Typhoon Tip

But again .. that’s the virtual reality of the Euro

In fact that makes spatial reasoning sense from the synoptic point of view because about the time that migration takes place the cold loading from the Maritimes is breaking down so we woukd be transitioning into a continental pattern at that point washed in afterward.

Nah if that upper level low decays like that Euro the surface pressure pattern/baroclinicity will normalize ...then what remnants there is becomes a quasi diffused warm frontal slope that transports higher dewpoint warmer air up from the south. It would probably be partly cloudy with higher dewpoints and instability afternoon showers and thunder type of deal… In fact August Bahama blue patterns but it’s not gonna do that before that thing lifts up and just washes out entirely

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yup

From a broader perspective the Euro's is objectively not as bad as all that.. however, this situations leans one's attention too closely into the discrete variations, run-to-run (I wonder...) and that might be effecting opinions. As far as the tropical aspects ... the Euro ( I have personally noticed ) is not a good performer over any Basin on earth, below the 30th parallel, when it comes to purely warm core/barotropic entities. So I compartmentalize that as typical there, and don't let that effect my own judgement on how it may or may not be handling the current shit with the mid latitudes. This cut-off has ginormous sensitivity-related matters. So 300 or 400 km adjustments, W-E, N-S in the 'where' it situates means the difference between 52 F and wet, versus 72 and late May lazing sun very sharply evaporating the edges ... a behavior typical of mid to late spring. It's like CON, NH is 71 F embarrassingly busting MOS, while it is 47 F and raining over Tolland. Anyway, ...by the time the Euro's echo swirl opens up and rejoin the flow.. any gradient it was initially triggering were both too far S, and weakening ( to mention, the higher pressure from the N attenuates), such that it is just a humid transport for New England. That's the gist of what that's showing. Either way, ...I suspect Monday/Tuesday are a cool anomalies, regardless of whether GFS wins in making them particularly wet. Even without the cut-off, there is a huge BD-esque surge of +PP pressing down out of eastern Ontario. That thing would make it cool whether that cut-off misery organized or not. So, try not to focus on the low too much ... It's going to be chilly for a day or two.. A robust surface ridging pressing down from eastern Canada sets up as easterly wind anomaly straight across/from as source of air modulated by the super warm soothing Labrador Current ... yaay! The only way around that is to have that N-stream/confluence up there be wrong too... not really related to the low. So bag Monday and Tuesday as annoyingly cooler than normal ...

Raw NAM numbers off the 00Z have nice weekend days on this run ... I mean that really looks like it’s gonna be 73 and dryer again here in the interior. Logan is going to get butt banged by a pretty potent seabreeze .. mid afternoon. That’ll work its way in but it’ll be several hours of really nice weather before that happens out through the Worcester Hills Sunday the wind is light and variable under mostly sun

It actually originally had that look ... flipping more dramatically so .. but then this rhea low bullied in using oddly weak initial mechanical wave space in ending up with that look, too hint hint.. could be the models are bullying it in - we’ll see. Something is going to be there… I just don’t know where to place it and I also don’t agree that the amplitude has to be correct. I think the models could be overdoing it; we’ve had periodic weaker solutions, and we’re also having trouble with continuity and that includes the euro. I wouldn’t hang anyone’s hat on the euro solution just yet. Either way this features just tainting the hell out of that original signal. If one visualizes it removed .. we have our first heat wave; the whole sensible week is being guided by this thing that just came out of nowhere about four days ago in the guidance

segways into heat wave set up at 500 mb, too -

Mmm.. give the GGEM credit for collapsing into its own ensemble mean. I expended a goodly dose of wasted energy writing a post this mornign explaining how the operational runs et al were so disparate relative to their ensemble means - this GGEM run fits it mean now.

Yeah agree in general. I was just noticing a glaringly obvious ensemble difference(s) across the board. In all three, Euro, GFS and GGEM, their respective ensemble means are vastly different than these individual synoptic handling of that D4 to 7 time frame. You didn't ask but this is for the general reader .. Firstly, we only spend time discussing this piece of shit cut-off nuance that bears absolutely 0 significance to any of our lives, because we collectively suffer a weather-obsession psychosis and are compelled to do so... At least being aware of that, saves one from utter damnation in the hells of insanity. Ha! Secondly, what I suspect - upon carefully evaluating each operational version - is that they are phasing the D3 weak-wave mechanics that initially turns the corner around the Lakes (~) and dives south near Ohio, with what appears to be convective feed-back over-zealous wave propagation out of Texas or thereabouts. The Euro waits to do this infusion near the Mid Atlantic ( and it should be noted...no prior operational runs of these three even attempted this entire scenario), whereas the GFS does so earlier around the western TV region. The GGEM does the same ...where ever in the hell it says it happens, it's doing that weird phasing with what might be faux wave space out of TX just like the other two. The ensemble means, don't do this. As a result, this thing dumps in and fills much faster, as well...the ridge spills over top by mid week with a much different forcing on the weather types and surface features et all by as early as Wednesday. In fact, by late Thursday the EPS has a vestigial wave smear shredding to oblivion SE of the MA in the west Atlantic, while the operational is still whirling -2.5 SD torque menace over the Delmarva ... mm... yeah, that's a vast outlier - too much stress on believability. Thirdly, this is all an operational model continuity break and synoptic forecasting 101 should automatically consider this suspect - which I do... because that wave coming out of TX idea...heh... I think that is getting overly developed and is causing the more sensitive physical processing of the operational versions to then have to favorable wave interference with it. We'll see..

