Typhoon Tip

is there a running tabulation of February 2025?

Looks like spring is trying to invade the guidance to me. I realize we had been tracking another -EPO load and potential cold for ~ Mar 3 - 8th. However, the index' prognostics have backed off that a little, while the longer range synoptic charts have followed along. Still cold in that period, but it's more transient and not as inundating and deep as previous. Prior to the 3rd and after then 9th or so.... we tend to go above machine guidance on sunny days. I see 540 dm thickness up to ORD-BOS in intervals, with off shore wind in the means, and the first thing that comes to mind is that folks will be under estimating/visualizing how mild that will be ... Keep in mind, we still live under the glow lamp of attribution, only suppressed by a persistent -EPO over top a low frequency +PNA winter. This latter aspect has been enabling.

^

Yeah... this is the way I remember those heat bursts as well. Actually was 81, 2017's then 79 2018. I worked in Westborough/Rt 9 just east of Worcester, and my commute took me up 91 to Rt 2 every day. On the both afternoons, it was a similar weird experience having the windows down at 70 mph and still getting back sweat ... in February. Never experienced that kind of heat, at that time of year, ever, in my life, living along 42 N as I have. Just will add, we were at least 70 a couple of other years, too - just not quite as audacious as 2017 and 2018. And in 2016 ( I think it was...) we soared to the mid 80s in that March. I think these occurrences are enough to set people's wick like it's possible to shut things down early. And they are right. However, so is Will. Both are right... It can mean the end. It can also NOT mean the end. March is a fickle month. I remember back in 2011 I think it was, climate sites put up a nearly +10 month. That's hard to do. That requires consistently warm readings from front to back door. I may not have the year right just off the top of my head, but I do recall the immense anomaly of it. And seeing ridic early green up. Even large deciduous species unfurling leafs prior to the end of the month. But on the other hand, we had some years in the last 12 where we warm burst in Feb, and with 0 indicators for a cold March, still ended thumped by major blue bombs.

This incoming week should get the Maple syrup industry up and running. Unless that's already underway... but, I was under the impression that the sap starts moving when days are above freezing, which tends to begin in February, which is why tapping begins after Valentines. If Monday-Thursday work out as 45ers and generally tepid west breezes under nape sun, that seems to fit. Looking forward to that, actually. Even today ... it's 32 on the button this hour, but the wind is very light and sun is a different bird compared to what it was a month ago at this time. The inside of my car is hot LOL. It's nice to amble a bit with arm crossed, pausing to stair for a moment. Later in the week my suspicion is that system between the 28th and 1st ends up piece-of-shitting like all else have. I've really lost patience with this oddity of NOTHING lasting from extended into mid range without attenuation. I'm not even sure it is the pattern and not just an artifact of the modeling technology. I can remember us making this observation and ruminating/commiserating it's occurring with the models back in like 2018 at one of this meet and greets at Funky Murphy's. Yeah, the pattern foot is more progressive, with S/W's moving very fast through a medium with strong base-line geostrophic winds setting air traffic air-land speed records...blah blah... Not sure if it's just this latter aspect causing the models to do that... Either way, I can already see having to rely on the UKfuckumMET to maintain an event diagnostic for the 28th as a tempo for same dance. Beyond that, there's still a -EPO, although the tele prog has backed off a little. Hopefully, it continues to back off... I realize there are those that don't want winter to end, and will see any kind of mood post that doesn't agree as an affront to them personally ... but no. I really don't want winter to continue. PERIOD. I am however capable of compartmentalizing my druthers, and looking at the outlook objectively. With/should a -EPO succeeding, we are not likely going to sustain a 3 day thaw in the foreground. Prooobably have to go back the other way. This is wrt to temperatures... Once we get out past about mm Mar 10... that's when the last of any -EPO is behind; the ongoing -PNA and +NAO will probably mean a more meaningful seasonal change around then. And no, this is not merely hurrying up spring every year. That's for simpletons. It's not just the teleconnector prognostics that signal that. There's other aspects that no one reads when one writes about them -

This isn't circumstantially the same phenomenon as "home school" the COVID restrictions were a shock that carried with it intangibles that don't occur from home schooling as general, sophisticated practice. There are a couple families on my block that home school their children, and they have plenty of social outlets and involvements, and are well adjusted. Jamming kids at home with no actual home schooling taking place, and closing them off to social outlets is conflating apples and oranges. Different cultural-phenotype entirely.

