Typhoon Tip

Euro doesn't curl the wave lengths so much ...such that the D5 wave gets more progressive. Weird, the GFS and Euro are both playing opposite their own biases there... The previous GFS runs were more similar to this, though were also not as amped with the ridge building in next week. The Euro's been handling this pattern transition exceptionally well since it first came into vision back 8 days ago ... I'm inclined to back away from the GFS' as it was clearly engineered by Trumpian plants that are attempting to hide global warming by having model runs erode warmth and numb storms whenever it can - haha

Yup...yet again ... according to NASA, April rings in with North America and/or a significant aspect of that region ( and/or close enough that we can sensibly feel it here...) colder than the most everywhere else... It's really rather remarkable - since 1998's termination of the last ENSO event ( that had any meaning to the atmosphere, by the way...) Global warming insidiously hides and conveniently enables cold trolls in weather-related social media ... haha. Kidding aside, this was predicted by primitive climate models back in the 1990s ...

to 10% of the society ...I can imagine

all winter, the models corrected everything NW .... now, they corrects SE ... so perfectly 100% wrongly relative to preference. Nice. It's an odd look though. The GFS and GGEM seem to be reacting to an expulsion of deeper tropospheric heat from the SW into/within that 2nd ridge amplitude ... It's goosing it... dumping that warmth into that it balloons, shortens the wavelengths, and that feeds back on/gives the 'manufacturing' look to that trough back east. Not sure that whole thing is right - maybe

Yeah but then the GFS starts engineering nor-easters ... It's got a nor'easter out of a 500 mb impulse it has driving straight south along the eastern seaboard - I mean, how does it do that lol. Is it on purpose? I'd say there's chance that's all faux -reasons for thread stalkers to pounce on optimism pending more support -

Whatever one wants to call it ... I'm in Scott's camp - the pattern's changed. When it does scale back after tomorrow, when/if/or BDs and/or 'flies in the ointment' etc .. we're not talking about flurries and packing pellet virga exploded CU's ...it's just pleasant. In other words, we escape the madness - and today btw sucks donkey balls. I hate these -10 to -15 day-high douche days of wind and pancake. go f it'self. I don't know what it is... I almost care less about the sun and more about the temp not being a big lubed up rape-dong at this time of year. It's just sapping of will - ugh Warm frontal two-step may throw clouds and showers around off-and-on as regardless of all..boundary perhaps sets up and oscillates prior to that bigger ridge ( if it happens...) later next week but have to take that day-by-day

The 00z Euro was pretty darn hot from the western Ohio Valley to the mid Atlantic in that day 8-9-10 range. Of all synoptic metrics in the atmosphere, warm air is the most fragile. Day 4 of the Euro features a weak S/W ular formed bend in the isohypses up over Idaho ? It then takes that feature east across the NP ...Lake --> through day 7. Then, typical for this model at that time range and trajectory, somewhere it finds the mechanical wherewithal to deepen it substantially. That suspicious spontaneity then conveniently engineers a cool back 850 mb plume timed through New England. I don't argue 'a feature'/S/W moving through; I question the Euro's amplitude - seeing as it appears borrowed.. It's not a huge deal though... In fact, the cool back is more like a 'dent back.' In old school Met parlance we referred to that as a "pacific" cold source but it's really a misnomer, as all that means is any cool source that doesn't have a delivery from higher to lower latitude. And then we'll see if that heat in the farther extended is for real/where. I see this all the time .. particularly in springs that are butt banged. When the pattern finally relents, there's a kind of slosh back climate correction ...where a ridge balloons and rattles some SW ejected plateau heat for a couple days. The big dome back three years ago in early July was that. And then the rest of the summer couldn't get hot to save it's ass. Oh, it was sack-sticker humid but but heat and tall ridges were muted. I wonder if this is just predictable climo ...where we'll get a week of dome and then settle back into a NW trajectory drought summer with big heat after big heat ejection shunted S to Virginia ... Then, this deepens in October, snows in November... before Global warming/HC expansion mechanics on a hemispheric scale then f's up all seasonal forecasts for next winter with speed shearing and unrelenting gradient...rinse repeat for the next 20 years...

