Typhoon Tip

Keep in mind… We’re getting towards the time of the year where above normal may not necessarily be “warm” in the sensible weather. This relativity is especially true when you get towards Halloween. As an aside, the first week of October may have some exceptionally anomalies, but we’ll see… Also +.01 is above normal That chart doesn’t mean you’re gonna roast because it’s extra dark red

They're definitely doing more ... just by virtue of acknowledging the problems. They're also - from appearance alone ...granted - solving the problems they can solve more easily, first. I perfectly valid longer term stratagem. But is a strategy nonetheless. Contrasting, America has turned their faces toward the wrong side of history ( science, much less objective reality - ) in their - apparent - seeking of comfort. It's really a populist movement based on a combination of fear and anger: two of Satan's favorite weapons against humanity ... ha ('not religious; that's just dark humor) It's not even climate that causes them pain. It was the other aspects of pure humanism that sent this spiraling decay of responsibility. It's a quirk in history that it conflicts with the climate doom awareness. If the Libs didn't yank WOKEism into something that's clearly biologically unsound ... and start Karenizing hard-ons and ruining lives, and even pushing that agenda into formal legislation .. they would not have marginalized huge voting block populations to the point of anger. That's why we're in a veritable teetering with a fascist overthrow - which in itself is fantastically being ignored. This whole morass blocks any agenda having to do with climate consideration in America, because, of the two, Climate does not appeal as the real danger to every days. They other stuff does. I just want to say something here in capital, embolden letters to signify that yes ... I am yelling at at these consummate dumb mother fuckers walking the earth among those that are trying to spare in the wrath of man's idiocy. Temperature rises associated with climate change does not cause species extinction, TEMPERATURE RISE HAPPENING !FASTER! THAN SPECIES CAN ADAPT is causing the problem Lol... just so we're clear. There really seems to be a huge variance in intellectual capacity. I used to think this was a moral problem. Like the "wont' happen in my life time" wasn't bad enough, right? Yeah there's that sentiment going on out there but ... mmm, that's not it. There's a problem with capacitance in multi-disciplinary, multi-dimensional comprehension. Lot of long words to just simply say, simpletons, which unfortunately are greater than 50% of the population density, just can't understand much of this. It would be okay if that was the only problem ... sort of. I mean at least morally. But the problem is, they are dumb fucks that instead of learning, choose the easy road of toeing the line with likes of which have 0 qualifications for rendering advice and truth on the matter; unwittingly and without conditional objective analysis, aligning with with both moronic and immoral leaders. This is not very likely to end well.

not after today ...? I suspect they can move the means dial a lousy .1 when they're like 82/63 and something like +15 hahaha hyperbole. ( to lazy to look at anything specific at the moment)

wow, that's the best warm signal I've seen all year now that I dig in a bit. man. All agencies in on it too. You have weather bell with a -EPO/-D(PNA), in spatial temporal sync with a +NAO. Meanwhile ... over at the rotated principle component analysis version at CPA ( not to charm you with dialect or nothin' ) the -D(PNA) is in complete ballistic downward trajectory. It drops like 3 sigmas in 5 days in the first week of the month. If this were July we'd really really roast. Not sure about the first week of October with slant sun, though.

That's a goodly warm signal showing up there thru October 10ish. It's gotten coherent in the operational runs as well - in fact, they led the ens derived telecon spread as the latter had been flatter. Now both with +height anomaly. we'll see. Not sure on amplitude but seein' as we've seen 80 between Nov 1 and Nov 10, twice in the last 4 years, I don't doubt it happening a month earlier in Octobers

LOL 0::2

looks like dry out with frontal sweep but backside modest 850 mb anomaly persists. d-slope trajectories under full sun ( tho seasonally tepid) should send T's above climo

As is, that’s moving too slow. That thing wouldn’t even produce a wind gust at Worcester. But just a light breezes on the Cape. Can’t move a system that slowly over cold water that large south of Long Island. The oceanic boundary layer becomes an impenetrable inversion, and there would be no wind beneath the cloud height, particularly when there’s rising pressure in the core.

Heh I wonder if we could actually put up a 90 that late in the year

dry summers and autumns show some correlation to ensuing winter temperatures - colder not sure about 2026, though ... such is so during prior/older climate generation

better

est ... 'deepEST' does better there lol

it's the NAM so ... it's skimpier on QPF areal coverage and amounts than other guidance. there's an old saying that dry begets dry ... heh, NAM and a saying, vs all other models

random thought once the clouds claim the sky later in the day ... wondering if the sun will not be seen again until Saturday.

sun is sloped and tepid, getting more sloped and cooler ... soon 60+ dps will only make the side streets sweat - nothing else of consequence. the reason is because the sun doesn't dump in enough energy to keep both a higher dp air mass afloat, while also providing enough energy to simultaneously elevate the kinetic temperature. granted this is all more so the environmental limitation (at this latitude) by mid oct+ ... but is already more challenging.

heh i’d be a little bit leery of using that comparison because there’s clearly a resolution change there I.e., the bottom panel has perhaps multiple factors of greater sampling density… suggestive by the granularity

You know ... there's another way. Change the incentive model. If it becomes profitable to go green, problem solved.

