Typhoon Tip

Oh.. I know - I meant, there are 'certain individuals' who've come to familiarization as wanting that ... (implicit) ... Preferences aside though... you know, my aunt was in Arizona. Buck 10 if it was 90 she said you couldn't hardly tell the difference, but your nose cracked and bled if you dare sneezed. Figuratively speaking... We all know desert heat is different from wet heat, too, but I've never experienced that. It's on my odd little bucket list of things to do... step off plane, 120/19, just to say I did -

Honestly ... I fully believe this ( interesting comparison by the way! ) has a lot to do with what folks see in the models? Last summer's early July goop was perhaps overly curved with ridging ... particularly in the GFS.. but even the Euro was a Venetian bubble... Yet, where it turned out not to be as tall or spatially correctly axial, it was definitely vastly over produced in those GFS operational monster surface results. Late June when it began modeling surface 2-meter temperatures of 115 at Beford Mass... Um.. really - It was a standard heat wave the more I scratch head and think back. At least where ever I was ... I didn't get more than 98 but once, at the Davis' around my town, and most days were 94-ish... Granted, the DPs were running 74 to 78 ...which we can debate that whatever - look, it was impressively hot. But it wasn't "as hot" as it can be, or has been... 1911 ... 1930s... 'Hot Saturday 1975' ...etc.. But, my point was going to be ... if the models this year had that big impression of the apocalypse ridge, that seems to resonate more with folks' interpretation. I just got done musing about this above.. how we are getting heat despite the look aloft.

Mentioned that last night, yup - I guess folks aren't really concerned with it, or paying much attention if we're not talking 96/69 ... but, today through/some point this weekend ...there is a shot at a low-grade heat wave. Weak sauce... you betcha. 90/58 meh. But DPs will rise during... Friday could 90/72 for HI of 99 ...

I also think/wonder if the futility of the GFS and/or it's ensemble mean ... if they're going to run the model out to 380 hours like that, they should try and adopt some form or variance or another of what the Euro does with it's smoothing techniques. Neither model ( or any model I should say ...) is likely to ever perform with much remarkable accurracy beyond D6 or 7 without some form of direct atmospheric controls ( deep future sci fi ) anyway... but, so long as they insist on using the bandwidth, try to integrate some technique that stops that model from automatically buckling giant mass fields into a frenzies curvi-linear mess ... It can't hurt -

101/74 ? where did that happen? ...I know I know..

Heh... not to quibble over tedious differences ... but, anything > 94 to me is "big heat" ...so overlapping there, particularly when DPs may approach the upper 60s concurrently at any point. That strikes me as less meaningfully different? I mean, 96/68 is going to feel like 101/60 ... so "maybe not a 100" ... should have been followed by "88 to 92" with less qualifier for this weird DP obsession around here heh

I find this subtlety intriguing... We seem to running two disparate longer-termed environmental forcing, concurrently. I've expressed this opine in the past, and occasionally ... a model run saunters along and puts out a chart that rather nicely illustrates. But, the short version goes like, -AO/Solar Min -vs- GW. Here is one time interval off the 00z GFS ...used arbitrarily ( not a declaration for determinism ) to elucidate the example: The latitude of that jet depicted above is in part A ... unusually far S, and B, unusually powerful nearing the ides of summer. Hard to know how much of A or B is the primary character. It's some of both. The AO at CPC has been predominately negative as of late... So that is consistent with a suppressed latitude above. But also... I mentioned in a post yesterday that the GFS ensemble mean was trying to at last relax the flow. .. as suggested by the teleconnectors... clearly, the operational version isn't interested in relaxing the flow. Anyway, we still have huge heat south of the 40th parallel across the U.S. Both the GGEM and Euro operational runs have 18 C 850 thermal layout everywhere S of IND/NYC ..with embedded plumes clear to almost the mid 20's at that sigma level, from D5 or 6 to the end of the 00z run(s). But this chart above is really protecting regions from S. Dakota -ORD-BOS by persistently ablating the air mass and shearing them off. This jet above .. I like the metaphor of a circular sander grinding it ... Be that as it may, these runs get the BIG heat real close ... In fact, we should be IN the 90s at least once in that time frame from central NE south. All the while that is happening, the actual ridge aspects of the wave signatures remain relatively flat. Very delicate. ... A slight modulation either way would make a 25 F difference in sensible weather. I think -AO is in conflict with a warming world? More so than less.. . yup. I think we have been seeing a preponderance of these fast flow regimes... particularly in winters.. Man! But, seeing this linger into the summer is strange. In a -AO hemisphere ... sped up flow may be more common anyway, ... suppressing cooler heights into the 60-40th band will tend to increase the total gradient --> increased balanced geostrophic wind. But with GW going on... the supposition is that it's enhancing that overall effect.