Nah... that's just the seasonality of a warmer, somewhat theta-e richer air mass reflected in the sounding; that will look generically like that until October 3rd when we start heading on back the other way. You know it's funny - half kidding here ... but there's some truth to it - I look at soundings over Kansas, OK....IA and wonder why that whole region of the country doesn't just spontaneously detonate into a massive mushroom cloud as though an asteroid impacted on any given day in early June... Nadda. just streets of harmless CU sitting blithely over 6,000 SB CAPE...

Whether some in here realize this or not ... they covet that and hope it happens ...anything to not have warm sun and the general joy and mirth sensation summer brings to the majority - lol... you can include me in that group circa November 1 to March 15 ... I'm actually thinking the 'stretched' L/W appeal and the flatter total wave spacing may help stump that potential some. A lot of BD mechanics requires a sharpening in S/W's as they are leaving that ~ 50/70 region, such that backside NVA curls with more strength ...piling the air up causing the +PP discontinuity and then that air "fills in" the gap on the eastern side of the cordillera...etc..etc... Then doing so over cold Labrador waters and eegh! Anyway, the flatter deep layer limits ( a little ...) of that backside NVA curl, which then transmits less mass to the lower levels and the BDs end up with a less momentum. Not a total mitigation no but we'll see

Actually... the more I look at that EPS evolution D6 to 10 there is multi-faceted warm-season entertainment chances, ranging from late tornado season potential in the plains, to a heat expulsion. Usually you don't get both those... When bigger heat/EML's get boated out of the southwest, they are associated with CIN so wide-spread strafing super cellular rake events get suppressed, and what tends instead is toward those giant 80DBZ cannonball-sized hailer, isolated carbuncles on radar that look like they must be drilling for oil but are all 10 mile gated meso with overshooting domes to 70K ... MCS running around ridge rims too... Anyway, if a bigger tor event happens from the lognitudinal wave progression from D6/7 to 10, then it's more likely we have pedestrian early season warmth spreading up ahead... We could have early DP transport despite our green-up being somewhat belated -interesting.. But, here's the thing, the players are in favorable stage-block assignments for putting on an early heat show. At D5-7, there is a lead roll-out ridge that should see the ambient boundary displaced up near the St Lawrence (~) with shallow BDs a potential ..granted, but... Those are not incursion cold/deep trough migrations as the longitudinal flow tendency is ( as noted yesterday ...) instructed by a neutralizing NAO so the flow wants to lift in latitude along the eastern seaboard. But what all this evolution does ... is it sets the stage for if/when a heat expulsion from the SW gets ejected, it would then be naked to swath up in the circulation, and that's just what the D8-9-10 of the Euro operational/EPS mean is attempting to do... So, a big heat departure into the OV/Lower Lakes to NE actually has total roots in the predecessor ridge-roll out setting the stage, and then the second ridge roll-out has captured EML/850 mb super charged air then lidded and running up in the continental conveyor ... Little bit of synoptic anatomy lesson on SW heat releases

mm hm ... Weather aficionados falter in their craft if they do not consider the bumps and perturbations running along the interface between these flat/zonal flow ridge amplitudes, and the still vestigial tendency to buckle over Ontario. ... powdered "invisible-to-the-models" backdoor front, just add picnics - No one asked but ... this week was still just about transitioning away from that bombastic cold pattern into a more traditional transition season/climate expression for mid May ... (some extended hints now for more heat) Also .. CC seems to mandate most days are +1.6 to +3 departure, which only get corrected more modestly positive by a raining day that insidiously skews the peril or the world, making the total months only seem more modestly doom-saying. Heh. Oh, the world is so preoccupied by the immediate "Great Cootie Meme of 2020," humanity has forgotten the real extinction signal: the Earth cannot support this species, either way and countless will die. ... enjoy your morning coffees grown and shipped, heated and enjoyed by means and method of profligate expenditure attributed carbon footprinting - The 00z Euro and the EPS mean for that matter, both set stage and begin executing a Sonoran heat release toward the end of the run. Noormaly ...day 10 is nothing more than sip-o-joe morning entertainment.. Buuut, that cluster nailed this presumptive pattern change this week ...timing and amplitude, and actually ..morphology of the super-synopsis from Hawaii to southern Greenland for that matter, going back to when it was day 10, too... So, it may be that it just sees things during present era so... hm - A climo correction flip into heat was hinted on the previous run, too and it's merely more discerned here. Doesn't take a poet to see 90's before the end of the month when balanced against where we've been