I wonder if the belated green-up is playing into this... That's one Two, wonder if we have problems with that warm front ...specially if we dump a rain column into this dry air mass.

It's legit dry man I was toolin' on a 25 mile ride in 73 F and was bone dry when I got back - that's some turbo vaporation there

75! ...got my 40 delta ... that's pretty sick -

yeah...jokes aside ultimate solution with that thing is ... excruciatingly tedious and nerdy of us to even be following but - lol - appears to be flux.

Not sure where this trend ends... I was brow-raising when I noticed how similar the Euro looked to this recent GGEM solution as it is ... in that order no less heh. Anyway, if these models were just a little weaker and/or turn that south moving it into that TV settling position just a little bit earlier on, we don't even get into the rain like that "FV3" - I guess that must be the new GFS experimental ? Anyway, the Euro has a very warm day in the interior next Thursday with +13C at 850 rising during the day and wind veering around to the SW like you said.

lol me neither ... that kid's like a Meteorologist Forest Gump equivalent

GGEM not having very good continuity either .. These cut-off lows are always a beyotch for the models, and the peregrinations of the GFS and this one really showing that over the past few runs. The GGEM not only parks the U/A low in the TV, it's really so far away that we end up building heights back over 582 dm over NE and the upper MA... In fact, that looks warm by Thursday with 560 dam thickness and 850s up to +12C if it were not for the cold ocean lurking there, Kevin looks like Will and Scott's daddy -

I could see it going to solid spring by Wednesday "IF" one is dumb enough to go with the 12z GFS' operational rendition - Thing is... the model's placing that U/A low it cuts off all over the map from run to run. Now, it has it way stuck down in the TV by Tuesday, with a huge push of "BD" ( in quotes because I'm not really sure what to call that weird pressure pattern/synoptics the GFS is doing...) high pressure walling down from the N - so aggressive on this run that it actually places the breadth of NE et al bodily inside the surface ridging so far that the wind cuts to nill by Wednesday afternoon, when you have solstice sun unabated to the surface under 850s' around +3 to +4 C... Granted, that configuration probably doesn't mix that tall but ... it's still enough to argue 68 F under hot sun and light wind. That's not early summer, no...but it's a vast vast improvement over the chiding tenor - it's a nice week beyond a couple of climo rotters. Big deal.. But again...not sure this is the go-with solution either -lol

35 to 70 so far here... This was well advertised this huge diurnal potential... And it's a late high scenario too ( not totally synoptically driven). We have light west wind down here ( prolly there too...) and over both locations the 850s are warming over the course of the afternoon by dry advection.. -1C at dawn is +5 by 7pm so we probably tickle our maxes say ...5: 5:30ish... I'm guessin 72 to 73 here. I was hoping to put up a 40 spot on the delta but ...heh, may have to settle for 37 ...pretty big

Warmer NAM run tonight. Full warm sector intrusion Friday

That's just it ... that's not the case with that thing - ...Oh I get the example. But in this case, beyond Tuesday there's almost no gradient beneath that thing and it's just a left over whirl at mid levels... Not sure why people are evading the optimism here - it does begin to come of an wantonly so -

not sure of any reasoning that foots his outlook but ... I think he's right. The most vulnerable days to affliction from that is Monday/Tuesday ... I'm also open to the notion that this ends up less anyway, because it is not unprecedented in the mid to late spring for the models to over-sell a mid range mid level cut-off and it ends up being more of a mid level instability dent in the isohypses .. This thing is trying to settle into the M/A region while the super synopsis around it is heading in the other direction - might be a red flag? gee. Also, seeing the GEFs at least hint if not outright attempt more progressive drift ... it just wouldn't surprise me if things don't end up so bad. But, I'm also sensing this is a bit of an inconsolable crowd, too ... a time-purified bastion of ingrates that share in the same "negative S/A/D" that really just can't stand summer weather unless it is utterly perfect - otherwise, it's we eat a steady diet of their smoldering troll tactical grousing. hahaha

I just spent a few at Pivotal looking over the 700 mb RH and 500 mb this and 850 mb plumes and so forth, and much of the Euro's momentum is confined to a mid level swirl ... that's partly sunny under mild 850 mb temperatures, and more diurnal instability looking from Wed on in that particular model...

For now I'm thinkin' it's all bs... GFS run ...this Euro...all of them. The GFS is unstable showing now progressive continuity shift - which means, there's plausibility this speeds up more, and like I said...could be a prelude to this just morhing more into a west-east propagating wave. Meanwhile, the Euro deepens troughs and balloons ridges, too much beyond D4 as a general rule ... and this deeper complexion/look it has could easily be shaved off 6 or 10 dm and atone for that bias... So in effect, we are being dealt bullcrap for multiple reasons - pick your miss-direction. we'll see