Typhoon Tip

I'm not convinced that doesn't evolve into one of those EC pipe line flows from the Bahamas ... which might mean less 'sou-easting' and more just straight up 73/71 training tropical downpours. It's getting late in the year for that sort of set up ...tru

You grouse sarcasm ...but heh, it's true. And, glad I'm not the only one noticing around here this cold 'landfill' that seems to be this region of the hemisphere. I've opined and demo'ed stats on this, going back to 2000, 2/3rd ( ~) of the months, we are cooler relative to surrounding. So not all the time...no, but if/when our continent is above normal ( which let's face it ... the majority of months it has been that way ) the majority of those months we are somehow someway colder then that average. But we are above normal - it's like hiding crime. haha But...it suits this particular concentration of enthusiasts just fine and smugly, because despite all protestations and or claim to the opposite, they have a nostalgic/emotional dependency to cold climate events in here - actually to the extent of bi-polar upper mood swings at the very sight of snow storms on models, and it gets unbearable at this time of year when you can sense their gaeity switches turning on just because it's 45, cloudy with light rain ... as if they are somehow closer to their weird cryo neurosis ... ' at least it's a moral victor' How's that for sarcasm

why exactly ?

Maybe ... I'm not sure how well the model performance is for those specific facet regions/ways in which these cyclones formulate - so if they are latching onto anything now, I'm not an authority on anything. I just know the climate regions. I mean ... a front meandering down there and book-ending a low that starts going out of control is bit different causally/physically in the models than a CV wave kiting westward along the 15th parallel ... couple K east of the Windwards. Different atmospheric kinematics. I will say, ...I was singularly impressed with the handling of Lorenzo in the models... particularly the Euro! It flagged that thing closing off and deepening smartly some six days prior to it emerging off the coast of Sierra Leone. No problem - nailed it. Actually the other guidance latched on early too... just happen to notice the Euro first so not sure who/what really gets the trophy. But this has been true in recent seasons... We're probably ... oh somewhere in the 50% success for spin-rate vs phantoms ...compared to back in the 1990s - you didn't dare enter a cumulus cloud into the modeling grids or you'd wipe islands off the face of the Earth. Seems the models have improved overall with genesis points... That said, yeah...I've been noticing a tendency for cyclonic curvature between the Gulf and Bermuda.. I'm also noticing - as I discussed elsewhere - this propensity for over-top high pressure to spread ESE from Canada through NE and the lower Maritimes.. That preponderant activity is putting enhanced baroclinicity and enhanced easterly trades in general into that same region. These are not altogether bad omens for development prospect so maybe keep and eye on things.

"September remember; October all-over" ... it was in a folklore reference in the "American Weather Almanac" This is the Opal time of year. Home growns, as it were... Things to watch for are 'book-end' lows... That's when fronts meander vestigial signatures of convergence into the Gulf latitudes and off the SE U.S. coast ... These regions can fester and close off circulations..probably somewhat hybrid at first when weak, but then their cores go purer soon after. Altho, Opal's a bad example. It's origin might have been a tropical wave in the Caribbean ..or perhaps some ejected perturbation off N. S/A...

Yeeeah... if you'll indulge me for a moment ...that (bold) is the "bargainers" saying that. There are those still in the earlier denial phase - if one accepts the 'post-mortem stages of recovery' metaphor to describe this climate change reticence. I mean... it's still using historical facts to try and justify an inaction going forward - which is technically in the denial..but is also engaging the debate now, which is why it is bargaining. Otherwise, it would be just denial with raised hands. It's a step in the right direction. There's all that... but there's also some poor erudition in diplomacy back-draft consequence from those early years of Neolithic incompetence/bombasting the impending doom ... That's a separate sort of issue that is spanning mutliple generations ... which means it now has a cultural "virtual institutional" root ... great! That makes it harder. It goes something like this, ' ...It's gotta be bullshit because it was bullshit in my parent's time and they're now 80 years old and doing fine.' Also, look harder - there are reams of papers out there that use coring samples and other forensic sciences, to then break matters down to molecular chemistry ... in the areas of/for paleoclimate and palegeology advancing studies .. I mean come on