Just my opinion but this air mass arrival's the shot across the bow - symbolic hearkening that the next might be more discerned. Probably we recover with at least tepid warmth later next week ... normal after these first 'smells like autumn' marginal froster deals - less marginal across NNE of course.. It's also ( as an aside...) like a 'sub-continental tuck' air mass. It's not really continental in scale. It is just a transient short duration cool shot curling an autumn air mass sneakily through Quebec. Buffalo has no idea it's happening - straight N shot for 24 hours. Altho it may try to cheat radiate one more night before it rolls out. The more canonical sab air mass looks more PNA-ish. It's almost just a reflection of how our geodesic circumstance sucks cold into this specific region ha

OH, well yeah... We're actually saying the same thing. I suspect it takes like a +3 sigma warm ENSO to finally tastes more than pepperRONIs enough to finally flavor the pizza of winters. haha... sorry about the dad joke. By the way ... you and I first started speaking ( in concept ) about RONI back in like 2009 - not sure you recall but that science isn't very novel at least to me. In fact, I remember back in 2004 having a discussion similar to compression/speed surplus with a fellow college alum. Anyway, point really being that I think when concepts emerge in multiple realms and are the same, that tends to be closer ( at least 'closer' ) to universally useful. Kinda of like fire was discovered all over the world at the same time 10s of thousands of years faster than word could have traveled about how to control it.

I'm aware of that but .. I don't believe they have that right. The ENSO and the La Nina apparent fingerprint is coincidental in that sense - not being forced by the ENSO state/thermal distribution as it terminates into the westerlies. It just so happens to be that in the absence of either, there is a feeble ONI that encourages upwelling over the eastern Pac but it doesn't really reflect a La Nina. Makes it exceedingly difficult to parse the two apart, sure.. because the expanding HC and the break down of that device/organized circulation machinery, lends to a residual SS stressing that orients E --> W In other words, the correlation is too linear.

that's probably going to be a pretty good radiational cooling/frost result Saturday night.. probably all the way down here in interior SNE, too

ENSO isn't truly neutral ... it's more like quasi negative, fw little iw ... biased in regions < 3.4. The problem is, regardless of that, the surrounding atmosphere is so expanded beyond there's no geophysical triggers to force a pattern evolution because of that. It's like a chick moving around inside an eggshell - the outside world doesn't know that is happening. That won't ( likely...) characterize the winter ahead, of course. But for the time being, the intraseasonal variance may see wondering into a quasi positive or negative ( probably favoring the latter this time...), and it won't mean a darn thing to the hemisphere. Not until the seasonal compression of the hemisphere quickens the geopotential height medium --> increasing basal winds, and that's when the planetary wave tendencies/feedbacks are forced/exposed. In fact, this may transitively then feedback and force a more coherent tendency with the ENSO, one way or the other ... Anyway, that's probably ... I dunno, later October+ but more so by Thanks Giggedy. And that may not really turn out to be the winter hemisphere. Some > 50% of the time, yes, there is some vestigial usefulness in identifying - usually through - the nonlinear observations of "lurking" tendencies during those early seasonal flavors... It's your chance to be artful.. The other aspect - as I wonder into a seasonal outlook tendency I did not mean to ... - is that it's been papered by other sources that jet meanders are becoming more common, particularly during the shoulder seasons. It's why I suspect that we may observe some blocking tendencies in the AO(WPO/EPO/NAO) between the late Oct - Xmas time.. But I grow increasingly confident with each passing year that the winter hemisphere might be forever changed - it seems regardless of all leading indicator methods, we seem to wend our way into a version of: This may obliterate, however ...as the machinery of deep winter takes over with its (probable) repeat performance of > normal gradient everywhere and basal flow velocities hurried along, that disturbs resonance feedbacks and patterns have difficulties establishing... That means we may have problem locking in either cold or warm, in lieu rapid variance ( relatively...). 10 day winter pops followed by 53 F streaks kind of thing. That's also sloppy description of the last several winters, frankly, which seem to have become a leitmotif.

Is there a way to actually do that? I've always just done it the hard way, but ultimately gave up when the thread's hundos pages deep...

Yet ... AC only adds more to the anthropomorphic forcing integral, too. Humanity needs to accept an opposition to using fossil fuels to power the grid, being far more apropos. CC worsening will incur increased frequency of those types of predicaments, like the AC catch-22. It may seem like just a pie slice in the total anthropomorphic forcing but situations like that will get more common. Obviously ... not a novel assertion to suspect that, just sayn' Expediency to solve local/regional imminent threat to health and safety forces taking measures within those realms to stop the death, now. And yet ...as those measures provide immediate protection they only augment the why-for crisis is at hand in the first place. It's just laughable to know what the solution really should be, while humanity divisively obfuscates from seeing it ... Instead, application of all these duct tape on a leaking dam strategies that evade the real problem. I keep coming across all these articles featuring these technological discoveries on how to combat x-y-z and I'm like ...Jesus. If you're nauseated by the potion, just stop fucking drinking the potion. It all comes back to what Don and I were ruminating over a couple of weeks ago ... the insidious nature of "hiding" CC from common experience. It has to appeal directly to the natural senses before the awareness moves from intellectualism and debate to a state of prevalence. It's just the evolutionary biology of all organisms, their impulse response to crisis is slaved to that system. The human species is no different... The difference here is that we are just beginning to see CC finally appealing ... but it will probably take some time to wake up the species awareness fully enough. A time in which we'll see these follies.