Typhoon Tip

That's actually more Nina I thought - the SE ridge and Nina are lusty sweaty bed companions during winter... but heh.... CC will f* it all up too

managing a property from oversees? hmmm

Huh. Actual bright sun blazin away out there

It’s a bigger problem … I'm not disagreeing with you below; more like adding to it - it’s a socio-technological related forcing in group response. There is too much varied information, exceeding processing/categorization capacity of most of population. It’s entirely intuitive that this will integrate unfavorably in groups and larger orders … setting off the cultural mode of distrust of information - compounding this dilemma … there are nefarious manipulators clever enough to even leverage that confusion because they benefit from uncertainty and the anxiety an uncertain world instills at a personal level. This is why nationalism-type modes have popularized in recent decades, world over. It’s really all a defensive contraction born out of fear of lost identity(s). The sense of invading ethos breeds pathos. Tribalism in some respects is also apropos as a response description. So it’s really more than media. It’s how tech has interfered with the social evolution of humanity. Media, of all forms, being ‘techno-reliant’ is certainly part of that. But technology forcing occurring so fast in history is destabilizing. Some can handle it. Many can not. There are legit information sources but hard to ferret them out in a blizzard … Then the few that engage in the Machiavellian distortion shit are living in a hay-day, for their nefarious goals thrive in a basis of obfuscating information saturation. All they need is to appeal to nationalistic opinions, if not flavoring rhetoric in that regard, and the suggestions will resonate.

Or, I could have just typed this hahaha

Just musing over the 2-meter temp products from Pivotal ... wow. No shit! The GFS has something like a 8 consecutive days in the low and mid 90s, with a couple of them tickling a hundred. The Euro has a trough bullying across southern Canada ~ 210 or so hours.. mm, not impossible, but the ensembles are less emphatic with that idea. Despite that potential interruption ( which obviously subject to change at this range anyway ), the model still has multiple days of 90+, even sending 100 this next Wednesday. It may be that what is in store is the greatest heat of the season by virtue of length. That big heat near the tale end of June was short and of course very sweet. The one at the end of July, with record highs at multiple climo sites around S and C NE, was also not exceptionally long. But this looks in the models like the scalars might be 2-3 less, but lasting for a long time. It would win out in bulk....

That was toasty looking 00Z GFS run. At least aloft... Not sure what the surface shenanigans are up to in that run, but from D6 to something like D12 there's an impressive eastern mid latitude height layout. Almost looks and behaves like a resonant feed-back scenario, too - something that I'd all but given up on. Incapable of happening over eastern N/A mid latitudes. Ensembles products: In simple terms they are all implying a trough in the west, ridge in the east from ~D5+. That's the general take away. Little longer version: The numerical teleconnectors have gotten hotter, regardless of the operational GFS' romance with the idea. So at present there is a warm signal in ensemble-derived modes. I had commented recently that the numbers were more nominal looking. Thru yesterday that was true, but this has changed since. You almost wonder if that should have been expected ... I remember commenting to Scott a week ago that there was a recurring theme to lower/correct Pacific NW heights downward. Eventually, the numbers will tend to align with the spatial synoptic behavior. We've since passed through a +PNA, perhaps temporarily offsetting that.. but putting that mode behind, it seems the previous tendency is reappearing now. My guess is that the ACATT would rather that stops doing that by November, and not return until next spring, but cross that bridge I guess. lol CPC's PNA source is still -D(pna) but it only descends to neutral. Other sources have it going to -2 SD - which is strange, because the PNA is so huge as a physical domain space, that it's not trivial having that entire index be either. So something is a bit off there... But they all agree on a -EPO during the onset of the -D(PNA) regardless of magnitude. That combination at this time of year is still a heat signal over eastern mid latitude continent. Whatever comes up ... it's likely the last bid for multi-day 90+

You guys are such goobers First of all if that set up that way to the west system would curve down into Mexico and the east system a curve out to sea. So yeah, hopefully the media made a big deal out of a double hit and then that happens

We’ll see… The AO is going negative over the next week.

https://www.instagram.com/p/DM_hGUPy9sp/?igsh=MW0wOXY2aTl6N3JyeQ==

At 300+ hours!? Mathew is being "grossly" out of line. Complete bullshit. No technology has any requirement in that range to be factual with that granularity. Fact... running these tool out that far is nothing other than entertainment.

I'm wondering if it can get hot underneath the telecon suggestion. That's a bad bad sign for the CC deniers ha

Wait, who said "dismantled" ?