Right - 'disarray' is the new thing.. ... The paradigm has changes men and women, and that new model is uncertainty. The following is op ed: This particular emerging aspect of GW is rendering the old reliances more invalid. All seasonal ( btw, separate topic, but one that annoys me...) outlooks are a fool's endeavor if one ignores the neutering-of-ENSO-idea-out of hand. And no, it is not 'entirely' neutered, just that it's efficacy is reducing in present era going forward. I've already seen a bevy winter outlooks applying that same old mantra/modis operendi ... Isaac Asimov'ing these fantastically well-written ...but ultimately pointless ENSO -reliant seasonal outlooks. Unless that f'er is some kinda deep tissue (+) or (-) 3 SDs... it ain't doin' shit. There will be times when aspects [ coincidentally ] look more so ( and we'll field pride-posts and publications taking credit ) or less ( and we'll field "no one got it right" ), in either case, like it is supposed to have behaved otherwise? This really got started back in the super Nino, this awakening to the lowering effectiveness of the relative ENSO states. That El Nino event was historic in proportion - the effects/affects as noted and papered in the years since have described a disproportionately tame impact from that beast. And last year's more modest yet noted warm anomalies ... waited unusually late to register in the atmosphere, but impact meaning also secondarily was reduced.

Mm .. you know, it's not a bad way to look at that Scott - and I agree firstly; there's definitely an air ( puns are free of charge btw ) of cool ENSO bias to these appeals ... subtle at times, more coherent at others where that's like a base-line pattern. That, despite the ENSO being neutral mild? This hearkens to recent papers regarding the Hadely Cell expansion ( probably getting to be a broken record from me, I know...but unfortunately, it's true ). Last year, it took very late into the winter before the atmosphere even began to exhibit it was even responding to the on-going, low-amplitude warn ENSO of the time - and this was noted through out the early to mid winter weekly publications by NCEP. In fact, the turn of phrase in that sentence I just wrote may even be paraphrasing one I once read ( now that I think back). This "delay" response thing ... it's because the "gradient triggers" are moving relative to historical precedence ( I believe ..); such that modest ENSO warm(cool) regimes may not be as important to the pattern in winter, because the coupled state of the ocean-atmosphere is changing the forcing as it terminates through the R-wave distribution at mid latitudes... blah blah-blah give a pistol head, I know. Anyway, I wonder if that NINA-esque thing might actually be sort of what happens when there is lowering/no input, thru gradient weakening - just a circumstance we haven't seen because up until some 15 or so years ago - prior to that approximate range there always was that input. Fascinating... This winter could be interesting. I think the -AO multi-decade stuff ( and the PDO/AMO are also correlating to -EPO/-NAO in support ) has legs. Doesn't mean it'll exert at all times of course. f* it could backseat ...just in time screw this winter, come back to haunt next summer, then wait until that next winter.. But it's lurking. The ENSO events ( in my mind ) have to layout in larger total SD in a coupled- GW atmosphere, where is causing the gradients inside the Hadely Cell latitudes to weaken by the homogenized elevation of heights It's not something that is very obvious on charts -either. We can't just go over to the D8-10 anomalies on the PSU E-Wall rendering and expect to see that circumstantially at lower latitudes around the hemisphere. It's a probably a sensi/discrete math.

