyone at all who would have the audacity to even try and ask anyone to negate ramification - ...that's incredible. I suppose it is possible ( tho proven not the case on Earth...) to find a system somewhere in Nature where you can completely forcibly infuse change without actually witnessing change ...

Fwiw - as of two days ago ( 18th ) from IMS: https://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/

Really ... Not looking for credit per se ... but, I haven't heard about the gradient hypothesis from anyone other than the person who proposed it five years ago ... and has been heavier about it over the last two. Now, it's owned by someone else - Heh... I suppose - fire was quasi implemented as a formal tool in human history at the same time every, too, so ...it's possible more than one person had the exact same to the letter ...inference regarding climate variations and large scale circulation forcing -

I almost wonder... hmm.. purely speculation but could the changes in the overall circulation of the N.Hemispheric winter that's been noted over the last two decade be partially causal in that...

It's probably more subtle than idealy coherent ... buuut, that seems to be a recurrent theme in recent years... But all's not lost? Because what happens - in deference to Scott's Euro stuff... - is that the NE Pac lends to more -EPO - like perturbations. We did remarkably well with winter expression in the rough NP-Lakes-SE Can/NE region with stretched L/W down wind of cold loading from that source... It'll be interesting if replay similar tapes. The other aspect is -NAO ... are these biasing over the western vs eastern limb -

.. Amplitude in the AA context imposes colder delivery to middle latitudes...which concomitantly slopes the heights ...faster wind speed results. Again... the Arctic is warming faster than the mid and lower latitude troposphere's ( do to various "synergistic" feedbacks and so forth...), but... it is still generating differentiable cold heights in the autumn and winter, and still sufficiently deep compared to the ballooning Hadely cell to create more gradient. They're not talking about geostrophic wind saturation in this article - they are talking about the large scale wave features these winds travel around. These features are a different beast than the flow along their gradients. When the gradient speeds up south ..this inegrates a weakening of the annular mode of the Arctic...draws/redraws the polar jet S where the gradient is larger ... this causes slowing of the zonal wind component at higher latitudes - check... But that means the gradient is intense along that southerly displacing polar jet and the wind...fast. Also .. for me, if anything... it makes sense that faster flow may "lock" patterns, as the forcing must be large and therefore "immovable" ( relatively..) and cause R-wave translation/morphology to slow.. because faster wind speeds intuitively would tend to dampen permutation forcing.