Typhoon Tip

90 at KOWD at 10 (but by the time I snipped and pasted this they clicked back to 89) that appears to be the exception rather than the rule. The hottest sites are 86 to 88 but I'll give it the obs through 10:20 out of fairness to perturbation physics ( haha). I know you have Plymouth but I like this NWS product that KGRR's office hosts, too ... most are 84 however, excluding obvious inversion and/or elevations. Hot day

Very weak gradient in the region may spare shores by allowing the sea breeze to claim .. even some distance inland. Noticing Logan kicked around to an ESE and no heat out there... It's feeble. Doubt flags are even wobbling much west of Back Bay, but as we warm the interior that may press inland. NAM nailed that idea for BOS in the FOUS grid actually. I was wanting to geek out and test that and here we are. Wonder if we even see a bit of a breeze boundary on some rad products in the afternoon doing that thing where it's side-winding slowly inland. Anyone west of I-95 has no hope for relief. It's now 86 to 88 at most garden sites ( in between the NWS obs) and some of the NWSers like the Oxbow site on Rt 2 are already 90 - sorry read that wrong, 86, but that is typically a hotdog. Anyway, there's so little gradient we're not getting any natural ventilation.

86 by 9 ... not bad. Today wasn't supposed to kiss a 100's nuts anyway, but we'll also see where we are at 10. "90 by 9" ... "10 after 10" I like those two, but I've always thought that 90 by 9 sets up 10 by 10. Like if it's 90 at 10, it was bear min required, but 90 by 9 gives you the option of an aberrant alto stratus plume ( like now ...heh ) coming along and parlaying a 99.4 for a high later in the day. If you do that at 11am, and it was 90 at 10, then 10 after 10 seems more likely to fail... 97 to 99, in this very delicate, very intolerant setting or else it fails region.

I've always suspected a bit of Mandela Effect with that 1975 heat. There's a couple of factors that ( I feel -) play into that being remembered as something more than it really was. 1, the preceding 15 years saw fewer notably hot summers ( as far as I can find ). This may set up civility with a bit of acclimation bias. Such that making triple digits would sensibly stick out. As Brian pointed out, PVD 104° and BOS 102° that fateful day were impressive ( no intent to downplay that significance here ) but we did comparable readings July 2011. So in terms of significance, I'm not sure 1975 August is more. 2, the 107 ( suspect ) reading then plays into that sensible bias; at a society scale, there weren't any efforts to refute the 107 number/instrumentation second consideration ... etc. So, given time this myelinates the memory.

It's call thermal memory associated with climate change ...

The heat wave is destined to break down .. obviously. That statement appears to be over selling tho. We’ll see but the thickness don’t fall below 570 behind a “weak boundary” - they’re right about that much… . Thats pretty warm and actually modestly above normal in that particular metric the whole time period averaged. There would likely be ocean modulation for eastern zones but BN may be a bit of an oversell inland in Thu/Fri. Winds also veer back s-SW by Sat and Sun. Aside from… nighttime lows will likely remain elevated if that geneal synoptic regime played out that way.

Smokin'! that 12z NAM turns the dial on Tuesday. Jesus... about as hot as I've ever seen these grid numbers, and this is actually 00z Tues( 8pm Mon evening) 60000483310 -0494 132911 82342616 60000392512 00997 153109 82352716 that 34C is good for 37 in the 2-meters... so, buck-2 probably between 2pm and 8 oclock, and probably historic. I don't think the 24th of June is particularly tough to beat anyway, but how about 900 mb level with 26 and 27 C's ... This is pure heat.

I feel like two things will happen today ... ( wait, do you mean today or next Sunday ? ) anyway, for today, temps will be adjusted down and the heat warning or advisory whatevers will be cut back... but then at 4 pm, we will have squeezed our way to 87/75 such that the HI's are still like 99 or something, anyway haha...

Let this be a lesson to the Met community ...these things always curl deeply/gauge backward into rising heights.

Watch it be 70s 100s heat and destruction heat 100s 70s the next 4 days. 0 heat wave with severe impact

Radar looks like 70s/light rain Sunday wah wah wahhhh

Im wondering how the rest of the summer will be. I’ve seen this several times since 2016 … we get a heat surge in the last week of June/first week of July … then the rest of those summers relaxed back to an uninspired temperate boredom really. Onward to a no show hurricane season then a gradient saturated piece of shit waste of time winter If we reset the dial on the solstice, “suddenly” we’ve seen this before.