Super-impose that surface layout under that H 500 ... the ridge seems it should have prevented a frontal position that far S extending midriff to intense BD structure over the Mid Atlantic. This has been an oddity playing out since April (really). It has prevented eastern U.S. from getting the European headlines going, ...keeping our departures tepid. I find that fascinating, because it is a cool surface anomaly "relative to the pattern." The pattern has looked to support above normal the majority of the way; perhaps the aforementioned relativity/bias has masked. Mid levels appear to have been warmer in total anomaly relative to the surface verification. That ridge up there would support 90+ clear to Buffalo but, these giant high pressures and or just inhibition for fronts getting N despite the mid levels is a real phenomenon in my mind. I strongly suspect one that is rooted in the -AO preponderant phase state that's also been characterizing the summer and so far autumn. I believe it has kept the westerly's/jet more active than normal, as well ..suppressed S. Confluence episodes in the means then ejecting east through the N/A quadrature create surface pressure anomalies...that in near equal measure ( spatially) cut/exert underneath these ridge-rims from the N. These features were not evidence at all times..no. Just that this tendency to ablate heat getting to the 40th parallel, in this unusual, larger spatial way in general has aided in keeping our summer temperatures down, if however concealed that truth is behind the empirical averages. I wonder if this longer termed idiosyncrasy continues deeper into the autumn - ..

It's a surface analysis that really almost should not be like that, not when considering the 500 mb layout ( using the 00z EPS initialization)

Very spring-like surface analysis this morning ...

Euro's not far from a Bahama Blue pattern there D 8.5 -10 ... In fact, it is really for about 12 hours before the N-S oriented boundary squeezes through but those heights are mighty high out there E of CC/S of NS and with the blocking TUTT near the 55th longitude, it's not a far stretch to image that front slowing down further in future runs. Predicated on the assumption that these major players are actually approximal -

mm... I think it worth exploring it a bit. It's been a topic in the past... ( I expanded on that )

"Hopefully no snow" ? LOL - Yeah... doesn't seem to portend, or end too well for winters when snow in October seems to mean "all-over" before it even begins, ha. Oh, we're supposed to know it doesn't mean anything. We're just being paranoid as winter enthusiasts. And as others string together statistics to show us all why ( 'don't worry; doesn't mean nothing') existentially it desperately seems to mean the winter is doomed, regardless. I think it is possible that the years it snowed in October that didn't proceed into a subjectively good winter, might just stick out more painfully so ( probably some truth to that..) However, objectively ( or trying to be so...) I've always found the stats to have two problems: One, sample size is too small. Since the era of early snow chances kicked in - circa, 2000, there's only occurred ( I think ) 7 Octobers when/where either it was a flurries/packing pellets under virga-burst CAA cumulous, or synoptic slush. That's not a big number when there's been 200 million years of eastern Two, statistics will gladly be interpreted as not meaning anything' Why? Preservation of course... it preserves the unadulterated probability of a good winter, regardless of the preceding October. That may be true, anyway...but it also strikes me as bargaining a bit, because there's not that many omissions about the smallness of the sample size, either, which means it is unlikely to be a fair adjudication of the data - just going out and finding reasons to protect the drug shipments - hahaha. Seriously, I think we are in a tendency for early cool shots because of the expanding Hadley Cell associated with global warming, the PDO... or perhaps ( if not likely ) some combination of both. It's probably counter-intuitive for some, but... warmth does imply ridging. And the Pacific Basin is warm; it may be screwing with the World's early season(s) R-wave typology - in other words, making it unusually steep in western Canada. There's a short window right at the early part of N. Hemisphere transition seasons, where the NE Pacific is favored to ridging because of the latent heat imbalance. That means -EPOs and early cold shots and ever year we've seen these early blue Octobers it's been like that with -EPO or pulses therein.. Project a bit forward and then the more base-line pattern emerges ... probably more independent of that transient forcing that took place earlier on. So that sort of backs me into defending the 'cherry statisticians'

Probably more for the random thought thread but ... when faced with such alarming and incontrovertible evidence ...delivered in the above cinema like that, the production value in terms of drama/ magnitude I feel is necessary for an entirely apathetic society that doesn't appreciate/respect or "believe" ( because of the specter is too unbelievable for tenability ). And the latter aspect in that parenthetical, it seems to be proving an unavoidable first responder tact. It's almost like a longer protracted/staggered variation of the post-morem phasing. First denial, eventually leads to anger then bargaining ... The tenor of present seems to be somewhere between those three.