In terms of sensible weather variation yours up there ( typical for quasi-mountain Met) stands to be most extreme with the changes likely to succeed this week. In fact, Friday's Euro warm punch is deep in the troposphere .. that's 800 mb boundary-pausal look there so you'll be creepin the 60 isotherms pretty high up those slopes should that prevail as is synoptically modeled - if at day 5 usual caveat applies.

Ooh... just got to see D9 and 10 ... Yeah, the euro is as guilty with ridges as it is with troughs in that time range, so ...taken for how little that's worth - that does have a climo corrector look to it speak of the devil. It'll be interesting as that sort of flip has precedence ... Something tells me May doesn't end -12 to -16 some how some way. This week's seasonal progression/flip was actually nailed by the Euro at D10 and I've been vigilantly paying attention and it hasn't deviated...now the other guidance is on it...and, the GEFs NAO go positive heading toward next weekend and so pulling the exit latitude of the westerlies up the eastern U.S. isn't a bad fit. Heh...call me a dork, but I'm always fascinating by the 'day' the season seems to take it's biggest single leap - you can do this in November too sometimes... neat.

Mmm ... those of us of the warm season enthusiast ilk have three more days of it - you did say 'one of the last days' ...but one of the last four days is less spun and more precise. Anyway, there is still a remarkably well agreed up transition this week where we effectively cut right to summer. Thursday's the silver bullet day... 12z Euro put eclat on it too... really dramatic transition across 30 hour ... ~ Wed 18z to Friday 21Z ... sun depending. Not sure what the cloud products look like - haven't looked that close, but 12z Friday downs +14C at 850 mb, in a jolt warm fropa ... I saw that back in 2010.. We were having a some trouble in early May that year ( though nothing like this ) and a "nose" structure warm boundary intrusion came around the top side of a burgeoning ridge ...that much being quite similar to what this Euro run is also doing.. and it punch in with a 24 hour temp change of 64 to 84 -90 across a day-high to day-high interval. Not saying that 'exactly' is taking place Thur into Friday, but that secondary warm intrusion early Friday really looks quite similar and that could see mid day temp absolutely maximizing the 850 and maybe even taller, too. But before that... that change 18z Wed to Thursday 21Z is nothing to shake a stick at, either. There's a bit of an amorphously defined warm advance that takes place Thursday over the arc of the southeast retreating high. In fact, that day could be greater diurnal changes across single 12-hour period in quite some time. That synopsis should decouple in the last of it, cellar temps in the 30s/near freezing dawn; 850mb recover to ~ +6C by late afternoon on a freshening well mixed west wind... Could be 70-75

Of course there’s another ‘sensible’ angle on that. -19 daylight hours may have nights -1 ... affectedly robbing the observer of their commiserate achievement. Lol

Yup.... every year there are days in the climate that end up -19 ...

I'm not sure I buy the Florida to SE U.S. coastal hybrid low idea ... I seem to recall the GFS did this last spring too, and they were false much of the time. Autumn as well..

Palpably different sensible weather flashes in mid week... At seasonality, perhaps even add a couple/few tickets. A few days ago I commented that it is not unprecedented to see a 'climate correction' occur within a temporal stones throw of a departure, whether it achieves that by amplitude in similar time span ... or in the aggregate - this appears it may be slated for the latter. Hang in there ... it's almost over. 120 hour...well actually 108 now, and the 850 mb thermal layout is really washing away. Most guidance agree that a warm front/diffused warm frontal passage takes place Wednesday night and Thursday may be 20 F warmer than Wed by 5 or 6 pm. Credit the Euro... ( so far, we'll see ) but it picked this up at the edge of D10, five days ago, ..and it's held serve. now the GFS is even showing the seasonal flip - late as it is in every case and reality...jesus. It's amazing getting this version of the GFS to even admit to ridging and the 18z really signals ...makes me wonder if this may actually get more impressive ensuing model cycles. This was a hemispheric fold synopsis off the Pacific warm eddy ... whenever we get a -EPO to super impose over the tendency, that's a constructive wave interference and it went absolutely bonkers.