Dew points aside for the moment ... the interior ribbon from SW NH to White Plains/NYC ... appears set up for a marginal/low grade heat wave. If not tomorrow throw Thurs ... perhaps another shot into the weekend. These MOS have been adding degrees to this week since these days entered the GFSX machine guidance.like 2 ahead 1 back sneakiness and now we are at 90 and 91's ... no idea what kind of dewps

It's funny how Earth does that ... right where they don't need it, let's throw a 10 to 20" QPF tsunamis at 'em

...'cept I wasn't commenting on that at all... It was a response to Jerry's jest about the daylight fader types, and wishing summer away... I guess some people don't like daylight - word

Pretty awesome spectacle on hi res vis imagery during the morning as that towering CB crawled over ...

HA! You must be out yo' mind - 'name names' ....that'd end well in this sort of format... No, just bustin' ballz cuz Jerry was musing about the 'hypocrite' thing - which in the past, whether it is hypocrisy or not, those folks that kept wistfully remarking how the day's "thankfully" start getting short in just three weeks back when we were still suffering a putrid cool/misty/cloudy end of May and hadn't really had any heat at all ... that's not really open to another interpretation. Names aside But, we be humans yo '... and one thing's for certain ... humanity runs on the fuels of individual preferences...

Fantastic difference between the 00z and the 06z in the extended... Firstly, the 00z Euro, GGEM and GFS operationals with a full on SW heat expulsion event signaled for the "highly confident"day 10 range. The GFS version of that would be particularly nasty, too, because it infuses the dragon tongue conveyor into the NW circulation envelope of a WAR signal.. That's like taking 101 F stand alone air/EML mixing potential and infusing it with 70+ DPs ... We're deep into evapotransporation season anyway? So, the continent would exhale moisture into a SW release event - should that come to pass like that blend, which is still longer odds ... - but having a 594 ridge node of that scale and working into the M/A with concomitant curved surface pressure pattern indicative of higher pressure S ...ooph. I mean, there can be puffs of SW released air that don't benefit from WAR...and vice versa...each can be miserable in their own regard, but success in any such vision/set up from 00z would be nasty. Then came the 06z GFS ... December. Really ...this model and cycle somehow just forgets what season we are in ...bucking for a veritable 'shot across the bow' before July 20th of any given years is sort of absurd - though I know there are those on here that'll use their typical razor sharp objective insight to galoot and spin summer as though it's not happening ever again ... heh. I dunno... Thing is, we ride a tightrope in a sense. It seems GW is beginning to have an effectiveness on the baseline circulation ...particularly as driven on our side of the northern hemisphere. We seem to have a default nodal trough over eastern Canada... perhaps as a longer term wave-frequency/mass-balancing for the Pac surplus both sea and air that's being perpetually dumped into the perennial PNAP structure over N/A. That structure features a flat ridge in the west...and a zonal/trough escape westerlies back east... That's called the Perennial North American Pattern, not to be mistaken with the PNA, which is abbreviating Pacific - North American. In this context...the former is sort of "stuck" in a positive mode, which enhances the western ridge, eastern trough. Now ...an astute observer may be inclined to say that the western/GB heights have been tending to sink ...and you'd be right... but that's the "tightroping" ... It's like, that pattern would be that much more amplified if it were not for whatever is driving the offset pattern/negative superposition. Which I really wonder if that's related to the deep solar nadir stuff. These are two vying larger scale canvases. So suppositional thinking ...but, I see two disparate tendencies playing tug of war. The irony is, the GW is the one that want's to make us cooler relative to the global thermal realization ... while the pattern off-set would have heights more WAR like... The end result of all that is more temperate.. Interesting... but, that means it can break either way... I don't think solutions like the 06z are in themselves impossible in a "default SE/-E Canadian nodal trough" canvas... but, the continuity is abysmal. It's more likely the model loses one or the other signal and is sensitive to the alternative.