Yes Menfeld! ...apologies; I didn't see your post before submitting my own missive, else I would have responded directly to that one you made. It's directly was I was referencing in mine. As well, Don, agreed, and it's more than merely plausible, https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/WCAS-D-13-00059.1 ..is an article that I found to be fairly comprehensive in elucidating the many terrestrial factors out side of purely geopolitical distinctions that fed into Syria upheaval.

1 The short answer? The same way. ENSO (warm)(cool) phases are a 'climate cyclic' - and climate is inherently defined by ( events/n-events ). Particularly in the summer, when eddy forcing is more dictated by local scaled ( both time and space ) ephemeral anomalies, SS stressing can cause transient index topographies - but, when the autumn's kick the gradients in and the flows become for structurally defined those break down and the longer term residence re-emerges/gets exposed. 2 ..Approaching? most likely ... There? not likely ... Kinda of how to look at it. 3 Veerrry carefully - haha. I like qualification tactics because they are valid? One should mention their caveat emptors when discussing findings/foresight - that's more true to the scientific theme, anyway, because even Einstein said "Theory" within his title of General Relativity - even though at scales above Quantum Mechanics ... the rules that precipitate out of his tensor analysis' are incontrovertibly clad and he could have said, General "God am I smart, my way or the highway" Relativity. 4 Absolutely yes!

This is extremely important frame-work exposure of the crisis... Species migration will/has be a Humanity issue just as is for any other life form that necessarily moves from areas of harm to areas less so .. impelled to do so by their very instilled/instinct to survive. The destablization of the Baltic region and the recent refugee flux event over the last 10 years, was not just geopolitically motivated - as some scholarly papers available to general consumption of the web-browser discuss, and are available if one bothers to go and find. They were experiencing ecological failures on a multi-year scale, already on-going, such that the fateful arrival of the aforementioned duress becomes more like 'straw that broke the camels back.' It is what it is in a vacuum but .. part of the facets of the culture anti-CC narrative is the lack of culpable evidence that it is effecting/affecting - when there are evidence of this and have been for a decade or more in actuality and needs to be presented and spotlighted.

There's unusual eddy forcing all over the place because of the modulating impact of the expanded Hadley Cell into the Ferrell latitudes ... That's a large anomaly that's greater than single-seasonal and more a reflection of the state of the planetary system. This causing anomalies compared to the previous classic systemic model, and [ likely ] obscuring the "real" state of the oceanic indices due to those stresses. Things may look IOD (-)(+) but be ephemeral ...? They are responding to local time-scale disruptions that are part of that larger modulation. They would be faux presentation of states ... or, if they are real and integrating, it may not be readily coherent if they carry the same forcing weight because they are not differentiating the same way as they did in the previous model. A ballooned(ing) Hadley repositions the gradation of heights at mid latitudes. This effects a slew aspects in the on-going, longer term eddy forcing around the Hemispheres. I just think we cannot be as ENSO reliant at relative measures/observations, to known or suspected results, when those Climatologies are based upon a different era when these macro physical states of the environment dictated a different interrelationship among these various fields - or is strongly hypothetically supported as being different via convention academia and a-priori experience as to how this shit works.

Don posted excerpts from a letter to the U.N. general several posts ago... This caught my eye immediately - this particular sentiment, which I've heard repeated in the "cost vs consequence" mantra quite often and it's irritating. "Current climate policies pointlessly, grievously undermine the economic system, putting lives at risk in countries denied access to affordable, continuous electrical power...." It's wrong for multiple reason. One, it is not pointless - the fact that the author of this sentence doesn't see the point, or has difficulty with connecting with the truth and reality of what climate crisis actually means does not mean the point does not exist. It simply means... he/she is either lacking the capacity to see it, or [ perhaps ] is/are too predisposed to other ideologies, so much so that they block the perception of truth and reality in the first place. Two, Tough shit! Related to one, this "concern" is rooted in a mentality that either doesn't understand and/or appreciate the magnitude of what the f climate "apocalypse" means, or is incapable to perceptions that take the "longer view". Clue: There is no economy in a future that cannot support an economy - thus, the author(s) question and concern is rendered void and irrelevant. I mean, this idiot cares about the economics and guess what... economics is based on a human construct. I conceit of value that is just a shared delusion - turn out the lights. It's gone. It's not, gravity or electromagnetism, or chemistry rules of nature that we all are compelled to abide by or we die. Economy, and the ways and means by which humanity stuffs meaning and value into it, is an abuse of the former natural laws - think long and hard about that. Those abuses, leading to the consequences we now face, are consequences precipitating out of bad practices before fully exploring what it would mean to do the things history has done - that will mean the demise of economy as we know it. These people among us ... it just begins suspect they are genetically lacking some make-up in the very wiring of their minds and are incapably connect the dots - ..little frustration here, admittedly. but Jesus - In a whimsy euphemism, we've ignored the gravity of our actions and went about profligate chemistry, and now... we have an electromagnetic problem. When I read this opening statement by the author, they lost all credibility in my mind and I can't abide - it actually makes it difficult to even want to endure reading further.