sarcasm aside I actually like this description - seriously

This 0Z nam solution has thickness is 515 dam over Logan at 48 hours… I have never seen that that deep in the month of May ever. That’s got to be some kind of a historic record for that particular metric –

Looks like a dramatic month of fortune reversals. both winter the summer enthusiast get bonuses before month’s end. snow chances this week shouldn’t be shocking relative to this pattern look. Nor should the plausible climate correction pattern flip after mid month.

So ... let's cancel the orchard crops now

Yeah, that's taking this year perhaps to a different level. But, right on cue, my sugar maple ( whom I lovingly refer to as 'general Sherman,' ...a 300 year-old, 5' diameter trunked, fire-barked beast adjacent my property) buds all cracked just overnight - it's amazing... Swollen buds for a week, wasted no time --> flowers this morning - 82 F yesterday book-ended by a couple of nights in the low 50s is probably causal. Anyway, not sure how orchard trees are behaving ...s'pose I could scout the apples on the other side of town but ...heh, not really that interested either. Re the status of things - It's actually still lag mild... we're 68 F here this hour under clean sun and zephyrs are not exactly signaling a hurried cold advection. Thing is, the May sun is being under-evaluated ( imho ) by those ragging on warm weather spin doctors ...ha.. Just the same, the 500 mb anomaly is something on the order of a 70-year phenomenon and should not be taken lightly - funny squabble results. I think there is a hard freeze/headline potential at nights and if the wind dies off by day even if for a few moments... it'll be fake mild in nooks that are out of the breeze... I have been noticing the Euro at PSU's granular quick and dirty 24 hour intervals, and one can clearly see the sun's diurnal forcing on the air mass when using that step back coarser perspective - interesting. The 00z runs, which are at the apex of the heating cycle, have been routinely 5 to 7C warmer at 850 mb at/amid the end of the week's big cold intrustion behind that vortex migration through SE Ontario... Contrasting, the 12z runs, which are at the cold nadir of said cycle, slip back by a goodly degrees ... It's like been varying -6C across most of NE at 00z runs, to -12C on the 12z cycles. That variance is purely insolation. That's in the model - it's not being noticed ...but, it does show that the sun isn't going to be denied, no matter how threatening the cold appeal is. If it is sunny, it will offset - matter of how much.

we have only swollen buds in the overriding canopy species here in Ayer, but we are in a radiative/climo cooled valley and it's been uniquely cool this last month - ha. May 3rd is the latest since I've lived here that we hadn't seen sugar maples ( at least ..) in sweet fragrant bloom. What's likely to happen here is yesterday, last nights balm, today's relative heat, tonight's balm and tomorrows ... 68 -ish will be enough to trigger a green flash but ... ooph, you almost want/need these progs to really bust then because this is a nightmare perfect failure set up for apple/pear orchard industries. Lagged spring signal, sudden spring signal... foliage triggers with abandon, followed by acute cold attack? interesting -

Solid and classic spring MOS bust in the midst of 30 year climate brain having one end be low and the near end being high - maybe... I could see that happening with the ECMWF/mid month flashing the other way rather abruptly... I realize others were onto this earlier too but it also occurred to me on that bike ride ...it is not that uncommon to see a climate corrective departure occur within a month of extremity like that. It'll be -5 for 10 straight days, then + 10 for 5 ... end up normal after 15 ... type of numerical layouts do have a precedence for extended duration balancing... -20 for 4 days ... then +8 20 ... with + 1/3 for another month shenanigans. I could see us flipping with that -PNA that's shown up all at once in the extended over here in the GEFs... Before that, I wouldn't be surprised if we clocked a snow event out of this thing. I've seen snow in 6 different May's since 2000 under less impressive conditions. Past doesn't mean future and all that jazz but still - that's a sick look. Perhaps a month of extremes underway