Doin' it again.... wishing the time away to get to winter -

Still looks like the bigger continental numbers suppress south of NYC. Tho the operational patterns hint there is modulation lurking... The teles are entering their perennial futility .. but I'm still interested in the apparent 0ing of the anomalies. Relaxing and nebularity may follow. There's more chance for big heat in that sort of complexion ... continental ridging growth in less interference aka 1995 Despite all ... machine still gets close to 90 three days this week. Warmer than normal.

I just find it ironic in a kind of 'holistic' sense. We keep hearing and reading UNfake news about these morbid heat waves. These headlines and various media spots could be sensationalized ...some, sure. However, they are being substantiated with empirical record breaking this, and/or other geographic "land dysmorphia" that ... do directly to high heat and hydro, with much more frequency all over the world than is being measured/observed, or endured, in the United States. Why the 'irony' of that : Oour limb of the Industrialized globe is 2nd only to China ... in Anthropogenic green-housing/carbon foot-print. It's like we are being protected somehow by dumb luck from the ad nauseam of our own toxic existence. It seems Nature has no sense of poetic justice... Or, muah hahahaha... Maybe this is part of the plan?

It's really about warm exuberance actually causing some folks anguish... It's innate to them, and it's not even about physical discomfort, either. Warm temperatures along with the increased light times of year triggers endorphins in the majority, but actually has the opposite impact on some psyches. It's called -S.A.D. ..yes, that's "negative S.A.D." ...Little known, but there is a minority that suffers a veritable opposite effectiveness of 'winter blues,' ... They fight the same sort of dysfunctional tendencies, but their trigger is the relative warmth and high sun times of the year. It's true...look it up. And when you read of it ... it will remind you of a lot I mean, it's harmless ultimately... If this were all society had to ever worry about ... which side of + or - .S.A.D. we all reside, we'd be doing pretty good. Seeing as society is not going to survive another 100 years before some multi-faceted cocktail apocalypse forces an inevitable population correction ... ( whether we choose to do so, or not ), obviously we've got much bigger problems. Ha! "Sadly..."

Huh... interesting. Apparently there was a heat advisory in place prior to the run-of-the-mill summer line of showers with some totally pedestrian embedded thunderstorms that got over-warned ...saved for one or two isolated cells, which is also climate ...

Is anyone else verifying anything ? these are weakest sauce warnings I've ever seen. huh

Big he seems plausible to me during the 20th week

Nice anvils though on the western horizon here

Meh. Perhaps. The ribbing is more for the difficulties in realization in the northeast. Im not hugely impressed...though I was several days ago. It seems this has become something more wet .., maybe some bowing.

No soda is obviously the best course ..., but, a little soda, won't hurt you. The problem is that people with eating disorders ...which is a vastly larger number of American population than is generally thought ... thinks that what in reality is too much, is a little ... not understanding that just because it seems like a little to them... These types, less than anything they prefer is "a little" ... Breaking down those illusions are a whole 'nother challenge. I lost 35 lbs since February doing various life-style practices, but didn't cut soda out entirely. I average about 6 to 8 ounces of ginger-ale, which is well short of the 12 to 16 ounce typical purchase size... Now, sure... 7 ounces a day, one might argue the weight loss could have been say... 45 lbs. However, there are tolerance thresholds in the body, where you can handle 'up to' a certain amount of activity and won't gain(lose) weight so long as one is under those limites. Now, I am visibly thinner and my heart rate is like 50 beats a minute. I don't even get winded on runs any more... nearing 4 miles and I can still take a deep breath comfortably. I feel pretty strongly and confidently I'm under said threshold...a.k.a. the real little. So while not engaging is the only way to be Military certain ... I've read and lived that a small amount of cocaine and heroine aren't all that bad -

An EML cap recession exposing 5,000 SBCAPE to 8C/KM lapse rates, with a 100 kt 700 mb jet fist punching over in tandem would be nice... Or bad, depending on one's level of responsible thinking and sanity. heh... this looks like "under water" rainfall rates and training. Honestly, I wonder how much lightning even happens with such high glaciation levels