There may be a geo-physical premise for not including ... in that the conclusions are not fully vetted. There are arguments that have to be ruled out - believe me! I am not of the denier ilk so please do not couch me in with that stat. However, objectively two aspect leap out at me - suppositional on my part ( admittedly ) but I haven't seen any seminal work in either area ( so excuse me if it exists : Firstly, tropical cyclone measuring was always an estimate art. The Dvorak technique ( including improved standards therein) have been applied for estimating cyclones for decades, but even the polished methods have deficiencies. Human error gets in the way for example... Perhaps not hugely so, but minor ... minor variations due to unavoidable, inherent subjectivity leads to inconsistencies. Additionally, standards and operator skill are also variant from one oceanic basin to the next which augments uncertainties. There is this "CNN" system developed in recent years, which is the abbreviation for "conventional convolution neural network" which sounds like something out of a dystopian AI thriller frankly but it is what it is... Anyway, these techniques were not in existence as recent as 30 years ago. Andrew 1992 was a cyclone originally maxed at Category 4. It wasn't until reanalysis confirmed what most first hand accounts suspected *( per anecdotal ) that 135 mph was insufficient to appropriately characterize. This was in part/indirectly supported when measured building/architectural science indications were then integrated in reanalysis. It is now a Category 5 posthumously. Considering today's various satellite techniques and different storm penetrating technologies, it is unlikely a present day Andrew would be assessed as Category 4. Andrew is just one example where/when solid-state physics was able to assist in exposing both the reality of that cyclone intensity, but also exposes that the old techniques of assessing storm intensity were plausibly insufficient. Therefore, it is entirely possible that some percentage of the entire 'upper strength of the strongest' assumption may in fact, in at least partial, actually be an artifact for better detection. Secondly, in a Meteorological perspectives it is not abundantly clear that a GW atmosphere should immediately connote stronger storms. That's certainly romantic but the verdict is out on that - physical mathematics. The tropical sounding ( vertical structures of temperature, humidity at sigma levels) has to have a certain thermodynamic gradients - that much is known. Gradient powers everything in nature. If you exist, you exist because something is restoring.That's how all dimensions of nature work really. In fact, you're capable of reading this sentence because of the electrolytic potential that exists in the neuro fabric of your mind. Without those electrical potentials between (-) sodium and (+) potassium, you don't have life. In atmospheric phenomenon, variations in PV=NRT across a domain space ( in three-dimensions) is the gradient that makes all weather happen. For hurricanes, those gradients produced via saturation ... where unstable pseudo-adiabatic vertical sounding results and keeps the lift going, which sucks in more torridity from the ocean surface and on and so on.. Which is why you need a steady source of hot ocean to keep the machinery going. If we follow that simplified model to its logic ends, in a warming world, if it warms at all levels evenly, these thermodynamic gradients do necessarily change - if the gradient stays the same. Hurricanes are not intrinsically stronger. In order for the GW upward intensity to be outright causally linked, the tropical cyclone model -related gradients have to increase. Thus, it's not abundantly clear the tropical delta(PV=NRT)'s is really more culpable than merely better assessment described above. Once the better part of this latter science gets underway... along the way it would also have to take into consideration the fact that Global tropical cyclone intensity/storm frequency, also has a periodicity.