I think that's in the plausible reason group. Sox started winning more so when Roman came up and pitching improved. The trade predated by a bit more than that - but yeah it's plausibly related. Dynamics and such. It's tougher one because they were in the midst of a 5 or 6 game W streak, but then went into a slump where they were 4 and 11 shortly after he left. That gave the allusion ( at least ...) that it hurt the clubhouse and soldiering. Roman came up from the minors ...June 11 I think... so it kind of goes both way. I just see the biggest wins streaks of the season happening since (Roman came up and pitching improving)/2 ...but if we wanna include Devers, whom I was starting to not like anyway Ha...sure. They're all doing better in hitting for that matter.

they're 19W/6L in their last 25 games ... . Really, if you look at the numbers ... a lot of this torrid pace began around the time or shortly after two things happened: Roman came up from the minors; Bello and Buehler started pitching better. Everything else being more or less plausible, those two factors appear to correlate rather well. So ...yeah, they should scare Roman away like they typically do with talent. heh

HAHA ... probably 70F at 15K feet

Okay, yeah I didn't look at the EPS last week to be honest. I just recall several cycles of operational runs showing higher heights aloft, with sfc 2-m's above 85 from those sources. Bravo to the EPS I guess... OH wait. Know what ... I may have f-up the time ranges. There was small interlude of +PNA that rippled through the continent and the operational warmth might have been more aft of that - possible. But, I do believe though that there's some idiosyncratic aspects that were not well handled, that have played into the cooler profile, too. Smoke being one of them. The last 3 days were more than just inconveniently pal looking skies. Plus, the high pressure moving through Quebec when working on top of smoke ...there's a bit of synergistic feedback there -

you get the feeling that idiosyncrasies are teaming up to dim summer though. Smoke this, correcting toward over top highs that ( which import too much E wind ). This week was not going to be BN in the guidance and only turned out that way because of mitigating factors very poorly or not represented a week ago. Meanwhile, lower Asia over to Japan is apparently breaking all kinds of staggering high heat records... We are exiting the solar max in under a week. The first couple of weeks of the solar transition season that begins then will still feature hot enough sun - so it's not an all or nothing environmental aspect, it's a 'turning down the dimmer switch' thing. But, smoke days, and/or poorly models purely chaotically emerged confluence causing over-the-top heavy with +PP, we can't really do that while losing solar potency and expect things to toast up. So, I wouldn't call it "breaking summer's back" ...but it's not a hot implication. It's not helping ( me personally ) that both the spatial layout and telecon, both, are pretty nominal for heat at the moment. The operational runs also deflated some of the geopotential medium along 40 N E of Chicago, so ... they may still be showing some heat in their 2-m temperature distributions and so forth, but -deltas in the overarching metric, while these reasons to not get warm keep happening ... that's not really sending much confidence in heat, either. Stop with the idiosyncratic mitigators would help... That all said, I don't see a significant cold front, nor any compelling reason when studying the recency of the mass fields and the numerics therefrom, that argue for that, either. Mostly, it all looks rather torpid and frankly kind of a boring mid month. Things can change. Again, I wouldn't 86 the outlook for remainder of summer, either. I'm not buying any of the TCs up the EC by the GFS, which does this every year as seemingly perfunctory seasonal error by that model. There's are certain and significant correlated climatologically based structures all but required in the larger flow scheme, that do not include what the GFS is attempting to do.

pretty sure the smoke cost AN yesterday and probably a normal at least west of the city today. ACATT kind of got lucky here. ... does that mean 'all cold all the time' ? I have trouble keeping up with the acronyms around here -

I don't think I've ever seen a BD stall in this position with a high pressure sitting on top of it like that. It's a twig hold back an elephant's ass.

I'm pretty sure we got gypped by smoke both yesterday and today relative to potential.

hmm every 2 days the GFS has an over top +PP doing the Ontario-Quebec transit though. Those are all BD cautions with that model. Euro not so much. So yeah, it's otherwise dog-days of summer tendency in the model runs lately, sure. There's also a tropical signal based on climatology with pattern analog stuff. The models don't key in on climate, more so their physical detection is describing how/why the climate analog stuff evolved the way it had. Either means of prognostic suggest something coming along ... But Scott's right about the EPS and frankly I'm not seeing very climo friendly look overall for any such system to be an issue here. You want a -D(nao) on the western limb, with some sort of establishing S/N steering all the way up.

Getting the distinct impression that this current high level cloud passage has cleaner air immediately behind it when looping the visibles

With that circulation medium? that is so stupid what that model tried to do no chance. although not stupid because no model has any responsibility to correctness at that range

LOL ... yeah, it's all Steve's fault the planet Earth has accelerated CC to the point where unmitigated natural disasters befall a burgeoning population that's been 1,000 years in making an 8 billion population of environmental destroyers ... f*n boomer! sorry that exchange was funny