It's a tough one for me. I enjoy the gloam light ( Scottish expression...) of summer evenings that lingers on, dying so slowly that energy feels eternal. Hours I do not wish to be cut short by human convention that satisfies one group in lieu of another. The sun will set at 7:15 instead of 8:15 ( or so...) if the decision is to go that way. And that is just at the apex of summer; it's really more like setting of 6:55 ( or so...) as the bulk summer average. 6:55 ? That's like permanently April. A month I hate. F that. On the other hand, I see it as a problem for those that have no choice but to spend a couple or hours or 3 prior to sun up in the winter... if the decision is to go the other way. What with kids and/or long commuting, and/or just not having the luxury of a salaried sort of look the other way flexibility of mid or upper echelons occupations... That's really a large huge demographic. I work from home in a mid level occupation. I log in, for the advantages of an internet. No car. No traffic. I also (sadly) don't have any children. These circumstances mean I do not have to deal with that which would add stress - such as doing life in the middle of the f'ing night. Point being, I get it going the other may not work as well for total society. I think though, as technology continues to evolve, and proves ever more transformative to the way society functions, some of the factorization of darkness in the morning may get alleviated. It's not hard to imagine a future where most schooling is done from home period. And ... societal convention of shift work is a human invention, anyway. There's no edict of Natural physical laws that says anyone has to be to work by 7am or else; that humanity's Karenism and/or other control happy BS deciding that. Usually starts at CEO greed and trickles down as policy.. LOL. It may take decades to modulate the machinery of society ... "Technically" we are already species capable of doing that, but as usual ...cultural heritage gets in the way of changes, and so leaps of advancement only seem less possible than they really are... etc.

Makes sense with us locally as we've observed BN but not out of control for the period in question. Like I was suggesting to Will earlier, I wonder if the February numbers were colder than January for those regions of western Europe, Eurasia, China/Siberia, because the January alone didn't have these regions.

These extended products, like the Eu W and the GE, lag behind the standard 360-hr ranged ensemble means by several computational cycles. In fact, I think we're on the 2 day stint at the moment. There'll be another run tonight... I'd be surprised if the next GEF-based extension looks the same. Either that, or the more current week 2 regular 360-hr would needs to change.

Good question ... ... we are past the solar min and moving toward March when things start to happen or hint that times are changing. Albeit slower vs faster depending on the year in question. This year one might think it would be slower, based on persistence alone. There are other reason's though to suspect it may take longer than the 2nd week. I think when it trips it's going to be dramatic. This is a candidate year for us to go from cool bias temps and even storm ptype contention and enabled perception with heads buried in proverbial winter snow, ... straight to 70s the following week. LOL. When that happens, definitely has to be after the 10th though and it may take closer to the 20th..

For the spring enthusiasts: oh god here it comes... Pleasy weesie, with sugar on top ... end this

This winter may have been a good example of how ENSO is too heavily relied upon in seasonal outlooks and always has been. About 12 or so years ago ... even NCEP began cautioning in their seasonal outlooks that the polarward indices can at times overpower and lead to break down of the correlations they use - name ENSO as primary - for more N latitudes such as the NP-GL-N OV and NE regions. This season's layout smacks like it was a poor La Nina performer over N Amer.

I wonder if the Eurasian/China anomalies were more in the February time span. The just January was quite a bit different - but it was also a different source I'm guessing just judging by the graphics' complexion, too.

Yeah, this is the best way to look at it (bold). That f'n look though... this below? this is the worse for the most possible people. You're not getting spring; you're not getting storms because of elephant ass on trampoline kinematic stoppage. Worst for the most possible people and no one can rejoice, misery.