Well light dawns on marble heads ... https://phys.org/news/2019-09-convince.html In my own proclivities to lament the short-comings of the climate -crisis forefather communication's shimmering gallery of what not to do ( go about attacking the fundamental scaffold of society's make up ), I'm also quotable as mentioning concerns to that/this affect. Those mistakes of yesteryear started this chain-work, where earlier defensive posturing led inexorably to a culture of denialism, and carte-blanche to be creative in the way people go about doing it because there's no moral culpability/sense of consequence for actually submitting one to a delusion and believing it... It's as much a psychological problem ( integrating sociologically) as a geo-physical one now, set into motion decades ago by bad diplomacy and dissemination of an impending crisis. And it's consequentially very bad now, because this is a present day reality where we have to move quicker, than the time it will take to convince the world it is in trouble. The earlier warning tact ...it really created a different sort of climate crisis, one that is just as pernicious and seemingly insurmountable as the environmental one, itself ... and thus, there two wars going on: one against ignorance and enlightenment about the ways and means of profligate Humanity, and the disparate cultural design against that enlightenment - the latter of which is an ingrained cultural climate of distrust and vitriol ( to mention, morality ), one that is multi-generational too. To be fair, not all of which is the climate-frontiersmen fault, either - there seems to be an entirely separate post -Industrial Revolution - ramification that is timed exquisitely badly but I won't get into that. It's not a novel for anyone of us to have mentioned this concern at the various "water cooler depots of the social-media," less than compendium ...no. Most know ...or have suspected for some time, that this is a sociological issue. However, the problem was not going away? And over the years, we are not seeing a very sophisticated ( if at all ) gap/diplomatic control measure being adopted by disseminators - other than misinformation and misuse for a special interest group's gain, but that's another digression.. There needs to be art in research exposure to the masses.

The EPO has wended its way into a negative phase state ... that’ll pretty much be the ballgame for the Alaskan sector as that’s a warm signal up there, and modeled to persist for the next week ...meanwhile an early cold plume and upslope snow event becoming increasingly more likely in the lower latitude Canadian high country /interior PAC NW ... as immediate downstream of there is a typical mass balanced loading pattern - classic teleconnector correlation ... There’s been a recurring theme over the last 15 years for unusually early cold and potential’s for snow in the middle latitudes of North America…very early. I believe it’s part of the pacific heat budget and the swelling of the Hadley cell that’s been noted/papered. This is forcing the AB phase of the Pacific basin ... thus intrusion of NP/EP blocking. This resulting in organized R-wave geometries that are unusually proficient cold deliveries earlier in transition seasons.

Yeah I was reading about that a few months ago. It's another observation in a cornucopia that suggest unanticipated accelerations - to put it nicely. Changes are simply outpacing many model-designs of when/where we would begin noticing specific warming effects amid specific systems - quite possibly because the "Kevin Baconism" of the larger gestalt and sensitive transmitted relationships are just unknown. It is ... disconcerting. I feel - personally - with growing conviction, that there could be "jolt" events. Scale and degree of "cataclysm" to be determined, but short duration adjustments that really didn't have much hope of being well predicted because they are/were brought about by previously unanticipated emerging "synergistic" feed-backs. I read a paper once about the basal flow rates of Antarctic causing the land-based aspect of the western ice sheet to accelerate well beyond climate models, and something similar in Greenland may already be taking place. If these thing happen, then...relative too, even accelerate further - no one can say that can't happen, when acceleration is already empirical and that's pretty much adios muchachos global coastal environments when/if land based ice lets go en masse.

Fortunately for the world ... there is no logical correlation whatsoever - even in a politicized climate debate, which in its self is absurd to begin with .. - where Nazi-ism has any iota of relationship in the mathematical justification vs denial of the greater climate debate/truth... That entire exchange (abv) could not be more patently absurd, and is entirely contrived nonsense. come on man... is anyone in here modestly intelligent -