This sounds remarkably similar to the environmental circumstances within which we had that severe event here 2 weeks ago.. Same time of day... seemingly nil SBCAPE ... but a pocket of EML was tapped by a small cell that then nuked Although surface based instability progs at that time of day are essentially nil, steepening lapse rates aloft support nearly 1500 J/kg of MUCAPE with increasing effective shear to around 40-45 kt, a shear/instability space which could support embedded elevated supercells above more stable sfc layer.

Stunning out there ... 81 F with late day summer solstice sun, and wind ventilation pushing warm air is really earned after some of those god forsaken days of May

so it's made it to 81 F here same next door at KFIT.. It's a weird combination getting these canopy leaner wind gusts at that warm of a temperature. ...just anecdotally.

Same page ... This has evolution room, tho. It's really almost ideal. So we'll see, but for now. If it's 98/72 ... it's not going to make any difference if it's 101/72 save posterity perhaps. Also, many times I've seen big heat, for 3 hours in the afternoon the 72 DPs slip to 66ies while the temperatures are at apex.

no shit ( bold ) I've started bringing this observation up about 15+ years ago actually ... long before it even showed up in papers, that the HC was appearing to be enlarged(ing). I have been relating it to winter gradient steepening and the observed increase in basal geostrophic wind velocities - also the jet cores them selves have quickened. Lot of air-land speed record on west --> east flying commercial air craft over the Pac and Atlantic flight routes in the last 20 years. Anyway, it's effecting storm morphology... and precipitation distribution as well as frequency in the winter. But the cloud aspect ... yeah that's interesting too.

Euro's been having increased run to run variability on details with this week. still, the ens are about at the ceiling for the means. I'm wondering if this doesn't have an extra special sauce with it and the models might or might not even see it - Oper Euro looks lagged/too cool on Monday - may be a mixing issue

I liked your idea of a feeble kind of onshore wind unable to really cool beach/shore roads down much below 87 or so, while the baseball fields just inland have EMTs hauling heat victims away... (well, you didn't say that but I'm havin fun with it ) This could also be a great way to draw sharks closer to the Atlantic side swimmers, huh.

Scott's right in that assessment ... it's a warmer than normal mid latitude continent synoptic and super synoptic ( tendency...) through 300+ hours. The GFS actually rolls big heat back in by next Saturday, and I'm not completely sold on the idea that Thur and Frid will really turn out that corrected. Even if so, it transient and would likely yield the bigger signal with at least episodic heat returns. GGEM is essentially the same.

These models are actually responding to the rapidity of the ridge burst in the larger synoptic sense. The MCS zygote is already skirting E through the NP Saturday but then it moves into a favorable differential thickness packing where the ridge/heat suddenly expands NE... It's possible the CIN shuts the door in NE while the NAM is still "sort of" right about the outflow boundary.. I could see that being a burst of wind and a coughing shelf cloud field that doesn't have anything aft of it. So sort of mid way between the global and meso idea -

yes ...it does, whenever in the winter the Euro's given the base a dopamine jolt and the gfs' shittin' in punch bowl blows the Euro out of the water

NAM is fascinating .. it's doing a classic plains outflow boundary severe response on the trailing edge of a derecho outflow boundary at 11am Sunday, then... rolls that mess out in time for big heat numbers by 20z later that afternoon.... Below is 11am... by 4pm, it's 90+ with no trace of this and west wind everywhere. GFS does not have this ... ends up 95 to 99

Jesus ...look at this 582+ dam thickness ballooning over us by 4pm Sunday afternoon... What ever machine numbers are on that day, go bigger. Very strange to have a Caribou low with that type of circulation and that going on simultaneously. this is highly unusual idiosyncratic behavior

heh... it still has it though. Euro and GGEM's been on it as well... Granted it sucks with the placement.... It's ripping it more E and not curving it south. I'd still suggest that it's possible it turns the corner. Btw, this 12z NAM implies a kind of heat burst Sunday afternoon for eastern zones. The grid numbers suggest a wall of big heat sweeps in after 18z. It's not a 'textbook' heat burst, but it could surge from lower 80s to upper 90s late that day.