All I'm saying is that if that ends up going from a -EPO, into that ? Back is not broken. But to be fair ... it also depends on what we want to call back breaking. It's subjective ... Relaxing the never get as high as 32 F with lows between 0 and 15? Okay. But if we are replacing with 4 or 5 days of napage, only to then follow by unfunnable indeterminably long compression windy cold no storms shit eating 37 F... "to me" that is trying to oversell the back as actually having been broken. But like I said ..that's just me talkin' Now, if we want to argue that -EPO loads cold into a massive historically preposterous P.O.S. oddity flow, won't happen? fine.

Agreed ... but it may be transient. I'd like to say we turned the corner but the longer range has different ideas. There may only be a relaxation in the recent relative cold persistence for 5 days but that deep range -EPO ... it's going to load cold anew but where? After that rough Mar 2 -7th -EPO the hemisphere evolves into a strange look - all the ens system agree too so no luck there. 90% of all negative anomalies in the entire N hemisphere are compressing the flow from Chicago to S of Greenland toward the end of the first week of Mar. This being directly after said -EPO, it's like the ballast of all the cold available is completely displaced off the polar field, and is jamming SE. Spring canceled if this sets ... period! Not saying it will... Strange orientations like this sometimes have a way of not happening. LOL. This is about the only way to be cold when the numerical fields derive to a +EPO/-PNA/+AO/+NAO (the NAO may be +23 here!!)

Decreasing in significance.. The ensembles appear to be getting more members opting toward a frontal pass with a wave on it, rather than an organized kink cyclone on the boundary that rides up after like those tastier runs before. The operational versions almost lost it all together on the 00z cycles ... I'm sort of losing patience with these models correcting faster/progressive, in the sense that I don't believe any of these "threats" any longer. Not sure how one can after this unflappable persistence to degenerate storm spaces. They're (models) are doing it again... the whole season's been plagued by this rug pulling aspect. It looks like a thing may just work out but as the period in question moves into mid range, the heights lower too much from the N two aspects begin: offsets the short wave strength; speeds things up so that even if we got something of it it's barely an afternoon's worth.

yeah those last couple of frames is suspect considering the changes that have taken place... We'll see. I was talking about the operational run -

yeah i don't get that behavior. cultural relativism is for the birds, that straight up looks like a Darwin thing happening - hopefully it works.. help with the global population issues

Oh, so rainy ... hm

I actually don't hate the 28th - heh, things break according to the tele's that's the last snow event of the season ( prior to bowling ball times.. but those are something else) But the flow is relaxed(ing) with more a backed off EPO allowing the western component ridge of the total +PNA mode to maybe for once this year actually pop a bit more. Just setting the table here...

It's in the extended so tfwiw ... but this 12z op Euro definitely retreats deep winter mid way through this run. By mid way thru the first week of Mar the hydostratic height (thickness) tapestry S of the Can/U.S. border is increasingly more flaccid, with a lot of > 540 showing up as far N of central IL-OH valley. Spring vibe for sure.

and I don't think it's below normal per se across NNE ( temps) ? maybe that's changed.

Looks like that through about the 7th...10th of March, yeah. But, I also caution ( you know this... ) if the tapestry of thicknesses relax at all, you know how folks get kind of disconnected. After all this time, people may forget that our rest state will bounce - not going to address the why-elephant. I'll just keep it to the notion that we're after solar min, so a 537 dm afternoon with light west wind and sun will highly likely propel the temperatures over most machine guidance, and/or probably the cold addled forecaster's expecations. LOL. The old nape season bust factor... We may need some time to get reintroduced to the real world when this -EPO dominating thing relaxes. There's one more pulse of that ( for now ..) next week... it may play a role in the 28th thing, we'll see on that.. 6z GFS blah blah. but after that, it looks interesting the longer range. All sources still insist a bigger collapse will happen around that temporal boundary. It's not being pushed back either. Probably it will eventually can kicked at least a little. Never seen a warm up in spring happen on time - we could go Venus on Earth, and Earth will find away to point Labrodor's giant cryo butt at us, and then deliberately overdose it with laxative. But hey... if an Ides +EPO/-PNA/+(AO/NAO) can somehow soar us from this, to that... that'd be pretty cool to see.